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Thread: Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

  1. #151
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    I hope a post-pubescent, high jumping Lipnitskaia wins OGM.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatedreamer View Post
    "Reputation" judging is even more frustrating to me than the "leaving room" concept. If an unknown skater performs better on a given day than the rest of the field, he/she should be rewarded for it. If Mr. Nobody out-skates Mr. Somebody, he wins -- why would a resume factor into the equation at all? Past performances, no matter how wonderful, shouldn't trump the present.

    Just blowing off a little steam...
    ITA. A "lesser" skater landing 7 triples should easily beat any other skater who lands 3 triples and falls. I know skating is more than jumps, but it's ludicrous that "lesser" skaters have to go clean with huge difficulty just to be considered on par with established skaters who can afford 3-4 errors.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by TripleToe View Post
    Too soon to tell but I would love to see Lipnitskaya wearing a medal in ladies.

    I'd also love.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    No. Those bad step outs, some with hands down as well, would have been viewed as basically the same as a fall under 6.0, with the jump being totally discounted, and interrupting the program. He had 3 of those in the LP, and Hanyu had only 2, and Hanyu landed a much higher number of his difficult jumps that night. Hanyu was counted as a fall on a triple flip which was basically done the same as atleast 2 of Chan's misses, and lost a ridiculous 6 points for just barely putting his foot down between a jump sequence, which is why their score was virtually tied even with a much higher base value and Chan making more glaring to the eye mistakes than Hanyu. 6.0 would have actually helped Hanyu in comparision to Chan.

    Fernandez and Ten would have probably beaten both in the LP anyway under 6.0. Fernandez had a whole bunch of IJS errors in his LP but not too bad of mistakes under 6.0 thinking. Machida and Takahashi may have even both in the LP under 6.0 too. I think there is a good chance Fernandez would have even won overall under 6.0, but either way Chan wouldnt have and would have been placed behind Hanyu in both programs IMO. Chan may well have finished lower than 2nd.
    Chan had more errors, but given that Hanyu had more glaring errors, I think it would have been a split in favour of Chan, coming down to artistry. Let's pretend that 3 step outs are worse to 2 falls (although obviously that's wrong to equate stepouts with falls... I mean look at the mandatory deductions for a fall vs. a stepout). Hanyu would have theoretically had a technical mark edge by 0.1, but Chan would have received an artistic edge by 0.1 (or higher), and with tied scores, presentation is obviously the deciding factor. I'm betting a judge would have scored Hanyu something like 5.6/5.8 and scored Chan something like 5.5/5.9. I could have also pictured the judges giving both Hanyu and Chan a technical mark of 5.5 (since 2 falls back then was as bad as 3 stepouts), and then the obvious nod to Chan for artistry.

    If anything, Hanyu in Sochi was saved by CoP base value, GOE and bonus. Back then, his fall on his 4S wouldn't have counted as though he had executed a perfect triple lutz (as it is now), it would have been a deduction of at least 0.2 (0.4 if we're going by mandatory SP deductions). His maximum technical mark in the FS would have had to be no greater than a 5.6, and Chan could have been anywhere from 5.4-5.6 depending on how harsh the judges wanted to be, but then made up for it with 0.1-0.2 higher than Hanyu in artistic presentation.

    As much as he made errors and stepouts, he still stayed on his feet, and with his obvious artistic superiority over Hanyu (which of course you're too deluded by hate to acknowledge), I'm pretty sure Chan would have won under 6.0. Same goes for the GPF. And Machida would have won Worlds because Hanyu would (and should) have been 4th behind Verner under 6.0.

  5. #155
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    Hmm, let's try to look at it with 6.0 eyes:
    Fernandez: 2 clean quads + 4 clean triples (-GOE on the axel, can't remember what he did on it, was it 6.0 clean? Not counting the 3S since it was repeated).
    Ten: 1 quad + 8 triples
    Hanyu: 1 quad + 6 credited triples, but would be 7 under 6.0; two falls
    Chan: 1 quad + 5 triples
    Machida: 1 quad + 7 triples; one fall
    (Didn't include Takahashi because he couldn't land a clean quad in either program. That would've knocked him out in 6.0 as surely as it did in COP.)

    I don't think there were mandatory fall deductions in the LP under 6.0, so considering SP deductions is pointless.

