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Thread: Zijun Li vs. Kaetlyn Osmond: The Unsung Rivalry

  1. #61
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    The jump layout you show---3F+3T, 3Z, 2A, 3T, 3S, 3F, 2A+2T+2T---has only two combinations. So she's forgoing the 2A+3T for the 3F+3T? No real difference there, in fact she's losing a 2T.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    For her PCS to increase, Osmond needs to work on her overall presentation in her freeskates ... I find them lacking the right personality and presentation that her SP shows.
    This.
    I loved her SP but I found her FS missing something. I don't know what it was but I didn't like it.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The jump layout you show---3F+3T, 3Z, 2A, 3T, 3S, 3F, 2A+2T+2T---has only two combinations. So she's forgoing the 2A+3T for the 3F+3T? No real difference there, in fact she's losing a 2T.
    Sorry, she would add a 2T to her 3S or 3T.

    There isn't a difference since she still has a loop. However the 3-3 is more difficult. It's kinda like how Lipnitskaia has the same jumps with 2A-3T and 2A-3T-2T as she has right now (maybe slightly higher goe scaling).

    The only difference she can make is doing a 3L (or instead of the second 3T do a second 3flutz). Without a loop she can't do 7 triples, as is the case for several skaters who avoid/have avoided one of the 5 triples.

  4. #64
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    It's still the same layout as before. She can't do 3F+3T AND 2A+3T AND 3T because that would be repeating 3T one time too many. It's still a max 6 triples. There is also a new rule being proposed which would limit the repetition of doubles. Skaters wouldn't be able to do three 2Ts in the same program, making it necessary for them to learn 2L in order to do all the combos.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    It's still the same layout as before. She can't do 3F+3T AND 2A+3T AND 3T because that would be repeating 3T one time too many. It's still a max 6 triples. There is also a new rule being proposed which would limit the repetition of doubles. Skaters wouldn't be able to do three 2Ts in the same program, making it necessary for them to learn 2L in order to do all the combos.
    Then she changes the 3S+2T (or 3T+2T) to a 3S+2L (or 3T+2L). Or does a 2A+2L.

    I'm not saying she does 2A+3T and 3F+3T, just a 3F+3T (which gets slightly higher GOE if executed well compared to a 2A+3T)

  6. #66
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    GOE is +3 to -3, and is not based on the value of the jump, but on how well the jump was executed. A well-executed 2a+3t with great flow-out will get higher GOE than an eked-out 3f+3t.

  7. #67
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    But a +1 on a 3F is worth more than a +1 on a 2A. It works out to about the same in the end.

    But there's psychologically something "better" about doing a 3-3.

    Notice how Lipnitskaia switched to 3Z+3T instead of her layout with two 2A+3T combos that still achieved 7 triples (okay, 2 flips instead of 2 lutzes, but still comparable considering she usually gets a flutz call or two). The only reason her WJC FS doesn't have essentially the same BV as her Sochi team FS is because of the 3 jumping passes in the 2nd half versus 5 and the lack of a ChSp. So why does she switch to a 3Z+3T when a 2A+3T would suffice?
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wj..._FS_Scores.pdf
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/ow...S_F_Scores.pdf

    Same with Osmond. Yeah, she could stick with a 3F+2T and a 2A+3T, but it's more impressive if she starts with a 3-3... also, if the 3-3 doesn't feel right, and she opts to do a 3F+2T, she can then opt for a 2A+3T to still have a chance at 6 triples. Until Osmond gets a consistent loop though, it makes way more sense to do a 2A with good GOE.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    But a +1 on a 3F is worth more than a +1 on a 2A. It works out to about the same in the end.

    But there's psychologically something "better" about doing a 3-3.
    I think judges account for that greater difficulty in PCS. A 3Z-3T and a solo 2A has the same BV as a 2A-3T and a solo 3Z, but everyone knows the former is more difficult to pull off.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I think judges account for that greater difficulty in PCS. A 3Z-3T and a solo 2A has the same BV as a 2A-3T and a solo 3Z, but everyone knows the former is more difficult to pull off.
    Yup. Hence why Osmond moving to a 3-3 instead of a 2A+3T might (and should) actually improve her execution/performance scores.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Kostner's FS didn't have a 3-3 planned in her Worlds FS (and her 3F+3T was unplanned and fell), and yet her PCS was the highest at Worlds... not to mention, a personal best for her... with a fall. Lipnitskaia and Gold both fell in their Olympic individual freeskates, and got higher PCS than their clean individual FS. So, I'm not following this logic that Osmond needs to stop falling to bring her PCS up, when other skaters have fallen all year and their PCS has seen increases.

