Ashley Wagner and the Olympics
- Thread starter coolboogie22
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- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
As would 999 people out of 1000 if you were asked to answer that question (no need to point out who the 1 other would be). The degree or the prospects of change for the future might vary to whomever you asked, but the answer would not.
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- Apr 2, 2014
Olympics aren't just about #winning. They aren't the World Championships. People are acting like the US was risking a 3rd spot at worlds sending Mirai over Ashley.
IRT Ashley's spins. They're bad. Spinning isn't just about position, it's also about speed (and acceleration), centering, and being able to mix in different positions to get levels and GoE. A skater who places where Ashley does in world/Olympic competition should be showing better spins than she does (and jumps too). It's actually kind of baffling (IMO) that she does as well as she does given what she displays (technically), but those days may be close to being over.
Thankfully.
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- Apr 2, 2014
So, if Wagner had managed to slightly rotate her 3F a bit more and beat Gold at Worlds, instead of losing by a miniscule 1.42 points, all of a sudden your opinion would be changed? (Not to mention, Gold's PCS in the SP and FS were much higher than they should have been.) Wagner beat her by over 5 points in the FS, and even Edmunds beat her in the FS. Both her teammates beat Gold by over 5 points technically -- Wagner's TES in the FS: 63.64, Edmunds' TES in the FS: 66.39, Gold's TES in the FS: 58.58. Gold's PCS (even inflated) was less than a point higher than Wagner's in the FS, too. Wagner also outscored Gold in PCS in the SP, even with an error. I agree that Gold has the edge at this point, but "clear cut" should refer to things like Chan being the clear cut #1 over Reynolds, or Kostner being the clear cut Italian #1 over Marchei, or Asada being the clear cut Japanese #1 over Murakami and Suzuki (even if she lost Nationals to them).
Saying Gold is the clear cut US #1 is like saying Sui/Han is the clear cut Chinese #1 pair. Clear cut means definitively and with little doubt. A 1.42 point margin of victory isn't "clear cut", and it certainly doesn't guarantee that if Gold and Wagner competed at this very moment Gold would without any doubt come out on top (even if the past few results have been over Wagner).
Also, if you're going to deride Wagner for "coming only 7th at both Olympics and Worlds and never being in even remote contention for a medal", Gold herself wasn't even close to a medal in Sochi, and was well off the podium in Saitama (Wagner was less points from the Saitama podium than Gold was from the Sochi podium, btw). And at least Wagner stayed on her feet in Sochi and Saitama, which can't be said for Gold who had at least one fall (and often other errors) in all her international freeskates last season.
You honestly consider a skater who fell in every international competition last season, and who has yet to win any international competition, to be the clear cut, without-a-doubt, US #1... think about that.
The issue is that she cannot touch Gold if she's anything close to clean, and even when Gold has an implosion these days, she can't beat her.
I think that says more than the fact that she was "just behind" Gold. Gracie actually needs to "Wagner" a major competition for the judges to let Wagner pass her, these days.
If Gold had skated the way she skated at Nationals or Sochi, she likely would have beaten Wagner by 10+ points in the FS, and likely would have won the Bronze medal at Worlds.
With the way the International Judges are on Gracie's bandwagon these days, compared to Wagner, USFS would be dumb to try to flip them at Nationals barring a major disaster from Gold. the numbers simply don't agree with them, and the only thing that kept Wagner above Gold even in 2013 were her inflated PCS scores (Gold was 1st year senior so the judges kept her PCS down, the same way they do all the newbies), which have largely plateaued, thankfully.
Barring major issues, I expect both Gold and Edmunds to have cemented themselves past Ashley in the next two years, and by 2018 she's going to have some major issues even making the Olympic team, if she's even a factor by then (that is a bit too far to look at and consider).
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- Jan 25, 2013
Okay, so would you say Sotnikova being the current national champ and has since easily beaten Lipnitskaia in Sochi is the clear cut Russian #1?
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- Feb 17, 2010
Regardless of whether Gracie is "just" #1 or a "clear cut" #1, she is #1 due to being the highest placing American in three consecutive important events (Nats, Olys, and Worlds). The PCS edge that Ashley had appears to be gone so she is going to have to match Gracie on TES to win. This is not going to happen unless Gracie makes errors, because a clean Gracie is going to score north of 70/135 with the international PCS she was getting at the end of last season.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Oh, I agree Gracie is the #1 US skater right now (even if World rankings show otherwise), but clear cut #1 US skater, I disagree.
You say "unless Gracie makes errors"... but that's the thing, she makes errors - at least 1 fall in every international program last season. I even think Polina has the potential to beat her next season.
It's like how every knew Kostner could medal in Sochi if she went clean, but due to her inconsistency, most people had counted her out. You can't go by a skater's potential clean competition score if they haven't skated a clean competition ever or very rarely. Do you think Gold is going to score 70+135 in every competition next season? Or even half of them?