    Ten's cleanish skate would be considered most suitable for 6.0, but both he and Machida wouldn't have made the final group after their SPs (Machida fell in the LP too). That would've hurt their marks. Thus... if this had been 6.0, would we have Javier Fernandez as Olympic champion? He would've gotten a deduction for the Zayaking, but the alternatives were a guy with two falls (Hanyu) or a guy who seemed totally incapable of axel jumps (Chan).

    Uncertain about Hanyu vs. Chan on the free. Hanyu had more content, but he also had a butt-on-the-ice situation on the 4S. And he fell over backwards on the 3F, irrc, and it definitely would've been the same splat as the 4S if he hadn't used his hands. The judges would've held him back in presentation marks (I don't quite agree with this, especially considering the version of Chan that showed up in Sochi, but that's what likely would've happened).

    Chan's errors in the beginning were visible but not as disruptive. I do agree the judges would've been very unimpressed with the double axel though. It's possible that final mistake would've made a bad overall impression. Still, I can see Chan placing ahead with 5.6/5.8 vs. Hanyu's 5.7/5.7.

    I can see this happening:
    Gold- Javier Fernandez: 3rd SP, 1st LP
    Silver- Patrick Chan: 2nd SP, 2nd LP
    Bronze- Yuzuru Hanyu: 1st SP, 3rd LP

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    This is a good example of why you can't compare PCS from event to event. In the team LP, you had only 5 skaters so there was plenty of room to spread marks around as needed, and no need to use the upper end of the spectrum. In the individual LP, you had 24 skaters in which to use that same spectrum, so both the lower end and higher end are going to be utilized more. In the case of medal contenders like Gracie and Julia who skate later in the evening, they are going to benefit from the judges placing their marks ahead of skaters who performed well earlier in the evening.
    Please stop trying to excuse and validate improper judging. You keep using the same reasoning to explain Sotnikova's Sochi PCS but anyone on this board would be able to tell you PCS should never be influenced by skate order or how many skaters are in a given event; it should be scored according to what is put on the ice and absolutely nothing else. You raise the point that this subjective bias will always be present; I argue that the job of a judge is to overlook that bias and doing otherwise would be a failure of their responsibility.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Hmm, let's try to look at it with 6.0 eyes:
    Fernandez: 2 clean quads + 4 clean triples (-GOE on the axel, can't remember what he did on it, was it 6.0 clean? Not counting the 3S since it was repeated).
    Ten: 1 quad + 8 triples
    Hanyu: 1 quad + 6 credited triples, but would be 7 under 6.0; two falls
    Chan: 1 quad + 5 triples
    Machida: 1 quad + 7 triples; one fall
    (Didn't include Takahashi because he couldn't land a clean quad in either program. That would've knocked him out in 6.0 as surely as it did in COP.)

    I don't think there were mandatory fall deductions in the LP under 6.0, so considering SP deductions is pointless.

    Ten's cleanish skate would be considered most suitable for 6.0, but both he and Machida wouldn't have made the final group after their SPs (Machida fell in the LP too). That would've hurt their marks. Thus... if this had been 6.0, would we have Javier Fernandez as Olympic champion? He would've gotten a deduction for the Zayaking, but the alternatives were a guy with two falls (Hanyu) or a guy who seemed totally incapable of axel jumps (Chan).

    Uncertain about Hanyu vs. Chan on the free. Hanyu had more content, but he also had a butt-on-the-ice situation on the 4S. And he fell over backwards on the 3F, irrc, and it definitely would've been the same splat as the 4S if he hadn't used his hands. The judges would've held him back in presentation marks (I don't quite agree with this, especially considering the version of Chan that showed up in Sochi, but that's what likely would've happened).

    Chan's errors in the beginning were visible but not as disruptive. I do agree the judges would've been very unimpressed with the double axel though. It's possible that final mistake would've made a bad overall impression. Still, I can see Chan placing ahead with 5.6/5.8 vs. Hanyu's 5.7/5.7.

