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Thread: Chan's plans for the next quadrennial- your best guess

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Not necessarily. It's not about the depth but the best one in each discipline. US has more depth than Canada in most disciplines but came in third after Canada in Team event.
    Except this isnt even true as Sandpiper already pointed out. Canada is far superior to the U.S in both mens and pairs. Dance both countries are overall very strong. Only in the ladies were the U.S superior, and by a smaller margin than Canada's vast superiority in both mens and pairs.

    I have only been mentioning Russia and Canada, but in fact I think the U.S is a big factor for 2018 in the Team Event (as things look now, I already conceded alot could change), and will have a much better chance of beating Canada than they did in 2014 in 2018. Of those top three countries, they are in fact probably the most likely to have an improved team.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    US has many more good Men skaters than Canada which however has one top skater. In Dance, US had two Worlds medal couples the last quad whereas Canada had just one. Pairs is definitely a very weak discipline for the US, mainly because of lack of commitment and perseverance in partnerships.
    A point like the bolded is so meaningless. The Shibutanis despite their previous world medal were only the 3rd U.S team who had no chance of ever being used in the team event in Sochi, and were also clearly far below Weaver & Poje at that point.

    The U.S has so many good men?? Reynolds was 5th at worlds last year which doesnt make him any different than say Abbott or Aaron (the latter who wasnt even at the Games). Aaron in fact in his career year (thus far) last season was regularly losing handily to Reynolds in his own. Reynolds comfortably beat Brown in the LP portion of the team event as well. Reynolds, Aaron, headcase Abbott, Brown, not much difference in any of them, and Chan is about 3 levels above all.

  3. #63
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    Hm, Canada vs. USA in the next Team Event would actually be closer than Canada vs Russia (Russia probably comes out ahead unless they bomb). USA will win ladies. Canada will likely win pairs despite their pairs going downhill, simply because US pairs are worse. Canada will probably win dance too. Men is really an open field. I have no idea if Canada, Russia, or USA will be strongest by 2018. I'd say Canada is still favoured for silver over USA, but the chances of USA beating them for silver is greater than the chances of Canada beating Russia for gold. It all depends on win margins (e.g. if USA wins women by a lot, it won't matter if they lose pairs and ice dance by a point).

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Where were all these good men skaters over the past quad? I agree Canada isn't fantastic outside of Chan (as you can tell by my thoughts on Firus), but US doesn't have enough men to outweigh Chan.

    With Weaver/Poje's silver, I don't think Canada's behind the US in dance. Even if Canada is behind, the gap there is smaller than the gap in men and pairs.
    I was talking about about the last Olympics. W/P won Silver after, with the top two teams not participating.

    As for Men, it's exactly my point that all the many good American Men couldn't outweigh one Chan (or an over-performing Reynolds) despite the depth of the field. There are many very good and (at least once) promising US Men but they are not of the Worlds podium contending caliber, except for Abbott who tends to chock at major events. I think their best hope is in Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou in the not so far future. America got talents, but not a stand out star, like there is a glass ceiling.

    In Team Event, it's about the best in each discipline a country can produce, not about their depths or overall level.

  5. #65
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    Weaver/Poje lacking a world bronze doesn't make them a phenomenally worse team over the last quad than the Shibutanis. They've consistently placed 4-5th at Worlds while the Shibutanis have two 8th places.

    Chan is part of team Canada. His results are part of Canada's results. And the USA men can barely get past Reynolds. I'm not seeing any depth there. Abbott and Aaron went nowhere, and while I like Jason very much (that flexibility!), I wouldn't consider him a top skater at this point. Let alone over the last quad, where he spent most of it as a junior. Is there someone I'm missing?

    "Depth" doesn't refer to "My worst skater is better than your worst skater." It refers to having good skaters in every discipline, which Russia has in spades. Everyone else? Umm...