Wagner herself could score north of 70 if she goes clean in the SP (at the GPF she scored 68), and could score north of 135 as well if she goes clean (at Worlds 2014, without the URs she would have done so - 2.5 points lost on the 2A+3T< and about 2 points lost on the 3F<+2T+2T, plus she'd get slightly higher PCS with a clean skate). But, based on the past season, Wagner's ability to skate a completely clean FS is currently about as reliable as Gold's. That's why there's no clear cut #1. Obviously on paper, Gold should beat Wagner every time, but that's depending on whether she skates well, which isn't always the case.
Had Wagner in the SP managed a 3F+3T<, or even played it safe and did a simple 3F+2T in her SP, instead of 3F+3T<<, she'd have been 5th ahead of Gold.
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- Feb 17, 2010
I guess I disagree with you there. If both are clean, Gracie wins and if both lose the same amount of GOE, Gracie wins. To me that's an indication of a clear cut #1. That a clean Ashley can beat a Gracie with multiple errors doesn't change that IMO.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Saying Gold is a clear cut #1 over Wagner if she hypothetically skates clean is like saying Adelina is a clear cut #1 over Julia (because if they both skate clean Adelina will win), or saying Mao is a clear cut #1 over Yu Na, because she will always defeat Yu Na if she has a clean SP + FS with 8 triples.
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- Jun 16, 2010
No, that is exactly why Gold IS the clear cut #1. For Ashley to even have a chance to beat her Ashley has to skate clean and Gold has to make mistakes. Your worlds example you hang onto you for all its worth in fact only proves that point. Ashley never skates clean herself either. The end.
I love how you focus non stop on only worlds, and ignore Nationals and the Olympics where finished a large number of points and several places ahead of Wagner. So in their 3 big meetings to end the year Gold won all 3, and only 1 of the 3 was relatively close, and Gold is not the solid U.S #1 now? Your constant what ifs about Wagner missing one jump, when it was one of her best competitions ever, and when Gold missed a whole bunch and still came out ahead, as the basis of your argument for Gold not being a solid #1 all since she "could have" (but didnt) lose to Wagner at worlds, are comical.
You also harp on how Gold missed chances to medal at the Olympics and worlds, especialy worlds. Atleast she had a chance to medal, especialy at worlds. Ashley had no chance to medal at either event, as the scores made quite clear. That also is why Gold is now the clear U.S #1.
Thank you, Mathman. Especially the last part (lol, expecting everyone to go clean, even in the ladies' field).Back to the topic, I think Gracie very much is USA #1 right now. Future prospects is another matter. I think Ashley will have a more difficult time going forward, but Gracie's success isn't assured either. I feel like a lot of her hype is manufactured because of how much the US needs a star. I can see her rise to the Worlds podium... but I can see her being yet another "leading lady that goes nowhere," like so many others after Michelle and Sasha retired. Time will tell.
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- Feb 17, 2010
Well, at this point it's more than hypothetical, isn't it? Gracie beat Ashley the last three times they have faced each other. To compare that to Julia/Adelina (each of whom won at least two of their match-ups this season) or Mao (who hasn't beaten Yuna in quite awhile) is comparing apples to oranges.
I don't really think Gracie had a realistic chance of winning at medal at Worlds or the Olympics. She was 4th in Sochi, but she was pretty far behind the podium contenders and she would've been no higher than 5th if Mao had skated a semi-respectable SP. I don't think her skating is significantly worse than Sotnikova's and Lipnitksaya's (they have better spins, Gracie has better jumps), but the Russian boost was major. At Worlds there was no Kim, but there was still Lipnitskaya and unless Gracie had skated cleanly in both programs, she probably wasn't going to place ahead of Yulia. Mao and Carolina were so far ahead of most others after the SP that the podium was almost a foregone conclusion, even with Kostner's messy FP.
I do think that this year is a big year for her. She can definitely get on to the podium with Mao and Carolina out and Yuna retired. It'll still be tough with Adelina coming back (lawd, her PCS are going to be like they were in Sochi all the time thanks to her OGM boost), Yulia in the hunt, and Radionova/Pogorilaya trying to improve, but IMO, her odds in 2015 are much better than they were this season.
ETA: I think Ashley's gone as high as she can go without better footwork, faster spins, and a reliable/ ratified 3-3 combo in both programs.
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- Jun 16, 2010
Mao has never done a clean SP + a LP with 8 triples, probably would never do it even if she competes another 50 times (and I love Mao to death), and at Sochi her LP with 8 triples was still placed behind Kim and 3 women in fact (absurd Sochi ladies event judging aside). She hasnt in fact beaten Kim since 2010 now, and her last ever clean LP at that very event she scored her last win over Kim (2010 worlds) was still placed behind faulty Kim's LP. Sotnitkova and Lipnitskaya have gone back and forth all year. The straw grasping is getting ridiculous. Those examples in no way parallel Gold vs Wagner. Comparing someone who hasnt beaten their arch rival in 4 years and probably has to do almost a fantasy competition to beat her, to someone who has beaten their main rival at 3 major events in a row in 3 months and simply has to do a regular skate to safely come out ahead. Not to mention the very idea Wagner could serve as a replacement figure for Kim and Julia, two women who often skate totally clean which Wagner never does, and still give the parallel rivalries example some basis.
