who's on schedule to peak at Torino?

Sorry I couldn't come up with a more original off-season question, but I figure it's going to be discussed anyway, so I thought I'd get some sort of official ball rolling...

I think it's going to be a real brawl, since there are so many contenders just past the two year mark, as showcased at this year's World Championships...

You don't have to pick a champ in any discipline, per se, just talk about what you expect certain skaters to have on their agenda and why their timing is right (or off) to make a strong bid for Olympic gold, that most coveted of skating prizes.

I have no clue on this one, that's why I'm asking...I'm just psyched to sit back and watch the marvelous skating produced by sooo much competitive tension in the air; the drama is bound to be grand...though I will venture some speculation on the major contenders...

Michelle seeks the lone prize that has eluded her in a formidable competitive career; she finally seems to have found a perfect coaching match (for this stage of her career, at any rate) and with the edge that her wily veteran experience and his considerable expertise--and tremendous respect, affection, and consideration for his skater--affords her, knows how to build on her existing abilities...but when venturing into uncharted territory (has her field of competitors ever been THIS deep and THIS hungry for her spot at the top? 2004 Worlds and all, she is not really the underdog yet, IMO), what can we expect come February 2006?

Sasha's hungry to win it all, having finished just off the podium last time and sick to death of all the buzzing in her ears about how great she is and how she should be winning it all, right now; how will the psychologically successful yet choreographically suspect pairing with Olympic champion coach RW...

Shizuka just coming into her powers and having the world at her very able feet and, with the winning Arakawa/Tarasova combination, the sky as the limit, finally...

The youngest (they're all young in my eyes) guns standing up after landing their bigger-than-life combos but remaining question marks in the artistry department, though all the potential is there and visible (and they're also hungry as all hell--Miki with the golden blades hinting at the color medal she's shooting for...Carolina just as daring to push the envelope, fast, furious, and with a good bit of growing up to do, and she certainly seems up for the challenge--the loverly Stephane Lambiel can certainly give her a few pointers in the artistry department...Cynthia Phaneuf MUST be full of frustration but also fire, looking to prove that her Nats win wasn't a fluke after it all fell apart for her at Jr. Worlds)

Irina just valiantly getting back into the game, just happy to be skating, but a truly courageous competitor who's used to standing victorious in her own right, even after having to compete against perhaps the most able competitor in the history of the sport during her prime, and she might be right on schedule to come back for the medal that just slipped through her fingers two years ago this February...or at least give it her best shot...

and so many more, and I haven't even discussed the men...

Evgeni Plushenko, whose luck (and quad) deserted him and cost him Olympic gold, which went to his nemesis, has since seemed (to me, anyway) to be competing with the fire that the loss lit under him...if his knee holds up (BIIIIIG if), we may be seeing him walk off (though barely) with the gold in Torino, courtesy of the quad loops, sals, three-jump combos, intensity, charisma that have won him nearly everything else but what he'll be looking for in Italy...

Brian Joubert wants it, wants it, wants it...his jumps sing, have solid, elegant landings most of the time (and a few fist pumps for good measure), his artistry doesn't (to me, at ALL), but it's as much about standing up in all phases of the competition as it is about being a complete skater (as Shen and Zhao, Michelle, Stephane Lambiel, and a few others saw at this Worlds), and his ambition seems to be keeping him on his feet when in head-to-head combat against his mentor's nemesis...

Stephane Lambiel...what can I say, all attempts at cool, levelheaded analysis go out the window and all I can muster is an "I HOPE he doesn't miss a jump and wins it all", but I see him on schedule and certainly capable of pulling out all the stops that he has available (though not a quad combo, which is another reason--besides the other SL's hometown heroics--he finished off the podium, IMHO)...

Johnny Weir+quad=medal of some color, and I see him and MK in the same boat in that respect, aside of course from the HUGE differential in experience, both have a very complete presentation/artistry arsenal and jumps with wonderful flow and runout, and the way they seem to just muster them, to land them at will, positively unruffled, give them big points in making the technical aspect a seamless part of a complete program, no hitches after hitting the "big ones"...

I'll stop here and let you all weigh in on this one if you feel inclined to do so; Torino is still a ways away, and charting the probable progress of the many great skaters in our midst (possible dark horses?) is probably the prime off-season activity...aside from tearing apart whatever the ISU proceedings on the CoP will yield...

Sarah

Interesting topic. Brian has made it clear he plans to "peak" at the Olympics - not beforehand. But, now that Stephane Lambiel has finished his studies...if he could actually settle down with
a training regimen and spend more time on the ice to get
the jump consistency, he could be a real force.

