who's on schedule to peak at Torino?

Joe,
I remember from one of your posts you cited Martina Navratilova playing competitive doubles tennis in her 40s. I'm not so sure that a 25 year old woman (which would be MK's age in Turino) couldn't do 3-3s with the proper build up in conditioning (and motivation) to Turino.
My point earlier is that two years is a long time in anyone's life. S**t happens. I know this from my own life (and I am very grateful to be alive).

bronxgirl said:

My point earlier is that two years is a long time in anyone's life. S**t happens. I know this from my own life (and I am very grateful to be alive).

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ITA Bronxgirl; your point is not at all lost on me, but my purpose in starting this thread was to get everyone who thinks speculating about skaters at the next Olympics is a fun, frivolous pursuit well suited to the otherwise uneventful off-season (as far as we avid fs board posters are concerned ) involved in throwing out ideas, info, tidbits about the skaters who would make good contenders in Torino and why, analyzing the progress the skaters we know and love may make in new circumstances, under new coaches, etc.. An example of why such a thread, though not much more than speculation, can be informative: I absolutely adore Stephane Lambiel's skating, and yet I wasn't aware that he had been in high school until just recently, and that he'll have much more time to devote to skating from now on. The possibilities (with him as with all our favorite skaters) are endless and fun to ponder, I think; I certainly didn't intend to offend anyone and wish to keep it lighthearted, though I'm sure we're all familiar with the gravity of life situations and the fleeting nature of life itself.

Cheers,
Sarah

My earlier point, (not the "hearts can't take it" one) is that I truly hope that the Gold Medal Oly performances we see at the next Olympics will be by those who have been at their sport awhile, grown and changed the sport for the better just because they competed, and not by someone who was "at the right place at the right time". Phil Mikkelson just won his first major competition ever after a long time at playing golf....what a thrill, he played great, AND he deserved it............and not just because he played great......42

sarahmistral said:

; I certainly didn't intend to offend anyone and wish to keep it lighthearted, though I'm sure we're all familiar with the gravity of life situations and the fleeting nature of life itself.
Cheers,
Sarah

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I apologize for my sensitivity in this matter. I'm a cancer survivor, so two years to me is never a given any more.

I wish you the best...

and commend you on your courage, bronxgirl, in getting through it; my maternal aunt is a cancer survivor, and I have the utmost respect and sympathy for everyone who's been through such an ordeal.

Best,
Sarah

Joe, I disagree with you somewhat. I actually think Michelle won't stay eligible if she can't legitimately compete with the others. She will have to have more packed programs and a 3/3 to have any chance of winning, or maybe even just making the podium. I feel that is what is causing all her indecision right now ... whether her body and her mental state of mind can take two very vigorous seasons. I hope she does stay in, and I hope she is NOT the favorite going in ... that would be the best thing that could happen to her.
I'm also not convinced about Sasha's chances. Keep in mind she skated well in the GP, but that was without any 3/3 ... or even a 7th triple for that matter. Even with a very watered down Swan Lake, she still made a mistake in the LP at Worlds.
I think it's not going to be any easy task for either Michelle or Sasha to add the difficulty and still skate clean.
I hope I'm wrong though.

I feel like some of the buzz about the rising level of difficulty will pass as we get closer to the next olympics. The big talk before SLC was "will sasha do her quad?" And she didnt, I'm not sure that Miki will be willing to risk falling on a quad jump when it really counts either. The olympics is a whole other ball game from regular season international skating. The pressure is multiplied and the stakes are higher... everyone just wants to skate a clean program. And often there are so many mistakes and slip ups that the last one left standing wins... Sarah Hughes is a perfect example of a situation where all the pressumed front runners made tiny errors and a long shot had a career best performance.

I wouldnt count anyone out at this point... but I agree that it is really fun to speculate....

Maybe a better thread topic would be : "what is your dream podium configuration?"

