Way too early to say anything. Just for fun though:
Pairs- I think V&M have a great shot at repeating their 2 golds from Sochi, and S&K could end up on the podium again, or even gold if V&T somehow retire before then. The Chinese pairs could or could not be a big factor, hard to say now. Canada will not be a factor this time around. Savchenko & Massot have strong potential be contender for a medal, and possibly gold, but we have to see if they stay together and how they debut in the big events 18-21 months from now.
Men- Hanyu looks the obvious favorite to repeat for now (again alot can happen in 4 years). Fernandez could still be around and a strong medal contender. Brown, Farris, and Kovtun have potential to be contenders by then. We will probably see some newer Japanese threats emerge. I doubt Chan, Ten, Machida will be around or a real factor even if any of them are.
Dance- Alot will probably happen from until then. The way things look now Weaver & Poje could even be the favorites for the 2018 gold, but I dont the TPTB would be happy about that and would do anything to change this. Atleast 1 Russian team will emerge to contend, but I doubt Bobrova & Soloviev will be contenders at this point, if they are even around. Capellini & Lanotte are very unlikely to still be around by then, but you never know. Chock & Bates will be U.S #1 and medal threats. D&W and V&M will not come back.
Ladies- This is the hardest to say. I would guess neither Julia or Adelina will be on the 2018 Russian team though (although I hope I am wrong on Julia). It is quite possible even Radianova will be swallowed up by the Russian depth by then, although I would be particularly sad to see this. No idea who will be on the Russian team then, but all their reps will be medal contenders, although not sure if any Russian will be allowed to win at the next Games for the obvious reason. Gold should be a medal contender, and so should/could Edmunds. Wagner wont even make the team if she is around then. Either Osmond or Li have potential to be medal contenders by then, but everything would have to right for them from now until then. Same could be said for Chartrand and Daleman. Asada will compete in 2018 and will be a real contender for gold, and if it is at all close she will get every benefit from the judges this time around, unless there is a Korean who is a stronger contender. I hope Canada has atleast one medal contender by then.
Unsure if it's too early. Four years ago, after Vancouver, the following weren't really mentioned: Stolbova / Klimov, Yulia, Adelina (although to be fair she was already a Russian national champ then), Machida, MTM (v 1.0 and 2.0), D/R, Gracie, and all performed well this past season, with many of the above having medaled.
There was discussion of I/K and Yuzu, but back then the feeling wasn't that they would be prime contenders, let alone Olympic gold medalists, and both brought home gold from Sochi.
Maybe it's a bit premature? Nobody back then would have foreseen Yuko & Sasha having a disaster that took them out of the entire year, or that Caro would become arguably the most consistent skater of the quad and a medalist at the relatively advanced (for the sport) age of 27.
Although ... I will sit back and read all your predictions.
Ladies - Julia Lipnitskaya, Gracie Gold, Anna Pogorilaya, maybe Satoko Miyahara, maybe Polina Edmunds. I'm not sure about the other Russian ladies, like the very young ones or Sotnikova. I have no idea if Sotnikova will even still be skating in 2018.
Men - Hanyu and Fernandez if they're still skating, Denis Ten if he still is, and maybe Maxim Kovtun, Jason Brown, Joshua Farris, and Max Aaron.
Pairs - With all the new teams, it's hard to say, but I think S/K will be in the mix for sure, and Duhamel/Radford if they keep skating until then.
Dance - I think D/W will retire so.. one or both of the newly formed Russian teams (I/Z, S/K), Cappellini/Lanotte and Weaver/Poje if they stay in (although I think the former will retire before then), Bobrova/Soloviev, maybe Chock/Bates, maybe Papadakis/Cizeron.
Bold prediction for #3, but I wouldn't mind.. btw, I saw Miki Ando mentioned as not being a contender. I doubt she'll even be there. Didn't she retire from competition for good?
Originally Posted by tommybuffano12
Four years ago, I expected the Sochi contenders are
Ladies - Asada, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Nagasu
Kim was a question mark. The new rules introduced after Vancouver were mostly negative for her. I think, if Mao had shown more consistency in the 2010-11 season, Kim wouldn't bother to do the "Plushenko".
Men - Chan, Hanyu, Gachinski, Kozuka, Brezina, Amodio
I was sure that Takahashi would be overtaken by Hanyu. No American would contend for the Olympic podium. Denis Ten was one rank lower as a contender due to inconsistency. Only Fernandez was totally out of the picture.
My deeper analysis....
Proklova - I just think shes the next big star and will establish that over the next couple years. Will be 17 going on 18, just like Adelina was for this Olympics.
Yulia - Has already made the commitment to stay around till 2018
Adelina - Its possible she could hang around with taking some time off but I sense she will retire by then
Pogorilaya - In the mix but might get passed by
Radionova - ditto
Gold - Can't get it done at 18, why would she at 22.
Edmunds - How much weight will go on that big frame
Other Russians - Serafima is prob the best of who I didn't mention. If the age requirement would be slightly changed then Gubanova would be a possiblity.
Other Americans - Girls like Glenn and Chen don't really impress me. So would have to look at young girls who are more like 11-13 now.
Endlessly Critiquing Costumes