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Except this isnt even true as Sandpiper already pointed out. Canada is far superior to the U.S in both mens and pairs. Dance both countries are overall very strong. Only in the ladies were the U.S superior, and by a smaller margin than Canada's vast superiority in both mens and pairs.

    I have only been mentioning Russia and Canada, but in fact I think the U.S is a big factor for 2018 in the Team Event (as things look now, I already conceded alot could change), and will have a much better chance of beating Canada than they did in 2014 in 2018. Of those top three countries, they are in fact probably the most likely to have an improved team.
    I think with Chan out though, the US have closed the gap a bit. Reynolds is the main man, and he's a Laetitia Hubert, competitively-speaking. Abbott is the US version of that... however, the US also has Brown who is pretty much guaranteed a GP medal threat no matter what competition he is. And if Brown gets a quad, the US immediately becomes superior to Canada in the men's discipline, IMO.

    I hope the team event doesn't happen to be honest. It's likely just the US/Russia/Canada battling it out again. Unless another Kostner or Cap/Lan comes about for Italy, or Japan magically develops a strong pairs/ice dance team. Yawn.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Hm, Canada vs. USA in the next Team Event would actually be closer than Canada vs Russia (Russia probably comes out ahead unless they bomb). USA will win ladies. Canada will likely win pairs despite their pairs going downhill, simply because US pairs are worse. Canada will probably win dance too. Men is really an open field. I have no idea if Canada, Russia, or USA will be strongest by 2018. I'd say Canada is still favoured for silver over USA, but the chances of USA beating them for silver is greater than the chances of Canada beating Russia for gold. It all depends on win margins (e.g. if USA wins women by a lot, it won't matter if they lose pairs and ice dance by a point).
    This is hardly a certainty. Russia will probably win ladies... it's just a matter of which Russian lady. And there is up and coming talent in Japan, possibly even in Canada. Who knows, if South Korea gets a team together, and Park continues to do well she could also drop the US down a spot. Or even Li.

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    No, no, I definitely don't mean USA will win ladies overall. I meant they'd win ladies over Canada. "Win" = earning earning more points there than Canada.

    Canada isn't going to win pairs overall either. I see Russia taking that as well.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Weaver/Poje lacking a world bronze doesn't make them a phenomenally worse team over the last quad than the Shibutanis. They've consistently placed 4-5th at Worlds while the Shibutanis have two 8th places.

    Chan is part of team Canada. His results are part of Canada's results. And the USA men can barely get past Reynolds. I'm not seeing any depth there. Abbott and Aaron went nowhere, and while I like Jason very much (that flexibility!), I wouldn't consider him a top skater at this point. Let alone over the last quad, where he spent most of it as a junior. Is there someone I'm missing?

    "Depth" doesn't refer to "My worst skater is better than your worst skater." It refers to having good skaters in every discipline, which Russia has in spades. Everyone else? Umm...
    Yes, that's the issue. Russia has the strongest in every discipline. Currently, they have two of the top 2 pairs teams (so, at least 1 come 2018 if S/K stick around), they have the top ladies (and by 2018, they would split SP and LP between ladies), they have top 3-worthy ice dance teams with P/B and V/M and D/W moving on (probably this will be the other discipline they do SP + LP for the team event), and even their top man Kovtun is currently a top 3 worthy skater in the team SP and likely the top skater in the team FS (if we went by Worlds results, and assuming Japan/Spain doesn't make the team final).

    Until US develops a strong pairs team, and Canada develops a strong replacement for Chan, and Osmond step up their game. Otherwise it's another gold for Russia.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I think with Chan out though, the US have closed the gap a bit. Reynolds is the main man, and he's a Laetitia Hubert, competitively-speaking. Abbott is the US version of that... however, the US also has Brown who is pretty much guaranteed a GP medal threat no matter what competition he is. And if Brown gets a quad, the US immediately becomes superior to Canada in the men's discipline, IMO.
    Well yes and that is just one of the reasons I said I would forecast the U.S being a much bigger threat to Canada in 2018 than they were in 2014.

