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Thread: "Women" and "Girls" for season 2014-15

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    Julia is not as good as she is hyped to be. Her jumps are iffy, and she has 'child star' practically stamped on her forehead.
    Sure the media's hype was insane between the team event and the individual event, but that's the nature of the world's sports media focusing on 1 event. You can say her jumps are iffy all you want, but she still delivers them consistently and well enough to score decent enough to win. And I'm not talking about the hype or 'potential' - look at her results from the past 2 years on the senior circuit, she's delivered results.

    2 GP gold
    1 GP silver
    1 GP bronze
    2 GPF berths, 1 silver and 1 WD
    1 Worlds silver (first appearance)
    1 Euro gold (first appearance)

    To compare Gold:
    1 GP bronze
    1 GP silver

    Gold, has a lot of potential, but on the international stage, in 2 years she has 2 podium finishes (neither gold). I'm not attempting to bash Gold, but she's been a lot of 'potential' but not a lot of medals, Julia has taken 'potential' and delivered a lot of medals.

    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    If she can lose to Mao, she can definitely lose to Gold.
    On any given day a skater can lose, but so far ... I'm pretty sure in the competitions they have both been in (Juniors and Senior) that Julia has only placed below Gold in the Olympics individual event.

  2. #47
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    With Yuna out, Gracie Gold (18) is probably the best jumper in the sport. She stands the best chance to dominate out of anyone right now.
    Adelina is a waaaaay better jumper than Gracie. I don't dislike Gracie but she is not the best jumper and Elena and even Yulia will out perform her.

    Maybe Gracie has something new up her sleeve. Alright, if that's the case then we'll talk. For now....I don't see it. The results definetely don't back up what you're claiming.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    Adelina is a waaaaay better jumper than Gracie. I don't dislike Gracie but she is not the best jumper and Elena and even Yulia will out perform her.

    Maybe Gracie has something new up her sleeve. Alright, if that's the case then we'll talk. For now....I don't see it. The results definetely don't back up what you're claiming.
    I disagree. Adelina is prone to URs on her 3-3 (and indeed should have been called for it in Sochi). Gold on the other hand fully rotates her jumps before hitting the ice, and is very rarely nailed with a UR call. Unless she totally flubs a jump in which case she'll get a << and a fall. The same seems to hold true for Julia... not many UR calls but when she really misses a jump like her flip and salchow in Sochi or salchow at Worlds, she gets hit with a <<.

    I think Gracie will have a splendid season next year. USFSA will all but guarantee her a gold at Skate America, and that should be enough to get her to the GPF. She might even skate her first clean competition. I expect the lip to be there still which will be a deduction under the new rules, and hold her back 3-4 points which might affect a medal placement, but I think under Frank Carroll she will have a solid mentality. She also seems to be scoring higher and higher PCS, even when she falls, so if she manages to go clean a few times, she'll easily be scoring enough to challenge the inevitably dominant Russian teens. She also has to get a World/GPF medal before another wave of Russians hits and her PCS advantage over them gradually diminishes as they improve. Already she will be pressed to beat Radionova, Sotnikova (if she maintains her consistency), Pogorilaya, and Julia is well ahead of her in terms of consistency and even surpassed her in PCS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by YLFan View Post
    I mean that no girl left over 18 is good enough to win a podium this year. And I don't see that changing in the next few seasons. Yuna and Mao aren't around and probably never will be again.
    Wow, this is ridiculous. I guess as Worlds/GPF showed it's a good thing for Julia that Mao isn't around.

    Murakami could win a podium. Gold could. Wagner even still has an outside shot. And as people pointed out, of the top 24, only 7 were under 18.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    Julia is not as good as she is hyped to be. Her jumps are iffy, and she has 'child star' practically stamped on her forehead. If she can lose to Mao, she can definitely lose to Gold.
    Firstly, Mao is only a completely different level than Gold so don't even compare them. (Although, indeed Julia lost to Gold in Sochi.)

    Secondly, Julia is stellar for whatever hype she has. She's by far had the most consistent season (even though she's had poor performances here and there with falls), and her jumps are usually reliable (at this point). And even if she probably doesn't deserve it at this point, IMO, she's getting high 60's/low-70's for her PCS which will surely keep her on most podiums, if not a favourite to win. She is overwhelmingly the favourite in the world, unless Radionova continues to have strong skates and sees her PCS rise the way Julia's did (although Elena won't have the benefit of an Olympic year). Of course, Julia isn't perfection, and has shown vulnerability (e.g. Sochi/Cup of Russia) among her moments of brilliance, so I don't think she's unbeatable by any means. She's just probably the best bet at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I disagree. Adelina is prone to URs on her 3-3 (and indeed should have been called for it in Sochi). Gold on the other hand fully rotates her jumps before hitting the ice, and is very rarely nailed with a UR call. Unless she totally flubs a jump in which case she'll get a << and a fall. The same seems to hold true for Julia... not many UR calls but when she really misses a jump like her flip and salchow in Sochi or salchow at Worlds, she gets hit with a <<.

