State of the U.S. Men 2014-2015
I'm hoping this can be a place to look at the American's men's field this season. Lots of stats and analysis to be expected here.
This is a placeholder post until I get all the stats and will be updated throughout the season.
As with the U.S. Ladies, I will focus on U.S. men who are senior nationally (so yes, JGP folks who are at the senior level nationally are included)
Max Aaron 240.22* (U.S. International Classic, 1st)
Richard Dornbush 237.28* (Lombardia Trophy, 1st)
Jason Brown 237.17 (Nebelhorn Trophy, 1st)
Ross Miner 227.26 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 1st) +9
Adam Rippon 220.75 (Finlandia Trophy, 2nd) -2
Stephen Carriere 219.76* (Ondrej Nepela Trophy, 1st) -7
Ross Miner 209.78 (U.S. International Classic, 2nd)
Nathan Chen 208.16 (JGP Croatia Cup, 2nd)
Grant Hochstein 204.37* (Lombardia Trophy, 4th )
Douglas Razanno 199.57* (U.S. International Classic, 4th)
Timothy Dolensky 196.93* (Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 4th)
Alexander Johnson 193.06 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 8th)
Alexander Johnson 191.41 (Nebelhorn Trophy, 6th )
Jordan Moeller 189.81* (U.S. International Classic, 7th)
Shotaro Omori 173.54 (ISU Poka der Baluen Schwerter 2014, 6th)
Shotaro Omori 165.97 (JGP Ljubljana Cup, 4th)
Jason Brown 83.59 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Ross Miner 80.24 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Richard Dornbush 79.36 (Lombardia Trophy)
Max Aaron 78.96* (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Grant Hochstein 72.92* (Lombardia Trophy)
Nathan Chen 72.57 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Stephen Carriere 71.18 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
Alexander Johnson 69.20* (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Adam Rippon 68.53 (Finlandia Trophy)
Ross Miner 67.06 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Alexander Johnson 66.99 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Shotaro Omori 66.30 ((ISU Poka der Baluen Schwerter 2014)
Douglas Razzano 66.15* (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Jordan Moeller 64.21 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Timothy Dolensky 63.69* (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Shotaro Omori 58.82 (JGP Ljubljana Cup)
Jason Brown 43.50
Richard Dornbush 42.51
Ross Miner 42.49* (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Max Aaron 41.01
Nathan Chan 40.36
Stephen Carriere 38.33
Grant Hochstein 37.97
Shotaro Omori 35.52 (JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter)
Adam Rippon 34.13
Douglas Razzano 33.85
Alexander Johnson 33.29 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Shotaro Omori 32.71 (JGP Ljubljana Cup)
Jordan Moeller 31.71
Alexander Johnson 30.94 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Timothy Dolensky 30.94 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Ross Miner 30.46 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Jason Brown 40.09
Max Aaron 38.95
Ross Miner 38.75* (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Richard Dornbush 37.85
Ross Miner 36.60 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Alexander Johnson 36.05
Alexander Johnson 35.91
Adam Rippon 35.40
Grant Hochstein 34.95
Stephen Carriere 33.85
Jordan Moeller 33.50
Douglas Razzano 33.30
Nathan Chen 33.21
Timothy Dolensky 32.75
Shotaro Omori 30.78 (ISU Pokal der Baluen Schwerter 2014)
Shotaro Omori 28.11 (JGP Ljubljana Cup)
Max Aaron 161.26
Richard Dornbush 157.92*
Jason Brown 153.58
Adam Rippon 152.22
Stephen Carriere 148.58*
Ross Miner 147.02 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Ross Miner 142.72 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Nathan Chen 135,59
Douglas Razzano 133.42*
Grant Hochstein 131.45*
Jordan Moeller 125.60*
Alexander Johnson 122.21*
Shotaro Omori 107.24 (JGP Pokal der Baluen Schwerter 2014)
Shotaro Omori 107.15 (JGP Ljubljana Cup)
Max Aaron 83.46
Adam Rippon 77.82
Richard Dornbush 76.92
Stephen Carriere 75.18
Ross Miner 69.52 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Timothy Dolensky 69.44 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic
Nathan Chen 68.45
Jason Brown 67.74
Ross Miner 67.72 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Douglas Razzano 64.32
Grant Hochstein 62.35
Jordan Moeller 60.70
Alexander Johnson 57.77 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Alexander Johnson 53.55 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Shotaro Omori 47.43
Shotaro Omori 43.38 (ISU Poka der Baluen Schwerter 2014)
Jason Brown 85.84*
Richard Dornbush 81.00*
Max Aaron 78.80*
Ross Miner 77.50* (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Ross Miner 75.00 (U.S. International Figure Skating Classic)
Adam Rippon 74.40
Stephen Carriere 73.40*
Grant Hochstein 71.10*
Douglas Razzano 70.10*
Alexander Johnson 69.66* (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Alexander Johnson 69.70 (Skate Canada Autumn Classic)
Nathan Chen 67.14
Jordan Moeller 66.90*
Timothy Dolensky 64.80
Shotaro Omori 63.86 (ISU Poka der Baluen Schwerter 2014)
Shotaro Omori 60.72
Max Aaron — 87
Richard Dornbush — 83
Jason Brown — 82
Ross Miner — 74
Adam Rippon — 29
Stephen Carriere — 16
Grant Hochstein — 7
Nathan Chen — 7
*ISU Personal Best
Initial thoughts and observations.
