Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Mrs. P · May 20, 2014

Jammers said:
I felt the same way back in 2011 that the US was going to be in bad shape if Rachael Flatt was still the best the US had to offer heading into the Sochi or if she was even still a contender. If no one has challenged or passed up a almost 26 year old Wagner by 2017 it will not be good for US skating.

It's not Wagner's or U.S. Figure Skating's responsibility to make other skaters more competitive. If Wagner is still a contender in 2017, it's because Wagner rose to the occasion and others didn't. I guess you can argue that if USFS did this or that then we we would have more contenders but federation support can only do so much.

As for not having "enough" talent, talent also only gets you so far. If you have no head for competition or the work ethic, you're not going to be competitive.

Also why do people have a problem getting somewhere because they worked for it? Golly, if talent is the "best" way to get someplace, then why bother to do anything?

flutzy13 · May 20, 2014

Coltrocks12 said:
I guess I am in the minority on here but I have never cared for Ashley Wagner and I had steam coming out of my ears when she was named to the Olympics by the USFSA. Marai is a former champion and was clearly better at Nats than Ashley. She had come in fourth in Vancouver (same as GG in Sochi) and could've had a chance to medal. My heart broke for her watching the exhibition at Nats where she was hysterical (just found out) and even crying hysterically, turned in the prettiest exhibition of the nite. While I have anger and vitriol directed at the USFSA and my opinions about why they would elevate Ashley to the team even though she was crap at Nats and not because she was injured (usual reason for a switch) I don't blame her for accepting her spot on the Olympic team. I don't care for Ashley and was cheering at her low marks at the games. I like GG and Polina and hope that either Marai makes a comeback or that a good young skater emerges. I hope Wags goes pro and doesn't try to stay and free fall in the next quad.

Not to beat a dead horse but since it's been raised- 1. I'm not sure in what universe Mirai was going to challenge for a medal with Adelina, Kim, Caro, Gracie, Julia. She would have been lucky to be top 10. With her 4CC performance, she would not have been. 2. She had not just found out when she skated the exhibition at Nationals- it had been at least 8 hours since the announcement, she likely knew hours before that and deep down had to know all along what the choice would be with Ashley 4th. It's not like they told her and sent her out on the ice. The reason she was emotional was because the crowd stood before she even started- it was a lovely moment for those who were in the arena and she was appreciative. She was composed initially.

Wagner earned her place with 2 years of solid results and backed up USFS's decision by staying on her feet in the team competition when the US was in a bit of trouble due to Abbott imploding, making the final group in Sochi and having the highest free skate of the US girls at Worlds. While it may be unlikely she makes Pyeongchang, she's represented us respectably every time and I'll be rooting that against all odds she does so again in 2018

anyanka · May 20, 2014

Oh please. If an Olympic bronze medal (in the team competition) and a top ten finish in the individual event is "killing a career", then if I were a skater, sign me up.

Sandpiper · May 21, 2014

Btw, just want to say I'm happy to see all the support here for Ashley (with a few expected outliers). :clap:

Not being American, I'm not invested in the success of "US women's figure skating," but the negativity surrounding Ashley heading into the games made me root for her. And between Sochi and Worlds, she's proved herself to be a great performer (best of the US ladies right now!) and a solid skater even if she doesn't have the explosive talent. No, she's probably not gonna win a medal in 2018 Olympics. But if no one in the US steps up and Ashley remains... well, good for her, I say! As Mrs. P says, it's not Ashley's responsibility if no one comes to unseat her.

BusyMom · May 21, 2014

Sandpiper said:
As Mrs. P says, it's not Ashley's responsibility if no one comes to unseat her.

Of course it is not Ashley's responsibility but USFS's. I'm also the outsider but maybe my take is another angle to the US state of their Ladies. Until Gracie, no one came closed to unseat Ashley because USFS try so hard to keep her their leading ladies. Gracie should win her national title even with the disastrous Sp. Her FS was more than good enough to win the overall. If her won last year, I bet she would be more packed with the advantage of being the US no.1 longer enough to build up her reputation.

