Skaters with highest chances for podium/Lucky draws for Grand Prix | Golden Skate

Skaters with highest chances for podium/Lucky draws for Grand Prix

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
every season some GP events will be stacked while others have a more limited/depleted entries
unless your a reliable Ranked No.1 skater or very consistent, some skaters will have the lucky draws and rely on the GP seeded entries
to win a medal, make the GPF
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Kavagti/Smirnov - good entry draws both at SA ( even more now that B/H have split ? ) and NHK
Volosozhar / Trankov current No.1
Yuzuru Hanyu - current No.1
Gracie Gold
Adelina Sotnikova
Waever / Poje
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
This can be pretty unpredictable. There are certainly skaters who have good chances to podium (see: the Grand Prix assignments thread for lots of discussion on that). But placements really depend on performance of the field on that day.

Take ladies for instance, consider the top 4 placements in each GP:
NHK: 207.59 (1st), 191.81 (2nd), 179.32 (3rd), 177.81 (4th)
SA: 204.55 (1st), 193.81 (2nd), 183.95 (3rd), 176.75 (4th)
SC: 198.23 (1st), 193.75(2nd), 186.65 (3rd), 173.69 (4th)
RC: 190.90 (1st), 190.12 (2nd), 175.37 (3rd), 171.87 (4th)
CoC: 178.62 (1st), 174.70 (2nd), 173.40 (3rd), 165.95 (4th)
TEB: 194.37 (1st), 189.81 (2nd), 184.69 (3rd), 172.70 (4th)

Note that the 4th placements at NHK and Skate America, would have - with the same score - won bronze at CoC and silver at RC.
Any of the bronze medalists at SA, NHK, SC, and TEB would have won CoC with their score.

Even an elite skater with good PCS - say, Kostner - could do skate good (but not outstanding) and win - i.e. if she skated her 190.12 CoR performance at CoC... or poorly enough to place 4th (if she scored bronze-winning 173.40 CoC at RC/TEB) or 5th (if she scored 173.40 at SA/NHK/SC).

And as the scores show, last season a skater usually needed 190ish to get gold/silver (but Anna only needed 178.62 at CoC), and to make the podium, skaters could score as little as 173.40. But taking out the outliers (highest and lowest):
Average gold score: 197.01
Average silver score: 191.37
Average bronze score: 180.83
 

mustafakent

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 17, 2011
Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final. :love:
 

Isabel_O'Reilly

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 30, 2013
I don't know, prediction like this never seem to play out how you expect, so I'm thinking one person on this list list will be out because of a surprise from one of the other potential skaters.
 

fleeting

Queen Anissina
Medalist
Joined
Feb 19, 2014
With dance, I'd say Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte, and Bobrova/Soloviev have a lock on it. I'd count Chock/Bates as having a high chance too as American number one.
The other two slots could go to anyone from the Shibs to Papadakis/Cizeron to either of the new Russian teams. This dance season is going to be exciting.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Kavagti/Smirnov

This is extremely hard to predict. They were out of competition for an entire season due to injury and there's no telling if they'll be able to show their previous form. They're very lucky though to get a draw at NHK with really just D/R as the more-than-likely team to beat them (obviously B/D is another unpredictable matchup, but I think K/S with their experience/longer-developed chemistry and good standing with the judges as a former world medalist should help them defeat B/D).

D/R actually have an easy chance to make the GPF... should easily come 2nd if not win NHK and should be top 3 (or win) Skate Canada.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I don't know, prediction like this never seem to play out how you expect, so I'm thinking one person on this list list will be out because of a surprise from one of the other potential skaters.

I agree. I think at least one of, but more likely two of, the top Russians (Julia, Elena, Adelina and Anna) will struggle this season. They are all so young that only Adelina has had a dip in form which she recovered from just in time for Sochi. Ashley I also think might be less of a factor because she has kept the same level for about three years now and I think it might be hard for her to stay motivated to keep up with the young skaters who can outjump and outspin her. It's hard to predict the GPF because I think the entire ladies SA and SC podiums could be filled with surprises.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I also agree that some of the top Russians might struggle. If I were to pick two, it would be Anna and Adelina. Adelina had renewed consistency at the end of last season, but motivation and trying to replicate near perfect programs (especially when she has struggled in the early season) will be difficult. Anna still needs to convince me that she's the real deal - her Worlds performances were superb but some of her GP performances still had issues and her Russian Nationals was also poor... I have high hopes for her though because I love her level of basic skating and the edges she's able to generate (her arms need refinement though). Radionova is fresh on the scene (well, 2nd GP season) and has an infectious exuberance, a good track record of consistency that rivals Julia (not to mention slightly greater jumping difficulty). Julia's PCS is at a level where she can make errors and still win, and if she's consistent then she's pretty much unbeatable given the level her PCS is at. One also assumes Julia will develop greater maturity in her skating and refinement (as we saw during the course of last season, especially compared to Julia's previous one).
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
Yes, I think Adelina and Anna are still dark horses, after all: we all saw their great performances at the end of the season, but don't forget Adelina's GPF FS for example, just a couple of months before the Olympics... If they skate well, they can easily place on the podium, but if they don't there are a lot of skaters who will be ready to beat them.
Osmond and Hicks are the ones that could earn a medal if someone bombs, since they have very difficult events and if the others skate well they can be beaten :think:
 

Snow63

Pray one day we'll open our eyes.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Stolbova/Klimov and Volosozhar/Trankov are the only ones who I'm not worried about. I think they both will win two GP's. If healthy of course.
 