Though I think a lot of the ladies will peak or work towards peaking the next two years, I believe that when the Olympics get here, it will a whole nother ball game. We all know that the Olympics carries an enormous amount of pressure and that in the past it has caused some of the toughest skaters to crack (MK, IS, DT etc.,), so I think it will basically come down to who can stay on their feet and can present a beautiful program. If that includes a triple/triple, then that will make whomever's win all the more secure. I honestly think it will be a miracle if the "favorite" wins. I almost expect there to be a dark horse, since that has been the case the past 3 Olympics.

For the pairs, I think S/Z will have some stiff competition from the other Chinese pair team. In two years they will have improved tremedously and I believe will be giving S/Z a run for their money. I think the Gold will come down to these two, unless another pair burst onto the scene or the Chinese have disastrous short programs.

Can't get into to ID since AP retired. So, I have no opinion on this one.

I think if Plushy stays healthy he'll be able to capture the Gold in Turino. The others will be closely nipping at his heals, but I think he'll win. The only exception I could see is if Honda or maybe Goebel (who is the only one who can compete with him, at this point, on a technical level) comes back strong with wonderful choregraphy and presentation (IMO, neither can't touch EP's presentation skills).

Very interesting analyses to all. If I am reading the topic correctly, it doesn't ask for a winner but skaters that peak.

NYMKfan - I'm not putting down Michelle with my post and it doesn't change my conclusion that she is the most beautiful skater of her era and contributed much to other skaters to work on their presentation. It's just that for MK to peak (hasn't she already?) the question will arise by the fans and judges alike, can she add to her program at least one 3x3. While I think she can certainly add the 3tx3t, will that be enough to overcome Shizuka's 3zx3tx2r?. I do not think MK is up to that. It's just a gut feeling that she will not go beyond the 3tx3t, and that will not be enough to beat Shizuka. And, again, Michelle wants to go out with a beautiful clean performance! She will not do anything which is not solid in her routine.

And Longhorn Liz - Sasha too, has already peaked. And she is indeed in the same situation that MK is in. She will no longer be a teenybopper at the Olys, and that fearless approach to the technical will not pay offf now. She too, will want a clean routine
and will be counting on her extensions for many plusses in the presentation score, but she lacks the 3x3s. The quad will be soooo risky and unless she is executing it in practice 90 percent of the time, I would suggest she avoid it. (Miki is closer to the quad but she has her problems with it too.)

And both MK and SC have already learned in the Olympics that even a 4th placer after the SP can actually win the gold. Clean skates are absolutely imperative. This feeling will make both skaters uptight.

And then there is Shizuka who will be working among some excellent figure skaters to give her the impetus to go further.s We don't know Fumie's plans to remain eligible. But there is Miki and Yukina, the former to peak at the Olys and win them on pure technical merit, and the latter to peak at the Olys and hit 3x3s together with what I believe will be the best presentation among the laldies at this time. I believe Tarassova wil get Shizuka to peak by the Olys by getting her knee turned out and toes pointed.

As for Irina, who commands world wide admiration, the question will she be up to peaking at the Olys. Perhaps we will get a glimpse of that at the Mosocow PreOlys World.

Recap: Skaters to Peak: Shizuka, Miki, and hopefully, Yukina.

Skaters requiring additional technical: Michelle and Sasha.

Joe

Joesitz said:

We don't know Fumie's plans to remain eligible.

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Why...why would she not remain eligible??? *lip trembling*
has someone heard something I haven't??? *stress*

k

I agree with joe's analysis somewhat that both MK and SC have peaked (although I think that SC is just starting to, and could continue at this pace for another season or two).

I think an interesting thing to consider is who is the leader after the short program. Twice MK has been the leader in the short, causing her to feel like she had to hold onto the lead and skate somewhat reserved in the LP. But lately MK has been doing very well at coming from behind.... maybe she handles the spirit of the under dog better than the reigning diva?

Miki would have to do a whole lot of improving for me to be able to envision her with a gold around her neck... at this point I do not find her skating enjoyable to watch. We will have to see what happens as she matures.

