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Thread: Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

  1. #46
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    Anna Pogorilaya is the only Russian girl who doesn't look like an anorexic Tara Lapinski esque pre-pubescent ballerina---and she's only 16. So that's who I would bet on out of the Russians. Otherwise I would say Gold, and Polina Edmunds. So-Young Park showed a lot of promise at Worlds and is also 16. If I had to bet on a junior it would actually be Karen Chen. Her jumps are freakishly huge for how tiny she is. Can't wait for Ashley Wagner to retire! The question is does a skater emerge in the next couple of years who is extremely dominant, or does it remain a deep field of rotating medalists?

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Four years ago, I expected the Sochi contenders are

    Ladies - Asada, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Nagasu
    Kim was a question mark. The new rules introduced after Vancouver were mostly negative for her. I think, if Mao had shown more consistency in the 2010-11 season, Kim wouldn't bother to do the "Plushenko".
    And two of those girls didn't even make it to Sochi...

    Ladies is not worth even trying to predict this far out.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by YLFan View Post
    My deeper analysis....

    Proklova - I just think shes the next big star and will establish that over the next couple years. Will be 17 going on 18, just like Adelina was for this Olympics.

    Yulia - Has already made the commitment to stay around till 2018

    Adelina - Its possible she could hang around with taking some time off but I sense she will retire by then

    Pogorilaya - In the mix but might get passed by

    Radionova - ditto

    Gold - Can't get it done at 18, why would she at 22.

    Edmunds - How much weight will go on that big frame

    Other Russians - Serafima is prob the best of who I didn't mention. If the age requirement would be slightly changed then Gubanova would be a possiblity.

    Other Americans - Girls like Glenn and Chen don't really impress me. So would have to look at young girls who are more like 11-13 now.
    Well said, I agree with your assessment. My dream candidate for the 11-13 who may make it onto the US team would be Liza Kulik (wishful thinking of course)!

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    In the depth of Russian ladies field, no one can expect consistent "pushes" from the federation. To be a legitimate OM contender, she needs to be on the top for at least two seasons. I don't think anyone can be that dominant in Russia (like Slutskaya). At the Olympics, the #2 of a country will be always treated rather harshly (e.g. Ando, Weir, Wagner). The only chance for such skaters is waiting for the #1 skater to falter. Such tendencies are not so obvious at junior competitions. Therefore their "sweep" in the junior ranks are not predictive.
    Not so sure that it matters what your rank at home is if you've had success internationally. Lysacek went to Vancouver as the #2 in 2010. Hughes went to SLC as #3. And going to the Olympics and Worlds as the champion never helped Abbott all that much. If a particular country has a lot of depth or there are upsets at Nationals, that can easily become a non-issue.

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    Oh, gosh. I remember predicting that Tuktamisheva would be the gold medalist, or could be. Of course, this was when Asada was going through some difficulty, Kim wasn't competing, and Kostner hadn't peaked. That all changed obviously. I won't bother trying to guess who will even make it to Pyeongchang. So much can change in just one season alone.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Lysacek was never considered U.S #2 in 2010 even after losing to Abbott at Nationals. He did win Worlds in 2009 being considered behind Abbott, but not in 2010. Hughes was also always U.S #2 even after losing to Cohen at Nationals. Hughes's international cred >>>> Cohen's at that point.
    Obviously, Hughes was ahead of Cohen. That was Cohen's first international event. But that is totally beside the point. There is no planet on which Hughes was the U.S's number one lady in 2002 and the post I responded to said that being number 2 nationally means you cannot win internationally, especially at the Olympics. Not so. If a country has depth in a particular discipline, I don't think the ranking at home matters much in regard to how skaters are judged internationally. If a number 2 skater comes out of nowhere like Polina this year, then, yes, it is quite possible that the more established #1 is going to get the edge from international judges. It could even be argued that that was the case with Kwan vs. Cohen in SLC.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Asada will compete in 2018 and will be a real contender for gold, and if it is at all close she will get every benefit from the judges this time around, unless there is a Korean who is a stronger contender. I hope Canada has atleast one medal contender by then.
    I agree with most of your predictions you mentioned, but this is far from a certainty. She's not even certain she's continuing until then. And at the age of 27, it's hard to imagine she'll be capable of executing 3A. Although I suppose none of us expected Kostner to be able to reel off a 3F+3T at her age either. I do hope I'm wrong though, because an Olympics with Mao is interesting nevertheless. I'm wondering if the Koreans would give her every benefit as you've said, especially when she's been the chief rival of their golden star.

  8. #53
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    Lysacek was obviously the #1 US man. He was the World champion and the GPF winner. Winning the national title doesn't mean anything unless the international judges acknowledge the status change. Kozuka "won" Japanese nationals in 2010 but Takahashi was still treated as the #1 at 4CC two months later as if nothing has happened. Even Kozuka's world silver doesn't change the situation. In the following season, Takahashi was the King of NHK trophy as always. Only young Hanyu could overthrow Takahashi's dominance because the international judges acknowledged that way.

