Mirai Nagasu's future prospects

noskates · Nov 17, 2014

I thought - and this will not be a popular post in this thread - that something Johnny said in his commentary just kind of summed up Mirai for me......"the look on her face is somewhere between bored and angry!" It would not hurt her to smile or show some emotion during her program. I watched NBC's coverage yesterday and Mirai just always looks to me like she's phoning it in. She still has the speed but everything else is just okay. She's well known for URs and I'm sure the judges look at her more closely because of it. I will say she had one of the most beautiful dresses I've seen this year. Absolutely gorgeous and so appropriate for her music. But unless something drastic changes I really don't think she'll be on the Nats podium. Sorry.

JayW · Nov 17, 2014

Here comes a general question:
What it takes to correct URs?! It seems most URers can't completely get rid of URs no matter what they do, Mao, Ashley, Mirai... just name a few.

It is so frustrating, Mao, Ashley and Mirai are such beautiful skaters.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 17, 2014

JayW said:
Here comes a general question:
What it takes to correct URs?! It seems most URers can't completely get rid of URs no matter what they do, Mao, Ashley, Mirai... just name a few.

It is so frustrating, Mao, Ashley and Mirai are such beautiful skaters.

I don't consider Ashley a chronic UR. She has have several events in the last few years with no <.

With Mirai, I think it's just that, mentally, she may be trying to land the jumps without falling and by being overly cautious she opens up a bit too early. I don't think it is a technique or a stamina problem because she can rotate all the different jumps and also can rotate jumps late in her program. Even if it is a mental block, that can be just as hard (or harder) to fix than a technical issue.

jenaj · Nov 17, 2014

Mirai's program looked nearly clean (as did her program at Skate America), but then the scores come out and she's marked below Alaine C.'s two-footed program and Anna P., with her hand down on several jumps. Both of those programs looked really messy. And she was robbed on PCS at COR, at least. Why are under-rotations penalized so much more than a rotated jump with a step-out, hand-down, two-foot or even a fall? I think if a skater can't hold onto a jump it should get only 70% credit (at most) with a mandatory -2 (at least) GOE. The system is so inconsistent--alternatively nit-picky on things that can't be seen with the naked eye and lenient with things that can be -- that it just kills enjoyment for most spectators. And only a very few skaters can live up to the demands of the IJS on a consistent basis--right now, there are none.

chuckm · Nov 17, 2014

jenaj said:
Mirai's program looked nearly clean (as did her program at Skate America), but then the scores come out and she's marked below Alaine C.'s two-footed program and Anna P., with her hand down on several jumps. Both of those programs looked really messy. And she was robbed on PCS at COR, at least. Why are under-rotations penalized so much more than a rotated jump with a step-out, hand-down, two-foot or even a fall? I think if a skater can't hold onto a jump it should get only 70% credit (at most) with a mandatory -2 (at least) GOE. The system is so inconsistent--alternatively nit-picky on things that can't be seen with the naked eye and lenient with things that can be -- that it just kills enjoyment for most spectators. And only a very few skaters can live up to the demands of the IJS on a consistent basis--right now, there are none.

The difference between a jump that is UR and a jump that is rotated but sloppy is that the UR jump starts out with a lower value than a fully rotated jump, but also that by definition it cannot get positive GOE. The judges can take off GOE points for sloppy execution, but they aren't allowed to add GOE points for a UR jump, no matter how good it looks to the casual viewer.

There are few skaters who can get through a FS without URing at least one jump, but most of the top elite skaters fully rotate most of their jumps. If a skater URs one jump, it won't have that much impact on the final score, but Mirai URd 3 jumps, two in combination, and got a downgrade on a fourth. That meant the values of those jumps were all reduced to begin with, and then got negative GOE as well.

By my calculations, if Mirai had rotated all those jumps and received + GOE for them, her TES would have been 66.11 instead of 52.60, and her PCS score would have gone up considerably as well. She would likely have won the competition handily.

The problem is her basic jumping technique is what causes the URs, and at her age it will be almost impossible to correct.

The crowd at CoR reacted well to skaters who fully played up their performances, like Jason Brown and Misha Ge, and of course to their own skaters. Mirai's deadpan performance was well received at Skate America, but the CoR crowd expected a more emotional Madame Butterfly and they were unmoved; the judges had to have felt that, hence the lower PCS scores.

