Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

This is hard to say. Nguyen will be a high hope for Canada. If he gets a quad soon (I'm thinking not a consistent one this season, but maybe the season after), he could be in contention for a medal. After all, very few people would have pegged Hanyu to win 2014 after the 2010 Olympics had ended.

D/R is going to pyeongchang?

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

This is hard to say. Nguyen will be a high hope for Canada. If he gets a quad soon (I'm thinking not a consistent one this season, but maybe the season after), he could be in contention for a medal. After all, very few people would have pegged Hanyu to win 2014 after the 2010 Olympics had ended.

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Okay. Then my prediction:

1. Dude we never heard about yet. Not Russian (vengeance), Japanese (hate), or Canadian (cursed).
2. Nguyen or Patrick, depending on the skating gods' feelings on Team silver
3. Yuzu

Happy? (Actually, I'm not happy because I want a medal for Javi. I think he deserved bronze in Sochi. Only ridiculously stupid/strict Zayak rules prevented that).

It is a long shot but hope Michael Martinez becoming the contender.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

This is hard to say. Nguyen will be a high hope for Canada. If he gets a quad soon (I'm thinking not a consistent one this season, but maybe the season after), he could be in contention for a medal. After all, very few people would have pegged Hanyu to win 2014 after the 2010 Olympics had ended.

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Yuzuru's rise was METEORIC. He blasted onto the scene in 2012 (for people who weren't keeping an eye on him since juniors), and then streaked to the top. Everyone was still saying he'll medal in 2014 and probably get the gold in 2018, but no one expected him to skyrocket just like that.

Also, how many years ago was Javier Fernandez dead last at his first Olympics?

Sandpiper said:

Nooo, Machida wants to retire after next season?! I'm not even his fan, but he has so much potential. His SP was beautiful. I want to see him nip at Yuzuru's heels.

Never, ever gold for Canada.

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Same here re: Machida; I'm embarrassed that I forgot about him. (still like Javi a lot, though).

Why never ever gold for Canada? No curse lasts forever -- it took the Boston Red Sox almost 100 years to win a World Series but they finally did it! :yay:

Sandpiper said:

Okay. Then my prediction:

1. Dude we never heard about yet. Not Russian (vengeance), Japanese (hate), or Canadian (cursed).
2. Nguyen or Patrick, depending on the skating gods' feelings on Team silver
3. Yuzu

Happy? (Actually, I'm not happy because I want a medal for Javi. I think he deserved bronze in Sochi. Only ridiculously stupid/strict Zayak rules prevented that).

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To be fair, Javier knew very well about the rules. What's stupid is that he pulled a Nobunari Oda and cost himself a medal. When you try 4 jumping passes that contain two 4S and two 3S, there's a huge danger if you triple a quad. Fernandez should have played it smarter and trained his final jumping pass as a 3Z or 3F or even a 2A.

lilahozi said:

Yuzuru's rise was METEORIC. He blasted onto the scene in 2012 (for people who weren't keeping an eye on him since juniors), and then streaked to the top. Everyone was still saying he'll medal in 2014 and probably get the gold in 2018, but no one expected him to skyrocket just like that.

Also, how many years ago was Javier Fernandez dead last at his first Olympics?

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That's my point. A skater's rise can be meteoric. Hanyu and Kovtun are two examples of that under this system. Even Brown was winning GP medals without any quad attempts. Nguyen could certainly contend for GP medals over the next few years, and with a bit of luck and good coaching from Orser he could be on the 2018 podium.

It's still early to say anything. A lot can happen in 4 years. So I can't tell who have the chance for now.

Barring all the stuff happening between Japan and Korea, I suppose all the Japanese skaters would have to skate their heart out just to have a chance of the bonze, even Hanyu. Koreans people will not happy if any Japanese skater will be on the podium, less alone the gold, they would hate it, very much. Any gold for any Japanese skater in 2018 sounds almost impossible.

Same thing would be applied for the Russians. But I don't know if the Russians men will be disliked as much as the ladies, though. This is politicking in figure skating, we all know it. Not to mention Korean Fed has just vote for anonymous judging.

Koreans seem to less dislike Chinese, so they might have better chances. :think:

Anyways, it's just my guess. Who knows, Korean fed might not care that much about figure skating as much as speed skating. I hope it will be fair competition.

I would say Yuzuru and Denis Ten to medal, Javier...I don't know. I have a feeling he will do something to blow it somehow (I do like him, it's just a gut feeling). I would love to see Jason master the quad and have a shot at a medal as well. Dark horse - Han Yan? At this point in time I don't see any Russian man that is a safe bet.

