06-24-2014, 08:22 PM
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Ah, you still really don't get it. Her clean FS would have scored in the 140's had the judges wanted it to (and they would have if she was the only one to fully deliver at the Olympics). We already saw how her PCS went up 7 points between the team event and the individual event, even though her team performance was better. She didn't need all of the other 5 to skate "poorer than usual" either. Kostner, Asada, and Sotnikova all have big consistency issues. Yu-Na and Lipnitskaia were the only people seen as having a high chance of skating clean and neither were considered locks. That is not just my opinion, it's what pretty much everyone was thinking. Statistically, Gracie factually had a chance. Just because it was a lower chance doesn't mean it was discountable. Anything that is at least a 5% chance in statistics is considered relevant.
Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
06-24-2014, 08:39 PM
But Gold isn't known for skating cleanly all the time... When was the last time she skated cleanly?
She had a chance, but it rested on the aforementioned five making huge errors while she did not. Chances are, even when Kostner or Asada bombed, Gold wouldn't be clean either (she, in fact, did end up falling in the LP).
06-24-2014, 10:49 PM
I think some people disagree just so they can debate more. Cause I cannot believe this thread has turned into another "let's discuss Gracie Gold" fiasco when the point made was pretty obvious, correct, an didn't really require this amount of in depth discussion.
1. Gracie had a high chance to medal, because her PCS was being rated decently and she has World-Class technical ability in that she has great jumps, all the require technical combinations that the judges are expecting from a champion-level skater, can easily hit her spin levels, and GOEs well across all of her elements, barring mistakes.
2. Gracie at least had A CHANCE to win the Olympic Gold Medal, due to the above. No one said she was a FAVORITE, only that she had a chance. A chance that Wagner didn't. The amount of help she needed to get there was minimal compared to Wagner, who actually got a lot of help (all JPN ladies basically imploding in the SP, Lipnitskaya's Falls) and still couldn't muster a better placement with one of the best FS's she did all season.
Wagner had literally no chance to medal, and a Gold Medal should not have been on her radar, or sonar, or whatever... Period. She simply isn't good enough and she's exhausted almost all of the upward momentum the judges were willing to give her. 2012's weak World Championship field was Wagner's best chance to grab a World of Olympic Medal. I don't think she will ever get back to 4th place unless we witness what would be perhaps the worst Ladies competition ever seen - a splatfest to epitomize the word itself.
06-24-2014, 11:21 PM
Actually, she would have placed better with a 3F+2T instead of a 3F+3T<<. She would have been 5th at Worlds, ahead of Gold and Suzuki.
Originally Posted by Amei
06-24-2014, 11:29 PM
06-24-2014, 11:36 PM
Oh but you see, when it comes to hypotheticals, the ones saying Gold could win are taking extreme examples of when her competitors did poorly and then extrapolating specific examples of when Gold skated well (since she hasn't skated a clean full competition ever).
Originally Posted by Sandpiper
Saying she could have had a shot to win gold is as ridiculous as saying Goebel could have won 2002 OGM if Yagudin or Plushenko had fallen on their quads. It wasn't a likelihood since the Russians (like Kim) were way superior to Goebel. All the politicking wasn't going to give Gold the clout skaters like Kim have. And if Mao hasn't royally messed up and skated her usual decent skates, her clout/difficulty would have easily put her ahead of Gold - as we saw by Mao beating Gold by 22 points at Worlds.
Obviously if the field implodes and you're the one skater who goes clean, you have a shot to win.
Are you telling me that Wagner couldn't have won if she was the only one to skate clean while everyone else in the field committed multiple major errors/falls? She would have but the likelihood of all those skaters bombing is unfathomable. They would need to skate worse than the field at 2012 Worlds.
06-24-2014, 11:44 PM
This is all pointless hypothetical banter anyways. The reality is, if Gold actually did have a chance of winning the OGM she was far outclassed by the top 3 to make that a reality, and she herself didn't even put herself into the mix with a fall of her own. She was fortunate that Mao shockingly bombed her SP (her 2nd worst ever) and Julia uncharacteristically fell in both programs.