AngelENTL · Nov 18, 2014

jenaj said:
Mirai's program looked nearly clean (as did her program at Skate America), but then the scores come out and she's marked below Alaine C.'s two-footed program and Anna P., with her hand down on several jumps. Both of those programs looked really messy. And she was robbed on PCS at COR, at least. Why are under-rotations penalized so much more than a rotated jump with a step-out, hand-down, two-foot or even a fall? I think if a skater can't hold onto a jump it should get only 70% credit (at most) with a mandatory -2 (at least) GOE. The system is so inconsistent--alternatively nit-picky on things that can't be seen with the naked eye and lenient with things that can be -- that it just kills enjoyment for most spectators. And only a very few skaters can live up to the demands of the IJS on a consistent basis--right now, there are none.

Totally agree. It doesn't make sense to be so strict on deducting for URs and then leave more glaring errors so open-ended.

karne · Nov 18, 2014

But whether Mirai's fans like it or not, a UR is a MAJOR error. Only on rare occasions is it anything other than a major flaw in technique. Falls can be freakish - I remember one of Artur's last year, clear as day, where he had landed the jump, but as he swung his free leg back to get into the landing position, the heel of his blade caught the ice - but URs are, nine times out of ten, a technical flaw.

While I do agree there needs to be a greater punishment for falling, I think the current penalties for URing are perfectly fine. If Mirai wants to not get penalised, then she should rotate her jumps. She should know this. I hope she is not listening to anyone who might tell her that it's all the evil judges' fault!

Matilda · Nov 18, 2014

rvi5 said:
Judges may be more likely to watch for under-rotations if they know you have a reputation for it.

During his CoR commentary, Kurt Browning mentioned Mirai has a tendency to land her jumps on the toe-pick before dropping to an edge. Kurt was discussing that under-rotations are counted from the moment your blade hits the ice, not the edge. This comment had me wondering...if a skater initially lands on the toe-pick, wouldn't there be a less pronounced J-shape pattern because part of the on ice rotation would be done on a single spot ie. a momentary twisting motion before dropping to the carving edge? If so, would it be harder for the tech specialist to recognize the under-rotation? With the implementation of slo-mo cameras, the tech specialists can now examine the landings more carefully. If a skater has a reputation for this type of landing, the tech specialist may need to be much more careful when scrutinizing that skaters landings, more than the other competitors.

Johnny pointed out the same thing about Mirai's landings in one of the broadcasts last season, but he said something about a "hook" as well and how this kind of landing would make it more likely for the judges to look closely for URs. I wish I could find a copy of that broadcast. At any rate, seems like she needs to fix her landing technique.

Icey · Nov 18, 2014

noskates said:
I thought - and this will not be a popular post in this thread - that something Johnny said in his commentary just kind of summed up Mirai for me......"the look on her face is somewhere between bored and angry!" It would not hurt her to smile or show some emotion during her program. I watched NBC's coverage yesterday and Mirai just always looks to me like she's phoning it in. She still has the speed but everything else is just okay. She's well known for URs and I'm sure the judges look at her more closely because of it. I will say she had one of the most beautiful dresses I've seen this year. Absolutely gorgeous and so appropriate for her music. But unless something drastic changes I really don't think she'll be on the Nats podium. Sorry.

Why would she smile in a program in which she is about to kill herself? In this particular program, I see no problem with her facial expressions. Even a blank expression is appropriate considering the character is probably, like most suicides, depressed to some degree.

coolboogie22 · Nov 18, 2014

I agree that Mirai have a tendancy of UR her jumps, BUT! There is something wrong, the technical panel is very harsh with her this year! compared to the others skaters.
In the FS, the triple flip/triple toe was fine to me. I thing she should have get the points for the jumps. It's not like Mirai jumps have change that much since 2014 nationals. They always give her the jumps before with those type of rotation. I can understand why Mirai is really :shocked: with her scores, she know that she is improving under Tom with the speed and attack and not getting any recognition :no:

I pretty sure that if we change the face of Mirai and put Pogorilaya face in the body of Mirai, she would not get all thoses ''UR'' :scowl:

In another hands, she gets a lot of points with thoses UR jumps compared to others skaters, maybe she should use it like a motivation. All she needs is putting the triple axel with UR and this will upgrade her technical points :points:

Tavi... · Nov 18, 2014

Icey said:
Why would she smile in a program in which she is about to kill herself? In this particular program, I see no problem with her facial expressions. Even a blank expression is appropriate considering the character is probably, like most suicides, depressed to some degree.

