Way too early to say anything. Just for fun though:
Pairs- I think V&M have a great shot at repeating their 2 golds from Sochi, and S&K could end up on the podium again, or even gold if V&T somehow retire before then. The Chinese pairs could or could not be a big factor, hard to say now. Canada will not be a factor this time around. Savchenko & Massot have strong potential be contender for a medal, and possibly gold, but we have to see if they stay together and how they debut in the big events 18-21 months from now.
Men- Hanyu looks the obvious favorite to repeat for now (again alot can happen in 4 years). Fernandez could still be around and a strong medal contender. Brown, Farris, and Kovtun have potential to be contenders by then. We will probably see some newer Japanese threats emerge. I doubt Chan, Ten, Machida will be around or a real factor even if any of them are.
Dance- Alot will probably happen from until then. The way things look now Weaver & Poje could even be the favorites for the 2018 gold, but I dont the TPTB would be happy about that and would do anything to change this. Atleast 1 Russian team will emerge to contend, but I doubt Bobrova & Soloviev will be contenders at this point, if they are even around. Capellini & Lanotte are very unlikely to still be around by then, but you never know. Chock & Bates will be U.S #1 and medal threats. D&W and V&M will not come back.
Ladies- This is the hardest to say. I would guess neither Julia or Adelina will be on the 2018 Russian team though (although I hope I am wrong on Julia). It is quite possible even Radianova will be swallowed up by the Russian depth by then, although I would be particularly sad to see this. No idea who will be on the Russian team then, but all their reps will be medal contenders, although not sure if any Russian will be allowed to win at the next Games for the obvious reason. Gold should be a medal contender, and so should/could Edmunds. Wagner wont even make the team if she is around then. Either Osmond or Li have potential to be medal contenders by then, but everything would have to right for them from now until then. Same could be said for Chartrand and Daleman. Asada will compete in 2018 and will be a real contender for gold, and if it is at all close she will get every benefit from the judges this time around, unless there is a Korean who is a stronger contender. I hope Canada has atleast one medal contender by then.
Unsure if it's too early. Four years ago, after Vancouver, the following weren't really mentioned: Stolbova / Klimov, Yulia, Adelina (although to be fair she was already a Russian national champ then), Machida, MTM (v 1.0 and 2.0), D/R, Gracie, and all performed well this past season, with many of the above having medaled.
There was discussion of I/K and Yuzu, but back then the feeling wasn't that they would be prime contenders, let alone Olympic gold medalists, and both brought home gold from Sochi.
Maybe it's a bit premature? Nobody back then would have foreseen Yuko & Sasha having a disaster that took them out of the entire year, or that Caro would become arguably the most consistent skater of the quad and a medalist at the relatively advanced (for the sport) age of 27.
Although ... I will sit back and read all your predictions.
Ladies - Julia Lipnitskaya, Gracie Gold, Anna Pogorilaya, maybe Satoko Miyahara, maybe Polina Edmunds. I'm not sure about the other Russian ladies, like the very young ones or Sotnikova. I have no idea if Sotnikova will even still be skating in 2018.
Men - Hanyu and Fernandez if they're still skating, Denis Ten if he still is, and maybe Maxim Kovtun, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, and Max Aaron.
Pairs - With all the new teams, it's hard to say, but I think S/K will be in the mix for sure, and Duhamel/Radford if they keep skating until then.
Dance - I think D/W will retire so.. one or both of the newly formed Russian teams (I/Z, S/K), Cappellini/Lanotte and Weaver/Poje if they stay in (although I think the former will retire before then), Bobrova/Soloviev, maybe Chock/Bates, maybe Papadakis/Cizeron.
Bold prediction for #3, but I wouldn't mind.. btw, I saw Miki Ando mentioned as not being a contender. I doubt she'll even be there. Didn't she retire from competition for good?
Originally Posted by tommybuffano12
Four years ago, I expected the Sochi contenders are
Ladies - Asada, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Nagasu
Kim was a question mark. The new rules introduced after Vancouver were mostly negative for her. I think, if Mao had shown more consistency in the 2010-11 season, Kim wouldn't bother to do the "Plushenko".
Men - Chan, Hanyu, Gachinski, Kozuka, Brezina, Amodio
I was sure that Takahashi would be overtaken by Hanyu. No American would contend for the Olympic podium. Denis Ten was one rank lower as a contender due to inconsistency. Only Fernandez was totally out of the picture.
