Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Mrs. P said:

Ashley's weakness has never been a lack of attack -- earlier this season notwithstanding -- it's always been that she wanted it too much that she psyched herself out. That was the case in 2012.

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Yup. Precisely. And she wanted the Olympics so bad at 2014 Nationals that it got into her head and messed her up.

Actually I don't think Wagner has proven to be a good "pressure" skater either. To her credit, she avoids completely falling apart (unlike Gold), but she gets tentative and makes silly errors that she shouldn't be making.

I feel like Gracie has the opposite problem. For some reason, the prospect of being a top contender seems to play with her mind a bit. I remember an interview where she said that after winning pewter as a Novice in 2010, she felt a lot of pressure to be at the top, which resulted (along with major growth spurt) in her not qualifying for Nationals the following year.

We saw that again at Skate Canada 2012, when she was totally taken aback by the amount of media attention she received.

And her interviews of late seem to indicate that she's feeling a little bit of that now that she's U.S. Champion. I think Frank has helped her greatly with her mindset, but it's clearly a journey and process at play here.

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Gold's real test is now. Until Nationals she was still very much in Wagner's shadow trying to break through to the top. Gold has been gaining some consistency (which is what enabled her to pass Wagner in the first place), but we saw her revert to her former self once a World medal was within reach. We'll have to see how she handles the GP season, but I think it will be a similar story at '15 Nationals and the pressure will prove to be too much for her.

Actually I don't think Wagner has proven to be a good "pressure" skater either. To her credit, she avoids completely falling apart (unlike Gold), but she gets tentative and makes silly errors that she shouldn't be making.

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You're right. However, pressure on her was much stronger than on Gracie Gold - Gracie was first at Nationals and, of cours, everybody was expecting much - but Ashley was just hated by some people. I saw all these films on YouTube - it was just awful, as if the 2014 Nationals were the only competition in the world during last 10 years.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

It was common sense that if any 3 of Julia/Kostner/Kim/Mao/Sotnikova all skated clean or close to clean, Gold would instantly be off the podium. So to rely on 3 top skaters bombing in order to medal and all 5 of these skaters bombing for Gold to win gold is quite a stretch.

Had Mao/Julia skated as well as at Worlds (which was a far greater likelihood than Gold going clean and the top 3 of Sotnikova/Kim/Kostner all bombing), she'd have been 6th. Lucky for Gold, Mao had a nightmare of an SP, and Julia was uncharacteristically poor in both the SP & LP, so she was "just off the podium", but a mile away from 3rd and a league away from 1st. Which is how it should have been... the top 3 were in a class of their own, and Gold/Wagner/etc. were simply also-rans (and Mao skating simply for redemption rather than a medal).

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I completely agree with you. Which is why I'm annoyed by news outlets hyping her as some gold contender. It's common sense for skating fans, but for the once-every-four-years viewers? They probably know Yuna and Mao and nobody else.

Gold did have the PR/momentum/politics that Suzuki and Wagner did not, but to expect the aforementioned five to bomb while Gold skated perfectly is such a long shot that they might as well as hype Wagner and Suzuki.

Sandpiper said:

I completely agree with you. Which is why I'm annoyed by news outlets hyping her as some gold contender. It's common sense for skating fans, but for the once-every-four-years viewers? They probably know Yuna and Mao and nobody else.

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Did it annoy you when people who'd only watched his viral Riverdance were saying "Jason will win in Sochi!" A lot of those people weren't even once-every-four-years people.

It made sense for the NBC to hype the National Champion as a medal contender. Because why would Americans watch if the NBC said outright "well actually none of our girls are going to even get close"?

Today NBC would probably ignore Olga Korbut and Nadia Comaneci.

karne said:

Did it annoy you when people who'd only watched his viral Riverdance were saying "Jason will win in Sochi!" A lot of those people weren't even once-every-four-years people.

It made sense for the NBC to hype the National Champion as a medal contender. Because why would Americans watch if the NBC said outright "well actually none of our girls are going to even get close"?

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Hyping Jason as a gold medal contender was very :scratch:. I don't think either of them should be hyped as gold medal contenders; even though I like Jason more than Gracie, him making the podium was even more unlikely. (I didn't come across 'Jason the potential Sochi Olympic champ' as often as Gracie-hype though). I say "annoying" meaning news agencies calling Gracie a gold medal contender--regular people, whether they're once-in-four-years watchers or not, can say what they wish. I may not necessarily agree, but Youtube comments on Jason's Riverdance video don't have the same responsibility as news agencies.

You're correct on the second part, but there's a lot of middle ground between "Gracie Gold, can she win gold?!?!" and "Nah, we have no chance in hell of making the podium. Bye bye ratings." It's fine to introduce the girls, their strengths and their weaknesses, and speculate if they can make a podium finish. (Gracie did come fourth, after all). But "Gracie Gold for gold!" is just misleading.

Also--and this doesn't go just for the US, but for other skating powerhouses as well--I wish we could all enjoy an event even when we don't have our own skater in the hunt. And perhaps, we should appreciate our skaters without needing to hype them as Olympic gold favourites. I don't need Jason Brown to win Olympic gold--I don't even need to think he should win Olympic gold--to enjoy Riverdance. Of course, these are just personal wishes rather than reality.