Anyway, both of them are great but putting the faith of the entire team in just two skaters is not quite enough. Ashley skated her best at World but it wasn't good enough for the podium. Building the strong team is a must. Like the Russian, they have more than enough resources to use at the moment. They had been struggle with two leading ladies too in the last few years (Sot&Tuk). When both of them struggle with puberty, the team basically fall apart. Now they set for the next decade.

Outside the US, most of the countries building their next generation by ISU guideline which is age requirement. Even though in some countries still use skills level for their national but when it come to international competition they will be under the ISU regulations. Like this year US national for example, A lot of the competitors in the Juvenile were over ten years of age. In other countries at that age, you should be in the Advanced Novice and preparing for the Junior level already. It seems most of their coaches set their eyes on the podium by using the ages and experiences advantages. In the long run, the tactic is killing these poor skaters' career in the long run. One of my favourite US skaters, Sam Cesario, is one of these cases. She went to Junior World last year as the oldest skater (19) and still she only finished in 4th place.

There are always lots of argument for Age/Skills. Might be just me but if the kids are good enough age different are nothing.

louisa05 · May 21, 2014

flutzy13 said:
As far as pressure, I think Polina will be fine. We may not have expected her to make the Olympic team but I think it was totally in team Polina's plan. Watch the press conferences from Nationals. They knew no other skater had firmly penciled herself into the third spot. When she found herself with a chance being in 2nd after the SP in Boston, she didn't buckle at all. She doesn't seem to give off the nervy, deer in headlights type vibe we got from Gracie early on in her senior career. Polina seems to know she's really good and trusts her training. If she becomes a basketcase next year due to expectations, I will be shocked. I'm much more worried about Gracie buckling under the pressure of being US champion and those expectations that come with that on the GP and in Greensboro.

There's a difference between being a basket case and having the growing pains that can come with the pressure to contend for a national title and carry the U.S. team. I do not expect Polina to "become a basket case". But I don't think it is realistic to expect her to not respond at all to the pressure. And I can't help but remember sweet little 14 year old Mirai who had not a care in the world and seemed to not know what pressure was back when she won Nationals. We have also seen skaters who seemed to have all the confidence in the world cave under the pressure of expectations. Michelle Kwan had the fiercest game face I've ever seen in sports and it was nowhere to be found under the pressure of being the favorite at the Olympics. No one is immune to nerves. And there is a reason that winning back to back U.S. titles is not easy and has only been done once since Kwan in ladies (and Ashley held on to the second by the skin of her teeth).

concorde · May 21, 2014

BusyMom said:
Outside the US, most of the countries building their next generation by ISU guideline which is age requirement. Even though in some countries still use skills level for their national but when it come to international competition they will be under the ISU regulations. Like this year US national for example, A lot of the competitors in the Juvenile were over ten years of age. In other countries at that age, you should be in the Advanced Novice and preparing for the Junior level already. It seems most of their coaches set their eyes on the podium by using the ages and experiences advantages. In the long run, the tactic is killing these poor skaters' career in the long run. One of my favourite US skaters, Sam Cesario, is one of these cases. She went to Junior World last year as the oldest skater (19) and still she only finished in 4th place.

There are always lots of argument for Age/Skills. Might be just me but if the kids are good enough age different are nothing.

There is a difference between US "Junior" and International Junior - it is not an apples to apples comparison. In the US, the designation is determined by the jumps performed in your program; Internationally the designation is based on age. So a US skater can skate at US Nationals as a "Senior" but still represent the US as a "Junior." This is what I was told by an International-level judge and it seems to be true. I point to Samantha Cesario.