    I can see this happening:
    Gold- Javier Fernandez: 3rd SP, 1st LP
    Silver- Patrick Chan: 2nd SP, 2nd LP
    Bronze- Yuzuru Hanyu: 1st SP, 3rd LP

    And that's what I hated about 6.0. Judges could not even look on other executed technical elements after fall which is very unfair for me because fall for me doesn't discount a skater when he still does in rest of program more difficult things than for example someone with clean but simplier executed elements. And that's why I like COP. Because you can see on paper what elements they executed and how much they was scored for that

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by HanDomi View Post
    And that's what I hated about 6.0. Judges could not even look on other executed technical elements after fall which is very unfair for me because fall for me doesn't discount a skater when he still does in rest of program more difficult things than for example someone with clean but simplier executed elements. And that's why I like COP. Because you can see on paper what elements they executed and how much they was scored for that
    I agree.
    I do wish the penalty for falling was more than 1 point though. I'd like a fall to have a slightly larger consequence.

  9. #159
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    Korean Fed is weak, so I don't really think Japanese or Russians are in big trouble there. However, Korea is pro-Amercian, so Americans might have strong positions there.

    In men I wish some kid would grow up till then, although I doubt they will allow to create champion like Hanyu once again. Hanyu was meteoric indeed but he is awfully unstable, if there is anyone who can make it clean, they can easily pull Adelina and give Hanyu silver or bronze.

    In ladies it is definitely Russian on top - Pogorilaya, Radionova or Yulia. Although Marin Honda will be like Adelina by then -16-17 years. Gold and Wagner might be still there by then, but not on the podium

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meoima View Post
    Meh, I think no one wants the skaters to mess-up in the Olympic. But for some reason, all of them just messed up in the same night. If your sister found it baffled, then it couldn't be helped because all the men just messed up that day. Same skaters, one month later in Saitama, no one in the top 5 fell in their long program. who knows, it might be the schedule in Sochi played against the men.

    And it's time to stop all the casual viewer card. It's the rules all skaters have agreed on at the first place, or else they shouldn't have competed at all. They know the rules, the coaches know the rules as well, and they still compete.
    If casual viewers watch FS just for fun and don't bother digging the rules up, it couldn't be helped either.

    It's like watching football just for the hot guy on the screen, whoever has better strategy doesn't matter. If you want to understand something, at one point just watching for fun isn't just enough.
    Meh. One of the reasons the sport is disappearing from view is because the casual viewer is no longer tuning in, except for the Olympics. And they're certainly not going to shows. Without those casual viewers skating reverts back to being a coterie sport with not much of a revenue stream to support it.

    Which is what's happening.

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    On another note it is quite unlikely Chan would even make the podium at the 2013 worlds if it were scored under 6.0, even with his obvious 1st place in the short program.
    Uh, how do you figure. Chan losing to Ten under 6.0, yes, certainly. But who in the rest of the field could have been ahead of Chan?

    Chan obviously would have still won the SP under 6.0. But worse case scenario, Chan would have been 4th in the FS (although pangtongfan, you'd probably have him in 20th ). He easily would have beaten Takahashi. Chan's artistic marks also would prevent him from placing worse than Mura/Reynolds/Aaron... they likely would have beat Chan technically but Chan would edge them out with his artistic superiority. I'd picture something like 5.5/5.4 for Mura, 5.4/5.5 for Reynolds, 5.6/5.3 for Aaron, and 5.2/5.8 for Chan (although even 5.2/5.7 or 5.1/5.8 would place Chan ahead).

    I think the placements under 6.0 would have been:

    SP:
    1. Chan 0.5
    2. Ten 1.0
    3. Takahashi 1.5 (his URs being overlooked - he might have even received 2nd place ordinals over Ten)
    4. Joubert 2.0 (reputation + clean SP placed ahead of Reynolds)
    5. Reynolds 2.5 (I don't think his quads would have been given enough credit as they are under CoP)
    6. Brezina 3.0
    7. Fernandez 3.5 (although there's certainly a case for him being placed behind Aaron, who was clean, whereas Fernandez singled his axel)
    8. Aaron 4.0
    9. Hanyu 4.5
    10. Liebers 5.0 (although there's certainly a case for Liebers ahead of Hanyu, seeing as how Hanyu would have been hit hard for two significant errors, including a fall, and no combo)

    FS:
    Ten 1.0
    Hanyu 2.0
    Fernandez 3.0
    Chan 4.0
    Mura 5.0
    Aaron 6.0 (although he arguably could be placed ahead of Mura)
    Takahashi 7.0 (I can picture the judges throwing him a bone and putting him ahead of Reynolds, although if some of Reynolds' URs were disregarded he'd be ahead of Takahashi)
    Reynolds 8.0
    Rogozine 9.0
    Joubert 10.0 (Liebers would be more deserving, but I'm guessing the judges would ignore Joubert's URs and the negated 3F at the end)