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- Nov 19, 2013
With the Gracie vs. Ashley thing, I do think Gracie is the clear #1 right now, even though I'm an Ashley fan and personally prefer her skating. Ashley really set herself back with her nationals showing and I think being slightly underscored (imo) at Worlds may have had something to do with that. And Gracie is being scored pretty high. So, I guess I'll just wait and see what they do this season. Both ladies had coaching changes and ups and downs last season, but this year we should truly be able to see how each performs and how they stack up against each other over the entire season.
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- Jan 25, 2013
But Gold shouldn't have beaten Wagner or Suzuki at Worlds... her PCS was inflated (I mean, look at her Worlds FS compared to her team FS and the PCS difference... and 70 points for an SP where her loop and axel were tight... right).
Given Gold's inconsistency, I would never bet money on her to win over Wagner the way I would bet money on Chan to always win over Reynolds, or Kostner over Marchei, or V/T over S/K.
Anyways, we'll see next season how "clear cut" Gold is over the other US skaters, not just Wagner but Polina too. Perhaps Gold, obviously being such a clear cut US #1, will finally be able to win the US Classic instead of losing to another second-tier US skater.
I think Gracie is USA No. 1 no doubt about that. But it doesn't change the fact that Gracie has performed well-below her potential or to the technical content she has on paper. I like some people are using the fact that "she had a chance to medal" as a way to insult Ashley (because she didn't).
But the fact is Gracie had a chance at Worlds and blew it. And she did it with Carolina and Akiko opened the door wide for her. Instead, she opened the door for Anna P. to pass her. Yes, you can argue end-of-season tiredness. But that didn't seem to affect Julia L. who has competed in far more competitions this season than Gracie.
The fact she did not seize an opportunity is a bit of a concern for me. I'd like to see her with some more killer instinct next season. For all her lack of skill, Ashley does not hold back -- she seizes opportunities, hence my reason for not underestimating her.
But the fact is Gracie had a chance at Worlds and blew it. And she did it with Carolina and Akiko opened the door wide for her. Instead, she opened the door for Anna P. to pass her. Yes, you can argue end-of-season tiredness. But that didn't seem to affect Julia L. who has competed in far more competitions this season than Gracie.
The fact she did not seize an opportunity is a bit of a concern for me. I'd like to see her with some more killer instinct next season. For all her lack of skill, Ashley does not hold back -- she seizes opportunities, hence my reason for not underestimating her.
I agree. Gold blew an EXCELLENT chance at a world medal this year. But as pointed out earlier, she'd hardly be the first one to do so.
Let's not forget, however, that Wagner has blown opportunities presented to her as well. 2012 was HER best shot at a world medal, especially after defeating Asada at 4CCs...but then she went belly up in the SP as usual. Her shot was gone before she even had a chance to take it, really. And, of course, this year's Nationals. She wouldn't have made Sochi if USFS went by the book and sent top 3.
So...bottom line is I would trust neither of them to skate if my life depended on it.
I get what is being said, though - Gold doesn't have the same "mindset of attack" that Wagner did at worlds. But even Wagner herself was missing that for at least the first half of the season, lest we forget...
Let's not forget, however, that Wagner has blown opportunities presented to her as well. 2012 was HER best shot at a world medal, especially after defeating Asada at 4CCs...but then she went belly up in the SP as usual. Her shot was gone before she even had a chance to take it, really. And, of course, this year's Nationals. She wouldn't have made Sochi if USFS went by the book and sent top 3.
So...bottom line is I would trust neither of them to skate if my life depended on it.
I get what is being said, though - Gold doesn't have the same "mindset of attack" that Wagner did at worlds. But even Wagner herself was missing that for at least the first half of the season, lest we forget...
I think Gracie only had a chance at winning a medal at Worlds if one of the top 3 was a mess and she was perfect or close to it. If they'd all skated cleanly or close to cleanly, no way she beats any of Mao, Carolina, or Lipnitskaya for a spot on the podium. As it is, she was fortunate that Kostner left the door open and that Suzuki skated a poor free program. The fact that she still wasn't close to 3rd in that scenario, IMO, means that her chances weren't that great to begin with. Also, lest we forget that Gracie has done 2 or 3 clean LPs (2013 Nationals, 2013 WTT, 2014 Olympic Team Event) in the last 2 seasons. It's not like she skates the way she did in the Olympic Team Event frequently.
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