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Thread: SP/LP: Combined number of quads

  1. #31
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    Zhang/Reynolds/Fernandez/Kovtun/Hanyu/Goebel/Joubert/Honda/Klimkin have all done at least one program with two different quads landed.

    Also, I said they landed it, not mastered it. There are plenty of skaters who haven't mastered triple axels (e.g. Chan/Lambiel) but they still attempt it. If skaters only did elements they've mastered, then you wouldn't even get skaters trying any quad (as many of the top men have yet to master them). I don't expect most of the men to have mastered 2 quads, considering most have to master even one type, but they should still be comfortable enough to compete two different quads (obviously the risk is always there when competing quads).

    A man doing 2 quads of the same type is fine, but I think men should be challenging themselves to try another quad. Just like for a while it was fine for a man to just do 2 triple axels and avoid the quad, but they should slowly attempt to bring the quad into their repertoire. By 2018/2020, we should be seeing the men at least committed to getting two different quads and starting to bring that into competition (18 years after Goebel landed 3 quads at the Olympics, mind you). I would not like to see a men's competition in 2018 where a FS with just 1 quad and 2 triple axels was as ambitious as any top 10 skater wanted to be.

    I would hope by 2018 the planned/attempted FS layouts are something like: 1 quad and 2 axels for top 10. 2 quads and 1 axel for top 8. Either 2 quads + 2 axels or 3 quads + 1 axel for top 5, and 3 quads 2 axels as a podium standard. No quad attempt or just one quad attempt that was failed = out of the top 10.

  2. #32
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    Of course no one's going to hit a quad 100% of the time. No one's even going to hit a triple toe loop 100% of the time. I'd say Hanyu has mastered the quad toe, for instance, even though he has fallen on it. He hasn't mastered the quad salchow because his falls vastly outweigh how many he lands.

    There are plenty of skaters who haven't mastered triple axels (e.g. Chan/Lambiel) but they still attempt it.
    They kinda don't have a choice, because axel jump is required. Plenty of times, Lambiel's so-called triple axel ends up as a double anyway. Also, the triple axel has been a mainstay since the late '80s. The quad salchow, not so much.

    A man doing 2 quads of the same type is fine, but I think men should be challenging themselves to try another quad.
    I think men should be challenging themselves when they are capable of it. Falling all the time is not impressive.

    I would hope by 2018 the planned/attempted FS layouts are something like: 1 quad and 2 axels for top 10. 2 quads and 1 axel for top 8. Either 2 quads + 2 axels or 3 quads + 1 axel for top 5, and 3 quads 2 axels as a podium standard. No quad attempt or just one quad attempt that was failed = out of the top 10.
    See, that's where you and I differ: You think in terms of what you'd like to see the men planning. I think in terms of what I'd like to see the men landing. I'd like to see the three medallists landing at minimum 1 quad in the SP + 2 quads in the LP. And not falling in more than one program. I couldn't care less whether they planned three or planned five. If they can do two types of quads, great, but I'm not fussed about it. I want to see quad combinations better rewarded anyway.

    I would hope all the top 10 can do two triple axels, whether they do five quads or zero. One triple axel is mainly for the huge anomalies who are no good at axel jumps. There's only about one podium contender per generation with that problem. I hope it doesn't become such a general problem in 2018 that we have more than 1 skater in the top ten who struggles with the triple axel.

  3. #33
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    I agree that falling all the time isn't impressive, but if a skater has shown ability to at least land a quad toe, in this day and age, there's no reason they shouldn't be doing two attempts of that in a FS. If they can land a 4S an 4T in practice, then they should be willing to attempt both (and ideally 3 quads) in a program - by 2018, that is.

    Just as you hope all the top 10 can do two triple axels (or feels comfortable enough to try two triple axels), I would hope the top 10 would be comfortable enough to do two quad attempts in a FS by 2018, with several pushing to try a different quad and thus do 3 quad attempts in their FS. Obviously it's a huge risk, but so is trying a 3-3 in the SP for the ladies when a well executed 3-2 gets almost the same points as a 3-3<.

    It's understandable that every man may have problems with their 3A. Hanyu himself missed a few last season and he's arguably the most consistent with his 3A (having hit 19/22 - 86%... singles at SC and Finlandia and a touchdown at Finlandia). Kovtun's 3A success rate is actually better -- he hit 16/18 - 88% - clean 3A's last season, having only stepped out of his 3A at CoR and singled his axel at the GPF. Although obviously Hanyu's is far superior in quality.