Lets not rule Carolina K out. She seems like a loose cannon, I can see her pulling a flawless routine out where no on was expecting it. And she will be the hometown favorite.

if sasha does her quad? correct me if I'm wrong, but sasha has never done a quad in compettion, has she? Until you actually land something, in my book you don't have it. Pure speculation. And so mant factors will go into whether she gets a quad, or Ando lands hers consistently--and whether emphasis on quads and 3-3s leads to a rash of injuries. I don't think a quad will be necessary for ogm in 2006--3-3 certainly, but even an "easier" 3t3t or 3s3t will keep a skater in contention, as so many of the skaters who land harder combos are weak in other areas. just my thoughts.

I'm going to make a prediction here - I think the puberty monster might be about to eat Carolina K. It's just a feeling I have watching her compared to last season....jump issues - but I'd have to see the tapes again. Could just be nerves.

k

The puberty monster has been chomping away at Carolina all this season. She had a better season in 2002-2003 than she did this year. Last year she was winning everything in sight until Junior Worlds 2003, when she won the QR and SP, then bombed in the FS to finish 3rd overall. Then at Worlds 2003, she had so-so QR, a terrific SP and wound up in the final group for the FS, but disintegrated in the FS and finished 10th.

This season she's been wildly inconsistent, finishing 9th of 12 at Skate America, then after a 6th in the SP at Cup of Russia, won the FS and a silver medal. She lost her Italian championship when she failed to land even one triple in the FS after a brilliant SP. She finished 5th in SP, FS and overall at Euros (she was 4th last year) and she finished 5th at 2004 Worlds, after some controversial judging that placed her 6th in the FS despite two horrific falls and completing only 4 triple jumps.

Here's my pick: Mao Asada. She'll be 16 in 2006, the perfect age for the Olympic Gold Medal according to recent history. She will bring a reliable triple Axel along with two difficult triple/triple combinations, which she already has, I think.

Her presentation is great right now for a fourteen year old, and by 2006 she'll be a combination Miki Ando (technical) and Yukina Ota (presentation).

You read it here first, LOL.

Mathman

Mao Asada? It depends when she turns 16, doesn't it? There hasn't been a single Ladies Olympic champ in the last 50 years that wasn't on the podium at Worlds prior to winning the Olympics. That means Mao Asada would have to make the Japanese team this coming season and be on the 2005 World podium. She hasn't even competed in the Junior Grand Prix yet!

After checking, I found that Mao turned 13 in September, 2003. Sorry, Mathman, she is too young for 2006.

Re: apologizing to the faint-hearted...

sarahmistral said:

It's funny how Olympic victories (or a lack thereof) either keep people in the sport or drive them out; say Michelle and Evgeni win the medals that, some would argue, have been the reason for them remaining in eligible competition,

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Plushenko was only 19 in Salt Lake, only won one world title. I don't think him not winning the OGM was the reason for him remaining in competition. He was still very young and still improving. As for Michelle, I don't know what would have happened if she had won the OGM, but she's said before that she loves to compete and she still wants to do it. There's a good chance she would still have wanted to carry on even if she'd won.

As far as quads are concerned, I don't think any lady has a reliable quad. Ando tries them at nearly every competition and has landed maybe one or two that have been certified; her success rate is not high. Cohen unsuccessfully tried a quad at Skate America in 2001 and has never tried to land one in competition since. So I think it could be said Ando CAN land a quad in competition but hasn't often done it successfully, and Cohen has no competition quad.

Moreover, trying tricks like 3A and 4T and not being able to land them can be disruptive to a program. It's usually a pretty hard fall, and it can knock the wind out of a skater.

shine said:

Why do people keep mentioning Phaneuf and not her countrywoman Rochette, who actually finished 8th at worlds this year. And I'd be glad Ota actually gets onto the world team in 2006.

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Beats me, Shine - Both Phaneuf and Rochette are right up there with the best of them. And we are talking about PEAKING not winning. winning is another topic and no one is ready to do that except to choose their favorite for reasons we all know.

Joe

"To peak or not to peak, that is the question!" A skater can peak seasonally and if he or she has peaked career wise, how is one to tell the difference? Do we see a marked decrease in their ability to perform, grow artistically or tech-wise, and win medals? Name a skater presently skating that fits this bill? 42