1.) Field is WIDE open. I consider it a clean slate. Jason Brown and Jeremy Abbott may have been top two last year, but I certainly can see a completely different turnout for the three worlds spots in 2015. It's a bit early to say where the momentum lies, but Richard Dornbush is looking pretty good as is Max Aaron so far. We'll see how Jason looks after Nebelhorn this weekend.
2.) Quad, quad, quad? Who will land it? Max Aaron is the only U.S. man to have a ratified quad so far this season. Dornbush and Miner attempted 4S. Douglas Razzano and Grant Hochstein attempted 4T. No sign of a quad from Jason Brown yet.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 10-16-2014 at 10:20 PM.
Thank you for the lists, Mrs. P! I agree with your thoughts and observations. Very excited to see how the season shapes up for the men.
I think if Ricky Dornbush could ever skate 2 clean programs he'd be awesome. Seems to have a consistency problem. He looked so good at Nats this year in the SP and then along came the LP and ............................. I'm also looking forward to seeing what Josh Farris does this year, too,
The future is bright with Brown, Miner, dornbush, Chen?, Rippon, Aaron and Abbott might surprise everyone with a great year. And there are others too. They might even win a world medal with Chan gone. Japan weakened and Hanyu injured. Russia somewhat in flux and inconsistent. That leave Javier and Denis Ten who are prone to bad skates too. Canada has no real threat though Reynolds could get his act together before his boot problems last season. There are three medals and a US skater could snatch one of those elusive medals.
Love popcorn, hate horendous costumes
I don't think Javi and Denis Ten are prone to bad skates. They are just the same as PChan in term of consistency.
Originally Posted by Skater Boy
Normally with his performances in Saitama, Javi could have been the gold medalist in the previous year (he can beat PChan and even Denis Ten in 2013).
Denis can peak at worlds, and with his reputation as the world silver medalist and Olympic bronze, he have more chances to medal than the US men.
China has great jumper like Han Yan, and with Worlds at Sanghai, he has really good chance for medal.
Russia is leveling up their men field. Gachinski and Kovtun are still young and they can develop some concistency.
Japan only weakens in the ladies field with Mao staying out, but their men field are not that weak. Without Dai and Nobu, they still have 4 men having good chances at medaling (Hanyu, Takahiko, Machida, Mura).
Machida can pull together 2 clean perforamances and get high scores. Takahiko also can tie with the US men, when he is on he might be much better. And Hanyu's injury doesn't hinder his chance of competing at Worlds even if he skipped the GP series. And he hasn't pulled out of any GP yet.
Overall I'd say, without PChan, other men have more chances at medals, but it's open for everyone, not just for the US men.
Not to mention, There is a high chance of PChan coming back in season 2015-2016.
I see your point Meoima; Ido think Ferandez and Ten get a little bit over marked to Hanyu Tak and Chan. Their skating skills arenot the same level though they are getting some big tricks done sometimes. Fernandez reminds bit of Candelero - one of those great personality skaters. but the US boys are capable of big tricks and some style. They just need to to get somenoe consistently on top is it Brown that seems to be the current darling or will Abbott seize the day - as a rsult of his age and artistry I can see him winning a world medal and then retiring (or I can se ehim winning a medal and the maybe "staying around too long" and having that bronze medal curse - somehow you get these bronze medallis who sneak in for amedal then they sort of whither away).
Love popcorn, hate horendous costumes
Yeah, Jeremy is capable of getting a bronze at worlds IF he can pull 2 programs together. That would be great for him to end his career. I still think he should have been placed 4th at Saitama instead of 5. But I don't know if he can pull it together. I hope all the best for him.
Originally Posted by Skater Boy
As for Jason I can see him in top 5 at best, not sure about medal since he need 1 or 2 quad for a medal. I think Max has better chance at medal than Jason since Max has quads.
The thing is Abott landing quads in both SP and LP in one competition is very unlikely We will see this season, but he is not getting younger. And still this isn't enough if other guys with big weapons will deliver. I would say that from US men biggest weapons have AAron but there is big problem delivering that all
I really hope this is Jeremy's last season competing. US men are in good shape if inconsistent but then so is Jeremy and he's pushing 30 so his tech is maxed out while the younger guys can keep pushing themselves.
Regardless of whether Jeremy medals or not there have been many great skaters who sadly never got a world medal. Josee Chouinard, Emanuel Sandhu,Malinana, I just hope he can move on.
The US men are in best shape since Evan Lysacek was competing. I expect Max Aaron, Joshua Farris and Jason Brown to be the top 3 this year.
Jeremy's medal chances depend not only on his own performances, but on how the others skate. In an event as well skated as 2014 Worlds, he won't medal no matter what he does (though he possibly deserved 4th). He just doesn't have the technical arsenal to compete with the two+ quad guys, and though some enjoy his artistry, his years of inconsistency will not give him the PCS to make up for the TES deficit.
That being said, 2014 Worlds was an unusually well skated event, and it's probably too optimistic to expect it every year. If a few favourites bomb, Jeremy can sneak up for bronze if he skates his absolute best. Unfortunately, it's also too optimistic to expect a clean SP + LP from Jeremy in a badly skated event.
Love popcorn, hate horendous costumes
Totally agree, sad truth but true. maybe all well skate at Saitama were partially due to the warmness of the audience?
Originally Posted by Sandpiper
Agreed, though I wouldn't be surprised if dornbush manages a few upsets throughout the season if the other three don't skate clean. (especially if Jason holds off on the quad AND skates poorly)
Originally Posted by fallingsk8er