  4. #34
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    I think for sure we can expect in quad department good things from Yuzuru and Javier in coming seasons. If Yuzuru will go for 3 quads propably for season after next one it will be propably 3 different ones, which at ones scares me and excites . Maybe Javier will bring finally other quads to competition, as Hanyu said Javier also did loop ald lutz.

  5. #35
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    Well, I'm with you (both of you) in the sense that I want to see more quads landed. What I don't want is people with no chance in hell of landing 5 quads (or even 3 quads) trying it because of the minimal fall penalty, thus contributing to more splatfests.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandpiper View Post
    Well, I'm with you (both of you) in the sense that I want to see more quads landed. What I don't want is people with no chance in hell of landing 5 quads (or even 3 quads) trying it because of the minimal fall penalty, thus contributing to more splatfests.
    Agreed. It's not fun if somebody just rotates the quad and splats just to pick up more points than a clean 3F, 3Z or whatever. I honestly don't think most men would be so stupid to endanger themselves like that by trying elements that they have minimal success rate with in practice. Hanyu landed many 4S in practice, his issue is being able to replicate that in competition on a consistent basis (I believe the same goes for Chan's triple axel which he was reputedly much more consistent with in practice than competition).

  7. #37
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    Basically, I want skaters to get what they can do down pat before trying more difficult things. 5-quad skates are likely to resemble someone going hunting blind-folded, shooting bullets everywhere just hoping they'd hit something. Hanyu's been successful with the three quads only once this season (thank you for the info, HanDomi), so I'm not sure if adding an extra quad would be a good idea, when he already struggles with his current program. (His quad loop did look spectacular in video though, so I wouldn't mind, say, having him replace the 4S with 4Lo).

    I don't blame the skaters so much as the rules though. There needs to be a greater fall penalty to discourage this type of thing.

    The Patrick Chan triple axel situation is different from Hanyu's 4S (or some potential 5-quad Kovtun program). Patrick has no choice but to do the triple axel. There's no strategy about it. And in his defense, he mainly just steps out--doesn't go sprawling across the ice most of the time.

  8. #38
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    I looked at the quad attempts from last season and looked at how many were well-executed. For the purposes of this exercise, I counted any ratified quad with a GOE of at least -.5 (basically evan) or up.

    Among the top 24 SB men:

    The following skaters landed three or more quads with decent execution at one competition the GP/Euros/4CC/Olympics/Worlds:
    Patrick Chan (Trophee Eric Bompard (3), GPF (3))
    Tatsuki Machida (Skate America (3), Worlds (3))
    Javier Fernandez (Euros (3), Worlds (3)
    Maxim Kovtun (Cup of China (4), Rostelecom Cup (3)
    Konstantin Menshov (NHK Trophy (3))

    And the follow has landed at least two:
    Yuzuru Hanyu (Trophee Eric Bompard, GPF, Olympics, Worlds)
    Sergei Voronov (NHK, Euros)
    Takahito Mura (4CC)
    Michel Brezina (GP, Euros, Olympics)
    Nam Song (4CC)
    Brian Joubert (Olympics)

    The following men in the SB 24 landed at least one quad with solid GOE in ALL ISU GP/Championships:
    Patrick Chan
    Tatsuki Machida
    Sergei Voronov
    Yan Han
    Max Aaron

    If you give one competition as an outlier you can add:
    Yuzuru Hanyu (Skate Canada he got -GOE on all his quads)
    Javier Fernandez
    Nobunari Oda
    Denis Ten
    Nam Song
    Tomas Verner
    Brian Joubert

    That means out of the top 24 SB, about half can land a quad in every competition somewhat consistently. And on a good day, about half the field can land two quads. The percentage of SB 24 who can land three or more, however, goes down to 21 percent. And the percentage of the field that can do so consistency is pretty much nil. (At best, we got Patrick Chan who did it in half of the four major ISU competitions, GPs/GPF/Olympics).

    Conclusions? You need a two quads to podium and at least one to be in the top 10 for the most part (Jason Brown was a notable exception and that came with a poorly skated competition). However, I don't think we're there yet as far as having 3 or more quads being the standard among the men. So those who CAN do 3 or more quads consistency would certainly be way ahead of the pack with the caveat that they LAND EVERYTHING ELSE.
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 07-06-2014 at 06:30 PM.

  9. #39
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    [QUOTE=~Pamina~;957337]I don't know. Let's ask one of the jump-droids.



