Who will rise to podium in pairs and ice dance?

skateluvr · Jul 10, 2014

I must admit I do not follow these two disciplines deeply because all the fabulous ice dancers of the last quad were really amazing just to watch the top 5 or 6 vying for that bronze medal. I am floored after reading weeks of breakups. I truly am stunned the most at the amazing Canadian Champion pairs. I lioved this team and they did well, though underscored repeatedly in my book. Still Some of the uncouplings and reciuplings are crazy. I don't understand why Shnapir and Castelli broke up and why she is with Tran. They were a powerful team.

So who can we expect to rise to the GP podium and Worlds even though it is long ways off. I am a big Shibutani fan. Is there a spot for them with the top Sochi podium gone or uncoupled?

And has anyone seen Aliona and her new guy skate in practice or a show? Is this crazy or a possibility? Who are the predicted pairs to rise to the top? I really don't understand a few of these splits. The Russian Team that won bronze in ice dance was a true joy. I loved their Black Swan program and how well they fit together. This must have been the craziest year for splits ever. Or is it always like this post Olympics since CoP started? No?

Alba · Jul 10, 2014

I don't know about Aliona but I suppose they would be very good. I think V&T and S&K will be on the top as well.
Ice Dance, I think W&P and hope for Elena and Ruslan as well but it's too early to tell about them. That's just my wish.

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

V&T should dominate the next couple years. Then after that it depends if they even want to continue, how much a team like S&K has continued to improve, how far the Chinese pairs have come, and who new has emerged, but mostly their own plans and motivation. S&K should be regular podium finishers, and beyond that the Chinese, other Russians, and maybe Duhamel & Radford are the main podium contenders for now.

In ice dance W&P, B&S, C&L are the main contenders for this coming season, with Chock & Bates and the new 2 Russian teams as the other possible contenders.

surimi · Jul 10, 2014

My bet is on Russian domination in Pairs (V/T, S/K, K/S could also return strong, and B/D sound promising), with Savchenko/Massot, Duhamel/Radford and perhaps Moore-Towers/Marinaro (if they can compete this season?) having a say in medals. I don't know if either of the Chinese pairs is capable of skating a program without major mistakes, and of reaching the podium at this point.
Ice Dance looks thrilling at the moment, though I'm going to miss D/W and V/M. W/P, C/L, and B/S are my obvious guesses at medal placing, but the other Canadian teams and Chock/Bates keep improving, and the two new Russian teams could surprise everyone; those would be my bets.

breathesgelatin · Jul 10, 2014

I would like to imagine that Papadakis/Cizeron have a chance to be contenders in Ice Dance but I don't know if it's true.

Aliona and Bruno skated in All That Skate back in May. There are some videos on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mx4UtyAFAA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Xve43iuhJE

Snow63 · Jul 10, 2014

Pairs: easily V/T and S/K. I think K/S, D/R and chinese will be fighting for top 3.
Ice Dance: C/L, W/P and hopefully B/S will be top 3. C/B are really have a chance to be #1 US pair, so I think C/B have a shot too, but one of the top pairs should make mistakes to make room for them. S/K and I/Z will be fighting for top 5 I think.

Totentanz · Jul 10, 2014

Assuming V/T compete at 2015 Worlds, the podium will likely be V/T, S/K and one of these:
*The third Russian pair (probably K/S, but there is a chance that B/D, D/E or A/M may beat them)
*Duhamel/Radford
*Chinese top pair (C/P or S/H)

anyanka · Jul 10, 2014

Pairs:

It'll be Russia all the way. V/T will dominate next season but they may retire if they decide that they've run out of motivation following their major triumph on home ice. S/K should pick up the torch, and they've got plenty of up-and-coming ones from the junior ranks. K/S might do well for a year or two if they can return to form. I would have counted them out on their ages (33/36 by 2018) but Shen & Zhao won gold at ages 31 and 37 respectively, so I wouldn't count them out entirely ... yet. (This is a big maybe.)

The Canadians will be led by D/R but MTM v2.0 should be one to watch as well. They may not get to the very top but they will be in the mix, top 5-6 and sometimes medaling at worlds.

The Chinese are in rebuilding mode now that P/T have retired, and we need to see if S/H or P/Z can keep up momentum (placing 5th and 6th at worlds this year isn't too shabby). I expect world junior pairs champs Y/J to step up, they're the most exciting of the junior pairs teams at the moment.

Aljona and Bruno should do well assuming that they have their funding in place. Asides from them, the pair I'd like to see come out of nowhere and rise to the top would be Valentina and Ondrej: THAT would be something to see!

anyanka · Jul 10, 2014

Dance may look like 2006-10, since the two dominant teams in the world (D/W and V/M) are unlikely to return (Charlie's getting married, Tessa wants to go to law school, I think all four want to finish their college degrees), and the "next in line" I/K spontaneously combusted.