It will be fascinating to see how he plays out the coming season!

In the mens field I think Plushenko will have a tough time winning in Torino. He has injuries and he will be a little older than the young guys. I see Joubert or Johnny Weir winning the Olympic gold, and Plushenko getting silver again. Lambiel and Goebel (if he is injury free) could challenge for a podium spot.

In the pairs, S&Z will be unstoppable. I don't see any of the other pairs challenging them. Obertas and Slavnov have potential and they have Tamara Moskvina. I still don't see them beating S&Z, who seem to be very popular with the judges and the audiences. If they get beaten it will be by one of the Chinese pairs- Pang & Tong or Zhang & Zhang (that is, if they develop artistry). L&A or M&B of Canada could challenge for a podium spot by 2006, esp. if one of these pairs make a major mistake (you wouldn't have guessed that from this year's worlds). Will I&B develop enough to compete for a medal? Hard to tell. May know better next year.

In the ladies, Sasha will hit the peak by Torino. She will be tough to beat if she gets the quad salchow and/or a 3-3 combo. I don't see Arakawa winning in Torino. She will be 24. As much as I would love to see Michelle or Irina win the Olympic gold, it will be extremely difficult, even with a 3-3 combo. The challengers will be young, judging from the last 3 Olympics. Carolina Kostner will have the inside track, that is homefield advantage. A sleuth of Japanese ladies and one young US lady (could be Meissner, or one of the many talented young ladies). Possibly Phaneuf and someone from Scandinavia (I am forgetting her name) could be in the mix. Among the Japanese ladies Miki Ando could become a contender if she improves her artistry. Yukina Ota could become a contender if she improves her jumps. Arakawa has both but has the disadvantage of being older. Somehow it seems in the Olympics it matters.

In ice dance, I see both top teams (N&K and D&S) as getting old. If they stick around, they may get the top 2 spots, but Belbin-Agosto should give the USA its rare ice dance medal. Could be even better than bronze if one of these teams slows down. Faela-Scali of Italy could be in the mix, again with homefield advantage.

Vash

The fact is, no skater since Tenley Albright in 1952 has won an OGM without having been on a previous World podium (Tenley had to withdraw from Worlds 1951). Meissner won't be age-eligible to compete at Worlds 2005. If she makes the 2006 team, the Olympics will be her first major Senior International competition. Somehow, no matter how well she skates, I don't see her winning the OGM her first time out.

Oh how wonderful it would be to see Stephane win the Olys. It would show that great skating will be the choice over the jumpers. But I'm dreaming. Peaking for Stephane will be there but those jumpers will peak too.

For the Ladies, it willl be Beatrisa and Yukina . They are at the right age and neither has anything to lose.. The others will just freeze up and not be at their best, except for Michelle whom I do not think cares enough to go all out and really compete.

Shen and Zhao have peaked so many times. I see no reason not for them to do so at the Olys.

The Bulgarians will come into their own.

Predictions No way. Those will come down the road and be meaningless.

Joe

euterpe said:

The fact is, no skater since Tenley Albright in 1952 has won an OGM without having been on a previous World podium (Tenley had to withdraw from Worlds 1951).

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Tenley won OGM in 56.

In January, I made the following predictions on SkateFans re: Ladies-

1. Shizuka or Sasha would win this year [so far, so good ];
2. Sasha would probably win next year (as well as winning Nats);
3. Another "surprise" would occur at the Olympics (along the lines of Yukina Ota or Jenny Kirk ... or maybe the surprise will be MK).

I said I didn't have a good vibe about Sasha and the OOOOOs, but I'm starting to feel differently. I think Robin is giving her a lot of confidence. So the question is - will Robin get to have a repeat winner?
The men is such a crapshoot - that's what makes it so interesting. Plush's leg, Johnny's quad, and Joubert's non-jumping skills (such as spins) are among the big questions marks.
And please skategods, you didn't hear the other poster's remark about Shen/Zhao's unstoppability.

...except for Michelle whom I do not think cares enough to go all out and really compete.

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What makes you say that Joe?
I've never seen her give any less than 100% in any of her competitions.

The thing is Yukina needs to make the Japanese World Team in 2005 to have a shot at the OGM in 2006. Although she is a lovely skater and her presentation is right up there, she is still having problems with cheated jumps. If she doesn't make the World Team in 2005, I don't give her much of a chance for the OGM.