    Hughes was a typical #2 skater bumped up after the #1 faltered. Sotnikova was the similar case. If she skated earlier than Lip in the SP, her score would be 3 or 4 points lower. In the cases of home events, even #2 skaters are given some preferential treatments, like Stolbova/Klimov in Sochi and Machida at Saitama worlds.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Hughes was a typical #2 skater bumped up after the #1 faltered. Sotnikova was the similar case. If she skated earlier than Lip in the SP, her score would be 3 or 4 points lower. In the cases of home events, even #2 skaters are given some preferential treatments, like Stolbova/Klimov in Sochi and Machida at Saitama worlds.
    It's not a similar case. Sotnikova won Russian Nationals over Julia. Of course, if Julia went clean, she'd usually beat Sotnikova who often UR'ed her 3-3 combo or made another costly error... unfortunately for Julia, she did poorly in the SP/LP at Sochi, while Sotnikova was superb (and was helped by overlooked technical issues and inflated PCS).

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    It's not a similar case. Sotnikova won Russian Nationals over Julia. Of course, if Julia went clean, she'd usually beat Sotnikova who often UR'ed her 3-3 combo or made another costly error... unfortunately for Julia, she did poorly in the SP/LP at Sochi, while Sotnikova was superb (and was helped by overlooked technical issues and inflated PCS).
    The national title doesn't mean anything unless the international judges acknowlege. Lipinitskaya was clearly considered as the Russia's favorite. She beated Sotnikova at two important international events (GPF and Euros) and they entrusted her with both programs at the Team event.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    The national title doesn't mean anything unless the international judges acknowlege. Lipinitskaya was clearly considered as the Russia's favorite. She beated Sotnikova at two important international events (GPF and Euros) and they entrusted her with both programs at the Team event.
    I don't think it's insignificant though in Russia or Japan where the competition is unbelievably stiff.

    Also, Russian opted to have one ladies skater in the team event because pairs and ice dance were stronger disciplines where their 2 entries in each one could reliably deliver strong results no matter how they skated.

    Also, at the Euros/GPF, it was apparent that if both Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia skated clean, Sotnikova would place slightly higher (having beaten Julia in the SP at both). The issue was if Sotnikova made a major error in the FS (which she often did), Julia would make up the difference. At the Olympics not only did Julia fail to deliver, Sotnikova unexpectedly delivered about as good a performance as she could, so Sotnikova was the obvious winner, even if the team event set up Julia to be Russia's #1. I think most people agree that if both Julia and Adelina deliver clean skates, including 7-triple FS, Adelina will come out on top. Her jumps are more powerful, and in terms of overall skating, she is superior to Julia.

  12. #57
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    And you would no doubt say the same thing comparing Koster to Yulia, and she finished ahead of Kostner all season.

  13. #58
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    Lol Nobody mentioned Radionova.

  14. #59
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    Pairs: Gold = Savchenko (and whoever she shows up with ) But really, she is super determined and extremely talented and from what I've seen, Massot is doing well. That triple twist is huuge and apparently they're gonna try 4lo throws... Silver = V/T, they said they're going for it and their elements are huge and they say they're training new ones. He has that shoulder injury though. (I won't lie, I would LOVE for S/M and V/T to battle it out so I'm being very optimistic!) Not sure if S/K will still be around, but from the new pairs, I'm very interested in I/Moscovitch, Bazarova/D, and Davankova/E. I also wouldn't count out the chinese teams.
    I like the way you think! I'd love to have Savchenko + V/T on the podium. Maybe a Chinese team there with them too (really rooting for Peng/Zhang, though it might a long shot considering his age. Lol, if this comes true, it'll be the oldest podium ever).

    I see Mao contending for gold at the 2018 Games as way more likely than Duhamel & Radford hanging around and actually winning Olympic silver in 2018, and I think most others would too.
    Amen to that! However, I think you give the Koreans (and Japanese) too much credit in the next paragraph. I don't think Mao would benefit from skating in Korea. She's not only Yuna's rival, but also Japanese. It's not just die-hard crazies. It's uber-nationalists too--and there's no shortage of those in Korea. I'm not sure they'll take a Japanese girl over a Russian girl; hatred for Japan is longstanding, while bitterness about Sochi could fade (not to the extent that Adelina can win, but perhaps enough that another Russian girl can win if there's no Korean contender). And it'll be really easy to screw Mao over--harsh UR calls!

    Similarly, I seem to sense a vibe from many in Japan--not all, of course--that they're super happy somebody beat Yuna in Sochi, regardless of whether it was deserved.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Amen to that! However, I think you give the Koreans (and Japanese) too much credit in the next paragraph. I don't think Mao would benefit from skating in Korea. She's not only Yuna's rival, but also Japanese. It's not just die-hard crazies. It's uber-nationalists too--and there's no shortage of those in Korea. I'm not sure they'll take a Japanese girl over a Russian girl; hatred for Japan is longstanding, while bitterness about Sochi could fade (not to the extent that Adelina can win, but perhaps enough that another Russian girl can win if there's no Korean contender).
    Frankly I think any Japanese skater, man or lady, will have to skate their heart out just to have a little (a very little) chance on the bronze only. Silver or gold? I am not that optimistic. Remember the hatred for Japan would never die out in Korea. anyways it's just my thoughts, doesn't mean it's true.

    I am just curious if any Russian lady will receive the same amount of dislikeness. Russian men? I am not sure. The Koreans might not care much about Kovtun, but...who knows. wait... Kovtun is very close with Adelina. and he's Tarasova's student. Not good for him.

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