Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

pangtongfan said:

On another note it is quite unlikely Chan would even make the podium at the 2013 worlds if it were scored under 6.0, even with his obvious 1st place in the short program.

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Uh, how do you figure. Chan losing to Ten under 6.0, yes, certainly. But who in the rest of the field could have been ahead of Chan?

Chan obviously would have still won the SP under 6.0. But worse case scenario, Chan would have been 4th in the FS (although pangtongfan, you'd probably have him in 20th ). He easily would have beaten Takahashi. Chan's artistic marks also would prevent him from placing worse than Mura/Reynolds/Aaron... they likely would have beat Chan technically but Chan would edge them out with his artistic superiority. I'd picture something like 5.5/5.4 for Mura, 5.4/5.5 for Reynolds, 5.6/5.3 for Aaron, and 5.2/5.8 for Chan (although even 5.2/5.7 or 5.1/5.8 would place Chan ahead).

I think the placements under 6.0 would have been:

SP:
1. Chan 0.5
2. Ten 1.0
3. Takahashi 1.5 (his URs being overlooked - he might have even received 2nd place ordinals over Ten)
4. Joubert 2.0 (reputation + clean SP placed ahead of Reynolds)
5. Reynolds 2.5 (I don't think his quads would have been given enough credit as they are under CoP)
6. Brezina 3.0
7. Fernandez 3.5 (although there's certainly a case for him being placed behind Aaron, who was clean, whereas Fernandez singled his axel)
8. Aaron 4.0
9. Hanyu 4.5
10. Liebers 5.0 (although there's certainly a case for Liebers ahead of Hanyu, seeing as how Hanyu would have been hit hard for two significant errors, including a fall, and no combo)

FS:
Ten 1.0
Hanyu 2.0
Fernandez 3.0
Chan 4.0
Mura 5.0
Aaron 6.0 (although he arguably could be placed ahead of Mura)
Takahashi 7.0 (I can picture the judges throwing him a bone and putting him ahead of Reynolds, although if some of Reynolds' URs were disregarded he'd be ahead of Takahashi)
Reynolds 8.0
Rogozine 9.0
Joubert 10.0 (Liebers would be more deserving, but I'm guessing the judges would ignore Joubert's URs and the negated 3F at the end)

Top 6:
Ten 2.0
Chan 4.5
Hanyu 6.5
Fernandez 6.5
Takahashi 8.5 (although this would be due to artistic marks when arguably Reynolds and Aaron outskated him)
Reynolds (could be Aaron)

There is an unlikely scenario where Chan's artistic marks in the FS wouldn't be enough to put him ahead of Mura/Aaron in the FS (but I think most would agree that Chan's artistic superiority compensates for his technical inferiority to Aaron/Mura's FS). That would tie his ordinals with Hanyu/Fernandez, and thus they both beat him on a tiebreaker. That however is unlikely (not to mention, Fernandez and Hanyu might not have even been as high as 7th ahead of Aaron and 9th ahead of Liebers after the SP).

So to say that it's "quite likely" Chan would have been off the podium is ridiculous thinking - even for you.

pangtongfan said:

Sorry but just no. A program with 1 clean quad, but 2 clean triple axels and 7 triples overall by the short program leader would never be placed behind a program with a 1 clean quad, but ZERO clean triple axels and 5 triples overall, and even a miss on the only double axel attempt under 6.0 thinking. Not a prayer. And Chan's errors were just as disruptive as Hanyu's 2 falls, in fact his last double axel miss was the worst of all in that regard.

On another note it is quite unlikely Chan would even make the podium at the 2013 worlds if it were scored under 6.0, even with his obvious 1st place in the short program.

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Hanyu may have been the SP leader, but Chan is the "elder statesman," more respected/older competitor (which would help in the presentation marks, even though as I noted, I don't entirely agree with this), and the reigning world champion. That being said, if this had been 6.0, Chan might not have won a lot of stuff he did win, and he certainly wouldn't be reigning world champion. Hmm, if Denis Ten had been reigning world champion, would the judges have saved him after the SP (and no doubt given him the LP win), thus securing him a medal anyway? I need to check how many mandatory deductions he racked up in the SP though...

You do make a good point about Chan being axel-less. I can see the free going either way between him and Hanyu. I still give Chan the nod because of presentation marks + no butt-on-the-ice scenario.

Wasn't everyone sans Ten pretty messy at 2013 Worlds? Chan definitely wouldn't have won, but he would've had a podium finish. Even 6.0 can't do anything when everyone messes up. Yagudin won two World titles that way!

Sandpiper said:

I can see the free going either way between him and Hanyu. I still give Chan the nod because of presentation marks + no butt-on-the-ice scenario.

Wasn't everyone sans Ten pretty messy at 2013 Worlds? Chan definitely wouldn't have won, but he would've had a podium finish. Even 6.0 can't do anything when everyone messes up.

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Yup.

And yup.