Why are so many US skaters held behind at lower levels? The issue is the US culture - Most US parents (and their coaches) view the number of medals won by their child as a sign of progress. To most parents, it does not matter what level the medal was for but rather whether or not a medal was won. Until this culture changes, I do not see skaters moving up until everyone thinks the skater will medal at the next level. Lets be honest, most parents are not happy spending 25K a year on a child's hobby so that the child can finish in last place. They view the better choice as holding back a level so the child gets 1st; everyone now thinks the child has Olympic potential!

Pity the parents and coaches that do not believe in "sandbagging" a child but rather move the skater up when the skater is ready. Lots of hard word and not a lot to show at the lower levels. Polina Edmunds is an good example of not "sandbagging." When Polina Edmonds won her Junior title in 2013, this was actually her third year to skate as a Junior.

BusyMom · May 21, 2014

concorde said:
The issue is the US culture - Most US parents (and their coaches) view the number of medals won by their child as a sign of progress. To most parents, it does not matter what level the medal was for but rather whether or not a medal was won.

My point exactly! And Polina is the perfect example why you need to push your kids hard to their maximum potential. Not stalled them just to get the medals.

I knew that you're a skater's mom. I'm sorry if I offended you in anyway. It was not my intention. I knew the US system is different but that is the main problems. We're talking about the flaw of the system of such a big country with lots of potential young skaters here. It is so sad when you see kids from small federations could participate in big competition while at the same time some of very good young skaters from the US don't even have a chance for Inter B. My kid now at the age of 12 has a solid 2A and 2 consistent triples won't survive in the US competitions but around here they avoid her like a plaque. My point is USFS need to adjust their ways of thinking and use their vast amount of resources to build the bigger team. Not just focus on one skaters and expect him/her to lead the team to success.

I understand your point about parents expectations very well. I knew someone who did just that to build their kid profile for the MIT admissions too. But they didn't give a flying care about skating in the first place.

flutzy13 · May 21, 2014

louisa05 said:
There's a difference between being a basket case and having the growing pains that can come with the pressure to contend for a national title and carry the U.S. team. I do not expect Polina to "become a basket case". But I don't think it is realistic to expect her to not respond at all to the pressure. And I can't help but remember sweet little 14 year old Mirai who had not a care in the world and seemed to not know what pressure was back when she won Nationals. We have also seen skaters who seemed to have all the confidence in the world cave under the pressure of expectations. Michelle Kwan had the fiercest game face I've ever seen in sports and it was nowhere to be found under the pressure of being the favorite at the Olympics. No one is immune to nerves. And there is a reason that winning back to back U.S. titles is not easy and has only been done once since Kwan in ladies (and Ashley held on to the second by the skin of her teeth).

I don't think Polina is expected to carry the US team at all. She is expected to be one of the top girls- most people don't even consider her above Ashley yet and Gracie's the one with most of the hype going into next season and the one who will have to defend a National title. I'm not saying she won't ever make a mistake but I highly doubt she'll turn out to be a Mirai under pressure. Her control of nerves seems much more in the line of Lipinski and Hughes who both were rocks in competition like 90% of the time. At least that's how I see her. Next season will obviously tell the tale- I happen to think she's going to medal in both GPs by having a high TES, a rising PCS and by capitalizing on others' mistakes. We'll see what happens. As far as whether she'll succumb to Kwan like Salt Lake City pressure in Pyeongchang, its way too early to project because she's nowhere near in that sort of position yet.

R.D. · May 21, 2014

As for Edmunds, I do not think there are enough data points yet for us to assess with a high (or even moderate) level of confidence how she will perform under pressure. She hasn't even been put in such a spot yet, so...

And Gold will feel the pressure of top American for the first time. There ARE data points to predict how she will do, and it doesn't look good.

Mrs. P · May 21, 2014

BusyMom said:
Of course it is not Ashley's responsibility but USFS's. I'm also the outsider but maybe my take is another angle to the US state of their Ladies. Until Gracie, no one came closed to unseat Ashley because USFS try so hard to keep her their leading ladies. Gracie should win her national title even with the disastrous Sp. Her FS was more than good enough to win the overall. If her won last year, I bet she would be more packed with the advantage of being the US no.1 longer enough to build up her reputation.

