Bored out of my mind. Who are some expected medalists or favorites?
Bored out of my mind. Who are some expected medalists or favorites?
Though most of the predictions you'll get will be wildly off mark (ex: Sochi), I really want to see Park Soyoun on the ladies podium and I think she has a fair chance to if she continues to improve and stabilize.
Barring some unseen catastrophe in the upcoming 4 years, Yuzuru Hanyu will medal. Javier Fernandez should as well.
For the ladies, I think we need a few more years to see how they adjust to their bodies. IIRC Yuna was 19 when she won gold in Vancouver and was able to maintain her high level, but a lot of these top women are 16 or 17 and still have some growing to do.
Proklova I think.
Too soon to really know as skating can change a lot in four years.
Ladies: I like Gracie Gold to at least be on the podium in South Korea. Japan will probably have somebody lined up, though I think Miki Ando is getting too old. Don't count out Russia. Yulia was really young and might be able to handle the pressure better in four years time. You could also see Adelina make a come back to try to get Gold #2. I agree that their body development coming out of puberty/adolescence is huge in how they make the adjustment. Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen made the transition well, but Kimmy Meisner did not.
Men: I agree that Hanyu should still be good in four years and might be a lock for a second OGM but I like some of the younger skaters coming out of the US like Max Aaron and Jason Brown (if he can find a quad between now and then.) I think Chan is done and will be too old to make a push and Evgeny will definitely be too old to keep up with the younger crowd.
Pairs: Who the heck knows. Who knows who will be skating with whom in four years!
Ice Dancing: I think that both Davis/White and Virtue/Moir have fuel left in the tank and if either one of these teams returns to competition they will be the odds on favorite. If both return it could go either way and the competition will be for bronze as it has been for the past two Olympic cycles. If neither one of them come back I like the Italian team, or Weaver/Poje to medal and I am hoping for improvement from the Shibs or from Chock and Bates to step up into Davis and White's shoes. I would've said the Russians, but they have been on a partner swap carousel and that isn't good for building momentum during the Olympic quad.
Who the heck knows. A lot can change in four years.
I agree that puberty/adolescence and the transition into a more womanly body can wreak havoc on a young skater. Look at what happened to Kimmy Meisner. I like Gracie Gold to push for medals and Japan is always good for a medal contender though I think Miki Ando will be too old to really push for a medal. Don't count out Yulia (four years might make a huge difference in her ability to control her nerves) or Adelina making a comeback to try for OGM #2. I think Costner and Kim will sit this one out.
Hanyu will be an odd's on favorite in the Men's if he stays in the competitive ranks. I also like the young guns coming out of the US in Jason Brown (if he can find a quad) and Max Aaron. I think Chan may be done and Evgeny Plushenko is getting too old to keep up with the younger kids anymore.
Pairs is a game of who will be still partnered up in 2018. Hard to pick a favorite there.
If either Davis/White or Virtue/Moir come back they will be the odds on favorites for dance and both still have some left in the tank for the next quad. If both come back it will be like the last 4-5 years where they will go back and forth and it is a 50/50 chance for either team to win gold. The real competition will be for bronze. If neither of them come back, look for Italy, W/P of Canada, and I am hoping an emergence from the Shibs (with one on one Marina time) or Chock and Bates to step up. I would've said Russia, but they are on the partner swap carousel which is never beneficial to building momentum towards the Olympics in a quad cycle.
I think it's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to even make a guess. So much can happen between now and then. All the skaters will be 4 years older, there could be injuries, more break-ups, growth spurts, loss of interest, coaching changes that don't work out, etc. I guess I'm not bored enough yet to go down that road.
Of course it's too early but it's a yucky rainy day in NYC, so what the heck?
I won't venture any real predictions; will just say that I have very high hopes for Jason Brown & Polina Edmunds. Gracie too, but my gut says that Polina is going to develop into a much more interesting skater, especially on the artistic side. Among non-US skaters, Park SoYoun (sp?) and Javier Fernandez. Yulia isn't one of my personal favorites -- although that could change, too -- but there's no doubt in my mind that she will be a major contender. Right now, she seems like the lady to beat. And if Adelina decides to try for a 2nd OGM...
Heartfelt wish from a long-suffering American pairs fan: the US produces a duo that will at least be seriously competitive even if they don't end up on the podium.
In Ice Dance, if D/W and/or V/M keep competing, more power to them! I'll watch them both till you-know-what freezes over but would also love for new couples to emerge.
Let the drama begin!
Sotnikova wasn't the favorite for gold...was she?
Plenty of unknown quantities though: Who predicted Tara Lipinski back in 1994 (what was Tara doing at the time)? Who predicted Shizuka Arakawa would win Worlds and Olympics by 2006?
Looking back over the last 7 or so Olympiads:
Pairs- Miskutienok & Dmitriev. Were already a known up and coming force in 88
Men- Petrenko. Was tabbed the likely 92 winner when he won the bronze at only 18 in Calgary.
Dance- Klimova & Ponomarenko- were the heir apparents at that point.
Ladies- Yamaguchi. Was already a well known junior hotshot.
Pairs- Gordeeva & Grinkov
Dance- Gritschuk & Platov
Ladies- Baiul- this one was completely out of the blue as nobody knew she existed in 92.
Pairs- Kazhakova & Dmitriev- I dont think this pairing was ever imagined in 94, nor Artur competing at another Olympics
Dance- G&P again
Ladies- Lipinski- not on radar in 94.
Pairs- Sale & Pelletier- nobody would have predicted them teaming up or being Olympic champion skaters in 98, but Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze could easily have been predicted.
Dance- Anissina & Peizerat
Ladies- Hughes- I dont think she was a known quantity even as a junior in 98.
Pairs- Totmianina & Marinin
Dance- Navka & Kostomarov
Ladies- Arakawa- anyone would have laughed at her as a possible OGM ever in 2002, and she was already well into her career at that point.
Pairs- Shen & Zhao
Dance- Virtue & Moir- many wouldnt have been surprised at that in 2006, despite that they were juniors then.
So out of the last 7 Olympics I would say there 6 out of the blue winners who were on nobodys radar an Olympics earlier. I would say those are Baiul in 94, K&D in 98, Tara in 98, S&P in 2002, Hughes in 2002, and Shiz in 2006. So yeah based on history there will probably be 1 winner who is somebody who we dont even know anything about now (or a late career blooming miracle like Shizuka who we would laugh at as ever being capable of such a feat ever in the future now), but there could be 2 or could be 0.