I'm curious to see which 3+ skaters pangtongfan would have ended up ahead of Chan under 6.0 at 2013 Worlds -- hopefully he'll actually take the short program into consideration. :sarcasm: It's futile though, because he probably believes Chan deserved 4.5 technical/4.9 artistic for the FS (and 5.8 technical/5.3 artistry for his clean SP, at that).

I also wondered how would be TES of top3 of Salt Lake Yagudin, Plushenko and Goebel under COP, but didn't had time yet count it :scratch:

HanDomi said:

It is more interesting how Hanyu would be scored on SP under 6.0. I can definitely see couple 6.0's for technical and presentation, and judges could destroy chances Chan after step out of axel after Hanyu's performance, but that would be unlikely because of Chan reputation as World Champion.

I also wondered how would be TES of top3 of Salt Lake Yagudin, Plushenko and Goebel under COP, but didn't had time yet count it :scratch:

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The TES of Yag/Plush/Goebel would be interesting to count (at least the base value). I'm pretty sure Goebel would easily outscore them, especially given Yags doubling the flip and Plushenko doubling the salchow.

In Sochi, I'm pretty sure Hanyu would have had probably 5.8's across the board for presentation, and 5.9's across for technical. Bear in mind Chan, Fernandez, and Takahashi had yet to skate. Chan would have probably had 5.6/5.9 for technical/artistic... maybe 5.7/5.9 if the judges were being generous.

pangtongfan said:

There isnt a single competition in his life Chan would actually benefit from 6.0.

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What about the Grand Prix Final 2013/2014? :sarcasm:

Let me guess, you would have still had Hanyu first in the FS with a fall and given Chan artistic marks no greater than 5.2, right?

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

The TES of Yag/Plush/Goebel would be interesting to count (at least the base value). I'm pretty sure Goebel would easily outscore them, especially given Yags doubling the flip and Plushenko doubling the salchow.

In Sochi, I'm pretty sure Hanyu would have had probably 5.8's across the board for presentation, and 5.9's across for technical. Bear in mind Chan, Fernandez, and Takahashi had yet to skate. Chan would have probably had 5.6/5.9 for technical/artistic... maybe 5.7/5.9 if the judges were being generous.

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Goebel would win with BV. Plushenko with GOE. Yagudin with PCS. Though I will add--the margin between Plushenko and Yagudin's GOEs and PCS will be far smaller than either of their margins vs. Goebel. Goebel's PCS will be nowhere--I can't see him winning the free. Even under 6.0, Yagudin and Plushenko probably had about four fall cushions between them.

Considering the skate order, I don't think Hanyu would've gotten any 6.0s. In fact, I'm not sure he would've even gotten 5.9 technical merit. Before everyone freaks out: keep in mind, under 6.0, a quad in combination was seen as more valuable than any kind of 3-3, even if the 3-3 happened past the halfway mark (especially in an SP). Chan's SP, skated cleanly, would outscore Hanyu's under 6.0 in both artistic and technical. The mandatory deduction for step-out was... 0.2-0.3? I can see Chan getting 5.7/5.9.

Yup, that was the reasoning behind my scores for them. I agree that he might not have gotten 5.9 technical merit for sure, given the skate order, but that was a SUBLIME short program and technically perfect, so they would have to almost give him 5.9 instead of 6.0. Artistically is where the judges would "leave room", hence 5.9/5.8 would be the score I'd imagine he would receive. It's still enough room for a perfect Chan (5.9/6.0), a perfect Takahashi (5.9/5.9), and a perfect Fernandez (6.0/5.8) to squeeze past in case they went clean and judges felt they did better than Hanyu.

Chan would have had max 5.7 with his stepout (mandatory 0.3) deduction. But I can picture his 4-3 ensuring that he went no lower than 5.7.

Meoima said:

1) for sure many Korean fans are classy. I have made friends with some of them on Instagram and I can see their warmness towards all skaters, regardless of their nationalities. they are very cute and supportive.

2) but as you say, the Korean fed wouldn't like to see Japan flag on the podium. That is very likely. So I am not optimistic about the chances of Japanese skaters getting gold or silver medal. Bronze might be already generous.
Well, it's politicking, it's not the fans' wishes. We all know that. The problem of this sport is, all the federations have different ideas to the fans

3) same thing might be applied to the Russian girls. I am very curious if Korean fed would rather let a Japanese girl on the podium than Adelina Sonitkova or any of Tarasova's students?
As for the Russian men, I am not sure how much dislikeness they will get from Korean fed, though. Maybe Korean fed will not care too much, but who knows.

4) I don't think Mao will continue to 2018, though. She doesn't seem to show much motivation at this point.

Last but not least, It's just my wistful thinking about the politicking of the federations. We all know how dubious all the feds are. But that doesn't mean it will happen that way. Things might be much much better than Sochi.

The actual fans of figure skating, are in fact, very supportive of all skaters, regardless of their nationalities. It's all the feds I am worried about.

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Just an amusing fact. According to the report of "Pew Research" (Sep 3, 2013) only two countries had a positive image of Russia: Greece (63% favorable) and South Korea (53 %, ).
Now Viktor Ahn, Adelina Sotnikova and Alexander Kerzhakov left us with the only friendly country

Rhodium said:

Just an amusing fact. According to the report of "Pew Research" (Sep 3, 2013) only two countries had a positive image of Russia: Greece (63% favorable) and South Korea (53 %, ).