Same for BeBe Liang. She needs to make the 2005 US team. To do that, she needs to recover from her injuries and make serious noise in the Grand Prix next season. She did OK this past year (a 4th and a 5th) but she needs to do much better this year, earn a medal or two and maybe make the GPF. She not only has to land all her jumps, but she has to kick her presentation up quite a bit. She still looks like a junior skater out there.

I think that COP will bring us a lot of new champions, yes ISU has said this will not be a jumping contest but what can everybody else do is Miki for instance lands her two quad (the sal and loop= plus two triple-triple combinations? even if her presentations marks are not thta high, that technical content will put her right there
Eventhough I would love to see Irina and Michelle again in that podium on 2006, I really don't see that happenning unless the two of them work extra-hard all this two remaining season and get at least a couple of two difficult 3-3. Sasha is going to try again that quad salchow if she wants to do it, but I do believe that chances to see a Japanese sweep are not that hard to believe, well maybe with Carolina right there (she has the technical content and well the home skaters always get a little held up). All this new skaters the "young ones" they only need to improve on artistry and they have a little less than two years to do that.

As for the men, hard to be neutral here, since I'm a big Plushenko fan...
Hmm I think Jhonny, Brian and Stephane might be the ones to peek right there, Jhonny needs a quad which he have but now he needs it to put on the program, Brian IMO needs to improve artistry and spins and dictch the Morozov footwork that only gives him level 1 on COP; and he is aware of that. Stephane needs consistency and as one of you said, with his studies finished he can focus on this.
Plush will have a hard time mostly because of his injuries, if he, for some wonderful oh so wonderful reason, is injury-free for Olys, he will walk away with Gold this time.
One of the thing about the men, mostly in this case about Jhonny and maybe maybe Brian is that none of them have had serious injury that sometimes comes from training too much. Plush have had it as well as Stephane, and well some skaters can deal with them, some can not, I mean Plush proove that he can skate even with a serious injury, Ilia tried too, but others had to withdrew the season for them. I expect skaters will aware of that and they will not extra work on it because to have an injury on Oly season (like Plush had) is a very bad thing to happen.

I'm not sure who will peak at the Olys.......tough call to make with two years to go. There's the "injury" or "illness" factor that has kept athletes from competing healthy. If the Oly gold is truly the "prize" in skating, then I would love to see a veteran win, not just a youngster seizing the "moment". Veterans such as Plushy, Weiss, Michelle, Sasha (she'll be a veteran by then), Irina, Shizuka, Tim.......someone who has put in the time and dedication over a long period of time and has contributed to the sport and made it better (sounds like a "Buttonism" coming on).........

And then the Chinese.......wouldn't it be something to see a podium sweep? At this moment, there are none better....42

Like someone said Brian and Weir didn't have to deal with injuries like Plushy and weren't consistent till recently. Plush knows how to win even with injuries. I don't know how consistent Johnny will be when he start landing quads in comps. Let's see how well Brian and Weir do next season before we talk about their chances in Turino.

If I was a betting person, I'd bet on Obertas and Slavnov to win gold.

euterpe said:

The thing is Yukina needs to make the Japanese World Team in 2005 to have a shot at the OGM in 2006. Although she is a lovely skater and her presentation is right up there, she is still having problems with cheated jumps. If she doesn't make the World Team in 2005, I don't give her much of a chance for the OGM.

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Yukina made the World Team this year, it was her coach who recommended she not compete.

Dee

Yukina Ota finished 5th at Japanese Nationals. The order of finish was Ando, Suguri, Arakawa, Onda, Ota. How do you figure she made the World team?

It's going to be even harder to crack the team next year, with Arakawa having won World gold, Ando in the top 4, and Suguri in the top 7.

sarahmistral said:

Stephane Lambiel...what can I say, all attempts at cool, levelheaded analysis go out the window and all I can muster is an "I HOPE he doesn't miss a jump and wins it all", but I see him on schedule and certainly capable of pulling out all the stops that he has available (though not a quad combo, which is another reason--besides the other SL's hometown heroics--he finished off the podium, IMHO)...

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"not a quad combo"? Stephane can do a quad-triple. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you

I find it strange that in all the pairs predictions, nobody's even mentioned Totmianina & Marinin as possibles. They've just won the world title. I think they've got as good a chance as anyone, although I think Shen & Zhao have the edge, if they're clean. Other pairs that could be in the mix are the Chinese teams, Obertas & Slavnov, and maybe even Petrova & Tikhonov could get a medal (they were close at Worlds this year, and very close to winning Europeans this year after they gave a great performance in the LP). It's a possibility. Langlois & Archetto could also work their way up there.