    I think Gracie will have a splendid season next year. USFSA will all but guarantee her a gold at Skate America, and that should be enough to get her to the GPF. She might even skate her first clean competition. I expect the lip to be there still which will be a deduction under the new rules, and hold her back 3-4 points which might affect a medal placement, but I think under Frank Carroll she will have a solid mentality. She also seems to be scoring higher and higher PCS, even when she falls, so if she manages to go clean a few times, she'll easily be scoring enough to challenge the inevitably dominant Russian teens. She also has to get a World/GPF medal before another wave of Russians hits and her PCS advantage over them gradually diminishes as they improve. Already she will be pressed to beat Radionova, Sotnikova (if she maintains her consistency), Pogorilaya, and Julia is well ahead of her in terms of consistency and even surpassed her in PCS.
    Adelina is currently the best jumper in ladies' skating. Her 3T-3T and 2A-3T are monstrous. It's only the 3Lz(e)-3T that she underrotates.

    Adelina's jumps are way higher and much better quality (only jump of Gracie's that is better is the lutz, because Sotnikova's a flutzer.) Gracie gets zero flow out of her jumps and the height has disappeared since she started training with Frank Carroll. She looks emaciated and generates no power now. She didn't flub two double axels at the World Championships because she was nervous. She flubbed her axels because she has horrible technique on that jump. It's a whippy, Lipnitskaia-style double axel. Just watch the videos from Stars on Ice. She was flubbing her double axels and getting zero height on the jump there, too.

    Gracie has been on the senior scene for two seasons and she's never won an international competition. Yet, the US fans are so desperate for a ladies star that they keep pushing her as a contender on the world stage. She can't compete with the Russians. She doesn't have the artistry (the pageant girl act doesn't count), consistency or jump quality to do it. She has a long history of being a poor competitor (blowing the lead every time she has had it after the short program.) She couldn't even win the B-level US Figure Skating Classic that was set up for her to win, so she's perfectly capable of blowing Skate America, too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    Adelina is a waaaaay better jumper than Gracie. I don't dislike Gracie but she is not the best jumper and Elena and even Yulia will out perform her.

    Maybe Gracie has something new up her sleeve. Alright, if that's the case then we'll talk. For now....I don't see it. The results definetely don't back up what you're claiming.
    Adelina can't perform a lutz, and has poor flow and speed. She can do that 3T-3T with a lot of height, but that's about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Firstly, Mao is only a completely different level than Gold so don't even compare them. (Although, indeed Julia lost to Gold in Sochi.)

    Secondly, Julia is stellar for whatever hype she has. She's by far had the most consistent season (even though she's had poor performances here and there with falls), and her jumps are usually reliable (at this point). And even if she probably doesn't deserve it at this point, IMO, she's getting high 60's/low-70's for her PCS which will surely keep her on most podiums, if not a favourite to win. She is overwhelmingly the favourite in the world, unless Radionova continues to have strong skates and sees her PCS rise the way Julia's did (although Elena won't have the benefit of an Olympic year). Of course, Julia isn't perfection, and has shown vulnerability (e.g. Sochi/Cup of Russia) among her moments of brilliance, so I don't think she's unbeatable by any means. She's just probably the best bet at this point.
    I see Radionova and Pogorilaya surpassing Julia easily. After seeing Pogo at worlds, I'm convinced she is the best of the Russian fs brats.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Selene View Post
    Adelina is currently the best jumper in ladies' skating. Her 3T-3T and 2A-3T are monstrous. It's only the 3Lz(e)-3T that she underrotates.

    Adelina's jumps are way higher and much better quality (only jump of Gracie's that is better is the lutz, because Sotnikova's a flutzer.) Gracie gets zero flow out of her jumps and the height has disappeared since she started training with Frank Carroll. She looks emaciated and generates no power now. She didn't flub two double axels at the World Championships because she was nervous. She flubbed her axels because she has horrible technique on that jump. It's a whippy, Lipnitskaia-style double axel. Just watch the videos from Stars on Ice. She was flubbing her double axels and getting zero height on the jump there, too.

    Gracie has been on the senior scene for two seasons and she's never won an international competition. Yet, the US fans are so desperate for a ladies star that they keep pushing her as a contender on the world stage. She can't compete with the Russians. She doesn't have the artistry (the pageant girl act doesn't count), consistency or jump quality to do it. She has a long history of being a poor competitor (blowing the lead every time she has had it after the short program.) She couldn't even win the B-level US Figure Skating Classic that was set up for her to win, so she's perfectly capable of blowing Skate America, too.
    Gracie has better speed and flow than Adelina, and she has tighter rotation. Despite the wonky air position, her technique is overall superior. Adelina's jumps are purely based on power. She doesn't have as much control, which is why she can't do a Lz properly.

  10. #55
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    I see Radionova and Pogorilaya surpassing Julia easily. After seeing Pogo at worlds, I'm convinced she is the best of the Russian fs brats.
    I don't think Yulia or Elena will be surpassed easily by anyone. Judging Anna's future based on her WC skate (where she had 3 months of rest BTW) is no more credible than me judging on Russian Nats results. Can you imagine if Gracie had placed 8th at US Nationals. Would you say she was poised to take the world? Yet you say it of Anna after losing her Nationals event to Proklova,Serafima,and Leonova in the the event she did prior? I do think Anna skated great at Worlds but how that translates into "she is going to easily surpass" anyone, let alone two of the most consistent skaters in ladies FS is baffling.