Globetrotter

Medalist
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
Ladies GPF contestants probably will be like Gracie, Ashley, Yulia, Elena, Anna and Adelina.Two American and four Russian ladies.I hope my dear Ashley will make it to final. :love:

Hmm my gut instincts tell me that Polina Edmunds or Elena Radionova may have greater chances than Ashley. Radionova is fairly steady and has a good ability to rescue her jump layouts if she miss a triple early. Polina reminds me very much of a very young, coltish Carolina Kostner, all long limbs and fearlessness - confident she will mature and do well as she matures.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I think they both have the potential to beat Ashley, but if Ashley shows her usual early season confidence, it might be harder to beat her than many people are saying.

Wagner won't face off against Edmunds until the second half of the season (or the GPF if both happen to make it). Edmunds has a tougher path to the GPF than Wagner, though. Wagner will face Elena at TEB, but Wagner has also won TEB the past two years, so she's comfortable performing well there.

It'll be interesting to see if Radionova can defeat Gold (which she's done last season) and Wagner (which she could certainly do this season). Her "junior" status has always held back her PCS but with consistent performances, she could do what Lip did last season and boost her standing with the judges in a very short period of time. I think it'll be a breakout season for her.

Unfortunately for Osmond she has very little chance of making the GPF given that she'll be at TEB... however, at TEB with not much to lose and not being a favourite, who knows, she could surprise. Skate Canada however is a much easier prospect for her to medal. If Anna or Ashley replicate their Nationals skates from last season, Osmond even has a chance to win.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I'm about 75% sure that Miyahara wins NHK trophy (and qualify for GPF).

Sotnikova ALWAYS bombed in Japan
2012 WTT 4th (should be one place lower)
2013 WTT 4th (1st after the SP)
2013 JO 4th
2013 GPF 5th (2nd after the SP)

It was a wise decision to skip worlds. If she could stave off Pogorilaya in Russia she would make to GPF but most likely doesn't win in Japan.

Gold tends to skate poorly in Japan
2012 WTT 5th (not very bad)
2013 4CC 6th
2013 WTT 3d (only "good" one)
2013 NHK 4th
2014 WC 5th (disappointed?)

Murakami has never scored higher than 170 points at GPS in past four years. Plus the new rule on "e" could work very negatively for her.

Edmunds is on the same level as Miyahara but the home advantage should make the difference (especially in Osaka).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I wouldn't be entirely sure. Miyahara didn't exactly do super amazing herself at NHK last year, coming 5th with 170 points and got nailed with 4 UR jumps over the course of the competition.

FYI, Gold beat her last year, and has a huge edge over her PCS wise. Note that Satoko's perfect 4CC freeskate was only 2-3 points higher than Gold's poor Worlds FS.

Murakami also beat Miyahara at 4CC by over 10 points (and of course, Japanese Nationals). The "e" rule won't affect her too significantly since she only does one lutz in the entire competition. Although she is unpredictable and can get nailed for URs just as badly as Satoko.

Sotnikova should also easily beat Miyahara unless she produces a freeskate like at the GPF last year.

The biggest issue for Miyahara is that she is so prone to UR jumps, that really affect her base mark. That coupled with her "girlishness" (which she can't help) also holds back her PCS compared to Sotnikova/Murakami/Gold. 75% is much too high a prediction for Miyahara but it would be a huge upset if she managed to win (which I think she has the slimmest chance of doing if many of the others help her out).

As for GPF qualification. I think she can hope for 2nd at best at Skate Canada... but will likely place 3rd or lower (losing to Wagner and Pogorilaya). One day, maybe, but I highly doubt Miyahara will make the GPF next season, unless she's had a drastic improvement to her jumps.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Gold or Sotnikova don't have a huge PCS advantage against Miyahara in the home advantage situation. Wagner was given the higher PCS than Mao at 2012 4CC (in fact, Wagner improved her PB by 25 points there). Sotnikova was given almost the same PCS with Kim (and higher than Kostner ) in Sochi. Osmond was given (you know) at SC two years ago. Hanyu's GPF win could be included as a good example. The same thing will happen in Osaka (Miyahara's home town). Because of the rule change, the JSF will try to prop up Miyahara with their best effort. Elevating her status and reputation should be the key to save three spots.
 
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