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Thread: Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Then how do you explain it when skaters like Lipnitskaia and Gold land 7 triples in the team FS and then their PCS rise for 6 triples (and a fall) in the individual FS?
    This is a good example of why you can't compare PCS from event to event. In the team LP, you had only 5 skaters so there was plenty of room to spread marks around as needed, and no need to use the upper end of the spectrum. In the individual LP, you had 24 skaters in which to use that same spectrum, so both the lower end and higher end are going to be utilized more. In the case of medal contenders like Gracie and Julia who skate later in the evening, they are going to benefit from the judges placing their marks ahead of skaters who performed well earlier in the evening.

  2. #137
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    Or it's a good example of PCS being a free-for-all point grab with no benchmarks, which renders it moot as a standard of measurement.

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilahozi View Post
    Or it's a good example of PCS being a free-for-all point grab with no benchmarks, which renders it moot as a standard of measurement.
    Anything subjective is going to be considered "moot as a standard of measurement" if people don't like the outcome.

  4. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    For me, the increasing penalty doesn't make sense. The difference between a 1 fall and 2 fall program is the same as the difference between a 2 fall and a 3 fall program. If anything, the first fall is worse because it mars and otherwise clean program, whereas the second fall is already part of a tarnished outing.
    My thought is, the first fall is a mistake and it does mar the program, but it can be forgiven as one single error in an otherwise good performance. However, if you fall multiple times, the program as a whole starts looking exponentially sloppier. The increasing deductions is to account for the increasing sloppiness in the program. Ideally, this should be reflected in PCS and we wouldn't even need this, but currently sloppy programs aren't getting PCS hits or said hits aren't that severe. (See: Kostner gets higher PCS than Mao Asada for that mess of an LP at Worlds 2014).

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Chan has gotten -2 for falls from judges a few times, at least in the past.
    Pretty sure he got a couple of -1s for a fall at Skate Canada a couple years back.

    I don't care how pretty the rest of the jump was, if you fall, -3. Nothing else. No other bullet points. All other GOE wiped.

    I would also support a rise in the deduction - but perhaps as a percentage of the base value of the jump, instead of a fixed rate. That way, falls at the lower levels where kids are doing singles aren't punished worse than falls at the higher levels where guys are doing quads, but the quad guys are appropriately punished, rather than a pathetic -1 like they are now.

  6. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Anything subjective is going to be considered "moot as a standard of measurement" if people don't like the outcome.
    There are different degrees of irrelevancy. Sure PCS is subjective, but if it had some consistency between competitions, it could be used as a proxy for the range where a skater's artistic capabilities falls in. Right now, it just skeedle-daddles all over the place.

  7. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    This is a good example of why you can't compare PCS from event to event. In the team LP, you had only 5 skaters so there was plenty of room to spread marks around as needed, and no need to use the upper end of the spectrum. In the individual LP, you had 24 skaters in which to use that same spectrum, so both the lower end and higher end are going to be utilized more. In the case of medal contenders like Gracie and Julia who skate later in the evening, they are going to benefit from the judges placing their marks ahead of skaters who performed well earlier in the evening.
    I agree that's what happens, but that is completely poor form. PCS shouldn't be scaled on a spectrum based on skate order, otherwise it a) forgives errors made by skaters who skate later on, b) it gives a false sense of whether a skater actually deserved the components they received, c) it prevents "lesser" skaters from being rewarded for much cleaner skates. PCS should be given based on the criteria asked of skaters. Otherwise you get skaters falling/popping jumps and still getting personal best PCS. It's absolutely ridiculous that Julia's FS was a personal best PCS and Gold's FS was a personal best PCS for her, when they were cleaner in the team FS. And how do you explain Kostner getting personal best PCS when the field was the same size as the Olympics and yet she was terrible in comparison. I understand why judges can give extra PCS for performance and interpretation (even though errors should mitigate that), but there's no reason transitions and choreography and skating skills should have increased from one to the other, especially with a fall (and the exact same choreography).

    A skater should get personal PCS because they earned it, not because they benefited from skating later in a field of 24 skaters or whatever.

  8. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Indeed it was enough because PChan's BV was 80.37 and Yuzuru's BV was 88.52
    Even a fall on the 4S, his BV was still much higher.
    You can check it here: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

    Edited: and PChan's GOE (16.76) was much much higher than Hanyu(13.51).
    Chan's GOE was actually generous. This suggests Hanyu not falling would have only barely beaten Chan on GOE (assuming some +GOE for his landed quad salchow). Chan's jumps were all clean but may were tight and no as well as he usually does, and Hanyu does alot of the jumps better anyway. The non jump elements arent much different either way. So no way should Chan have collected that many GOE points especialy in comparision to Hanyu that event.

  9. #144
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    ^^^ What CSG said (in post 149).