My deeper analysis....
Proklova - I just think shes the next big star and will establish that over the next couple years. Will be 17 going on 18, just like Adelina was for this Olympics.
Yulia - Has already made the commitment to stay around till 2018
Adelina - Its possible she could hang around with taking some time off but I sense she will retire by then
Pogorilaya - In the mix but might get passed by
Radionova - ditto
Gold - Can't get it done at 18, why would she at 22.
Edmunds - How much weight will go on that big frame
Other Russians - Serafima is prob the best of who I didn't mention. If the age requirement would be slightly changed then Gubanova would be a possiblity.
Other Americans - Girls like Glenn and Chen don't really impress me. So would have to look at young girls who are more like 11-13 now.
Endlessly Critiquing Costumes
2. Elena Radianova
3. Polina E.
1. Yuzuru for the repeat
2. Javier F.
3. Someone random
Dance and pairs---can't even guess. So many broken and new teams.
What would most of us have forecasted 4 years earlier, just to get an idea if this is even semi realistic to try. 4 years ago if I had to do a rough analysis who might be the contenders for 2014 I would have said:
Pairs- Savchenko & Szolkowy, Pang & Tong, Volosozhar & Trankov (I knew they were surefire stars the moment I heard they were teaming up, as I suspect most others did too) as the main gold hopefuls, and Sui & Han, Dube & Davison, Kavaguti & Smirnov as possible medal contenders. I also thought back than Canac & Della Monica would rise up the ranks and possibly be contenders by 2014. I never thought the Zhangs would make 2014, and if they did didnt think they would be contenders as they were losing favor with the judges even in 2010. Plus her growth spurt. I was mostly right on the 3 top contenders, but the lower medal contenders I mentioned all didnt even make the 2014 Olympics, and most were retired/split by then.
Men- I would have said Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka, Oda, Rippon would be the main contenders for 2014. Well Chan certainly was, and Takahashi still was a threat, but those others werent even at the Games. I wasnt sure Hanyu would rise up fast enough to even make the deep Japanese team for 2014 at that point, although I would have given him a chance to, and if you make the Jap. team you probably already have atleast an outside medal chance. I was always pretty sure Lysacek and Weir were non factors for Sochi whether they made it there or not, didnt expect Plushenko's comeback at all but as it was he was a non factor in the individual (not even skating), and I figured Abbott would always be too old to be a threat in Sochi (turns out the brain was still more a problem for him than his age though).
Dance- Well I think everyone predicted total dominance for V&M and D&W, and that is one thing we probably all would agree on. I thought V&M would continue to have the slight edge in the rivalry, and I was wrong on that. Pechalat & Bourzat hung on alot better than I would have imagined, I didnt see them even around in 2014 let alone going to the Games as the bronze favorites. I would have predicted Crone & Poirier and Samuelson & Bates to be up there and contending or a medal by 2014, and both teams were soon split up. I&K certainly looked like possible medal hopefuls in 2014 in 2010 too. I wouldnt have ever predicted Bobrova & Soloviev to still be Russian #1 going into Sochi Games (although they lost it in Sochi it turned out).
Ladies- I would have predicted Kim, Asada, Sotnitkova (who was being hyped to the skies already as a junior), as the main contenders for 2014. I figured the others in possible medal contention by then would be some assortment of young Americans, young Japanese, and young Russians. I thought at that point Rochette might try for 2014, and might be a medal contender, but not the gold, similar to 2010. I never thought Ando would last to 2014, let alone be a contender. I certainly didnt forsee Kostner whose career seemed to be tailing off in 2010 to last until 2014, let alone be a major factor.
Out of curiosity, don't you think there is a possibility of a Russian sweep? The Russian ladies seem really poised to attack this quad, and I haven't really seen that same imminence in younger skaters from other countries, BUT I don't follow juniors, so I may be seriously misinformed. Also, Kanako Murakami seems to be taking the torch for the Japanese ladies, so she is a contender for sure. Somehow, I see 2 Russian ladies and one Korean skater because of the home country fervor that will both or either motivate the skater and/or give them a judging advantage (Does this happen?).
I say this really not a fan of the Russian young ones as of now, but I have to admit that those girls have a sort of fire. My "choice" for the win would be Mao Asada Miss her and Yuna soooo much already.
