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Thread: Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

  1. #91
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    Trying to figure out what Ladies will be the favorites in 2018 is sheer lunacy. Betting on any of these Russian girls under 16 is almost impossible as some of them will lose their jumps and fade away.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by HanDomi View Post
    Honestly I can't get this complaining about splatfest. It was always part of the game. No one was always clean. Even Yagudin and Plushenko had their moments of bombing Skaters are pushing technical elements because they can do that. Someone ho is doing more simply program is doing more simplier program because he can't do what other guys can. It is what competition is all about. Even the simpliest program can turn to a bombing if it is not your night
    Actually if you go back and look at previous Olympics, there have been two major splatfests: Ladies at Albertville, and Men at Sochi (at least that I can remember off the top of my head at the moment). And it's not simply a matter of a certain skater having an off night; in both cases, there were an uncommon number of falls, bobbles etc. And I do believe that it directly related to pushing the envelope technically. It may be what you might call a "quad generational" problem--usually by the next quad the skaters have all upped their games technically (in large part because the next generation grows up in a training environment where what had been "the pushed envelope" becomes what one might call "the new normal").

    Of course it is impossible to predict who will stand on the Olympic podium at the beginning of a new quad. But I'm going to say I expect Hawayek and Baker to be very much in the mix in Ice Dancing, particularly because, given the new rules, it appears there is a concerted effort to temper the more acrobatic/athletic and push more old fashioned dance. And that plays right into Hawayek and Baker's style. Of course I also expect a Russian team (or three or four) to be in the mix as well, but it's hard to say which teams will emerge as medal threats given the musical chairs of the last few months. We shall see.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeakAnkles View Post
    But the whole point of COP is that it tried to move skating out of a jumping bean contest by quantifying ALL technical aspects. It's now a point game. It doesn't matter HOW you gain the points. Jason and his coaches played the game smartly by accumulating as much points as possible from what he was able to do (and do well).

    Quality over quantity. I think it's one reason why Jason made such a huge splash last season. Yes, pushing the technical envelope can be exciting, but it can also lead to splatfests (Sochi Olympics, anyone?). There are a good many times when I would rather see a slightly less demanding but clean technical program than one or two huge tricks wrapped up in a mediocre program.
    Jason is a wonderfully special case. It's rare these days that a junior breaks into the world ranks so quickly without at least attempting a quad. He's one of the few skaters who I don't really care if he does the highest difficulty because the rest of his skating is just so amazing to watch. I REALLY hope he gets a consistent quad because I think he's got the potential to be amazing... he'll likely be a favourite to win 2018 if he does get a consistent quad, but it's a bit up in the air (no pun intended) as to whether or not he will.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by HanDomi View Post
    Honestly I can't get this complaining about splatfest. It was always part of the game. No one was always clean. Even Yagudin and Plushenko had their moments of bombing Skaters are pushing technical elements because they can do that. Someone ho is doing more simply program is doing more simplier program because he can't do what other guys can. It is what competition is all about. Even the simpliest program can turn to a bombing if it is not your night
    Agreed. It seems to some posters that in a perfect skating world nobody would be attempting quads or 3-3 and everyone would be doing pretty, pristine, perfect programs and then it comes down to the judges PCSing their favourites. That's not how the sport should be. It should be challenging and demanding, so that when a skater somehow completes a clean program in spite of ridiculous difficulty, it's more impressive than if they went clean by taking the easy street.