Looking back to the 06-10 quad, with the retirement of the top teams we saw two otherwise underrated pairs claim back-to-back 1-2 places at worlds (the Bulgarians and Canadians) and I can see a parallel with C/L and W/P in that regard. The torch was supposed to have been passed at that time to Tanith & Ben, but although they placed well and skated well, they never got to be world champions (parallels B/S, although they still have the whole quad ahead of them?). Another unheralded team could take the world crown halfway through the quad (e.g. Delobel / Schoenfelder) one or two more teams could be in there too in a less crowded field (remember Khoklova & Novitski, who went from world bronze to Euro champs to 9th at Olympics in just three years?), but the Olympic year could be dominated by a couple of former junior wonders. D/W were rising and V/M were already winning medals by that point, but they really stepped it up for 2009/10 and beat all the veterans (and what a list: D/S, B/A, the Kerrs, K/N, F/S).

They say the next big thing is here / that the revolution's near / but to me it's quite clear / that it's all just a little bit of history repeating ... - Shirley Bassey

mousepotato · Jul 10, 2014

Totentanz said:
The third Russian pair (probably K/S, but there is a chance that B/D, D/E or A/M may beat them)

V/T will will everything unless S/K can overtake them, not sure how S/K will look with Morozov's choreography. I think their spark will disappear.
No way will B/D beat K/S, B/L only barely beat them twice in 6 seasons, why would it change with a new partnership. Vera is much better off, but it will take them a while to be really good. She has much to work on. Same goes with D/E, he's certainly not the best Russian man, I don't see them lasting at all. A/M has a chance if they can nail the big point elements, but they still have no style and K/S need to get back in competition mode, but I'm sure they are ready. Russia's top three will be K/S, S/K and V/T. Hopefully all can stay injury free.

The two Chinese pairs S/H and P/Z will only be getting better unless S/H break up due to her growth.

D/R need much better choreography, but they will for sure be in the top 5.

S/M can't even compete yet and I doubt France will let him go so they will probably have to sit out 2 years. Lubov and Dylan are in the same boat.

Kirsten and Michael will be the most interesting, I hope they do really well off the bat, but I still don't like the coaches.

DianaSelene · Jul 10, 2014

mousepotato said:
V/T will will everything unless S/K can overtake them, not sure how S/K will look with Morozov's choreography. I think their spark will disappear.
No way will B/D beat K/S, B/L only barely beat them twice in 6 seasons, why would it change with a new partnership. Vera is much better off, but it will take them a while to be really good. She has much to work on. Same goes with D/E, he's certainly not the best Russian man, I don't see them lasting at all. A/M has a chance if they can nail the big point elements, but they still have no style and K/S need to get back in competition mode, but I'm sure they are ready. Russia's top three will be K/S, S/K and V/T. Hopefully all can stay injury free.

The two Chinese pairs S/H and P/Z will only be getting better unless S/H break up due to her growth.

D/R need much better choreography, but they will for sure be in the top 5.

S/M can't even compete yet and I doubt France will let him go so they will probably have to sit out 2 years. Lubov and Dylan are in the same boat.

Kirsten and Michael will be the most interesting, I hope they do really well off the bat, but I still don't like the coaches.

Actually, I am sure that S/K will do fine with Morozov's choreo. How do I know? Because their really good short program this year to Surrender was choreographed by Morozov. Also, V/T's Masquerade waltz that became one of their best programs was also done by Morozov. Not all of his choreography is necessarily bad, although a bunch of his programs were failures.

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

surimi said:
My bet is on Russian domination in Pairs (V/T, S/K, K/S could also return strong, and B/D sound promising), with Savchenko/Massot, Duhamel/Radford and perhaps Moore-Towers/Marinaro (if they can compete this season?) having a say in medals. I don't know if either of the Chinese pairs is capable of skating a program without major mistakes, and of reaching the podium at this point.
Ice Dance looks thrilling at the moment, though I'm going to miss D/W and V/M. W/P, C/L, and B/S are my obvious guesses at medal placing, but the other Canadian teams and Chock/Bates keep improving, and the two new Russian teams could surprise everyone; those would be my bets.

Savchenko & Massot wont even start competing for another 15 months atleast right? So if we are talking about "at this point" there is no point even mentioning them. I highly doubt Moore-Towers & Marinaro will be medal contenders anytime soon, although you never know with these new pairs. Still I don't think he is anywhere near as strong a pairs skater as Dylan was, and even she and Dylan could only come top 5 with others making mistakes (which happened often, and they were consistent so often placed that high, but they never really got close to medaling despite coming 4th a couple times).

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

anyanka said:
Dance may look like 2006-10, since the two dominant teams in the world (D/W and V/M) are unlikely to return (Charlie's getting married, Tessa wants to go to law school, I think all four want to finish their college degrees), and the "next in line" I/K spontaneously combusted.

