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Thread: Chan's plans for the next quadrennial- your best guess

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tompson View Post
    Hopefully Chan has to get at least a medal of any color unless he wanna hear joke over him.
    Are Takahashi, Joubert, Suzuki, P/T, et al, jokes?

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Are Takahashi, Joubert, Suzuki, P/T, et al, jokes?
    Exactly. Or Asada, who didn't win a medal either in Sochi?

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    ^Why? He'll be 27 by then, and coming back after a break (though we don't know how the break will be). Few people have ever been contenders at that age. Chan's had a good run, dominating this entire quad. Anything else is basically a bonus at this point. I wouldn't think any less of him if he gives Pyeongchang a go and it doesn't work out.
    Not necessarily. While I do think that Chan will have to prove to the judges, public, etc. that he can still be competitive at that "advanced" age, for every teenage wunderkind like Adelina, Gracie, Yulia (and back in the day, Mao, Miki and Yuna), you also have Caro winning Olympic bronze at 27, P/T winning their Olympic medal at age 30, S/Z winning at ages 31 and 36, and S/S winning at ages 26/30 and 30/34, with Aljona going for another at age 34. I see your point about physicality being a key factor, but age alone isn't a deterrent to winning an Olympic medal or being of that caliber.

  4. #79
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    But Kostner wasn't doing quads year in and year out leading up to Sochi. She wasn't even doing the lutz for a couple of years in there, or 3/3s either, due to injury. But she was competing every year, although not necessarily dominating. It's Chan's drive to dominate that will ultimately wear him out before 2018 if he continues to compete on a regular basis. And if he doesn't compete on a regular basis, then sporadic rigorous training can lead to injury (which happened to Lysacek and Cohen).

  5. #80
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    ^^But the only person you've named that's a singles skater is Caro. (I'll add: Plush, Irina). Pairs/ice dance is a different matter.

    In singles, 27 really isn't the ideal age. Especially since Chan appears to have already peaked (unlike Javi/Machida/Caro, who were late bloomers), and is already getting outclassed technically (unlike Plush and Irina when they competed at that age).

    I'd be the last person to encourage anyone to retire the moment they peak, Ilia Kulik-style. I love it when the old-timers make it! (I've defended Aliona many times) But I'm just saying, there'll be no shame in Chan returning and getting no medal.

  6. #81
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    He's a beautiful skater to watch, and medal or none, it will be a treat to see him compete again. And if anything, it's commendable if he still wants to compete when the field will presumably have progressed. He must have been bored winning almost everything the past quadrennial, so it'll be nice to see how he stacks up with more of a challenge, now that his main competition has somewhat caught up to him artistically and are also themselves pushing the technical boundaries.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by anyanka View Post
    Not necessarily. While I do think that Chan will have to prove to the judges, public, etc. that he can still be competitive at that "advanced" age, for every teenage wunderkind like Adelina, Gracie, Yulia (and back in the day, Mao, Miki and Yuna), you also have Caro winning Olympic bronze at 27, P/T winning their Olympic medal at age 30, S/Z winning at ages 31 and 36, and S/S winning at ages 26/30 and 30/34, with Aljona going for another at age 34. I see your point about physicality being a key factor, but age alone isn't a deterrent to winning an Olympic medal or being of that caliber.
    Mixing pairs and singles skaters is pointless, as the ages pairs and dancers typically compete until, and hit their best at, is absolutely nothing like singles skaters. So eliminate every non singles example you referenced.

    There are a few exceptions like Kostner, Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, and I guess you could sort of say Plushenko although he was a shadow of his former self when winning silver in 2010, but those are few and far between. Very few skaters in history, including even the ones particularly noted for their great longevity (Arakawa, Kwan, Boitano, Petrenko, Hamilton, Cohen, Kim, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Lysacek, etc...) were either still competing or competitive at the very top if they were still, at the amateur level. You cant say Browning either who at age 26 had an awful final amateur season. Nor would I say Takahashi who as you can see is no longer competitive technically for medals, let alone gold medals. The three women I referenced never stopped competing btw, which also aided their competitiveness at an advanced age. Never even took a break.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Mixing pairs and singles skaters is pointless, as the ages pairs and dancers typically compete until, and hit their best at, is absolutely nothing like singles skaters. So eliminate every non singles example you referenced.

    There are a few exceptions like Kostner, Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, and I guess you could sort of say Plushenko although he was a shadow of his former self when winning silver in 2010, but those are few and far between. Very few skaters in history, including even the ones particularly noted for their great longevity (Arakawa, Kwan, Boitano, Petrenko, Hamilton, Cohen, Kim, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Lysacek, etc...) were either still competing or competitive at the very top if they were still, at the amateur level. You cant say Browning either who at age 26 had an awful final amateur season. Nor would I say Takahashi who as you can see is no longer competitive technically for medals, let alone gold medals. The three women I referenced never stopped competing btw, which also aided their competitiveness at an advanced age. Never even took a break.
    To be fair, he did win a GP this past season, with pretty great skates.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Mixing pairs and singles skaters is pointless, as the ages pairs and dancers typically compete until, and hit their best at, is absolutely nothing like singles skaters. So eliminate every non singles example you referenced.