    Theoretically, wasn't CoP supposed to eliminate the need for "leaving room" for later skaters, as was the practice under 6.0? It doesn't seem to have made much difference on that front.

    I would think scores for choreography & transitions could vary between competitions b/c the judges are different (deja vu for subjectivity and the "human" factor). Still, the difference shouldn't be huge, assuming that the choreo is the same.
    Last edited by skatedreamer; 06-17-2014 at 08:28 PM. Reason: pangtongfan got there ahead of me :)

  10. #145
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    Too soon to tell but I would love to see Lipnitskaya wearing a medal in ladies.

  11. #146
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    For predictions, I really hope for Yulia, Kim Yuna or Mao to get on the podium for women (hopefully Mao and Yuna re-consider retiring). For men, hopefully Hanyu can repeat a OGM and perhaps another new skater will emerge by 2018, who knows.

    The ongoing debate over GOEs and points given is really interesting to read, I went through reading the pages from the beginning and the whole conversation got me thinking about the ISU judging system.

    What makes Olympics so special is the fact that it only happens every four years; if it was a competition that happened every year, not that many people would look forward to it. It's great anticipating who'll be top 3 in each division, but overall a lot of things will change over the course of four years.

    Two questions: Will Chan compete at the 2018 Olympics after getting silver in Sochi? Would he even be a contender for medals at that point? (referring to him aging)

  12. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatedreamer View Post
    ^^^ What CSG said (in post 149).

    Theoretically, wasn't CoP supposed to eliminate the need for "leaving room" for later skaters, as was the practice under 6.0? It doesn't seem to have made much difference on that front.

    I would think scores for choreography & transitions could vary between competitions b/c the judges are different (deja vu for subjectivity and the "human" factor). Still, the difference shouldn't be huge, assuming that the choreo is the same.
    Yeah it was supposed to allow skaters to be marked absolutely, rather than relatively. Although, it's apparent that judges still scale GOE to suit their favourites and hold back less established skaters (even ones who skate much more cleanly).

  13. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I dont know if I am in favor of giving no points for a jump you fall on. What I am in favor of though is a very hard penalty for multiple falls. So perhaps a 2nd fall getting -6s in GOE from the judges and an extra 3 points rather than extra 1 point off on top of that. A 3rd fall -10s in GOE from the judges and an extra 6 points off. A 4th fall -15s in GOE and an extra 10 points off on top of that (eg- at that point you might as well just skate off the ice, not almost win a grand prix event as Chan once did with 4 falls in his LP). This would have prevented alot of the debacles past, especialy ones involving a certain infamous Canadian skater. A skater would still feel it was worthwhile taking risks, I mean you could still fall once and step out/err in some non fall way on an addition jump or two, and not be hurt anymore than now. If you are taking risks that the odds of falling twice or more are good, or you simply happen to skate that bad that day, you should be hit hard regardless, and much harder than we have seen in some recent years.
    If this was how scoring went, Hanyu would be Olympic silver medalist given his multiple falls in Sochi. And your favourite infamous Canadian skater would have won.

  14. #149
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    Y'know, I wonder... would Chan have won Sochi under 6.0? I really think he could've. He would've been behind in the SP, no question, but that doesn't matter as long as he wins the LP. Hanyu had one extra clean triple in the LP, but the fact he fell twice (full-on splat on the 4S) would've killed both technical and presentation marks. Whereas Chan did have multiple errors but they were not as severe. Now, I personally think Hanyu performed the hell out of his program after those two falls, whereas Chan was deer-in-the-headlights the whole way through, culminating in a missed double axel and a botched final spin. However, I think the judges would find Hanyu's errors more egregious and place him below Chan in the free, giving Chan the gold.

    (Note: Though I like Chan only slightly more than Pangtongfan does , I actually wouldn't mind this possible 6.0 scenario where he wins. He and Hanyu were equally messy and it could've gone either way on the free).

    Quote Originally Posted by Esopian View Post
    Two questions: Will Chan compete at the 2018 Olympics after getting silver in Sochi? Would he even be a contender for medals at that point? (referring to him aging)
    1) I personally don't think he'll be there, but who can say at this point? He says he wants to go for it but four years is a long time.

    2) He'll be a contender for medals, but not gold, I think.

  15. #150
    Landing 3As in my dreams! skatedreamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Yeah it was supposed to allow skaters to be marked absolutely, rather than relatively. Although, it's apparent that judges still scale GOE to suit their favourites and hold back less established skaters (even ones who skate much more cleanly).
    "Reputation" judging is even more frustrating to me than the "leaving room" concept. If an unknown skater performs better on a given day than the rest of the field, he/she should be rewarded for it. If Mr. Nobody out-skates Mr. Somebody, he wins -- why would a resume factor into the equation at all? Past performances, no matter how wonderful, shouldn't trump the present.

    Just blowing off a little steam...

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