Way too early to say anything. Just for fun though:

Pairs- I think V&M have a great shot at repeating their 2 golds from Sochi, and S&K could end up on the podium again, or even gold if V&T somehow retire before then. The Chinese pairs could or could not be a big factor, hard to say now. Canada will not be a factor this time around. Savchenko & Massot have strong potential be contender for a medal, and possibly gold, but we have to see if they stay together and how they debut in the big events 18-21 months from now.

Men- Hanyu looks the obvious favorite to repeat for now (again alot can happen in 4 years). Fernandez could still be around and a strong medal contender. Brown, Farris, and Kovtun have potential to be contenders by then. We will probably see some newer Japanese threats emerge. I doubt Chan, Ten, Machida will be around or a real factor even if any of them are.

Dance- Alot will probably happen from until then. The way things look now Weaver & Poje could even be the favorites for the 2018 gold, but I dont the TPTB would be happy about that and would do anything to change this. Atleast 1 Russian team will emerge to contend, but I doubt Bobrova & Soloviev will be contenders at this point, if they are even around. Capellini & Lanotte are very unlikely to still be around by then, but you never know. Chock & Bates will be U.S #1 and medal threats. D&W and V&M will not come back.

Ladies- This is the hardest to say. I would guess neither Julia or Adelina will be on the 2018 Russian team though (although I hope I am wrong on Julia). It is quite possible even Radianova will be swallowed up by the Russian depth by then, although I would be particularly sad to see this. No idea who will be on the Russian team then, but all their reps will be medal contenders, although not sure if any Russian will be allowed to win at the next Games for the obvious reason. Gold should be a medal contender, and so should/could Edmunds. Wagner wont even make the team if she is around then. Either Osmond or Li have potential to be medal contenders by then, but everything would have to right for them from now until then. Same could be said for Chartrand and Daleman. Asada will compete in 2018 and will be a real contender for gold, and if it is at all close she will get every benefit from the judges this time around, unless there is a Korean who is a stronger contender. I hope Canada has atleast one medal contender by then.

Unsure if it's too early. Four years ago, after Vancouver, the following weren't really mentioned: Stolbova / Klimov, Yulia, Adelina (although to be fair she was already a Russian national champ then), Machida, MTM (v 1.0 and 2.0), D/R, Gracie, and all performed well this past season, with many of the above having medaled.
There was discussion of I/K and Yuzu, but back then the feeling wasn't that they would be prime contenders, let alone Olympic gold medalists, and both brought home gold from Sochi.
Maybe it's a bit premature? Nobody back then would have foreseen Yuko & Sasha having a disaster that took them out of the entire year, or that Caro would become arguably the most consistent skater of the quad and a medalist at the relatively advanced (for the sport) age of 27.
Although ... I will sit back and read all your predictions.

Ladies - Julia Lipnitskaya, Gracie Gold, Anna Pogorilaya, maybe Satoko Miyahara, maybe Polina Edmunds. I'm not sure about the other Russian ladies, like the very young ones or Sotnikova. I have no idea if Sotnikova will even still be skating in 2018.

Men - Hanyu and Fernandez if they're still skating, Denis Ten if he still is, and maybe Maxim Kovtun, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, and Max Aaron.

Pairs - With all the new teams, it's hard to say, but I think S/K will be in the mix for sure, and Duhamel/Radford if they keep skating until then.

Dance - I think D/W will retire so.. one or both of the newly formed Russian teams (I/Z, S/K), Cappellini/Lanotte and Weaver/Poje if they stay in (although I think the former will retire before then), Bobrova/Soloviev, maybe Chock/Bates, maybe Papadakis/Cizeron.

tommybuffano12 said:

1. Yulia
2. Gracie
3. Alaine Chartrand

1. Yuzuru
2. Kovtun
3. Nguyen

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Bold prediction for #3, but I wouldn't mind.. btw, I saw Miki Ando mentioned as not being a contender. I doubt she'll even be there. Didn't she retire from competition for good?

Four years ago, I expected the Sochi contenders are

Ladies - Asada, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Nagasu
Kim was a question mark. The new rules introduced after Vancouver were mostly negative for her. I think, if Mao had shown more consistency in the 2010-11 season, Kim wouldn't bother to do the "Plushenko".

Men - Chan, Hanyu, Gachinski, Kozuka, Brezina, Amodio
I was sure that Takahashi would be overtaken by Hanyu. No American would contend for the Olympic podium. Denis Ten was one rank lower as a contender due to inconsistency. Only Fernandez was totally out of the picture.

My deeper analysis....

Proklova - I just think shes the next big star and will establish that over the next couple years. Will be 17 going on 18, just like Adelina was for this Olympics.

Yulia - Has already made the commitment to stay around till 2018

Adelina - Its possible she could hang around with taking some time off but I sense she will retire by then

Pogorilaya - In the mix but might get passed by

Radionova - ditto

Gold - Can't get it done at 18, why would she at 22.