    There are a few exceptions like Kostner, Slutskaya, Butyrskaya, and I guess you could sort of say Plushenko although he was a shadow of his former self when winning silver in 2010, but those are few and far between. Very few skaters in history, including even the ones particularly noted for their great longevity (Arakawa, Kwan, Boitano, Petrenko, Hamilton, Cohen, Kim, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Lysacek, etc...) were either still competing or competitive at the very top if they were still, at the amateur level. You cant say Browning either who at age 26 had an awful final amateur season. Nor would I say Takahashi who as you can see is no longer competitive technically for medals, let alone gold medals. The three women I referenced never stopped competing btw, which also aided their competitiveness at an advanced age. Never even took a break.
    So just Caro, then.
    I didn't finish my thought when the pairs / dance took me away mentally. Yes to Butyrskaya, Irina, Plushy too.
    And as others have pointed out: the quads alone would take their toll physically much, much sooner. How many surgeries has Zhenya had so far?!

  10. #85
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    ^13? If we count the one he just underwent.

    It's not just the active quad jumpers that have accumulated injuries though. Female skaters like Michelle and Yuna picked up a lot of injuries in their twenties (Michelle was only 25 when she retired. It's hard to believe it since she's been around so long, but I think staying at the top for so many years takes its toll).

    We could blame Yuna's condition on the poor training facilities. That's what Plush credits his injuries to as well (perhaps the same for other Russian/Soviet skaters like Urmanov and Fadeev, who were also quite injury-ridden by the end of their runs). Patrick does seem to have avoided most of this, so perhaps he'll be okay. I guess, to be fair, it's not so much age itself that stops you, but the injuries you accumulate over time.

    Also, it's difficult to stay on top for a long time. There are people who medalled at later ages (Caro, Evan, Paul Wylie, Shizuka, Maria), but they were rarely on top throughout their careers. They peaked later. I wouldn't say they're good analogies to Chan, who is closer to Irina and Plush in what he's attempting (if he goes for Pyeongchang). For a counter-example, you only have to look at the returning pros in Lillehammer...

  11. #86
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    My wish: Patrick compete at 2018 OG, and leave 2 clean programs. It does not matter whether he wins or not, as long as he is ranked high enough to enter the Gala, and Yuna will be invited to Gala (my dream) as well. Then they can hold hands and dance together for the last time. Then I can die in peace.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by yyyskate View Post
    My wish: Patrick compete at 2018 OG, and leave 2 clean programs. It does not matter whether he wins or not, as long as he is ranked high enough to enter the Gala, and Yuna will be invited to Gala (my dream) as well. Then they can hold hands and dance together for the last time. Then I can die in peace.
    LOL.. there is no need to 'die in peace'. I think Yuna is likely to grace 2018 PyeongChang Olympics. I cannot image she not skating as a special guest in the Gala.

    Patrick has not given any indication of skating in 2018. Four years is a fairly long time off. Much, I guess will depend on what comes along the next two years. He's going to Uni of Toronto (and I heard he's an Ontario scholar) and doing some show skating next few months. Perhaps the picture will be clearer in a year's time.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    To be fair, he did win a GP this past season, with pretty great skates.
    Yes but even you said he was overmarked in the short program there which was the base of his win (since Oda beat him easily in the LP). He definitely wasn't capable of being competitive with Chan or Hanyu this year, and probably not Fernandez or Machida on a decent day either. He could beat anyone else but there were atleast 8 others who could equally beat him this year on a given day also. He also never stopped competing unlike Chan who seems to plan (if he even competes again) a stop and go approach, but even with that the grand prix final last year was the last time he was competitive at the very top. By Four Continents and worlds last year he already seemed out of it as more than a possible bronze hopeful, too inconsistent and far behind in general technically, and that just accelerated this year. Still impressive to have hung on as long and well as he did mind you.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by yyyskate View Post
    My wish: Patrick compete at 2018 OG, and leave 2 clean programs. It does not matter whether he wins or not, as long as he is ranked high enough to enter the Gala, and Yuna will be invited to Gala (my dream) as well. Then they can hold hands and dance together for the last time. Then I can die in peace.
    I like this dream of yours. Not sure about the "die in peace" part, but Patrick skating with Yuna one last time = aww.

  15. #90
    “Our blade takes us in the most amazing places.” skatingfan4ever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yyyskate View Post
    My wish: Patrick compete at 2018 OG, and leave 2 clean programs. It does not matter whether he wins or not, as long as he is ranked high enough to enter the Gala, and Yuna will be invited to Gala (my dream) as well. Then they can hold hands and dance together for the last time.
    I LOVE THIS IDEA!!!

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