2 years maximum then retirement
2 years maximum then retirement
Chan really isn't my cup of tea artistically (he embodies a lot of what I don't like about COP, with the "hops and turns that are impressive but don't seem to mean anything"). But his skillset does seem to be a bit more even than Hanyu's (Dai is out because his quads are basically shot at this point. At least Chan tends to just step out of his axel).
Still, I don't know if Chan skating clean can win against Hanyu skating clean right now, because Hanyu has completely mastered the COP game. His base value is so much higher that Chan's components won't keep him ahead. I don't expect them to skate clean, of course--probably Hanyu with a fall on the quad salchow vs. Chan with a step-out on the triple axel.
At current state Hanyu is the best technically, and Chan propably ? ( he is not my cup of tea so I can't judge it properly : ( ) best in presentation .
The main diffrence is Hanyu is younger and should be better and better artistically, and even technically. I don't know what affect break will have on Patrick, but I would like to see their battles next season which will propably not happen sadly.
Chan, for me, isn't better artistically than Hanyu. *runs for the hills* But components include Skating Skills and Transitions, which Chan is very good at (Hanyu matches him in transitions, but not skating skills). But artistry is very subjective. The judges seem to like Chan's artistry even though it's not my cup of tea. Or they simply prize skating skills and match the other components to that. It would be interesting to see how Chan and Hanyu fare under an alternative universe of 6.0. Would Chan receive the higher presentation scores? (I assume he would because he's older and more respected, but what if we made them the same age in this fantasy world?)
The break will probably affect Chan technically a lot more than artistically. His axel is doooooooomed!!! (Kidding, well, sort of...)
Well, men field is much crowded eith talents right now, let's not forget Javi, Machida, the Russians (so many names to mention) and the Chinese so I think there will be more good fight. It's just I hope PChan will come back for at least one or two season. He still has lots to prove. He is the best all-rounded skater at the moment. I hope he will come back soon.
For how I see the artistry Dai is the most beautiful skater to watch out there. I'm so sad about his injuries.
I dont see any scenario Canada has a stronger team than Russia though. They will do well to repeat their 2014 silver over countries like the U.S who seem to have more promising up and comers right now than Canada does. For Canada I only see Nguyen and Daleman, but neither of those are sure thing prospects by any means.
Currently, there is at least W/P who should outskate any Russian team (unless I/Z or S/K rise to the top easily). I would also assume Canada might do slightly better in women's (especially since Osmond placed the lowest in the FS, so they can only place higher), and maybe even men's. Russia might continue to be as strong, but I think they maxed out how hard it is to beat them in Sochi. After all, they won't be afforded certain Sochi perks, like Lipnitskaia beating a clean Kostner in the SP, and Plushenko somehow beating Reynolds in the LP. They will be strong, but without home crowd advantage, IMO they've got nowhere to go but down.
I think Nguyen can do as well as Reynolds, and I think Daleman and Osmond can at least match Osmond's Sochi team event showings.
Like I said alot can happen in 4 years but I would guess Russia being just as dominant in pairs as they are today. Dance they werent the best in 2014 either, and they should atleast have a bronze contender or two for 2018, so be atleast on par with 2018. Ladies they are likely to be far more dominant overall than 2014 regardless who is on their team. Men well one would hope a more mature Kovtun is atleast on par with Oldshenko from 2018, and given how you have been hyping him I am surprised you wouldnt expect atleast that. Many of the potential top men- Fernandez, possibly Hanyu (who isnt likely to skate 2 programs for Team Japan again), Ten, wont factor into the Team Event much, or any, making a high finish and possibly even 1st for Kovtun if he is even a top 6 skater by then very possible.
Russia might not be stronger than 2014, but at worst they would only be slightly worse probably. However overall Canada is very likely to be weaker than 2014. Weaver & Poje by 2018 might be what V&M were in 2014, gold contenders but not a gold lock for the individual. I guess in a perfect scenario they would be the gold favorites in 2018, unlike V&M in 2014, but that is very far from a safe call now. Their gap on the Russian entry will probably be only equal to V&M in 2014 (which was a certainty to beat the Russian entry in both portions of the team event). And that is a very conservative and stingy estimate for the Russians, they might have someone to emerge who is more competitive with W&P in 2018 than any Russian entry was to V&M in 2010. Ladies Osmond/Daleman/Chartrand Dmight be better but whether she is giving up any less points to the Russian entry who knows. I see Russia making a large points gain in the team portion of that discipline just like 2014, if I had to guess now. I also see Canada very likely giving up more points in pairs than they did in 2014. I dont think their pairs by then will be as strong as they were this time. Duhamel & Radford are not even likely to be around by then, and if they are around not likely to be as highly ranked as they are today; and as I said I dont see any up and comers, and obviously you have a great team like M-T&M retiring. As for men, that is the hardest to project but most likely Canada will be much weaker than 2014 there too regardless if they are sending an old past his prime Chan, a probably not right/yet at the top Nguyen, a not really elite and now old Reynolds. I would see a good chance they do worse vs Russia in that discipline than 2014 too.