I can't say much for the other disciplines, because I don't know enough. Yuzuru could medal again for sure, but there seems to be a lot of young talent on the rise behind him. Hard to say if this olympics is a peak or part of a plateau for him.
Originally Posted by bara1968
apperently, soyoun is practicing 3lz-3t combo! Even though most people in this forum cannot see, the practice video clip of 3lz-3t was posted on her official South Korean fan club website about a year ago! I think she is probably perfecting the combo in U.S, and the South Korean news channel already noticed that she might include 3lz-3t in her program in Grand Prix circuit, if early.
Tripping on the Podium
I think for ladies it will be 3 Russians....it might not even be Yulia, Adelina, and Radionova, but perhaps someone who hasn't even appeared yet...lol.
I want Yulia to get the gold, but of course it's too early to predict whether she can even make it to the next Olympics. I also would like to see Asada Mao finally get that gold...but it would be a long shot....assuming she even makes it for another 4 years. Anyway it's too early to predict. Maybe they will force Kim Yuna out of retirement in which case she should easily take the gold.
The land of SnuggleBat and Cuddlepie
I'm wary of predicting huge things for the young Russian girls. I mean, after Vancouver everyone was saying Tuktamysheva was going to be the next big thing. What happened? She turned from a little girl into a young woman, got injured, and struggled. Skaters like Edmunds and Lipnitskaya have yet to go through that process and while Edmunds' jumps are big and airy enough that it will likely be less of a problem for her Lipnitskaya's are just too small.
Heck, I'm wary of predicting anyone for anything. Even the boys aren't safe - as Artur proved with a second growth spurt at 19! - and injuries can happen any time. A combination of luck and good management has worked for Jason so far - can it keep working for another four years? Has Joshua ended his run of injuries or are some of them going to come back to haunt him in the future? How strong is Max's back and can it hold up to quad loops and Lutzes and three-quad programs? How much longer is Yuzuru going to be able to do a long program that leaves him at the point of collapsing before his body screams "enough!"?
As to pairs and dance... *throws hands in the air* Who knows if anyone will be with the same partner in four weeks, let alone four years?!?!
I'm going to go against the popular opinion and predict that there will NOT be a Russian ladies sweep. There'll be one Russian on the podium.
I don't post much, but this was too fun to pass up! (*Disclaimer: I mostly follow dance and pairs...)
Dance: P/I and Hub/Don will be in the mix by then if they hang on. I think C/Bates, C/L, W/P, and B/S will be out by then for one reason or another. Of the new teams, I predict Ilinykh/Zhiganshin will rise to the occasion. That girl's a star and if Ruslan can keep up, they'll do well. I don't think Sinitsina will ever look good with Katsalapov (knee bend, frame, etc) and can see him dumping her in a season or two.
Pairs: Gold = Savchenko (and whoever she shows up with ) But really, she is super determined and extremely talented and from what I've seen, Massot is doing well. That triple twist is huuge and apparently they're gonna try 4lo throws... Silver = V/T, they said they're going for it and their elements are huge and they say they're training new ones. He has that shoulder injury though. (I won't lie, I would LOVE for S/M and V/T to battle it out so I'm being very optimistic!) Not sure if S/K will still be around, but from the new pairs, I'm very interested in I/Moscovitch, Bazarova/D, and Davankova/E. I also wouldn't count out the chinese teams.
Ladies: At least some of the Russian babies (I know, duh!) - I'll go with Lip and Rad still making noise, don't really follow the juniors. Maybe Osmond too.
Men: gold= plushenko (just kidding! But ya gotta admit that man is determined!) I'll be obvious and go Hanyu, Fernandez, Ten. Also Han Yan. And I hope Reynolds can get it together...
In the depth of Russian ladies field, no one can expect consistent "pushes" from the federation. To be a legitimate OM contender, she needs to be on the top for at least two seasons. I don't think anyone can be that dominant in Russia (like Slutskaya). At the Olympics, the #2 of a country will be always treated rather harshly (e.g. Ando, Weir, Wagner). The only chance for such skaters is waiting for the #1 skater to falter. Such tendencies are not so obvious at junior competitions. Therefore their "sweep" in the junior ranks are not predictive.
Originally Posted by lilahozi