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This is a complete misreading, intentional or unintentional, of the survey, by counting only the countries with over 50% favorable opinion of Russia. Taking away the "No Opinion" option, many more countries view Russia favorably. In fact, clearly near the top of the article is the summery chart of 36 favorable vs 39 unfavorable, with 19 "Don't Know".

Eta. It would be a very different story if population instead of numbers of countries are used. And, I find it very "interesting" that India, with 17.5% of the world's population, is not included in the survey.

Today, Russia must be one of the least favored countries in the world. It could be challenged only by N Korea and Iran. Maybe China is an exception. They are happy to find a "partner" of the anti-American league of authoritarian states.

I think the gold medalist in at least one of the disciplines will be someone we're not considering right now...

a_reader said:

I think the gold medalist in at least one of the disciplines will be someone we're not considering right now...

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Likely. I don't think many were considering Sotnikova the favourite for gold four years ago, and some were saying Hanyu had a shot, but some thought 2018 would be his year.

Sotnikova wasn't the favorite for gold...was she?

AsadaFanBoy said:

Sotnikova wasn't the favorite for gold...was she?

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She's more like a gold medal hopeful along with Liza rather than a favourite

AsadaFanBoy said:

Sotnikova wasn't the favorite for gold...was she?

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Looking back, nope. She was still in the junior ranks, and with Yuna, Mao, Caro, Miki still competing, and Leonova making a splash at 2011 worlds, Adelina wasn't certain to make her mark in time for 2014. But I concur with blue_idealist in that we had presumed she wouldn't really reach her peak until 2018. Back in 2010, no one predicted Yulia, who was only 10(!!!) at the time of the Vancouver games. Yikes, we're old!

AsadaFanBoy said:

Sotnikova wasn't the favorite for gold...was she?

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No but back in 2011 some over excited people were saying she was going to be the favorite in Sochi just because she had dominated the Junior GP that season. Remember back in 2011 no one thought Yuna was going to come back in 2014 and Mao and Carolina were struggling too so it seemed a possiblity even though it was remote. How ironic that she did win the Gold medal. hwell:

Plenty of unknown quantities though: Who predicted Tara Lipinski back in 1994 (what was Tara doing at the time)? Who predicted Shizuka Arakawa would win Worlds and Olympics by 2006?

As for Hanyu, I was convinced that he'd be the contender for Sochi when he landed the 4T in the first attempt at 2010 NHK trophy. Also Sotnikova would be the contender because Sochi is in Russia.

Sandpiper said:

Plenty of unknown quantities though: Who predicted Tara Lipinski back in 1994 (what was Tara doing at the time)? Who predicted Shizuka Arakawa would win Worlds and Olympics by 2006?

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Tara wasnt on the radar for 98 yet in 94 (she was by 95 however). Shizuka looked like a career journeywomen soon to retire in 2002 so would never have been considered for a medal in 2006 at that point, let alone gold.

Looking back over the last 7 or so Olympiads:

1992:

Pairs- Miskutienok & Dmitriev. Were already a known up and coming force in 88
Men- Petrenko. Was tabbed the likely 92 winner when he won the bronze at only 18 in Calgary.
Dance- Klimova & Ponomarenko- were the heir apparents at that point.
Ladies- Yamaguchi. Was already a well known junior hotshot.


1994:

Pairs- Gordeeva & Grinkov
Men- Urmanov
Dance- Gritschuk & Platov
Ladies- Baiul- this one was completely out of the blue as nobody knew she existed in 92.


1998:

Pairs- Kazhakova & Dmitriev- I dont think this pairing was ever imagined in 94, nor Artur competing at another Olympics
Men- Kulik
Dance- G&P again
Ladies- Lipinski- not on radar in 94.


2002:

Pairs- Sale & Pelletier- nobody would have predicted them teaming up or being Olympic champion skaters in 98, but Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze could easily have been predicted.
Men- Yagudin
Dance- Anissina & Peizerat
Ladies- Hughes- I dont think she was a known quantity even as a junior in 98.


2006:

Pairs- Totmianina & Marinin
Men- Plushenko
Dance- Navka & Kostomarov
Ladies- Arakawa- anyone would have laughed at her as a possible OGM ever in 2002, and she was already well into her career at that point.


2010:

Pairs- Shen & Zhao
Men- Lysacek
Dance- Virtue & Moir- many wouldnt have been surprised at that in 2006, despite that they were juniors then.
Ladies- Kim


So out of the last 7 Olympics I would say there 6 out of the blue winners who were on nobodys radar an Olympics earlier. I would say those are Baiul in 94, K&D in 98, Tara in 98, S&P in 2002, Hughes in 2002, and Shiz in 2006. So yeah based on history there will probably be 1 winner who is somebody who we dont even know anything about now (or a late career blooming miracle like Shizuka who we would laugh at as ever being capable of such a feat ever in the future now), but there could be 2 or could be 0.