Anyway, both of them are great but putting the faith of the entire team in just two skaters is not quite enough. Ashley skated her best at World but it wasn't good enough for the podium. Building the strong team is a must. Like the Russian, they have more than enough resources to use at the moment. They had been struggle with two leading ladies too in the last few years (Sot&Tuk). When both of them struggle with puberty, the team basically fall apart. Now they set for the next decade.

Outside the US, most of the countries building their next generation by ISU guideline which is age requirement. Even though in some countries still use skills level for their national but when it come to international competition they will be under the ISU regulations. Like this year US national for example, A lot of the competitors in the Juvenile were over ten years of age. In other countries at that age, you should be in the Advanced Novice and preparing for the Junior level already. It seems most of their coaches set their eyes on the podium by using the ages and experiences advantages. In the long run, the tactic is killing these poor skaters' career in the long run. One of my favourite US skaters, Sam Cesario, is one of these cases. She went to Junior World last year as the oldest skater (19) and still she only finished in 4th place.

There are always lots of argument for Age/Skills. Might be just me but if the kids are good enough age different are nothing.

Samantha Cesario, however, had two years where she did not compete at Nationals due to injury. Me thinks that she would have moved up to senior internationally sooner had it not been for those setbacks. She was sent to junior worlds because she did not place high enough at Nationals for 4CC/Worlds (8th). And yes, while she didn't medal at junior Worlds, I thought she had a respectable GP debut with a 5th place finish at SA and a 4th place finish at TEB.

As to whether Gracie should have won Nationals last year, it's a toss up. Ashley had a solid SP and a bad FS; Gracie the opposite. As for reputation, leading up Nationals, Ashley was the GPF silver medalist and won both her GP events while Gracie eeked out a silver medal at Cup of Russia and had a bad competition at Skate Canada. If the USFS was propping Ashley up it's because Gracie was such an big question mark at the time.

And there's no guarantee that Gracie would have had a greater advantage in Sochi had she been U.S. No. 1 a year earlier. As RD pointed out, Gracie would have had the burden of defending her title AND during an Olympic year. Certainly that theory didn't really play out for Max Aaron with the U.S. men.

NYscorp6 · May 21, 2014

The Mirai controversy aside, the USFS selection of Ashley was a blessing for her not a career killing event.
Her skating has become stagnant though, perhaps even reaching a peak.
The self doubt was startling especially because Ashley seems to like to talk a good game, she just didn't back it up when it counted. Or perhaps on the other hand maybe that is all she has to offer after all.
Lets see what each lady brings to the ice next year.

BusyMom · May 21, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Samantha Cesario, however, had two years where she did not compete at Nationals due to injury. Me thinks that she would have moved up to senior internationally sooner had it not been for those setbacks. She was sent to junior worlds because she did not place high enough at Nationals for 4CC/Worlds (8th). And yes, while she didn't medal at junior Worlds, I thought she had a respectable GP debut with a 5th place finish at SA and a 4th place finish at TEB.

As to whether Gracie should have won Nationals last year, it's a toss up. Ashley had a solid SP and a bad FS; Gracie the opposite. As for reputation, leading up Nationals, Ashley was the GPF silver medalist and won both her GP events while Gracie eeked out a silver medal at Cup of Russia and had a bad competition at Skate Canada. If the USFS was propping Ashley up it's because Gracie was such an big question mark at the time.

And there's no guarantee that Gracie would have had a greater advantage in Sochi had she been U.S. No. 1 a year earlier. As RD pointed out, Gracie would have had the burden of defending her title AND during an Olympic year. Certainly that theory didn't really play out for Max Aaron with the U.S. men.