    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    I was talking about about the last Olympics. W/P won Silver after, with the top two teams not participating.
    and the great Shibutanis who are your example of the U.S having more depth in dance were 6th at the same event. Doesnt matter though, since they won a lower color world medal years earlier, and even though they havent beaten Weaver & Poje in over 2 years, or even Chock & Bates in over a year, they are what make the U.S so much deeper and stronger overall in dance somehow.

    I notice you completely ignored my point of how Aaron in his career year last year was consistently beaten handily by Reynolds, even getting crushed on PCS (their mutual weakness), and how Reynolds easily beat Brown in the team free skate (even if he finished behind in the individual). Reynolds has a higher international PB, a higher best ever worlds result, and a much bigger international win in his career. So what qualifies such skaters as "very good" and Reynolds somehow wouldnt be as well.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Meh, I only wish for P.Chan and Hanyu both will be back in the next Olympic and be clean in their FS because it was painful for them at Sochi.
    I hope Koreavengence will not happen, for the sake of figure skating.
    Yeah, I agree with your comment the most. I think Chan will eventually come back to competitions in the 2017-18 season and go to the Olympics along with Hanyu for sure (unless Chan looses momentum as he ages, but I doubt it). So his absence in the competitive figure skating field is only temporary.

    Korea will be an interesting place to host the Olympics, what I'm most happy about is their HD broadcasting and great videography.

  12. #72
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    Hopefully Chan has to get at least a medal of any color unless he wanna hear joke over him.

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    ^Why? He'll be 27 by then, and coming back after a break (though we don't know how the break will be). Few people have ever been contenders at that age. Chan's had a good run, dominating this entire quad. Anything else is basically a bonus at this point. I wouldn't think any less of him if he gives Pyeongchang a go and it doesn't work out.

    Unless you mean he ends up without a medal in the Team Event, in which case the entirety of Team Canada would be the joke.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tompson View Post
    Hopefully Chan has to get at least a medal of any color unless he wanna hear joke over him.
    Yeah, if he goes to 2018 and it doesn't work out, I don't think anyone would hold it against him. He's got 3 World titles and won almost everything, the OGM being the only major win he doesn't have. It's probably a crapshoot as to whether or not the men's field while remain consistent enough to prevent Chan from continuing to be a podium threat if he ever returns during the next 4 years. At the age of 27, Chan won't have to win a medal of any colour... if Takahashi stays on to 2018, is he a joke if he doesn't win a medal of any colour? I'd hardly think that to be the case.

    And as SP said, it'll be Team Canada who would be the joke if they were unable to medal in the team event. That being said, I hope the team event goes away. It was a fun experiment, but it's awfully predictable, takes energy out of the skaters, and it trivializes skating countries who aren't as well-rounded.

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    At the age of 27, Chan won't have to win a medal of any colour... if Takahashi stays on to 2018, is he a joke if he doesn't win a medal of any colour? I'd hardly think that to be the case.
    To be fair to Dai, he'll be 32 () by Pyeongchang, has already racked up a slew of injuries, and his quads are basically gone at this point. He never managed to dominate any era even in his prime. It'll be a miracle if he makes it to the next Olympics, even if he comes dead last. So it's reasonable to expect more from 27-year-old Chan. But calling either a "joke" is uncalled for, imo.

    I have mixed feelings about the Team Event. It does trivialize what past athletes have done, when Chan becomes two-time Olympic silver medallist in one go (despite only skating an SP and coming third in the segment). I dunno how I'd feel if I were, say, Elvis Stojko or Brian Orser. And not to mention people like Jeremy who were basically carried by their teammates. But I did find the event pretty fun and I hope it'll motivate countries like Japan to improve on their weaker disciplines. I wouldn't blame the men's splatfest on the Team Event--splatfests happened without it (2013 Worlds).

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