But Gold isn't known for skating cleanly all the time... When was the last time she skated cleanly?
She had a chance, but it rested on the aforementioned five making huge errors while she did not. Chances are, even when Kostner or Asada bombed, Gold wouldn't be clean either (she, in fact, did end up falling in the LP).
I think some people disagree just so they can debate more. Cause I cannot believe this thread has turned into another "let's discuss Gracie Gold" fiasco when the point made was pretty obvious, correct, an didn't really require this amount of in depth discussion.
1. Gracie had a high chance to medal, because her PCS was being rated decently and she has World-Class technical ability in that she has great jumps, all the require technical combinations that the judges are expecting from a champion-level skater, can easily hit her spin levels, and GOEs well across all of her elements, barring mistakes.
2. Gracie at least had A CHANCE to win the Olympic Gold Medal, due to the above. No one said she was a FAVORITE, only that she had a chance. A chance that Wagner didn't. The amount of help she needed to get there was minimal compared to Wagner, who actually got a lot of help (all JPN ladies basically imploding in the SP, Lipnitskaya's Falls) and still couldn't muster a better placement with one of the best FS's she did all season.
Wagner had literally no chance to medal, and a Gold Medal should not have been on her radar, or sonar, or whatever... Period. She simply isn't good enough and she's exhausted almost all of the upward momentum the judges were willing to give her. 2012's weak World Championship field was Wagner's best chance to grab a World of Olympic Medal. I don't think she will ever get back to 4th place unless we witness what would be perhaps the worst Ladies competition ever seen - a splatfest to epitomize the word itself.
Oy. Not you, now. People honestly thinking she had a shot at gold? Fine, a remote shot, like 2% if all of Kim/Lip/Kostner/Asada/Sotnikova messed up and Gold actually managed to put together a clean SP+LP competition for the first time (which given that she had a major error in every competition prior to Sochi made it awfully unsurprising that she didnt win. It would have required a messier competition than the men's for Gold to have come out on top.
Saying she could have had a shot to win gold is as ridiculous as saying Goebel could have won 2002 OGM if Yagudin or Plushenko had fallen on their quads. It wasn't a likelihood since the Russians (like Kim) were way superior to Goebel. All the politicking wasn't going to give Gold the clout skaters like Kim have. And if Mao hasn't royally messed up and skated her usual decent skates, her clout/difficulty would have easily put her ahead of Gold - as we saw by Mao beating Gold by 22 points at Worlds.
Obviously if the field implodes and you're the one skater who goes clean, you have a shot to win.
Are you telling me that Wagner couldn't have won if she was the only one to skate clean while everyone else in the field committed multiple major errors/falls? She would have but the likelihood of all those skaters bombing is unfathomable. They would need to skate worse than the field at 2012 Worlds.
This is all pointless hypothetical banter anyways. The reality is, if Gold actually did have a chance of winning the OGM she was far outclassed by the top 3 to make that a reality, and she herself didn't even put herself into the mix with a fall of her own. She was fortunate that Mao shockingly bombed her SP (her 2nd worst ever) and Julia uncharacteristically fell in both programs.
Seeing as how she would have surely been 6th with typical Mao/Julia skates, I say she was lucky/capitalized to come 4th.
Well as long as you agree that it was no more than 5%.
And what bizarro statistical "reasoning" are you using to suggest 1 in 20 odds is a "statistically relevant" (whatever that means) chance.
You think Gold would be touted as a somebody in the running for OGM with a mere 5% chance at it? Do you think a political candidate who gets 5% of the popular vote is statistically relevant?
How about this scenario where we take competitions where the faves bombed at some point:
Mao - skates her SP from Sochi individual and FS from Nationals
Kim - skates her 2010 Worlds SP and 2009 Skate America FS (note how far back I had to go)
Lip - skates her SP from Sochi individual and FS like Cup of Russia 2013
Kostner - skates her SP like at Worlds 2013 and her FS at Worlds 2014
Gold - skates her SP like at NHK and LP like at 2014 Worlds
Sotnikova - skates her SP like at TEB and FS like GPF
If that's how the others skated, and if Wagner skated her GPF SP and 2014 Worlds FS, or Suzuki skated like at Japanese Nationals, you don't think either would have won?
The most mind boggling thing as that you seem to be almost oblivious to the fact that Kim was competing, in which case she was likely to go clean or close to clean - certainly more likely than Gold. Right then and there, Gold's hypothetical snowball's chance in hell at an OGM is gone simply by Kim's presence. Unless she magically managed to temporarily switch to the Russian team (which could have been the case given how her PCS was boosted to pro-Russian levels of craziness in the FS).