  5. #95
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    I also don't get the obsessing about "splat fest" with PCS/CoP era like somehow there were no splat fests before. I remember plenty of competitions prior to the ending of the 6.0 era where there were splat fests where only the winner was clean. The 1998 Worlds comes to mind where Butyrskaya even falls doing an edge move. It seems like if one splats, most of them do and it's like a snowball rolling downhill. I don't think the system creates that, and I am not sure it can fix it. Just my $0.02

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coltrocks12 View Post
    I also don't get the obsessing about "splat fest" with PCS/CoP era like somehow there were no splat fests before. I remember plenty of competitions prior to the ending of the 6.0 era where there were splat fests where only the winner was clean. The 1998 Worlds comes to mind where Butyrskaya even falls doing an edge move. It seems like if one splats, most of them do and it's like a snowball rolling downhill. I don't think the system creates that, and I am not sure it can fix it. Just my $0.02
    Yes. And it's true that the organization at Sochi put more stress on all the skaters. The have to perform LP in the day right after SP. They should have one day off in between to prepare.

  7. #97
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    I don't think there's necessarily a relationship between HOW programs are judged--aka The Endless If Not Fruitless Debate Over Which Judging System Really Means The Death Of Not Only Figure Skating But Of All Good Things In The World As We Know Them, 6.0 Or COP*--and Olympic splatfests. I stand by what I said--at certain points someone, or a small group of someones, pushes the envelope technically, then everyone else tries to match his/her/their technical feats. Hence, an Olympic splatfest. Then technical complexity seems to level off for a while before the next bit of envelope pushing. But YMMV of course.

    * What, me exaggerate in order to prove a point? Never!

  8. #98
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    I think the point isn't necessarily that a splat fest is caused by the 3-3 combos but instead by the cramming as much tech in as humanly possible with just minor semblance of emotion acting as fillers. It's not going to be as splatfesty if the skaters could breathe a bit more allowing them to focus on other things than landing every jump possible. Ultimately people want more artistic interpretation and not just a list of tricks to be checked off. As long as PCS is mostly Politicked Componet Scores I can't find another way to award artistry outside of my earlier point. Award a bonus of ~2pts for a limited number of elements (maybe even only one per program)that are held out exceptionally long and on a curved edge. I'm sure that wouldn't lead to any controversy

    Saying COP is the cause isn't way off base but I think no matter what skaters are going to go for the most points anyway...right. The human competive spirit will always be the driving force behind that. It's not like COP is the reason for cheating....that's always been present

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Jason is a wonderfully special case. It's rare these days that a junior breaks into the world ranks so quickly without at least attempting a quad. He's one of the few skaters who I don't really care if he does the highest difficulty because the rest of his skating is just so amazing to watch. I REALLY hope he gets a consistent quad because I think he's got the potential to be amazing... he'll likely be a favourite to win 2018 if he does get a consistent quad, but it's a bit up in the air (no pun intended) as to whether or not he will.
    I really think if Josh Farris get his quad consistent he could end up a better skater then Jason. He is artistic also and has huge jumps including his triple axel. He just needs to go for it and be more aggressive. Sometimes he seems too passive.

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    I don't want everyone to attempt zero quads and 3-3s (the horror!), but it doesn't make sense to me to reward falls so highly. Difficult elements should be rewarded when they're successful, not when they're failed. Of course there were falls in 6.0 too; it's a sport, and the men's field has always been a splatfest. But consider: Hanyu managed to sweep all the major titles this season despite falling in every competition.

    I'm okay with him wanting the quad salchow, and he wants to keep going for it, then go for it! But when he fails the element, he should get deducted. He shouldn't be able to max out his point-earning potential by choreographing a fall. When he lands the 4S, that layout should earn him the most points. But when he doesn't, it shouldn't earn him more points than skating perfectly with two 4Ts (should be a PCS hit for falling too, but that obviously doesn't exist).

    Difficult elements should be high risk and high reward. Not no reward, of course, because that stops the sport in its track. But not no risk either, because we just get a bunch of people "going for it" on difficult elements without really mastering them.