    I really don't understand when people like you bash Yulia's jumps as if height were the only criteria. Why is it at WC's this year her "tiny" 3lz-3t scored as the highest element by any lady? Why too did she have the second highest average TES for the entire season without Sochi even factored in? It's alright not to like her but lets keep it real. She will not be surpassed easily by anyone. The field is going to be much more even next year so anyone can make a move and capitalize. Anyone. Including Yulia and Gracie and Anna.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    I really don't understand when people like you bash Yulia's jumps as if height were the only criteria.
    Height is not the only criteria, but it one of the most important criteria, ESPECIALLY for a young girl who has not yet developed a body. A skater who has tiny jumps and relies on fast rotation to get around is going to suffer when she - inevitably - becomes a young woman. You can complain about it all you like but Yulia's jumps are not good and she is really going to struggle when she develops.

    Yulia is not the bees' knees and she's got a long way to go before she is. Her jumps need major work if they're to survive, and getting her to listen to the music might help her total disconnection from it.

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    I would say she receives those GOEs because of judging politics. She is the premiere/senior skater right now, not just from Russia, but from the European continent. And because she's been clean so consistently the judges are happy to give her extra points, whereas someone like Pogo faces more scrutiny. And I said, either Radionova or Pogo will surpass Yulia. I'm not just looking at jump height. To me both skaters have more desirable qualities to their overall skating---power, flow, speed, interpretation. To me Julia is doing the maximum she can with her body right now. Either she is going to turn into a more natural and powerful skater, or (more likely) we have seen the peak of her potential.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    I see Radionova and Pogorilaya surpassing Julia easily. After seeing Pogo at worlds, I'm convinced she is the best of the Russian fs brats.
    One performance, eh, and suddenly Pogo's convincingly the best. You do realise she was 8th at Russian Nationals, too? I'm optimistic about her, but I'm not completely sold.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Selene View Post
    Adelina is currently the best jumper in ladies' skating. Her 3T-3T and 2A-3T are monstrous. It's only the 3Lz(e)-3T that she underrotates.

    Adelina's jumps are way higher and much better quality (only jump of Gracie's that is better is the lutz, because Sotnikova's a flutzer.) Gracie gets zero flow out of her jumps and the height has disappeared since she started training with Frank Carroll. She looks emaciated and generates no power now. She didn't flub two double axels at the World Championships because she was nervous. She flubbed her axels because she has horrible technique on that jump. It's a whippy, Lipnitskaia-style double axel. Just watch the videos from Stars on Ice. She was flubbing her double axels and getting zero height on the jump there, too.

    Gracie has been on the senior scene for two seasons and she's never won an international competition. Yet, the US fans are so desperate for a ladies star that they keep pushing her as a contender on the world stage. She can't compete with the Russians. She doesn't have the artistry (the pageant girl act doesn't count), consistency or jump quality to do it. She has a long history of being a poor competitor (blowing the lead every time she has had it after the short program.) She couldn't even win the B-level US Figure Skating Classic that was set up for her to win, so she's perfectly capable of blowing Skate America, too.
    I agree with everything except with Sotnikova being currently the best jumper. Sotnikova does have the best 2A+3T, and sometimes 3T+3T, but how can you say she's the best jumper when you concede that she flutzes and underrotates her 3Z+3T, while other skaters do 3Z+3T (Lip, Gold, Radionova, Pogorilaya) with full rotation? I also think there are skaters with much stronger 3F jumps and 3L jumps than Sotnikova. One plus she does have is doing more transitions into her jumps. But Gold has more height and distance on her jumps than Sotnikova, even if they're sometimes out of control (and yes, the axel is a weakness for Gold). As for Gold generating little flow, Sotnikova doesn't always achieve flow on her jumps herself (particularly her flip).

    Sotnikova showed excellent consistency at Euros and the Olympics, but she also had a very poor start to the season. If I was to put my money on a skater delivering a clean jumping performance, I'd wager on Lipnitskaia or Radionova way before Sotnikova.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8in View Post
    I would say she receives those GOEs because of judging politics. She is the premiere/senior skater right now, not just from Russia, but from the European continent. And because she's been clean so consistently the judges are happy to give her extra points, whereas someone like Pogo faces more scrutiny. And I said, either Radionova or Pogo will surpass Yulia. I'm not just looking at jump height. To me both skaters have more desirable qualities to their overall skating---power, flow, speed, interpretation. To me Julia is doing the maximum she can with her body right now. Either she is going to turn into a more natural and powerful skater, or (more likely) we have seen the peak of her potential.
    This. She can't generate the height that people desire from her due to her frame (Miyahara has the same issue). Perhaps if she grows a bit more and learns to develop a more athletic frame she will get more height on her jumps but I can't really picture her re-working herself into a "powerful" jumper instead of the quick rotater than she is now.

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