    For her PCS to increase, Osmond needs to work on her overall presentation in her freeskates ... I find them lacking the right personality and presentation that her SP shows. Obviously, skating cleaner will help (duh), but she's clearly shown that she's capable of skating clean competitions, she (like Gold and Li) just has to do it internationally. Doing an extra double axel instead of a 3L (which, mind you, Kim does too) isn't really a big deal either... it's less than 2 points of difference. Not to mention, she doesn't do a 3-3 in her FS because she doesn't want to use up the 3T as the repeated triple (note that skaters like Suzuki, Meite and Kostner employ this same strategy and don't go for 3T-3T in their FS).

    Next season, if she's in healthy form, her intended FS layout will probably look something like: 3F+3T, 3Z, 2A, 3T, 3S, 3F, 2A+2T+2T. If she learns the loop (which she doesn't attempt at the moment), then it could increase to 7 triples, but as Kim (who doesn't do a loop) and Kostner (who won Worlds without a lutz), it's not completely essential to have all 5 triples. Obviously Osmond isn't nearly the same calibre, but she's not giving up more than 2 or 3 points by opting for a 2A instead of a 3L.
    I don't agree that presentation is what's keeping Kaetlyn's PCS down. If anything, it's what's keeping it UP despite her usually skating far below her potential technically. Kostner gets high PCS because she has been one of, if not the best, skaters for the past 2 quads. Her skating skills are unmatched and her artistiry has reached a pinnacle point, and she has a great reputation because of those. Actually, Kostner shouldn't even be included in this equation because she's at such a different point in her career than Kaetlyn, and we all know how reputation builds over skater's career. Lipnitskaya, OTOH, gets high PCS because she has had a full season, and has been consistently delivering this season (and in the season before piror to her injury and growth spurt, and also during her junior season), rarely ever making mistakes. Yes, she did fall 2 or 3 of times this season, but she's still the most consistent competitor competing today. To compare her consistency to Kaetlyn's would just be laughable (Kaetlyn has NEVER even delivered a clean FS, and when she messes up, she usually makes 2 or 3 jump mistakes per program). Sotnikova has been lauded as "the next one" since when she was a junior. She was unbeatable and people were predicting her to become world and Olys champ in no time. Those results and reputation carried over to seniors when she transitioned and she's always been given favorable PCS treatment because of that. Kaetlyn doesn't have either: no impressive junior results and has no consistency to speak of. I think in order to start getting higher PCS (PCS that I believe would be more reflectiveof her true performance ability relative to her competitors), she needs to start consistently delivering at minimum 5-jump FS's, and attempts her 3f-3t consistently.

  11. #71
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    Lipnitskaia's PCS boost hasn't entirely been due to delivering all season - a lot of it has been Russia-devised boosting. Ever since Cup of Russia where she got a personal best PCS for a freeskate with 3 triples, higher PCS than her clean FS at Skate Canada prior to it. Lipnitskaia also failed to deliver in the Sochi individual FS where she also got a personal best PCS (and she also had a bad SP). And then at Worlds she had a poor FS but was essentially saved by Kostner bombing and Pogorilaya getting significantly lower PCS than her.

    She did however deliver clean skates at Skate Canada, Euros, and the Sochi team event, and was thus the most consistent skater this season. But it's inaccurate to say she delivered all season. And of course she's way more consistent than Osmond/Gold/Wagner/Li/Murakami.

    Consistency and PCS is a relative matter. Hanyu fell in every competition this season (except Finlandia where he singled a 3A), and his PCS still steadily increased in a manner similar to Lipnitskaia.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alba View Post
    This.
    I loved her SP but I found her FS missing something. I don't know what it was but I didn't like it.
    I think the issue is she's going for "classical" themes like Carmen or Cleopatra. I appreciate her doing a contrast to the flirty, va-va-voom of her SP, but she has yet to develop the maturity to convey a powerful female character of Carmen or a Cleopatra. I'd love to see her try something lyrical for her FS.

