Chan's plans for the next quadrennial- your best guess

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Chan will always pull in high artistic scores because his skating is just a level above everyone... and I don't see it diminishing too much, and even if it does, I don't see his scores diminishing because in the judges' minds, he's the best complete skater out there.

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Exactly. And Reynolds will be 27 by the next Olympics, same as Chan. The chances he'll keep his quads are about the same as Chan keeping his skating skills, if not worse, even if Kevin competes throughout the quad and Chan doesn't. The chances of him fixing his UR issues are about as high as Chan fixing his axel. Therefore: Chan is the best bet for the Team Event if Canada wants even an outside shot at gold (and a secure silver).

Of course, a lot can change in four years. Maybe Chan will lose all his jumps and Kevin will magically start pulling high PCS.

Alba said:

If he is not competing this season at all, I think he will be back the next one, 2015-2016. No way he's waiting two season for a comeback.
I don't think he is done with the competitions, yet. I know it's too early to tell now, but the men's field is not like the ladies.
I can still see him competing in 2018.

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Isn't this guaranteed that he's sitting out this season?

pointyourtoe said:

Isn't this guaranteed that he's sitting out this season?

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Sorry, I don't understand your question. What do you mean?

HanDomi said:

Great that you can read in judges mind

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Hah, well, I can also read their scores. He's got the highest PCS scores in both programs.

Unfortunately I don't think Reynolds can do anything to get into the upper echelon of high PCS. He's seen as a technical skater, although he's made considerable artistic progress.

HanDomi said:

Great that you can read in judges mind

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Tbh what CSG said is based on the judges marks not mind reading. I'm not a Chan fan but his SS are the best, only Dai is on the same level, and I gues artistry is fine. Not my cup of tea but the judges do think so.

I definitely do not deny his skills. I just refered a little to the best overall skater definition, which everyone can understand diffrently. Best overall I think should mean, the best technically and the best artistically, but he is definitely not the best out there technically

HanDomi said:

I definitely do not deny his skills. I just refered a little to the best overall skater definition, which everyone can understand diffrently. Best overall I think should mean, the best technically and the best artistically, but he is definitely not the best out there technically

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I agree with you about best overall skater definition. Everyone of us understand it differently.
I don't think Chan is the best technically, but he is good there as well and the judges do seem to think that he is the best in PC.
So, based on this you may say he's a very good overall skater.

The judges might change their mind though, we don't know with all the young skaters like Yuzuru. Who knows....

HanDomi said:

I definitely do not deny his skills. I just refered a little to the best overall skater definition, which everyone can understand diffrently. Best overall I think should mean, the best technically and the best artistically, but he is definitely not the best out there technically

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So who is best technically AND best artistically? Best overall means best overall.

There are those with theoretical higher BV but they are not actually able to execute them in real competitions to result in highest TES.

Hanyu has the highest TES with Chan's close behind. But Hanyu certainly does not have best PCS and far from best artistically.

Chan however has the best overall scores as well as the best LP score while Hanyu has the best SP score.

You may argue who's the best overall but "best technically and best artistically" only serves to deny but will not define.

With the PCS inflation, I refuse to acknowledge all kinds of world records. PCS nowadays is just ordinal system in disguise.

Overall, I do think PChan is the best all-rounded skater at the moment. Technically he might not be the best but if figure skating is always about the jumping technique then Timothy Goebel should have been the gold medalist in 2002.

There have been teenagers that could land quads, but none of them has the basic skills to the decent level to perform as a senior, not to mention their presentation was bad. So yes, PCS is very important because you have to use PCS to tell who have better artistry between someone like Goebel and Yagudin.

Meoima said:

With the PCS inflation, I refuse to acknowledge all kinds of world records. PCS nowadays is just ordinal system in disguise.

Overall, I do think PChan is the best all-rounded skater at the moment. Technically he might not be the best but if figure skating is always about the jumping technique then Timothy Goebel should have been the gold medal in 2002.

There have been teenagers that could land quads, but none of them has the basic skills to the decent level to perform as a senior, not to mention their presentation was bad. So yes, PCS is very important because you have to use PCS to tell who have better artistry between someone like Goebel and Yagudin.

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I fully agree with you. :agree:

2 years maximum then retirement

Chan really isn't my cup of tea artistically (he embodies a lot of what I don't like about COP, with the "hops and turns that are impressive but don't seem to mean anything"). But his skillset does seem to be a bit more even than Hanyu's (Dai is out because his quads are basically shot at this point. At least Chan tends to just step out of his axel).

Still, I don't know if Chan skating clean can win against Hanyu skating clean right now, because Hanyu has completely mastered the COP game. His base value is so much higher that Chan's components won't keep him ahead. I don't expect them to skate clean, of course--probably Hanyu with a fall on the quad salchow vs. Chan with a step-out on the triple axel.