Edmunds - How much weight will go on that big frame

Other Russians - Serafima is prob the best of who I didn't mention. If the age requirement would be slightly changed then Gubanova would be a possiblity.

Other Americans - Girls like Glenn and Chen don't really impress me. So would have to look at young girls who are more like 11-13 now.

Ladies:
1. Yulia
2. Elena Radianova
3. Polina E.
Men:
1. Yuzuru for the repeat
2. Javier F.
3. Someone random

Dance and pairs---can't even guess. So many broken and new teams.

What would most of us have forecasted 4 years earlier, just to get an idea if this is even semi realistic to try. 4 years ago if I had to do a rough analysis who might be the contenders for 2014 I would have said:

Pairs- Savchenko & Szolkowy, Pang & Tong, Volosozhar & Trankov (I knew they were surefire stars the moment I heard they were teaming up, as I suspect most others did too) as the main gold hopefuls, and Sui & Han, Dube & Davison, Kavaguti & Smirnov as possible medal contenders. I also thought back than Canac & Della Monica would rise up the ranks and possibly be contenders by 2014. I never thought the Zhangs would make 2014, and if they did didnt think they would be contenders as they were losing favor with the judges even in 2010. Plus her growth spurt. I was mostly right on the 3 top contenders, but the lower medal contenders I mentioned all didnt even make the 2014 Olympics, and most were retired/split by then.

Men- I would have said Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka, Oda, Rippon would be the main contenders for 2014. Well Chan certainly was, and Takahashi still was a threat, but those others werent even at the Games. I wasnt sure Hanyu would rise up fast enough to even make the deep Japanese team for 2014 at that point, although I would have given him a chance to, and if you make the JPN. team you probably already have atleast an outside medal chance. I was always pretty sure Lysacek and Weir were non factors for Sochi whether they made it there or not, didnt expect Plushenko's comeback at all but as it was he was a non factor in the individual (not even skating), and I figured Abbott would always be too old to be a threat in Sochi (turns out the brain was still more a problem for him than his age though).

Dance- Well I think everyone predicted total dominance for V&M and D&W, and that is one thing we probably all would agree on. I thought V&M would continue to have the slight edge in the rivalry, and I was wrong on that. Pechalat & Bourzat hung on alot better than I would have imagined, I didnt see them even around in 2014 let alone going to the Games as the bronze favorites. I would have predicted Crone & Poirier and Samuelson & Bates to be up there and contending or a medal by 2014, and both teams were soon split up. I&K certainly looked like possible medal hopefuls in 2014 in 2010 too. I wouldnt have ever predicted Bobrova & Soloviev to still be Russian #1 going into Sochi Games (although they lost it in Sochi it turned out).

Ladies- I would have predicted Kim, Asada, Sotnitkova (who was being hyped to the skies already as a junior), as the main contenders for 2014. I figured the others in possible medal contention by then would be some assortment of young Americans, young Japanese, and young Russians. I thought at that point Rochette might try for 2014, and might be a medal contender, but not the gold, similar to 2010. I never thought Ando would last to 2014, let alone be a contender. I certainly didnt forsee Kostner whose career seemed to be tailing off in 2010 to last until 2014, let alone be a major factor.

Out of curiosity, don't you think there is a possibility of a Russian sweep? The Russian ladies seem really poised to attack this quad, and I haven't really seen that same imminence in younger skaters from other countries, BUT I don't follow juniors, so I may be seriously misinformed. Also, Kanako Murakami seems to be taking the torch for the Japanese ladies, so she is a contender for sure. Somehow, I see 2 Russian ladies and one Korean skater because of the home country fervor that will both or either motivate the skater and/or give them a judging advantage (Does this happen?).

I say this really not a fan of the Russian young ones as of now, but I have to admit that those girls have a sort of fire. My "choice" for the win would be Mao Asada Miss her and Yuna soooo much already.

I can't say much for the other disciplines, because I don't know enough. Yuzuru could medal again for sure, but there seems to be a lot of young talent on the rise behind him. Hard to say if this olympics is a peak or part of a plateau for him.

bara1968 said:

I wish Soyoun Park can be on podium. She has grace, and natural musicality. It is always pleasing to watch her skate. Also, her jumps are pretty good with correct edge technique. If she can practice 3lz3t and land it consistently, she might have real chance to be on the podium at worlds and GPF.

I think Gracie Gold will be on the top of the podium in following one,two years if she maintains her consistency. But at Olympics... Well, I don't know. In 4 years, many things can happen. In 2006, Who knew that Mao's jump would regress that much by the time of Vancouver?

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apperently, soyoun is practicing 3lz-3t combo! Even though most people in this forum cannot see, the practice video clip of 3lz-3t was posted on her official South Korean fan club website about a year ago! I think she is probably perfecting the combo in U.S, and the South Korean news channel already noticed that she might include 3lz-3t in her program in Grand Prix circuit, if early.