Seeing as how she would have surely been 6th with typical Mao/Julia skates, I say she was lucky/capitalized to come 4th.
06-25-2014, 12:08 AM
I would agree except Gracie herself hasn't skated a clean competition up to Sochi and even since. She's not a reliable competitor.
Originally Posted by Blades of Passion
Well as long as you agree that it was no more than 5%.
And what bizarro statistical "reasoning" are you using to suggest 1 in 20 odds is a "statistically relevant" (whatever that means) chance.
You think Gold would be touted as a somebody in the running for OGM with a mere 5% chance at it? Do you think a political candidate who gets 5% of the popular vote is statistically relevant?
How about this scenario where we take competitions where the faves bombed at some point:
Mao - skates her SP from Sochi individual and FS from Nationals
Kim - skates her 2010 Worlds SP and 2009 Skate America FS (note how far back I had to go)
Lip - skates her SP from Sochi individual and FS like Cup of Russia 2013
Kostner - skates her SP like at Worlds 2013 and her FS at Worlds 2014
Gold - skates her SP like at NHK and LP like at 2014 Worlds
Sotnikova - skates her SP like at TEB and FS like GPF
If that's how the others skated, and if Wagner skated her GPF SP and 2014 Worlds FS, or Suzuki skated like at Japanese Nationals, you don't think either would have won?
06-25-2014, 12:19 AM
The most mind boggling thing as that you seem to be almost oblivious to the fact that Kim was competing, in which case she was likely to go clean or close to clean - certainly more likely than Gold. Right then and there, Gold's hypothetical snowball's chance in hell at an OGM is gone simply by Kim's presence. Unless she magically managed to temporarily switch to the Russian team (which could have been the case given how her PCS was boosted to pro-Russian levels of craziness in the FS).
06-25-2014, 12:32 AM
Size 7 Knifeboots
Last edited by Sam-Skwantch; 06-25-2014 at 12:35 AM.
Reason: Slink fail
06-25-2014, 12:55 AM
Maybe there's some merit to that French newspaper article.
Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch
06-25-2014, 03:21 AM
Skating is art, if you let it be.
CanadianSkaterGuy, you made 6 posts in a row. I don't think anything more needs to be said about the desperation and futility of your non-arguments. You're being worse than PangTongFan now and all for what? This is how everything you've been writing reads as: "I'm mad the American girl had a higher scoring potential than the Canadian girl and I'm going to ignore every statistic and trend and piece of math that makes me think about it."
06-25-2014, 10:53 AM
I tend to disagree with CSG on a lot of things (inevitable considering we dislike each other's favourite skaters ), but I think he makes some good points here.
Yes, Gracie had a "chance," for a gold. A chance that relied on five people bombing while she skated clean. Considering that Yuna will likely skate clean while Gracie herself will not, it's not a very good chance. As things stand, she ended up fourth after two of the five did bomb--but even if she hadn't fallen in the LP, she would've been left off the podium.
I'd say she had a chance to be on the podium, but I wouldn't call it a "high chance" by any means. She's no more consistent than the five people in front of her, and podium would require three of them to mess up.
Even with the magic PCS rise (for which I share CSG and Sam's consternation), she didn't podium, let alone gold. Seems like she was heavily advertised simply for being Frank Carroll's student and American.
Okay, now you can write me off as an angry Canadian the same way you dismissed CSG. Except my favourite female skater of all time happens to be American. Of course, I'll admit, I never understood why some Canadian news outlets cheer on Americans like they're one of our own. I confess I've never done that (granted, never cheered much for Canadians either, but...)
06-25-2014, 11:30 PM
That didn't stop Sotnikova from delivering the goods. Or Kostner, who didn't even make the GPF while Adelina did.
Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
Which is why your reasoning is laughable. Really. Laughable. Considering Gracie was skating quite well leading up to Sochi. Better than Kostner was Skating, for example.