Who will push the technical edge in Ladies FS?

Meoima · Jul 9, 2014

Sandpiper said:
Who will push the technical side? Adelina, Liza, Elena, and Anna. But who will get triple axels/quads? Likely nobody (and whoever gets it won't be rewarded enough).

If someone gets it:
Liza: She used to be able to land 3A, and I think she can get it back if she remains injury-free. At her full potential, 4T isn't impossible either. I wouldn't recommend this next season though--I want her to skate cleanly and rebuild some rep with the judges. After that, we can talk about 3A and 4T. She is the best natural jumper left (and, when on, tends to have less wonky landings than other natural jumpers like Slutskaya and Harding).

Adelina: Her 3T is huge, and her 2A is solid. The problem I foresee is that she doesn't rotate fast enough to get quads or 3As ratified (Liza's in-air rotation is her biggest advantage). However, maybe the fact that she already has the ultimate prize will inspire her to try high-risk things.

I don't see Yulia getting quads or 3As (2A-4T is insane and impossible. I doubt anyone right now, man or woman, keep the flow from a 2A to do a 4t afterwards. In competition, at least). I could see her getting more/different 3-3s if she wants them, and if they're useful under COP. I can see Radionova doing 3-3-3, but it's not well-rewarded enough to be worth it. Gracie... I'm with Sam, I think she's maxed out her tech and is actually going backwards. Polina is a question mark.

Totally agree. In term of jumping ability only, Liza has the biggest chance for 3A and 4T if she can pull herself together. The biggest problem is can she? I hope she will skate clean next season, not try for difficult jumps that fast.

I expect Adelina to be the first lady to pull a 4T or 3A, due to her confidence boost after Sochi. But I can't tell for sure about her consistency.

I don't think Yulia should go for a 2A-4T, it's not rewarded enough in my opinion. She rotate fast but not a natural jumper objectively.

Globetrotter · Jul 9, 2014

Nice to see the various opinions. The reason I focused on the technical and jumps was because in the main, these are the most exciting elements to watch. Look how far advanced the men are going. Nobody is harping on them for transitions, pcs, artistry, max spins and footwork. It is the jumps that separate the champs from the plebeians. Perhaps it is realistically more difficult for the ladies. But I think pcs and artistry is something most skaters improve on as they mature. Once you have a bunch of ladies consistently landing quads or 3A, then wham. Everyone will be pressured to do them to keep up if the CoP system of scoring stays.

Yup, I do think Sot and Tuk are the best bets on the tough jumps. Pogo is strong but the axel is her weakest link and she does not rotate so fast like J Lip. Gracie? Forget it, she's maxed out. Polina Edmunds? Distant possibility but her very coltish long limbed body somehow may be a disadvantage. She reminds me a lot of Caro Kostner in her very young days, she will improve but I Dun think she will have the tremendous powers of an Ito or Harding.

Who knows, one of the Japanese girls may aim for the 3A since Asada has made it her signature or maybe a quad as blessed by Hanyu. Or the Russians will want to hit that for pride reasons. The real challenge is not the ability to land in practice sessions but to actually hit the thing in a competition where the nerves and stakes are much higher.

BusyMom · Jul 9, 2014

Globetrotter said:
Who knows, one of the Japanese girls may aim for the 3A since Asada has made it her signature or maybe a quad as blessed by Hanyu. Or the Russians will want to hit that for pride reasons. The real challenge is not the ability to land in practice sessions but to actually hit the thing in a competition where the nerves and stakes are much higher.

Yes landing those jumps wouldn't be the easy tasks. People are worry about UR or falling for 3A obviously. Since most skaters pop their jumps all the time even their 2A, UR on 3A doesn't sound like a bad thing to me. Human tends to evolve from time to time in every aspects so it is kind of sad if there will be no more 3A in women skaters after Asada era. I for one have lots and lots of faith in those skaters who practice 3A or quad jumps right now. They might not be able to perform this season but who cares. The idea of more people doing them is excited enough. :popcorn:

gkelly · Jul 9, 2014

Globetrotter said:
The reason I focused on the technical and jumps was because in the main, these are the most exciting elements to watch. Look how far advanced the men are going. Nobody is harping on them for transitions, pcs, artistry, max spins and footwork.

Oh, there are plenty of fans who complain that the focus on quads has made programs less interesting to them . . . as well as jump-focused fans who complain when skaters with the hardest/best/most (successful) jumps end up losing to skaters with better PCS, spins, and footwork -- because many judges do harp on those areas.

Can't please all the people all the time.

To some extent the freestyle singles rules allow for a variety of strategies to maximize points, as discussed in another thread.

Solo dance would be of interest to skaters who want to focus on blade-to-ice skating to music more than on jumping and other tricks and who for one reason or another cannot do so with a partner. The main reason is the the gender imbalance between the number of male vs. female skaters available.

