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Thread: Skaters with highest chances for podium/Lucky draws for Grand Prix

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    Skaters with highest chances for podium/Lucky draws for Grand Prix

    every season some GP events will be stacked while others have a more limited/depleted entries
    unless your a reliable Ranked No.1 skater or very consistent, some skaters will have the lucky draws and rely on the GP seeded entries
    to win a medal, make the GPF

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    Kavagti/Smirnov - good entry draws both at SA ( even more now that B/H have split ? ) and NHK
    Volosozhar / Trankov current No.1
    Yuzuru Hanyu - current No.1
    Gracie Gold
    Adelina Sotnikova
    Waever / Poje

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    This can be pretty unpredictable. There are certainly skaters who have good chances to podium (see: the Grand Prix assignments thread for lots of discussion on that). But placements really depend on performance of the field on that day.

    Take ladies for instance, consider the top 4 placements in each GP:
    NHK: 207.59 (1st), 191.81 (2nd), 179.32 (3rd), 177.81 (4th)
    SA: 204.55 (1st), 193.81 (2nd), 183.95 (3rd), 176.75 (4th)
    SC: 198.23 (1st), 193.75(2nd), 186.65 (3rd), 173.69 (4th)
    RC: 190.90 (1st), 190.12 (2nd), 175.37 (3rd), 171.87 (4th)
    CoC: 178.62 (1st), 174.70 (2nd), 173.40 (3rd), 165.95 (4th)
    TEB: 194.37 (1st), 189.81 (2nd), 184.69 (3rd), 172.70 (4th)

    Note that the 4th placements at NHK and Skate America, would have - with the same score - won bronze at CoC and silver at RC.
    Any of the bronze medalists at SA, NHK, SC, and TEB would have won CoC with their score.

    Even an elite skater with good PCS - say, Kostner - could do skate good (but not outstanding) and win - i.e. if she skated her 190.12 CoR performance at CoC... or poorly enough to place 4th (if she scored bronze-winning 173.40 CoC at RC/TEB) or 5th (if she scored 173.40 at SA/NHK/SC).

    And as the scores show, last season a skater usually needed 190ish to get gold/silver (but Anna only needed 178.62 at CoC), and to make the podium, skaters could score as little as 173.40. But taking out the outliers (highest and lowest):
    Average gold score: 197.01
    Average silver score: 191.37
    Average bronze score: 180.83

  4. #4
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    Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mustafakent View Post
    Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final.
    Agree

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    Quote Originally Posted by mustafakent View Post
    Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final.
    Yeah, that's who I predict too.

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    I don't know, prediction like this never seem to play out how you expect, so I'm thinking one person on this list list will be out because of a surprise from one of the other potential skaters.

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    I think Pairs is the most secure for the GPF spots with the most break ups

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    With dance, I'd say Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte, and Bobrova/Soloviev have a lock on it. I'd count Chock/Bates as having a high chance too as American number one.
    The other two slots could go to anyone from the Shibs to Papadakis/Cizeron to either of the new Russian teams. This dance season is going to be exciting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Kavagti/Smirnov
    This is extremely hard to predict. They were out of competition for an entire season due to injury and there's no telling if they'll be able to show their previous form. They're very lucky though to get a draw at NHK with really just D/R as the more-than-likely team to beat them (obviously B/D is another unpredictable matchup, but I think K/S with their experience/longer-developed chemistry and good standing with the judges as a former world medalist should help them defeat B/D).

    D/R actually have an easy chance to make the GPF... should easily come 2nd if not win NHK and should be top 3 (or win) Skate Canada.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Isabel_O'Reilly View Post
    I don't know, prediction like this never seem to play out how you expect, so I'm thinking one person on this list list will be out because of a surprise from one of the other potential skaters.
    I agree. I think at least one of, but more likely two of, the top Russians (Julia, Elena, Adelina and Anna) will struggle this season. They are all so young that only Adelina has had a dip in form which she recovered from just in time for Sochi. Ashley I also think might be less of a factor because she has kept the same level for about three years now and I think it might be hard for her to stay motivated to keep up with the young skaters who can outjump and outspin her. It's hard to predict the GPF because I think the entire ladies SA and SC podiums could be filled with surprises.

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    I also agree that some of the top Russians might struggle. If I were to pick two, it would be Anna and Adelina. Adelina had renewed consistency at the end of last season, but motivation and trying to replicate near perfect programs (especially when she has struggled in the early season) will be difficult. Anna still needs to convince me that she's the real deal - her Worlds performances were superb but some of her GP performances still had issues and her Russian Nationals was also poor... I have high hopes for her though because I love her level of basic skating and the edges she's able to generate (her arms need refinement though). Radionova is fresh on the scene (well, 2nd GP season) and has an infectious exuberance, a good track record of consistency that rivals Julia (not to mention slightly greater jumping difficulty). Julia's PCS is at a level where she can make errors and still win, and if she's consistent then she's pretty much unbeatable given the level her PCS is at. One also assumes Julia will develop greater maturity in her skating and refinement (as we saw during the course of last season, especially compared to Julia's previous one).

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    Yes, I think Adelina and Anna are still dark horses, after all: we all saw their great performances at the end of the season, but don't forget Adelina's GPF FS for example, just a couple of months before the Olympics... If they skate well, they can easily place on the podium, but if they don't there are a lot of skaters who will be ready to beat them.
    Osmond and Hicks are the ones that could earn a medal if someone bombs, since they have very difficult events and if the others skate well they can be beaten

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    Stolbova/Klimov and Volosozhar/Trankov are the only ones who I'm not worried about. I think they both will win two GP's. If healthy of course.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by mustafakent View Post
    Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final.
    Hmm my gut instincts tell me that Polina Edmunds or Elena Radionova may have greater chances than Ashley. Radionova is fairly steady and has a good ability to rescue her jump layouts if she miss a triple early. Polina reminds me very much of a very young, coltish Carolina Kostner, all long limbs and fearlessness - confident she will mature and do well as she matures.

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