Looking back to the 06-10 quad, with the retirement of the top teams we saw two otherwise underrated pairs claim back-to-back 1-2 places at worlds (the Bulgarians and Canadians) and I can see a parallel with C/L and W/P in that regard. The torch was supposed to have been passed at that time to Tanith & Ben, but although they placed well and skated well, they never got to be world champions (parallels B/S, although they still have the whole quad ahead of them?). Another unheralded team could take the world crown halfway through the quad (e.g. Delobel / Schoenfelder) one or two more teams could be in there too in a less crowded field (remember Khoklova & Novitski, who went from world bronze to Euro champs to 9th at Olympics in just three years?), but the Olympic year could be dominated by a couple of former junior wonders. D/W were rising and V/M were already winning medals by that point, but they really stepped it up for 2009/10 and beat all the veterans (and what a list: D/S, B/A, the Kerrs, K/N, F/S).

They say the next big thing is here / that the revolution's near / but to me it's quite clear / that it's all just a little bit of history repeating ... - Shirley Bassey

Yeah I could see something like the 06-2010 quad happening again in ice dance too. Not sure if it will, but it certainly sounds feasible.

Skater Boy · Jul 10, 2014

Totentanz said:
Assuming V/T compete at 2015 Worlds, the podium will likely be V/T, S/K and one of these:
*The third Russian pair (probably K/S, but there is a chance that B/D, D/E or A/M may beat them)
*Duhamel/Radford
*Chinese top pair (C/P or S/H)

I agree generally that the Russians, Chinese and Duhamel and Radford will be fighitng for the medal. I think Aliona and Massot may have a chance in the future - not sure they are eligible for world's. Still something seems a bit off about her break up with her former partner - like it wasn't on the greatest of terms.

Sequinedream · Jul 10, 2014

In the US, I'd like to see Hubbell/Donohue jump spots over the Shibs and C/B. I have always found them better than C/B and slightly better than the Shibs.

Sandpiper · Jul 10, 2014

V/T will keep winning everything as long as they remain injury-free and motivated. I don't see S/K as being huge threats even though they beat S/S in Sochi (due to S/S's own mistakes). Chinese pairs could challenge with their high-flying quad elements, but it's a big "if" in terms of how successful they are at those. Savchenko/Massot looked promising in the videos, but they need to sort out their finances/representation problems.

Ice dance will probably be W/P and B/S for a season (I don't think C/L are going to win Worlds again...). But I can see B/S being overtaken by the new Russian teams in a year or two.

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

Sandpiper said:
V/T will keep winning everything as long as they remain injury-free and motivated. I don't see S/K as being huge threats even though they beat S/S in Sochi (due to S/S's own mistakes). Chinese pairs could challenge with their high-flying quad elements, but it's a big "if" in terms of how successful they are at those. Savchenko/Massot looked promising in the videos, but they need to sort out their finances/representation problems.

Ice dance will probably be W/P and B/S for a season (I don't think C/L are going to win Worlds again...). But I can see B/S being overtaken by the new Russian teams in a year or two.

Pretty much agree with all that. If I had to guess now I would say the world dance podium might end up something like W&P gold, B&S silver, C&L bronze (although could see B&S as gold or lower than silver, and could see C&L as high as silver), but after this year B&S will probably slide down as they lose Russian #1 status, and C&L will probably bind it hard medaling past 2016 at the latest should they stay in. W&P are the only one of those three I see as probable contenders for 2018.

anyanka · Jul 10, 2014

This is out there but ... Tobias & Tkachenko for Israel. He was formerly half of a Russian #3 team, got to worlds and Euros and performed decently. She's better than her last partner and given her determination to get citizenship just for the 2014 Olympics (the language test and all the bureaucracy!), with the right partner maybe it could work. As I said: it's out there ... but not impossible?

pangtongfan · Jul 10, 2014

They are representing Isreal. A tiny federation with no power in the sport. I know one might reference Chait & Shaknovsky being so overscored in the early 2000s, but that was her mobster dad, and nothing to do with the federation IMO. The Russian fed. also wont want one of their former own doing particularly well, and as we saw in Sochi the Russian fed power is as vast and deep as ever (even if not as strong off home turf).

flutzy13 · Jul 11, 2014

I'm amazed that people think K/S are going to be a factor again. Between their age, history of freak mistakes and injuries and coming back from a major injury, I think they'll be lucky to get through the season in one piece let alone contend.

Who will rise to podium in pairs and ice dance?

skateluvr

Alba

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

surimi

Congrats to Sota, #10 in World Standings!

breathesgelatin

Snow63

Pray one day we'll open our eyes.

Totentanz

Ursula Gumennik

anyanka

anyanka

mousepotato

DianaSelene

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Skater Boy

Sequinedream

Match Penalty

Sandpiper

pangtongfan

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anyanka

pangtongfan

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flutzy13

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