It would also be of more interest to those fans -- who may be in a minority -- who are more interested in the blade-to-ice skating to music than they are in jumps.

But it has to appeal to skaters first, and get talent skaters to commit to training for the requirements of the discipline. Until there are elite-level competitors performing elite-level solo dances, it will offer nothing of interest to the average fan.

Sandpiper · Jul 9, 2014

I'd love it if girls could pull off 3A and 4T (and remain relatively injury-free), but to be honest I don't think it'll become a mainstay until we get significantly different skates. The women's field still hasn't progressed beyond Midori Ito, who was a phenomenon which comes around only once every 50 years. If we can get Midori Ito paired with today's training methods, we can get quads, 3-3-3s, whatever you want going, no problem. However, a part of me fears that we'll never get another Midori Ito.

I like how the women are now doing 3-3s with some consistency, but going to quads and triple axels is another matter. Very few women are capable of doing them--under 6.0, where doing this would be highly rewarded, few women had the ability to do so. Under COP, sometimes it's not even worth it, compared to someone else who doesn't do the 3A/4S but gets more GOE for their jumps.

drivingmissdaisy · Jul 10, 2014

Sandpiper said:
I'd love it if girls could pull off 3A and 4T (and remain relatively injury-free), but to be honest I don't think it'll become a mainstay until we get significantly different skates. The women's field still hasn't progressed beyond Midori Ito, who was a phenomenon which comes around only once every 50 years. If we can get Midori Ito paired with today's training methods, we can get quads, 3-3-3s, whatever you want going, no problem. However, a part of me fears that we'll never get another Midori Ito.

It's amazing to think that, with all the technical achievements Midori accomplished, when she won her world title she did so having to skate compulsory figures reasonably well. She is a rare talent, but someone like Mao proves you don't have to have the same explosiveness as Midori to do the 3A. I think the next woman to do the 3A will likely be someone we don't expect to do it. For someone like Adelina, I don't see her even trying it because it is too risky of an element when she already struggles to skate cleans LPs.

Macassar88 · Jul 10, 2014

Honestly I don't think that Gracie will have a 3A or 4T. I think that she could definitely do them, but I don't trust Frank to have her train them. I feel like he's going to spend all his time turning her into a pretty princess and trying to improve her PCS. He already made her jumps smaller to make her more consistent last season.

anyanka · Jul 10, 2014

NMURA said:
As I checked, there are some 3A<< attempts from (non-Mao) Japanese ladies at local competitions.

Sakura Yamada 2014 All-Osaka 3rd
http://www.jsfresults.com/local/2013-2014/fs/27/02/data0205.pdf

Miu Suzaki 2013 Chubu Japan 7th
http://www.jsfresults.com/local/2012-2013/fs/22/03/data1105.pdf

Yukiko Fujisawa attempted about four times in the 2010-2011 season
http://www.jsfresults.com/local/2010-2011/fs/40/02_ijs/data0205.pdf

Miyabi Oba 2013 Japanese Nationals 13th in the FS (10th overall)
http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2013-2014/fs_e/nationals/data0205.pdf

Oba actually landed a 3A (with a litte turnout) in the warmup. There was a video on Youtube but it was removed.

Woah! Great to see the ladies push themselves. Clearly, Mao (and Midori to a lesser extent but only because the players are now so young) is setting them up to aspire and to excel. Thanks for sharing NMURA.

nipman · Jul 10, 2014

I really don't think that Liza could get back her jumping ability. Among the Russian girls, Adelina and Yulia have my vote. I also believe that Ashley Cain could make a breakthrough this year, technically saying (well, I need to watch some videos of her 3-loop ending combos to be more sure, but definitely she's trying something). And I'm holding my breath for the comeback of Polina Shelepen. She could be a surprise if she finally got rid of injuries and stays motivated.

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

Gracie doesn't even have a good double axel, how on earth would she do a triple axel. A quad toe maybe. Come to think of it not many current skaters have an excellent double axel so I don't think we will see many, or any triple axels. Sotnikova has an ok double axel, but nothing special. Lipnitskaya has an awful double axel. Radianova doesn't have a great one. Anna P would probably be the most likely to master a triple axel if someone does.

bronwynsings · Jul 10, 2014

According to twitter, Mirai has been doing 3As in practice recently, so it's a possibility for her to compete it in the quad. She has a very nice 2A, so that would hypothetically make sense for her to try a 3A.

Sandpiper · Jul 10, 2014

Mao certainly proves that you don't need to be a powerhouse to have a 3A. The problem is, despite the triple axel, Mao didn't dominate the skating world over her closest rival and go through her entire career as a frontrunner (was actually written off for a few years). She's even gotten a lot of criticism for "relying too much on 3A." While we can say that Mao's problems have reasons unrelated to the triple axel (needing to rework her technique due to downgrades in COP, tragedies in her personal life, the pressure she was under leading to inconsistency, being born in the same era as the great Yuna Kim), I wonder if other girls might decide triple axel isn't for them since it's not a magical solution to winning all championships.