Basically Russia vs Canada from 2014 to 2018 I would see Canada doing alot worse in pairs, and not much different in the other 3 categories, and except for ladies possibly worse in all the others Not sure how that would improve their chances.
Ouch. But true. That being said, I'm not sure Russia will earn 19 points in men again even against a subpar Canada, regardless of whether they send Kovtun/Gachinski/Pitkeev/Petrov/some combination of Voronov, Plush, or Menshov who are magically still around. Granted, Russia doesn't need to earn the same number of points in men, if Canada ends up earning less than the 17 they did in Sochi (not unlikely).As for men, that is the hardest to project but most likely Canada will be much weaker than 2014 there too regardless if they are sending an old past his prime Chan, a probably not right at the top Nguyen, a not really elite and now old Reynolds.
I, too, am not seeing Canada overtaking Russia.
In general I dont see Russia slowing down or being any weaker than 2014, if anything maybe even stronger. They wont have the home cooked scoring they benefited from in Sochi, yet as things look now they will probably remain dominant or even grow more dominant in pairs, grow even more dominant in ladies and be able to win legitimately with one of their newer skaters rather than through corruption only as Sotnikova did in Sochi. Then if Kovtun isnt completely worthless (and I do think he is very overhyped) he should make Russia a bigger force than they have been in mens since 2010, and that includes Plushenko's brief return, which isnt saying much. It is true Plushenko did overachieve in the team portion of the Games for a variety of mostly coincidental reasons. Their dance should be atleast as strong as 2014 which was only being amongst the bronze pack contenders. Who knows they might be better than that.
By contrast Canada is very likely to be weaker. They are likely losing two of their biggest stars ever- Chan and Virtue & Moir, and even if Chan is in Korea he wont be the force of 2014. Those are big shoes to fill, and while I am sure Canada will have some to emerge someday down the road to fill them, I am not sure if anyone on the 2018 squad will fill them. They also will be hard pressed to have two very strong top 5 world pairs like 2014. As much as I like them it is probably unlikely Weaver & Poje will ever be as great as Virtue & Moir, not impossible, but probably not likely. Granted the field will be different so they could be equally as much or even slightly more (eg- maybe favorites for gold, although not outright predicting that) in 2018, even if they never reach V&M's level. Nguyen might never be as good as Chan, and even if he is someday it probably would be the post 2018 years. 2018 a good and more realistic situation for him would be to be where Chan was in 2014, where he will be the same age Chan was in 2010. The pairs are almost certain to be alot weaker in 2018. The ladies hopefully will be stronger, but I doubt they will be anywhere near Russia.
Now looking 4 years ahead is almost impossible anyway, and there will probably be many new skaters we dont know anything about now, some juniors we notice a bit now who will do things we arent anticipating, and others who dont. Some of the current skaters will surprise with what they do or dont do. However as things look now it would seem to point to a Russian team just as strong and a Canadian team weaker. So no reason to see Canada having anything more than a real outside shot at the Team gold in 2018 (and FWIW if Canada did win the Team gold in 2018 I would be thrilled).
It may be fun predicting the Olympics four years from now but really how good are people at predicting the outcome of a next day competition? Where were Hanyu, Sotnikova, and V/T four years ago in people's awareness as potential OG Medalists? And a kid from Kazakhstan to win an Olympic medal? Hey, maybe the next Olympic champions in Pairs or Dance will be from Japan! Or Brazil.
The only way Kovtun's going to surpass Plushenko's results in 2010 is if he wins OGM in 2018. I'm not seeing that in the cards right now. Unless you mean Plushenko (+ Gachinski/Voronov/Menshov) post-Vancouver up to present day, when he bounced from injury to injury and barely competed. In which case, yeah, Kovtun (+ Gachinski/Pitkeev/Petrov) should do better than that over the next quad unless he's totally useless.
EDIT: SkateFiguring does have a point though. I actually expect the next men's champion to be someone we haven't heard from yet.