Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics
Bored out of my mind. Who are some expected medalists or favorites?
Though most of the predictions you'll get will be wildly off mark (ex: Sochi), I really want to see Park Soyoun on the ladies podium and I think she has a fair chance to if she continues to improve and stabilize.
Barring some unseen catastrophe in the upcoming 4 years, Yuzuru Hanyu will medal. Javier Fernandez should as well.
For the ladies, I think we need a few more years to see how they adjust to their bodies. IIRC Yuna was 19 when she won gold in Vancouver and was able to maintain her high level, but a lot of these top women are 16 or 17 and still have some growing to do.
Too soon to really know as skating can change a lot in four years.
Ladies: I like Gracie Gold to at least be on the podium in South Korea. Japan will probably have somebody lined up, though I think Miki Ando is getting too old. Don't count out Russia. Yulia was really young and might be able to handle the pressure better in four years time. You could also see Adelina make a come back to try to get Gold #2. I agree that their body development coming out of puberty/adolescence is huge in how they make the adjustment. Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen made the transition well, but Kimmy Meisner did not.
Men: I agree that Hanyu should still be good in four years and might be a lock for a second OGM but I like some of the younger skaters coming out of the US like Max Aaron and Jason Brown (if he can find a quad between now and then.) I think Chan is done and will be too old to make a push and Evgeny will definitely be too old to keep up with the younger crowd.
Pairs: Who the heck knows. Who knows who will be skating with whom in four years!
Ice Dancing: I think that both Davis/White and Virtue/Moir have fuel left in the tank and if either one of these teams returns to competition they will be the odds on favorite. If both return it could go either way and the competition will be for bronze as it has been for the past two Olympic cycles. If neither one of them come back I like the Italian team, or Weaver/Poje to medal and I am hoping for improvement from the Shibs or from Chock and Bates to step up into Davis and White's shoes. I would've said the Russians, but they have been on a partner swap carousel and that isn't good for building momentum during the Olympic quad.
Who the heck knows. A lot can change in four years.
I agree that puberty/adolescence and the transition into a more womanly body can wreak havoc on a young skater. Look at what happened to Kimmy Meisner. I like Gracie Gold to push for medals and Japan is always good for a medal contender though I think Miki Ando will be too old to really push for a medal. Don't count out Yulia (four years might make a huge difference in her ability to control her nerves) or Adelina making a comeback to try for OGM #2. I think Costner and Kim will sit this one out.
Hanyu will be an odd's on favorite in the Men's if he stays in the competitive ranks. I also like the young guns coming out of the US in Jason Brown (if he can find a quad) and Max Aaron. I think Chan may be done and Evgeny Plushenko is getting too old to keep up with the younger kids anymore.
Pairs is a game of who will be still partnered up in 2018. Hard to pick a favorite there.
If either Davis/White or Virtue/Moir come back they will be the odds on favorites for dance and both still have some left in the tank for the next quad. If both come back it will be like the last 4-5 years where they will go back and forth and it is a 50/50 chance for either team to win gold. The real competition will be for bronze. If neither of them come back, look for Italy, W/P of Canada, and I am hoping an emergence from the Shibs (with one on one Marina time) or Chock and Bates to step up. I would've said Russia, but they are on the partner swap carousel which is never beneficial to building momentum towards the Olympics in a quad cycle.
I think it's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to even make a guess. So much can happen between now and then. All the skaters will be 4 years older, there could be injuries, more break-ups, growth spurts, loss of interest, coaching changes that don't work out, etc. I guess I'm not bored enough yet to go down that road.
Landing 3As in my dreams!
Of course it's too early but it's a yucky rainy day in NYC, so what the heck?
I won't venture any real predictions; will just say that I have very high hopes for Jason Brown & Polina Edmunds. Gracie too, but my gut says that Polina is going to develop into a much more interesting skater, especially on the artistic side. Among non-US skaters, Park SoYoun (sp?) and Javier Fernandez. Yulia isn't one of my personal favorites -- although that could change, too -- but there's no doubt in my mind that she will be a major contender. Right now, she seems like the lady to beat. And if Adelina decides to try for a 2nd OGM...
Heartfelt wish from a long-suffering American pairs fan: the US produces a duo that will at least be seriously competitive even if they don't end up on the podium.
In Ice Dance, if D/W and/or V/M keep competing, more power to them! I'll watch them both till you-know-what freezes over but would also love for new couples to emerge.
Let the drama begin!
I wonder about that. Yulia's jumps are small and she has to spin very fast to get the rotation. Any sort of growth in height or weight is going to throw her way off, and her body is bound to look different in 4 years. A lot of skaters have to substantially rework their jump technique as they grow (Sasha and Mao come to mind) and I think Julia will have to as well.
Originally Posted by skatedreamer
I can see her being a medal contender, but I don't think she is going to have the consistency she has had in the past.
I wish Soyoun Park can be on podium. She has grace, and natural musicality. It is always pleasing to watch her skate. Also, her jumps are pretty good with correct edge technique. If she can practice 3lz3t and land it consistently, she might have real chance to be on the podium at worlds and GPF.
I think Gracie Gold will be on the top of the podium in following one,two years if she maintains her consistency. But at Olympics... Well, I don't know. In 4 years, many things can happen. In 2006, Who knew that Mao's jump would regress that much by the time of Vancouver?
3. Alaine Chartrand
Men: Call me crazy, but I predict someone we don't know about/haven't paid much attention to will get the gold. Yuzu has a good chance to repeat, but no man has since freaking Dick Button. He'll also likely get screwed over, being Japanese and competing in Korea. If Patrick returns, he'll get either silver or nothing. Javi and Machida have chances to medal, but they won't be young come Pyeongchang, so a lot can happen.
Ladies: A Russian girl wins (hopefully Yulia!) if there's no Koreavengeance or if anonymous judging gets kicked out. A Korean girl could pull an upset otherwise. And then we'll get more fights and controversy. (USA will get a lady on the podium, but it's not going to be Gracie).
Pairs: Can't say. Don't know who will make it to 2018.
Ice Dance: Either one of the drama-inducing Russian teams that came out of I/K split, with the other taking second. I don't think D/W and V/M will return, sadly. Weaver/Poje third.
Team: Russia, Russia, Russia. The US can pull an upset for silver over Canada though.
Yuzuru and all the Russian girls will have to skate their lights out in order to even contend for Gold in Korea. Giving even a tiny bit of leeway to the runner up will equate to them losing the OGM.
Not so sure Yuzuru gets the same type of hate in Korea that other Japanese skaters would. The Korean girls LOVEEEE him.
But if he is penalized for being Japanese, that means Japan and Russia would be out of OGM contention, so the winner might be Javier, a Canadian, or an American.