Sandpiper said:

Gold did have the PR/momentum/politics that Suzuki and Wagner did not, but to expect the aforementioned five to bomb while Gold skated perfectly is such a long shot that they might as well as hype Wagner and Suzuki.

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Exactly. It's stupid to say there was a realistic possibility of Gold skating clean and all 5 of her top competitors such that Gold actually managed to get gold. An extremely remote possibility sure (and the same goes for Suzuki/Wagner/Murakami winning gold), but not a realistic possibility. A "realistic possibility" shouldn't be contingent on something the skater has yet to do (deliver a clean competition) and something unlikely when it comes to her competitors (all 5 skating poorly enough to give Gold the win).

No harm comes from hyping up these skaters. Every insider and uberfan knew that Gracie had little chance at gold (and Jason none), but the hype is to increase viewership and draw more people in to watching the Olympics and figure skating.

^The problem is, I think it's misleading to people who aren't figure skating uberfans. There are many who watch during the Olympics only. I'm not against "hype" in the sense of "potential podium finish," but to label Gracie as a gold contender on par with Yuna, Mao, Carolina, and Yulia is poor journalism, imo. I think there are many ways to get people excited about, say, Jason (wonderful performer, young guy at his first Olympics with a bright future ahead, ect.) without labelling him as a gold contender.

Sandpiper said:

Gold did have the PR/momentum/politics that Suzuki and Wagner did not, but to expect the aforementioned five to bomb while Gold skated perfectly is such a long shot that they might as well as hype Wagner and Suzuki.

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Nobody "expected" it (and, again, they wouldn't have to "bomb" either). A contender is simply someone who has a relevant chance. It doesn't mean they have as high of a chance as someone else.

Wagner and Suzuki did not have a relevant chance. Their scoring potential was such that Yu-Na/Lipnitskaya/etc skating flawed would still beat them even if they skated just about the best they can...which is sadly what we saw happen with the scoring of Lipnitskaya vs. Wagner.

I think the point is that the American media over sells the US interest in the sport instead of marketing the sport itself at such a crucial time. Yeah, you'd hear mentions of Yulia very occasionally during post event coverage but they hype Americans and not the sport. In the long run it doesn't do much when you tune in and notice that a lot of the top players aren't American. I saw little mention of Yuna,Mao, or Caro during the "podium" wrap ups or whatever they called their shows leading up to and following events. It is like that with all sports unfortunately

The odd part of it all is that I saw far more interest and investment in Gracie than I did for Meryl/Charlie, who were the only real locks the USA had on podium. I get that ice dance is the niche sport, even in the greater sport of skating, but... Really? And the main hype I saw for M/C was probably because I live around the same area they do. It was... Disappointing, to say the least. :sarcasm:

Sam-Skwantch said:

I think the point is that the American media over sells the US interest in the sport.

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Oh, absolutely. Don't most countries, though?

Therein lies a big problem with the judging in this sport to begin with. Until people completely separate themselves from the notion of "country", there's always going to be superficial and incorrect decisions made just because of that.

Blades of Passion said:

Until people completely separate themselves from the notion of "country", there's always going to be superficial and incorrect decisions made just because of that.

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That pretty much sums it up. :disapp:

fleeting made a good point re: Meryl & Charlie. We Americans love our ice princesses, largely to the exclusion of all other disciplines, not to mention frequently failing to pay attention to the talent produced by other countries.

Blades of Passion said:

Nobody "expected" it (and, again, they wouldn't have to "bomb" either). A contender is simply someone who has a relevant chance. It doesn't mean they have as high of a chance as someone else.

Wagner and Suzuki did not have a relevant chance. Their scoring potential was such that Yu-Na/Lipnitskaya/etc skating flawed would still beat them even if they skated just about the best they can...which is sadly what we saw happen with the scoring of Lipnitskaya vs. Wagner.

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The point is, for Gold to have had a relevant chance, she needed to have showed capability to skate a clean competition SP + LP, and depended on 5 top skaters making huge errors. Given that she had fallen in every competition all year, the chances of Gold skating as best as she could were minimal. The same can be said for Kostner, who I'm sure many people would have said didn't have a relevant chance to win gold, because she had never delivered a clean competition. The difference was Kostner exceeded these expectations in Sochi with an unprecedented clean SP+LP, whereas Gold essentially met expectations (i.e. an improvement from her early season skates, but still with the expectable major error). What was more likely, Gold skating a clean SP + LP, or all of Kim/Asada/Kostner/Lipnitskaia/Sotnikova skating below their potential at the Olympics?

Going by your "logic" that a skater like Gold could have skated cleanly and everyone else bombed, thus allowing Gold to win, Suzuki very much had a "relevant chance". Had she skated as well as she did at Japanese nationals, she could have even come within striking distance of the podium if Kostner had made minor errors -- Suzuki would have certainly been ahead of Gold had both of them gone clean.