    Top 6:
    Ten 2.0
    Chan 4.5
    Hanyu 6.5
    Fernandez 6.5
    Takahashi 8.5 (although this would be due to artistic marks when arguably Reynolds and Aaron outskated him)
    Reynolds (could be Aaron)

    There is an unlikely scenario where Chan's artistic marks in the FS wouldn't be enough to put him ahead of Mura/Aaron in the FS (but I think most would agree that Chan's artistic superiority compensates for his technical inferiority to Aaron/Mura's FS). That would tie his ordinals with Hanyu/Fernandez, and thus they both beat him on a tiebreaker. That however is unlikely (not to mention, Fernandez and Hanyu might not have even been as high as 7th ahead of Aaron and 9th ahead of Liebers after the SP).

    So to say that it's "quite likely" Chan would have been off the podium is ridiculous thinking - even for you.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Sorry but just no. A program with 1 clean quad, but 2 clean triple axels and 7 triples overall by the short program leader would never be placed behind a program with a 1 clean quad, but ZERO clean triple axels and 5 triples overall, and even a miss on the only double axel attempt under 6.0 thinking. Not a prayer. And Chan's errors were just as disruptive as Hanyu's 2 falls, in fact his last double axel miss was the worst of all in that regard.

    On another note it is quite unlikely Chan would even make the podium at the 2013 worlds if it were scored under 6.0, even with his obvious 1st place in the short program.
    Hanyu may have been the SP leader, but Chan is the "elder statesman," more respected/older competitor (which would help in the presentation marks, even though as I noted, I don't entirely agree with this), and the reigning world champion. That being said, if this had been 6.0, Chan might not have won a lot of stuff he did win, and he certainly wouldn't be reigning world champion. Hmm, if Denis Ten had been reigning world champion, would the judges have saved him after the SP (and no doubt given him the LP win), thus securing him a medal anyway? I need to check how many mandatory deductions he racked up in the SP though...

    You do make a good point about Chan being axel-less. I can see the free going either way between him and Hanyu. I still give Chan the nod because of presentation marks + no butt-on-the-ice scenario.

    Wasn't everyone sans Ten pretty messy at 2013 Worlds? Chan definitely wouldn't have won, but he would've had a podium finish. Even 6.0 can't do anything when everyone messes up. Yagudin won two World titles that way!

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    I can see the free going either way between him and Hanyu. I still give Chan the nod because of presentation marks + no butt-on-the-ice scenario.

    Wasn't everyone sans Ten pretty messy at 2013 Worlds? Chan definitely wouldn't have won, but he would've had a podium finish. Even 6.0 can't do anything when everyone messes up.
    Yup.

    And yup.

    I'm curious to see which 3+ skaters pangtongfan would have ended up ahead of Chan under 6.0 at 2013 Worlds -- hopefully he'll actually take the short program into consideration. It's futile though, because he probably believes Chan deserved 4.5 technical/4.9 artistic for the FS (and 5.8 technical/5.3 artistry for his clean SP, at that).

  14. #164
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    I also wondered how would be TES of top3 of Salt Lake Yagudin, Plushenko and Goebel under COP, but didn't had time yet count it

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by HanDomi View Post
    It is more interesting how Hanyu would be scored on SP under 6.0. I can definitely see couple 6.0's for technical and presentation, and judges could destroy chances Chan after step out of axel after Hanyu's performance, but that would be unlikely because of Chan reputation as World Champion.

    I also wondered how would be TES of top3 of Salt Lake Yagudin, Plushenko and Goebel under COP, but didn't had time yet count it
    The TES of Yag/Plush/Goebel would be interesting to count (at least the base value). I'm pretty sure Goebel would easily outscore them, especially given Yags doubling the flip and Plushenko doubling the salchow.

    In Sochi, I'm pretty sure Hanyu would have had probably 5.8's across the board for presentation, and 5.9's across for technical. Bear in mind Chan, Fernandez, and Takahashi had yet to skate. Chan would have probably had 5.6/5.9 for technical/artistic... maybe 5.7/5.9 if the judges were being generous.

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