I hope a post-pubescent, high jumping Lipnitskaia wins OGM.
I hope a post-pubescent, high jumping Lipnitskaia wins OGM.
If anything, Hanyu in Sochi was saved by CoP base value, GOE and bonus. Back then, his fall on his 4S wouldn't have counted as though he had executed a perfect triple lutz (as it is now), it would have been a deduction of at least 0.2 (0.4 if we're going by mandatory SP deductions). His maximum technical mark in the FS would have had to be no greater than a 5.6, and Chan could have been anywhere from 5.4-5.6 depending on how harsh the judges wanted to be, but then made up for it with 0.1-0.2 higher than Hanyu in artistic presentation.
As much as he made errors and stepouts, he still stayed on his feet, and with his obvious artistic superiority over Hanyu (which of course you're too deluded by hate to acknowledge), I'm pretty sure Chan would have won under 6.0. Same goes for the GPF. And Machida would have won Worlds because Hanyu would (and should) have been 4th behind Verner under 6.0.
Hmm, let's try to look at it with 6.0 eyes:
Fernandez: 2 clean quads + 4 clean triples (-GOE on the axel, can't remember what he did on it, was it 6.0 clean? Not counting the 3S since it was repeated).
Ten: 1 quad + 8 triples
Hanyu: 1 quad + 6 credited triples, but would be 7 under 6.0; two falls
Chan: 1 quad + 5 triples
Machida: 1 quad + 7 triples; one fall
(Didn't include Takahashi because he couldn't land a clean quad in either program. That would've knocked him out in 6.0 as surely as it did in COP.)
I don't think there were mandatory fall deductions in the LP under 6.0, so considering SP deductions is pointless.
Ten's cleanish skate would be considered most suitable for 6.0, but both he and Machida wouldn't have made the final group after their SPs (Machida fell in the LP too). That would've hurt their marks. Thus... if this had been 6.0, would we have Javier Fernandez as Olympic champion? He would've gotten a deduction for the Zayaking, but the alternatives were a guy with two falls (Hanyu) or a guy who seemed totally incapable of axel jumps (Chan).
Uncertain about Hanyu vs. Chan on the free. Hanyu had more content, but he also had a butt-on-the-ice situation on the 4S. And he fell over backwards on the 3F, irrc, and it definitely would've been the same splat as the 4S if he hadn't used his hands. The judges would've held him back in presentation marks (I don't quite agree with this, especially considering the version of Chan that showed up in Sochi, but that's what likely would've happened).
Chan's errors in the beginning were visible but not as disruptive. I do agree the judges would've been very unimpressed with the double axel though. It's possible that final mistake would've made a bad overall impression. Still, I can see Chan placing ahead with 5.6/5.8 vs. Hanyu's 5.7/5.7.
I can see this happening:
Gold- Javier Fernandez: 3rd SP, 1st LP
Silver- Patrick Chan: 2nd SP, 2nd LP
Bronze- Yuzuru Hanyu: 1st SP, 3rd LP
And that's what I hated about 6.0. Judges could not even look on other executed technical elements after fall which is very unfair for me because fall for me doesn't discount a skater when he still does in rest of program more difficult things than for example someone with clean but simplier executed elements. And that's why I like COP. Because you can see on paper what elements they executed and how much they was scored for that
Korean Fed is weak, so I don't really think Japanese or Russians are in big trouble there. However, Korea is pro-Amercian, so Americans might have strong positions there.
In men I wish some kid would grow up till then, although I doubt they will allow to create champion like Hanyu once again. Hanyu was meteoric indeed but he is awfully unstable, if there is anyone who can make it clean, they can easily pull Adelina and give Hanyu silver or bronze.
In ladies it is definitely Russian on top - Pogorilaya, Radionova or Yulia. Although Marin Honda will be like Adelina by then -16-17 years. Gold and Wagner might be still there by then, but not on the podium
Which is what's happening.
Chan obviously would have still won the SP under 6.0. But worse case scenario, Chan would have been 4th in the FS (although pangtongfan, you'd probably have him in 20th ). He easily would have beaten Takahashi. Chan's artistic marks also would prevent him from placing worse than Mura/Reynolds/Aaron... they likely would have beat Chan technically but Chan would edge them out with his artistic superiority. I'd picture something like 5.5/5.4 for Mura, 5.4/5.5 for Reynolds, 5.6/5.3 for Aaron, and 5.2/5.8 for Chan (although even 5.2/5.7 or 5.1/5.8 would place Chan ahead).
I think the placements under 6.0 would have been:
1. Chan 0.5
2. Ten 1.0
3. Takahashi 1.5 (his URs being overlooked - he might have even received 2nd place ordinals over Ten)
4. Joubert 2.0 (reputation + clean SP placed ahead of Reynolds)
5. Reynolds 2.5 (I don't think his quads would have been given enough credit as they are under CoP)
6. Brezina 3.0
7. Fernandez 3.5 (although there's certainly a case for him being placed behind Aaron, who was clean, whereas Fernandez singled his axel)
8. Aaron 4.0
9. Hanyu 4.5
10. Liebers 5.0 (although there's certainly a case for Liebers ahead of Hanyu, seeing as how Hanyu would have been hit hard for two significant errors, including a fall, and no combo)
Aaron 6.0 (although he arguably could be placed ahead of Mura)
Takahashi 7.0 (I can picture the judges throwing him a bone and putting him ahead of Reynolds, although if some of Reynolds' URs were disregarded he'd be ahead of Takahashi)
Joubert 10.0 (Liebers would be more deserving, but I'm guessing the judges would ignore Joubert's URs and the negated 3F at the end)
Takahashi 8.5 (although this would be due to artistic marks when arguably Reynolds and Aaron outskated him)
Reynolds (could be Aaron)
There is an unlikely scenario where Chan's artistic marks in the FS wouldn't be enough to put him ahead of Mura/Aaron in the FS (but I think most would agree that Chan's artistic superiority compensates for his technical inferiority to Aaron/Mura's FS). That would tie his ordinals with Hanyu/Fernandez, and thus they both beat him on a tiebreaker. That however is unlikely (not to mention, Fernandez and Hanyu might not have even been as high as 7th ahead of Aaron and 9th ahead of Liebers after the SP).
So to say that it's "quite likely" Chan would have been off the podium is ridiculous thinking - even for you.
You do make a good point about Chan being axel-less. I can see the free going either way between him and Hanyu. I still give Chan the nod because of presentation marks + no butt-on-the-ice scenario.
Wasn't everyone sans Ten pretty messy at 2013 Worlds? Chan definitely wouldn't have won, but he would've had a podium finish. Even 6.0 can't do anything when everyone messes up. Yagudin won two World titles that way!
I'm curious to see which 3+ skaters pangtongfan would have ended up ahead of Chan under 6.0 at 2013 Worlds -- hopefully he'll actually take the short program into consideration. It's futile though, because he probably believes Chan deserved 4.5 technical/4.9 artistic for the FS (and 5.8 technical/5.3 artistry for his clean SP, at that).
I also wondered how would be TES of top3 of Salt Lake Yagudin, Plushenko and Goebel under COP, but didn't had time yet count it
In Sochi, I'm pretty sure Hanyu would have had probably 5.8's across the board for presentation, and 5.9's across for technical. Bear in mind Chan, Fernandez, and Takahashi had yet to skate. Chan would have probably had 5.6/5.9 for technical/artistic... maybe 5.7/5.9 if the judges were being generous.