    I'm glad Yuzu has his OGM out of the way. I think he is going to take chances and push the envelope

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Conclusions? You need a two quads to podium and at least one to be in the top 10 for the most part (Jason Brown was a notable exception and that came with a poorly skated competition). However, I don't think we're there yet as far as having 3 or more quads being the standard among the men. So those who CAN do 3 or more quads consistency would certainly be way ahead of the pack with the caveat that they LAND EVERYTHING ELSE.
    Yes, quad is the must but having 3 quads doesn't guarantee you a win because you MUST execute everything else. Which is why Timothy Goebel was not the gold medalist at Salt Lake.

    But anyways, it's true this is the time go quad or go home.

    Putting 2 quads in a SP, in my mind, might not help raising the quality overall performance, if it's just for the sake of CoP then I understand.

    If Javi can do it consistently (putting 2 quad in SP), then other guys can try it as well. But Javi is the best quad jumper at the moment (with rumors that he can land 4 different quads already), so if he can't do it, I don't think other guys have much chances, either.

    Let's just wait and see.

  11. #41
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I think you could say that the reason Tim Goebel did not win in Salt Lake City was that he was up against two of the greatest skaters of all time, Yagudin and Plushenko.

  12. #42
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    Thanks Mrs. P!

    I think Goebel wasn't as artistically good as Yagudin/Plushenko, but at that point Plu/Yags could both pop a jump and do one less quad and still come out on top. I think under CoP it would have been closer.

    Also under CoP, Goebel would have been given MUCH more credit for the transitions leading into his jumps and Yags/Plushenko (hopefully) would have been dinged in the TR mark for not having as many.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I think you could say that the reason Tim Goebel did not win in Salt Lake City was that he was up against two of the greatest skaters of all time, Yagudin and Plushenko.
    Both are my love, lol. But frankly I don't think either of them can win a quad contest against Tim Goebel at Tim's prime. so yes, quad is a must to reach the podium but the whole package (choreography, presentation, other elements and jumps) is the must to be a champion.

    My point is, you should have 2 quads at least in both SP and LP, but if your presentation is poor, then forget it. Kovtun can even put 3 quads in a long program and 2 in the short if he can do it, but if he presents his LP like a sleepwalking zombie and execute other elements poorly, I see no reason for his PCS to be higher than 70. (in my humble opinion). How much I wish Gachinski to make a come back and to see how Tat consider her choice between these 2.

    If Javi can execute 4 or 5 different types of quads (as rumor has it) and he decides to execute them all, he is welcome but don't forget other elements or else it's hard for him to reach to the top. Though I can somewhat forgive him thanks to the sleeveless shirt as the new outfit.

  14. #44
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    If Javier wants to attempt 4 different quads, more power to him. However, they shouldn't just be for the heck of it. He should have at least somewhat of a handle on these quads in practice (even 20% of the time) to deem it competition worthy. Otherwise it could be another Olympics disaster if he triples them.

    I don't want to get quad crazy and eagerly hope that men are trying 4 different quads... but I would hope they would at least consider mastering two different types of quads come 2018, to show at least some progression over the next 4 years.

    I also think that people focus too much on an increased level of difficulty as detracting a ton from the program. I think a few less steps into a 4Z versus more transitions into an easier 3Z doesn't affect the interpretation of the program as a whole. A good skater like Javier won't let the importance of a quad overwhelm the rest of an otherwise wonderful program.

  15. #45
    Love popcorn, hate horendous costumes Meoima's Avatar
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    Javi's new SP, he performed it in an ice shows so he didn't try out the intended layout. But the commentators said he had 2 quads plan in this SP: http://youtu.be/vELBcJEujJM
    If he can perfect it, I expect a new world record.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    If Javier wants to attempt 4 different quads, more power to him. However, they shouldn't just be for the heck of it. He should have at least somewhat of a handle on these quads in practice (even 20% of the time) to deem it competition worthy. Otherwise it could be another Olympics disaster if he triples them.
    Same for Kovtun who is trying to put 5 quads in both of his program. We all know what happened to Kevin Reynolds. Javi has more chances of success, in my humble opinion, since he has much much better jumps than Kovtun both in term of quality and quantity.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I also think that people focus too much on an increased level of difficulty as detracting a ton from the program. I think a few less steps into a 4Z versus more transitions into an easier 3Z doesn't affect the interpretation of the program as a whole. A good skater like Javier won't let the importance of a quad overwhelm the rest of an otherwise wonderful program.
    I think we should take Brian Jourbert's words more seriously, when he said trying quads affects other elements of the program not positively. Yes if they think they can do it, why would stop them, but surely it will affect the program to some point. What matters is can they pull it together.

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