Sandpiper said:

Chan really isn't my cup of tea artistically (he embodies a lot of what I don't like about COP, with the "hops and turns that are impressive but don't seem to mean anything"). But his skillset does seem to be a bit more even than Hanyu's (Dai is out because his quads are basically shot at this point. At least Chan tends to just step out of his axel).

Still, I don't know if Chan skating clean can win against Hanyu skating clean right now, because Hanyu has completely mastered the COP game. His base value is so much higher that Chan's components won't keep him ahead. I don't expect them to skate clean, of course--probably Hanyu with a fall on the quad salchow vs. Chan with a step-out on the triple axel.

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But even with that Hanyu will stil outscore him .. a bit on TES.

At current state Hanyu is the best technically, and Chan propably ? ( he is not my cup of tea so I can't judge it properly : ( ) best in presentation .

The main diffrence is Hanyu is younger and should be better and better artistically, and even technically. I don't know what affect break will have on Patrick, but I would like to see their battles next season which will propably not happen sadly.

Chan, for me, isn't better artistically than Hanyu. *runs for the hills* But components include Skating Skills and Transitions, which Chan is very good at (Hanyu matches him in transitions, but not skating skills). But artistry is very subjective. The judges seem to like Chan's artistry even though it's not my cup of tea. Or they simply prize skating skills and match the other components to that. It would be interesting to see how Chan and Hanyu fare under an alternative universe of 6.0. Would Chan receive the higher presentation scores? (I assume he would because he's older and more respected, but what if we made them the same age in this fantasy world?)

The break will probably affect Chan technically a lot more than artistically. His axel is doooooooomed!!! (Kidding, well, sort of...)

HanDomi said:

The main diffrence is Hanyu is younger and should be better and better artistically, and even technically. I don't know what affect break will have on Patrick, but I would like to see their battles next season which will propably not happen sadly.

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I agree with your way of thinking and predictions. It's true that Hanyu is younger than Patrick, so he still has a wide road ahead of him. As for Chan, despite not winning the OGM, I wish he could still compete this season even with the critics'/public's comments. A good fight is always fun to watch. Who'll be Hanyu's rival this season?

Well, men field is much crowded eith talents right now, let's not forget Javi, Machida, the Russians (so many names to mention) and the Chinese so I think there will be more good fight. It's just I hope PChan will come back for at least one or two season. He still has lots to prove. He is the best all-rounded skater at the moment. I hope he will come back soon.

For how I see the artistry Dai is the most beautiful skater to watch out there. I'm so sad about his injuries.

Sandpiper said:

Or more like, a la Plushenko, he might come back to help his country win gold. If Canada wants gold next time, they better use Chan, since I can't see Canada overtaking Russia in either pairs or women. Ice dance is a toss-up depending on how the musical chairs works out. 27-year-old Chan still has a good chance of beating whoever Russia sends for men.

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Alot can happen in 4 years but as things look now, Russia will be even harder to beat for the team gold in 2018 than 2014. While I still believe a Russian women wont be allowed to win the individual gold medal in Korea no matter what (and I am not even referring to Sotnikova who I highly doubt will even still be around then, let alone on the team, I mean no Russian women whoever it is as some type of payback for Sochi), the Russian ladies entry should be substantially than the Canadian ladies entry in the team event. I dont see Duhamel & Radford being around anymore then, and even if they are they will likely have dropped won the rankings by then. The Russians should be significantly stronger in pairs whether V&T are there and still their #1 or not. They have a whole crop of promising pairs, which Canada does not have. Ice dance hard to say, the two countries might be roughly equal but probably wont be alot of points won or lose either way. The mens is hard to say too.

I dont see any scenario Canada has a stronger team than Russia though. They will do well to repeat their 2014 silver over countries like the U.S who seem to have more promising up and comers right now than Canada does. For Canada I only see Nguyen and Daleman, but neither of those are sure thing prospects by any means.

pangtongfan said:

Alot can happen in 4 years but as things look now, Russia will be even harder to beat for the team gold in 2018 than 2014. While I still believe a Russian women wont be allowed to win the individual gold medal in Korea no matter what (and I am not even referring to Sotnikova who I highly doubt will even still be around then, let alone on the team, I mean no Russian women whoever it is as some type of payback for Sochi), the Russian ladies entry should be substantially than the Canadian ladies entry in the team event. I dont see Duhamel & Radford being around anymore then, and even if they are they will likely have dropped won the rankings by then. The Russians should be significantly stronger in pairs whether V&T are there and still their #1 or not. They have a whole crop of promising pairs, which Canada does not have. Ice dance hard to say, the two countries might be roughly equal but probably wont be alot of points won or lose either way. The mens is hard to say too.