Liza hasn't lost her jumping ability. She still gets incredible height on her jumps and quick, efficient rotation. I think her inconsistency problems are more mental than physical. Admittedly, we don't know what shape she'll show up in next season considering her injury. But I can see her getting 3A/4T more than I can see Yulia doing the same. Yulia is an excellent skater in many respects, but I'm not seeing her as potential technical innovator (maybe 3-3-3 if COP starts rewarding combos properly). More likely, neither of them gets 3A/4T, but the 3A is kept alive by Mao's return.

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

Mao won 3 world titles, and had it not been for the stupid age rule (which if it was like it was now Mao would have been in Turin anyway) would probably be an OGM and OSM winner today. That is despite the fluke that was her short program in Sochi probably keeping her from a 3rd Olympic medal, and possibly a 2nd (assuming she already won in Turin) gold. She won 4 grand prix final titles. I would say she is pretty dominant as a skater. I think both her and Kim could be termed as dominant skaters.

creaturelover · Jul 10, 2014

Agree with pangtongfan, Mao has been a pretty dominant force in skating for years.

Sandpiper · Jul 10, 2014

She was a dominant force (I simply said she didn't dominate her closest rival, Yuna

), but she could be seriously challenged by skaters who didn't have her trademark triple axel (Yuna and later Carolina). My point is, because of this, I'm not sure if she'll inspire other girls to do the triple axel. Or, even if those girls want the triple axel, I dunno if they're going to get it. I hope I'm wrong, of course.

Globetrotter · Jul 10, 2014

And I nearly forgot. There are also very few ladies to tack a 3R after a triple jump. I know Sot did attempt the 3Lz3R but never really got it ratified. Asada is the current lady who not just went for 3A but also bravely went 3F3R. Just hope there will be another brave girl who dares go for that sort of combo. The SP if done well, imagine 3F3R + 3Lz + 3A. Assuming all stacked in first half, the BV will be a whooping 25.1 if all landed. That will be a tough one to beat assuming the skater didn't splat on all the other elements and with decent presentation.

Isabel_O'Reilly · Jul 10, 2014

Meoima said:
Totally agree. In term of jumping ability only, Liza has the biggest chance for 3A and 4T if she can pull herself together. The biggest problem is can she? I hope she will skate clean next season, not try for difficult jumps that fast.

I expect Adelina to be the first lady to pull a 4T or 3A, due to her confidence boost after Sochi. But I can't tell for sure about her consistency.

I don't think Yulia should go for a 2A-4T, it's not rewarded enough in my opinion. She rotate fast but not a natural jumper objectively.

I'm just curious how much is a high enough reward?

A 2A-3T is 7.4 BV while a 2A-4T is 13.6, adding 6.2 points. I don't know if she(or anyone else among the ladies) could ever land it but it definitely seems worth it. Yulia already has the highest base value(that I've seen) other than Mao of course, and 6 points could make her close to unbeatable. Of course this is just a hypothetical scenario that probably won't happen, but it's fun to imagine. :yes:

creaturelover · Jul 10, 2014

Just for clarification, what is a 3R?

Krunchii · Jul 10, 2014

creaturelover said:
Just for clarification, what is a 3R?

Loop jump, it's also written as 3Lo

NMURA · Jul 10, 2014

Mao is a really "unique" skater whose persistence on the particular jump often overwhelmed the usual priority in competitions (winning titles and medals). Her motto was always "do my best performance and win". There is no best performance without the 3A in her book. Mao hasn't avoided the 3A in competitions since 2004, except for 2007 skate Canada and several GP events in 2011-2012. Any difficult jumps require consistent trials to master even in disregard of certain risks (not winning titles and medals). I don't think any Russian ladies can afford that. Mao has been practically guaranteed her #1 place in the national team so she didn't need to worry about it. No other ladies followed Mao in the 3A attempt because they didn't share her idealism and obsession.

Maybe Higuchi and Marin Honda are in the better position than Russian rivals to push the technical edge, because they are practically guaranteed of their international spots for a while. And they know that something more than the 3Lz-3T and international medals are necessary to become a star in Japan.

Who will push the technical edge in Ladies FS?

Meoima

Match Penalty

Globetrotter

BusyMom

gkelly

Sandpiper

drivingmissdaisy

Macassar88

anyanka

nipman

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

bronwynsings

Sandpiper

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

creaturelover

Sandpiper

Globetrotter

Isabel_O'Reilly

creaturelover

Krunchii

NMURA

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