Grand Prix Final places on line at NHK Trophy
Hongo really has NO shot at a GPF spot unless three skaters with less than 7 points fill the podium at NHK and that is astronomically unlikely.
If Miyahara wins and Murakami finishes second, Kanako must earn more total points than Ashley Wagner---nearly 195 points at NHK. That's more than 25 points more than she scored at CoC. If Kanako doesn't beat Wagner's total score, Wagner gets the final GPF spot.
If Murakami wins and Miyahara finishes second, it's more likely that Satoko could beat Ashley's total score, since she would need only 182 points at NHK; she earned 181.75 at Skate Canada.
Of course, that's saying that Gracie Gold and Polina Edmunds are noncontenders. Maybe Polina probably can't make the final, but she could be a spoiler, and Gracie certainly could take one of the top two spots and make the final herself. She would need 184.37 to beat Wagner's total score, and simply not making the unusual spin mistake in the SP as she did at SA would have given her that score.