I dont see any scenario Canada has a stronger team than Russia though. They will do well to repeat their 2014 silver over countries like the U.S who seem to have more promising up and comers right now than Canada does. For Canada I only see Nguyen and Daleman, but neither of those are sure thing prospects by any means.

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I don't know how you figure that. Russia was 1st in both programs in women's and pairs. They were first in the FS of men's and 2nd in the SP. Dance was their "weakest" event, placing 3rd in both segments. It's hard to imagine they will replicate this, let alone improve on it.

Currently, there is at least W/P who should outskate any Russian team (unless I/Z or S/K rise to the top easily). I would also assume Canada might do slightly better in women's (especially since Osmond placed the lowest in the FS, so they can only place higher), and maybe even men's. Russia might continue to be as strong, but I think they maxed out how hard it is to beat them in Sochi. After all, they won't be afforded certain Sochi perks, like Lipnitskaia beating a clean Kostner in the SP, and Plushenko somehow beating Reynolds in the LP. They will be strong, but without home crowd advantage, IMO they've got nowhere to go but down.

I think Nguyen can do as well as Reynolds, and I think Daleman and Osmond can at least match Osmond's Sochi team event showings.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I don't know how you figure that. Russia was 1st in both programs in women's and pairs. They were first in the FS of men's and 2nd in the SP. Dance was their "weakest" event, placing 3rd in both segments. It's hard to imagine they will replicate this, let alone improve on it.

Currently, there is at least W/P who should outskate any Russian team (unless I/Z or S/K rise to the top easily). I would also assume Canada might do slightly better in women's (especially since Osmond placed the lowest in the FS, so they can only place higher), and maybe even men's. Russia might continue to be as strong, but I think they maxed out how hard it is to beat them in Sochi. After all, they won't be afforded certain Sochi perks, like Lipnitskaia beating a clean Kostner in the SP, and Plushenko somehow beating Reynolds in the LP. They will be strong, but without home crowd advantage, IMO they've got nowhere to go but down.

I think Nguyen can do as well as Reynolds, and I think Daleman and Osmond can at least match Osmond's Sochi team event showings.

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Lipnitskaya was beating a clean Kostner in the short all year, even outside of Russia (Europeans). While the general Russian overscoring in Sochi was obvious it probably didnt affect any of the program placements in the team event other than maybe the mens long program, which would still leave Russia a 4 or 5 point overall win.

Like I said alot can happen in 4 years but I would guess Russia being just as dominant in pairs as they are today. Dance they werent the best in 2014 either, and they should atleast have a bronze contender or two for 2018, so be atleast on par with 2018. Ladies they are likely to be far more dominant overall than 2014 regardless who is on their team. Men well one would hope a more mature Kovtun is atleast on par with Oldshenko from 2018, and given how you have been hyping him I am surprised you wouldnt expect atleast that. Many of the potential top men- Fernandez, possibly Hanyu (who isnt likely to skate 2 programs for Team Japan again), Ten, wont factor into the Team Event much, or any, making a high finish and possibly even 1st for Kovtun if he is even a top 6 skater by then very possible.

Russia might not be stronger than 2014, but at worst they would only be slightly worse probably. However overall Canada is very likely to be weaker than 2014. Weaver & Poje by 2018 might be what V&M were in 2014, gold contenders but not a gold lock for the individual. I guess in a perfect scenario they would be the gold favorites in 2018, unlike V&M in 2014, but that is very far from a safe call now. Their gap on the Russian entry will probably be only equal to V&M in 2014 (which was a certainty to beat the Russian entry in both portions of the team event). And that is a very conservative and stingy estimate for the Russians, they might have someone to emerge who is more competitive with W&P in 2018 than any Russian entry was to V&M in 2010. Ladies Osmond/Daleman/Chartrand Dmight be better but whether she is giving up any less points to the Russian entry who knows. I see Russia making a large points gain in the team portion of that discipline just like 2014, if I had to guess now. I also see Canada very likely giving up more points in pairs than they did in 2014. I dont think their pairs by then will be as strong as they were this time. Duhamel & Radford are not even likely to be around by then, and if they are around not likely to be as highly ranked as they are today; and as I said I dont see any up and comers, and obviously you have a great team like M-T&M retiring. As for men, that is the hardest to project but most likely Canada will be much weaker than 2014 there too regardless if they are sending an old past his prime Chan, a probably not right/yet at the top Nguyen, a not really elite and now old Reynolds. I would see a good chance they do worse vs Russia in that discipline than 2014 too.

Basically Russia vs Canada from 2014 to 2018 I would see Canada doing alot worse in pairs, and not much different in the other 3 categories, and except for ladies possibly worse in all the others Not sure how that would improve their chances.