    She does diversify though... I loved her Indian SP from her breakout season.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Lipnitskaia's PCS boost hasn't entirely been due to delivering all season - a lot of it has been Russia-devised boosting. Ever since Cup of Russia where she got a personal best PCS for a freeskate with 3 triples, higher PCS than her clean FS at Skate Canada prior to it. Lipnitskaia also failed to deliver in the Sochi individual FS where she also got a personal best PCS (and she also had a bad SP). And then at Worlds she had a poor FS but was essentially saved by Kostner bombing and Pogorilaya getting significantly lower PCS than her.
    I love your description of "poor" free skates. Julia fell on a DG salchow, but she did complete 6 other triples, two of them lutzes. If Kaetlyn had had such a 'poor' FS she would have been in the top 10!

    She did however deliver clean skates at Skate Canada, Euros, and the Sochi team event, and was thus the most consistent skater this season. But it's inaccurate to say she delivered all season. And of course she's way more consistent than Osmond/Gold/Wagner/Li/Murakami.
    Interesting lumpage. Wagner has been pretty consistent all season, winning gold and silver in the GP, making it to the GPF and medaling there. The only place she was NOT consistent was US Nationals, which of course has nothing to do with international PCS. Gold medaled in the GP and was 4th at Sochi and 5th at Worlds; Li and Murakami medaled at 4CC. The only one in that lumped group who won no international medal this season was guess who?

    Consistency and PCS is a relative matter. Hanyu fell in every competition this season (except Finlandia where he singled a 3A), and his PCS still steadily increased in a manner similar to Lipnitskaia.
    Hanyu's falls were on 4S attempts. He finally landed the 4S successfully in his 2014 Worlds win. Hanyu has had the most technically demanding free skate this season; his presentation skills grew better with each performance, which is why his PCS steadily increased.

    Lipnitskaia has delivered clean 7-triple performances this season and previous seasons. In addition, her youthful appearance combined with her well-received "girl in the red coat" program has helped her to get those high PCS scores. You can pick at her occasional errors, but she has had far more perfect performances than marred ones.

    OTOH, Kaetlyn hasn't been able to deliver even one clean 6-triple performance on international ice. It's going to become harder and harder for her to impress the judges when there are skaters like Lipnitskaia, Pogorilaya, Radionova and Edmunds who can reel off clean 7-triple performances with ease.

  14. #74
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    I don't get why you're comparing Julia with Osmond... I acknowledge that Julia is far more consistent than Osmond. I was addressing the false statement that Julia delivered all season, which merited her PCS boost.

    It's ludicrous to think Lipnitskaia's PCS boost was all program related. She got a personal best PCS at CoR for 3 triples... her flawed individual Sochi FS was a personal best PCS too, compared to her clean team FS the week before. How does a skater go from 59 PCS for a clean FS at Finlandia to 70 PCS for a FS with a fall and a stepout in Sochi?! Must be the dress.

    As for Hanyu, he's fallen on his 4T and 3F this season (remember the Worlds SP and the Olympics FS?). He's also landed the 4S prior to Worlds, btw.

    "The only one in that lumped group who won no international medal this season was guess who?"
    Ooh, lemme guess, the only one in that lumped group who was injured and didn't even skate half of last season?

    The point of that "lumping" was that there were plenty of skaters last season who failed to produce clean skates most of the season, so to hold it against Osmond (who was coming off injury at that) is ridiculously lame. The closest skater who competed all of last season who skated the closest to clean and consistent was Lipnitskaia, and even she lost Russian Nationals due to an error in her SP, fell in her Olympics SP/FS, and fell in her Worlds FS. That's hardly "delivering all season", even she had the most clean competitions of any singles skater last season.

    And if you wanna give brownie points to Gold's SC bronze for holding off Gao/Lacoste/Hicks and Li's 4CC bronze for holding off Hicks/Imai/Chartrand, be my guest.

  15. #75
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    Hardly anyone goes out there and delivers a whole season of clean performances. Not even in the good ol' days did that happen on a regular basis. Granted, the women are much better than the men, but to call Yulia's 6-triple Worlds performance "poor" (and implying that she's lucky to even be on the podium) in this field is pretty unfair.

    I agree there were ladies in the past who were fiercer competitors than Yulia, but she is leaps and bounds ahead of Osmond, and I can't believe it didn't have a positive impact on her scores. (She got good PCS on bad skates partially because of terribly scoring on the judges' part, agreed... but also because she has delivered in other performances throughout the season and left a favourable impression).

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