I well aware of her injuries, as I said I'm a fan. The point is the junior competition especially as big as World Junior are crucial parts for young skaters to build their reputations. It might be a better option to give the spot to age-qualified skaters who would be benefit for the next year or so in the JGP scenes. Sam already aged out by that time and also already got her name well established. Quality of US junior skaters are well above almost any countries, They would be finished with the good results anyhow.

The Russian has so many great young skaters. The way their Fed handle them is genius. There are so many competitions for them to grow, not just the qualified stages for National. They also delegate most of the rising stars to various competitions in Europe too.

As for Gracie, you're right about the No Guarantee. Nothing in the skating world is.

Jammers · May 21, 2014

BusyMom said:
I well aware of her injuries, as I said I'm a fan. The point is the junior competition especially as big as World Junior are crucial parts for young skaters to build their reputations. It might be a better option to give the spot to age-qualified skaters who would be benefit for the next year or so in the JGP scenes. Sam already aged out by that time and also already got her name well established. Quality of US junior skaters are well above almost any countries, They would be finished with the good results anyhow.

The Russian has so many great young skaters. The way their Fed handle them is genius. There are so many competitions for them to grow, not just the qualified stages for National. They also delegate most of the rising stars to various competitions in Europe too.

As for Gracie, you're right about the No Guarantee. Nothing in the skating world is.

Russia has had no choice but to push the young girls since they haven't had many good older veteran skaters since Irina retired. When a 12 year old wins Russian Nationals like Adelina did back in 2008 that tells you where Russia was when it came to their Ladies 5 years ago.

kwanatic · May 21, 2014

Jammers said:
Russia has had no choice but to push the young girls since they haven't had many good older veteran skaters since Irina retired. When a 12 year old wins Russian Nationals like Adelina did back in 2008 that tells you where Russia was when it came to their Ladies 5 years ago.

Yep. By that time they knew they had the 2014 Olympics and that's where the federation really started getting behind the skaters. Now Russia is poised to be the dominant country for at least the next quad, with a number of top level Russian contenders and more arriving on the scene (both junior and senior) every single year. The depth in that country is outrageous and doesn't appear to be slowing down any time soon.

Mrs. P · May 21, 2014

BusyMom said:
I well aware of her injuries, as I said I'm a fan. The point is the junior competition especially as big as World Junior are crucial parts for young skaters to build their reputations. It might be a better option to give the spot to age-qualified skaters who would be benefit for the next year or so in the JGP scenes. Sam already aged out by that time and also already got her name well established. Quality of US junior skaters are well above almost any countries, They would be finished with the good results anyhow.

The Russian has so many great young skaters. The way their Fed handle them is genius. There are so many competitions for them to grow, not just the qualified stages for National. They also delegate most of the rising stars to various competitions in Europe too.

As for Gracie, you're right about the No Guarantee. Nothing in the skating world is.

That's a good point. That said, it wasn't that big of a stretch for Sammi to compete at junior worlds -- she had been at JGP earlier in the season. Yes, she is on the older side, but internationally she was a junior. It's not like what they used to do is take someone who was a senior and bring them back to the junior level to guarantee JGP/Jr. World spots/medals (i.e. Ashley Wagner and Caroline Zhang circa 2009; Agnes Z in 2011). It seems the tide is changing this season when they opted to send Karen, Amber and Tyler Pierce, who were all juniors nationally as well, to compete at Jr. Worlds (though the results weren't great).

I feel like you can't expect the Russian model in the U.S. because unlike Russia, skaters (and their parents) are responsible for a majority of their expenses. Russia goes through all those extra competitions not because they necessarily want to give skaters more opportunities but they are screening opportunities to see their ROI.

Also, I think another thing you're facing in the U.S. is that USFSA is not just made up of elite skaters. Many of their members are skaters -- like adult skaters -- who will never make it at the world elite level, so I'd imagine there's probably some conflicts as far as where to throw your priorities/resources toward. I think in places like Japan and Russia, there is more of a priority on "building the team."

kwanatic said:
Yep. By that time they knew they had the 2014 Olympics and that's where the federation really started getting behind the skaters. Now Russia is poised to be the dominant country for at least the next quad, with a number of top level Russian contenders and more arriving on the scene (both junior and senior) every single year. The depth in that country is outrageous and doesn't appear to be slowing down any time soon.