In dance - I see N&K and D&S as being the top 2 (I hope D&S can get the gold though). Bronze - who knows? Grushina & Goncharov have a good chance, as do Delobel & Schoenfelder, Faiella & Scali (+ home advantage), and maybe Dubreil & Lauzon. And Winkler & Lohse if they compete. (To whoever mentioned Belbin & Agosto - I don't think they can compete in Turino, because of Belbin's citizenship.)

Ladies - wow! ANYTHING could happen. I think Michelle will compete, but if she really wants to win, she has to do more. She has to really use her edge in the second mark and push it, especially if COP is used - she needs more choreography and transitions. She also needs more difficulty, not only in the jumps but also in the other areas. I think she can do it, and I hope she does. It would be great to see her win the OGM with a great programme and a great performance. She can't take the easy option though if she wants to win, and win decisively.
Irina is something of a wildcard - it depends on her health, really. But she's a fighter and she's proven she's still up there - even with missing the whole season and only being in proper training for a short time, and all her health issues, she still got in the top 10 at Worlds. Amazing.
Sasha has a great chance. She also needs a 3-3, but she seems to have a great advantage under COP, so a 3-3 may be all she needs if she has the kind of programme she had during the GP series. (I didn't see it, but read that her Worlds version was much more watered down.)
There are also a number of other skaters with a chance of at least medalling: Fumie Suguri, Miki Ando, Carolina Kostner (+ home advantage), Cynthia Phaneuf (never seen her but going by what I've read), Julia Sebestyen, Elena Sokolova, Viktoria Pavuk, Susanna Poykio. There's always a dark horse.

Men - I think if Plushenko can stay healthy and skate clean, he's as good as got it. Joubert is also in the mix, but needs something special to beat a clean Plushenko. Lambiel - I would LOVE him to medal, I think he's fantastic. There's also Klimkin, Dambier, Weir, Sandhu etc that could challenge for a medal, plus maybe Weiss. The men's field is so deep at the moment, like the ladies.

I personally can't wait!

Why do people keep mentioning Phaneuf and not her countrywoman Rochette, who actually finished 8th at worlds this year. And I'd be glad Ota actually gets onto the world team in 2006.

People.......as I read this thread, I'm thinking that it's way too early to get this excited about the Olympics........I don't think our hearts can take it (I don't think mine can), and we're gonna keel over before the big event!!! 42

42,
I completely agree with you. It seems that guessing on who will peak two years from now is just too far away to get worked up over. Strange things happen to all of us mere mortals. All it takes is an injury at the wrong time, or a burst of inspiration at the right time, and the last two years worth of guessing will go out the door.

apologizing to the faint-hearted...

...but some of us are off-season thrill seekers who can't get enough of speculating about Torino 2006, particularly after seeing just how many people can be a factor at this year's incredibly exciting Worlds, just how many showed they plan to come to play, and knowing one thing for sure, that whether we choose to think about the next Olympics or not, all our favorite skaters have them firmly in mind...to each his/her own, I guess

Icenut84, I guess I have to go rewatch Lambiel's LP download (what a burden...NOT ) to see if he had a 4/3 combo in there...don't know why I wouldn't recall it if he had. My mistake, probably...

My dream is Stephane & Yukina for Oly gold, though I'd also like to see Michelle deliver her absolute best in Torino, and Sasha, and the underrated Suzanna Poykio...the fact that there's no way to predict makes it all the more exciting I'm absolutely loving all this buildup; it's like a really good soap opera, positively intriguing!

It's funny how Olympic victories (or a lack thereof) either keep people in the sport or drive them out; say Michelle and Evgeni win the medals that, some would argue, have been the reason for them remaining in eligible competition, then these two extremely dominant skaters retire, "move on", and we get to see another Olympic race ensue, and more years skating from the younger contenders for gold in that year, either through a consistently dominant champion or a rivalry, until the next games...many have said it before; the loss of Olympic gold has produced some fine additional years of skating from Olympic favorites who didn't make the top spot in what was supposed to be their year. Don't mind me; I'm just remarking on what I view as an interesting trend.

Sarah

Pati said:

What makes you say that Joe?
I've never seen her give any less than 100% in any of her competitions.

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Pati - I think Michelle will skate beautifully at the Olys. No one will compare to her skating. But her technical will be low and I do not think she will risk a poor last performance. She will end her eligible career as the most beautiful skater of her era.

Joe