  11. #101
    Say no to horrendous costumes Meoima's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    I don't want everyone to attempt zero quads and 3-3s (the horror!), but it doesn't make sense to me to reward falls so highly. Difficult elements should be rewarded when they're successful, not when they're failed. Of course there were falls in 6.0 too; it's a sport, and the men's field has always been a splatfest.
    Well, it has been like that ever since PChan got reward 90s PCS. I do think when he's at his best he can get 90 but for PChan to reach 96 PCS with clean program and almost 93 PCS for a program filled with errors, then other skaters (Hanyu, Javi, Machida) who were not so much behind him automatically got 90 PCS. I told you the judging is kinda a joke. PCS doesn't mean when the judges broke the 90 mark.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post

    I'm okay with him wanting the quad salchow, and he wants to keep going for it, then go for it! But when he fails the element, he should get deducted. He shouldn't be able to max out his point-earning potential by choreographing a fall. When he lands the 4S, that layout should earn him the most points. But when he doesn't, it shouldn't earn him more points than skating perfectly with two 4Ts (should be a PCS hit for falling too, but that obviously doesn't exist).
    Actually he would be scoring more with two 4T's than with one 4T and fall on 4S because with quality he have on 4T and adding that 4T3T would be also the same quality, he would be propably receiving perfect 3.0 GOE for that, while he can receive 2.9 for solo quad

    But you now, rules are the same for everyone.

    Actually I don't think falling on quad is somehow very highly rewarded. You need to count everything into that. Let's say, nicely landed quad sal he would be able to receive about 12.5 points. But when he falls on FULLY rotated quad sal he receives 7 - 1 = which is only 6 pt from possible 12 points. I think it is fair enough, I don't know how diffrent it should be scored

  13. #103
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    Of course it's too early to make a prediction and a lot can happen, so just for fun:
    Ladies: my biggest hope is Gracie Gold, i think she can grow into a really great skater. I also think that one Russian girl will be on that podium (but you can't be sure who, because almost all of them will have a body changes), personally i keep my fingers crossed for Liza. But i think a lot of chances will have the youngest from age-eligible for the OG. And i hope that So Youn Park can win a medal.

    Men: Patrick Chan - that curse must be broken!) I also hope to see Denis Ten on that podium. Think that Han Yan can be a contender too.

    Dances - don't know, but i think Hawayek Baker can surprise us in this new cycle

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by HanDomi View Post
    Actually he would be scoring more with two 4T's than with one 4T and fall on 4S because with quality he have on 4T and adding that 4T3T would be also the same quality, he would be propably receiving perfect 3.0 GOE for that, while he can receive 2.9 for solo quad

    But you now, rules are the same for everyone.

    Actually I don't think falling on quad is somehow very highly rewarded. You need to count everything into that. Let's say, nicely landed quad sal he would be able to receive about 12.5 points. But when he falls on FULLY rotated quad sal he receives 7 - 1 = which is only 6 pt from possible 12 points. I think it is fair enough, I don't know how diffrent it should be scored
    I haven't done the calculations myself, but I've heard that he'll lose points by doing 2 4Ts because he'll lose the halfway bonus on one of his combinations. That seemed to make sense to me, judging by how the system currently is. I should probably run the calculations myself to confirm this though.

    I never said the rules weren't the same for everyone. I don't agree with the rules, that's all. I like Hanyu. But I don't like a system that encourages "rotate and fall." From anyone.

    When you consider that a triple lutz is only worth 6 points, and Dai's UR + two-footed quad got him 2 points (next to nothing, basically), getting 6 points for a fall and no PCS hit seems pretty generous to me. I think a fall should be worth about as much as one fewer revolution (e.g. fall on a quad toe, it's worth about as much as a triple toe).

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    I haven't done the calculations myself, but I've heard that he'll lose points by doing 2 4Ts because he'll lose the halfway bonus on one of his combinations. That seemed to make sense to me, judging by how the system currently is. I should probably run the calculations myself to confirm this though.
    .

    But I actually did Very rough, and fast but:

    (It is TES just counted for jumps only)

    With two 4T's +3F in first part of program and rest in 2nd+counting good GOE on 4T3T he could be receiving around 84.5-85 TES

    With fall on 4S and counting deduction for fall he received at GPF 82.32 TES for jumps

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