However, it also helps that there were a lot of talented ladies skaters for the federation to back. I can't help but wonder why the same formula hasn't worked in men, for example, a discipline that has had such a strong tradition in the past.

I just chalk it up to peaks and valleys. Sometimes there just aren't as many talented/promising skaters at a given time.

BusyMom · May 21, 2014

Mrs. P said:
However, it also helps that there were a lot of talented ladies skaters for the federation to back. I can't help but wonder why the same formula hasn't worked in men, for example, a discipline that has had such a strong tradition in the past.

I just chalk it up to peaks and valleys. Sometimes there just aren't as many talented/promising skaters at a given time.

That's because in Russia Hockey is MAJOR sport. Parents of the boy might prefer there kids to go playing hockey even the government pays for FS training. Even now there are only a few Russian young boys skaters in last year competitions. Some age group not even one enter.

As for Japanese, I was told the parents are still responsible financially without any help until they make it to the senior team.

You can't compare two different country with so much variety in general but I strongly believe in learning and adaptation.

louisa05 · May 21, 2014

flutzy13 said:
I don't think Polina is expected to carry the US team at all. She is expected to be one of the top girls- most people don't even consider her above Ashley yet and Gracie's the one with most of the hype going into next season and the one who will have to defend a National title. I'm not saying she won't ever make a mistake but I highly doubt she'll turn out to be a Mirai under pressure. Her control of nerves seems much more in the line of Lipinski and Hughes who both were rocks in competition like 90% of the time. At least that's how I see her. Next season will obviously tell the tale- I happen to think she's going to medal in both GPs by having a high TES, a rising PCS and by capitalizing on others' mistakes. We'll see what happens. As far as whether she'll succumb to Kwan like Salt Lake City pressure in Pyeongchang, its way too early to project because she's nowhere near in that sort of position yet.

You took all of that rather literally. The point about Kwan at the Olympics was that any skater at any time can give in to the pressure, not that Polina will be the gold medal favorite in 2018 and succumb to pressure (I will be very surprised if Polina is the favorite there). And the point about Mirai was that it is easy to come out of juniors and do great at Nationals with no expectations but it is not always easy to follow up on that success once you've done it and everyone expects you to equal or exceed it from now on. Everyone in this thread seems to expect Polina to equal or exceed 2014 Nats from here on out, that is a whole new situation to compete in compared to being the girl fresh out of juniors with no expectations from USFSA or fans.

I also refuse to get excited about any skater under 17 or so. The list of next big stars is very long. The list of actual stars is not.

R.D. · May 21, 2014

Everyone in this thread seems to expect Polina to equal or exceed 2014 Nats from here on out, that is a whole new situation to compete in compared to being the girl fresh out of juniors with no expectations from USFSA or fans.

I also refuse to get excited about any skater under 17 or so. The list of next big stars is very long. The list of actual stars is not.

Hmm...we may actually be talking some sense here...

Yes, exactly. That's what I've been saying for awhile now. Not saying it absolutely won't happen, but...the odds are not in favor of it. If in doubt, just look at the history - I rest my case.

Sam-Skwantch · May 21, 2014

As of right now the only American (ladies) I expect to be able to come out next year and attack a program is Ashley. She is the only one that exudes confidence and delivers with fire IMO. The problem is in spite of the fire and attack...she keeps fudging the landings of very important jumps. :rolleye:

Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

flutzy13

anyanka

Sandpiper

BusyMom

louisa05

concorde

BusyMom

flutzy13

R.D.

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

NYscorp6

BusyMom

Jammers

kwanatic

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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

BusyMom

louisa05

R.D.

Sam-Skwantch

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