Obviously, my head isn't in the clouds, like you are with Gold, in thinking that Suzuki had a relevant chance to win had she gone clean, since it would have required several other top skaters to bomb, one of them being Kim who was likely to go clean or close to clean (even Kim with a fall beats a clean Gold). Also, if you're saying Gold could have hypothetically gone clean under different circumstances, the same goes for Mao hypothetically having done a much better SP... I would have expected Gold to skate a clean SP+LP wayyy before I would have expected Mao to have her 2nd-lowest SP of her career. Even if Mao skated her individual SP as she had in the team SP (with a 3A<<), she would have beaten Gold overall.

To suggest Gold had a "relevant chance" to beat Kim is as laughable as when you look at the actual results and see how much Kim actually did beat Gold by, and that's with Kim's PCS being held back, and Gold's PCS being bumped up 6 points for a FS with a fall, compared to the PCS she received in her clean team FS. Prior to the Olympics, Gold had never even cleared 190 points in total internationally. Everyone knows that Gold getting 205 points was a HUGE gift (I mean, her PCS was a point less than Asada, with essentially equal Interpretation scores ), that Carroll probably orchestrated for her after whining about her PCS in the team FS.

To suggest Gold had a chance to WIN after she lost the OGM by 19 points (which should have been more like 23-24 points difference, if her PCS were marked similarly to the team FS - heck, lower... if a clean FS gets 61 PCS, the same FS a week later with a fall should get less than 61 PCS, not 68)... I mean, did sky_fly win the lottery or something and you're trying to pander to her delusions?

LittleLotte29 said:

You're right. However, pressure on her was much stronger than on Gracie Gold - Gracie was first at Nationals and, of cours, everybody was expecting much - but Ashley was just hated by some people. I saw all these films on YouTube - it was just awful, as if the 2014 Nationals were the only competition in the world during last 10 years.

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Gracie was at her second Nationals and barring a mistake last year she would have won then too. She has proven to be a decent "redemption" skater. SP has been a major issue for her before Nationals, though.

I agree with Blades of Passion. The overemphasized of artistry is inaccurate in this scoring system and leads to people not even understanding what they're watching, even Uber fans. Artistry just isn't that important anymore. Technical ability dominates the score. You can feign artistry. You cannot feign 7 triples, level 4 StSq and spins, transitions, speed, etc.

Blades of Passion said:

Wagner and Suzuki did not have a relevant chance. Their scoring potential was such that Yu-Na/Lipnitskaya/etc skating flawed would still beat them even if they skated just about the best they can...which is sadly what we saw happen with the scoring of Lipnitskaya vs. Wagner.

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In Sochi Ashley still got better PCS. Her problem was that she had three jump elements that had -GOE, like Julia. Unlike Julia, Ashley cannot make up for errors with great spins. Even when Ashley earns the same level as Julia, she scores much lower; both closed the Sochi LP with CCoSP4, which Ashley got 4 points for and Julia got 5. That difference alone makes up for one fall deduction.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

drivingmissdaisy said:

In Sochi Ashley still got better PCS. Her problem was that she had three jump elements that had -GOE, like Julia. Unlike Julia, Ashley cannot make up for errors with great spins. Even when Ashley earns the same level as Julia, she scores much lower; both closed the Sochi LP with CCoSP4, which Ashley got 4 points for and Julia got 5. That difference alone makes up for one fall deduction.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2014/owg14_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

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You're agreeing with him, though.

Scoring goes up practically all the time at the Olympics, so the fact that she got higher PCS is really nothing worth mentioning.

Couple that with the fact that they can all outscore Wagner in the SP and FS (the top contenders: Kim, Asada, Kostner, 2 Russians, Gracie Gold), her chances of medaling without a major meltdown at the top much less winning an OGM were pretty much zero. It wasn't happening, because there were too many skaters ahead of her to depend on making 1-2 major errors which is what she would have needed to pass most of them. Gold was the only US skater with medal chances. If Sotnikova had pulled a GPF, Gracie would have been there to swoop in for that Bronze medal, but that didn't happen. Ashley had no chance.

Which is why I didn't care for them making excuses to send to her Sochi over Nagasu to begin with. She was terrible at Nationals, and there were no World Championships spots on the line in Sochi. They should have just let the skater who skated better at Nationals go to the Olympics. They could have still won the Team Bronze Medal by just letting Edmunds do the SP and Gold do the FS.

Components said:

You're agreeing with him, though.

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Ashley could have beaten a flawed Julia, but not with 3 jumps with -GOE.

Components said:

Which is why I didn't care for them making excuses to send to her Sochi over Nagasu to begin with. She was terrible at Nationals, and there were no World Championships spots on the line in Sochi. They should have just let the skater who skated better at Nationals go to the Olympics. They could have still won the Team Bronze Medal by just letting Edmunds do the SP and Gold do the FS.

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At the time, Ashley had lost to Gracie once, was the only American woman who medaled at the GPF and won a GP event this season, and placed 4th and 5th in the last two Worlds. Based on her record, it was reasonable to think she could win a bronze if multiple skaters melted down and she skated perfectly.