You are so wrong about this. Butterfly doesn't begin to lose hope and joy until the very end of the opera, when she sees Pinkerton's new wife - and that's on page 249 of my 266 page score. It's the fact that she's still so full of hope until the very end that makes her a tragic character. The aria which forms a large part of Mirai's program is the point in the opera where she most strongly expresses hope and confidence that Pinkerton will return. She 's not depressed, she's not about to kill herself, and she should absolutely not have a dead face.

rvi5 · Nov 18, 2014

Matilda said:
Johnny pointed out the same thing about Mirai's landings in one of the broadcasts last season, but he said something about a "hook" as well and how this kind of landing would make it more likely for the judges to look closely for URs. I wish I could find a copy of that broadcast. At any rate, seems like she needs to fix her landing technique.

I think Mirai's method of landing makes it easier for her to maintain her balance after an under-rotation. Landing and twisting on the toe-pick helps dissipate some of the rotational momentum before carving onto a smoother edge. The skaters who land on an edge will be whipped around faster and suddenly (the J-shape carving). That could cause a loss of balance resulting in more stumbles, hands-down, two-foots, and falls. If you listen to the British Eurosport commentary, they mention it is hard to see Mirai's under-rotations because she does it so fast (probably because she is likely initially twisting on her toe-pick, not carving on an edge).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogeVAw0liRc
...at the 1:27 minute mark.

ETA: What she needs to fix is her UR. However, fixing her landing technique will help garner less attention from the technical specialists. I would think landing on a toe-pick would also cause a reduction in speed coming out of the jumps.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 18, 2014

karne said:
While I do agree there needs to be a greater punishment for falling, I think the current penalties for URing are perfectly fine. If Mirai wants to not get penalised, then she should rotate her jumps. She should know this. I hope she is not listening to anyone who might tell her that it's all the evil judges' fault!

I agree. We will always find things that we would like to modify with the scoring system, but skaters have to accept that certain things will be penalized and must adapt appropriately. This has been a problem for Mirai for 5+ years so I'm not sure why the < calls still surprise her.

Icey · Nov 18, 2014

papagena said:
You are so wrong about this. Butterfly doesn't begin to lose hope and joy until the very end of the opera, when she sees Pinkerton's new wife - and that's on page 249 of my 266 page score. It's the fact that she's still so full of hope until the very end that makes her a tragic character. The aria which forms a large part of Mirai's program is the point in the opera where she most strongly expresses hope and confidence that Pinkerton will return. She 's not depressed, she's not about to kill herself, and she should absolutely not have a dead face.

Miria's score for "I "was only .54 points below the highest score given for that component (performances in Russia), so the judges must not have thought she did too badly in that area. Many do not know the opera with the admirable detail that you do, so, like me, they don't look for all the nuances you would desire to see. That being said, Mirai probably knows the story so maybe she should be giving us those nuances. I wonder if the judges would reward her if she did.

noskates · Nov 18, 2014

Thank you papagena. But as always, there are a myriad of excuses for why Mirai is (1) underscored; (2) okay to skate without expression; (3) victimized by the judging system; and (4) just basically tragic. I'm still waiting for her to prove to all of you that she still has "it!" I KNOW there's a beautiful skater in her.......but will it ever come out again?

fallingsk8er · Nov 18, 2014

Mirai seems to know how the skating world works. if she wants to succeed, she will show up at nationals prepared to rotate her jumps and actually perform. Hopefully, she will make it easy for the judges to give her a medal.

Tavi... · Nov 18, 2014

Icey said:
Miria's score for "I "was only .54 points below the highest score given for that component (performances in Russia), so the judges must not have thought she did too badly in that area. Many do not know the opera with the admirable detail that you do, so, like me, they don't look for all the nuances you would desire to see. That being said, Mirai probably knows the story so maybe she should be giving us those nuances. I wonder if the judges would reward her if she did.

Hmmm. Do you mean in the ladies FS? If so, her scores for interpretation ranged from 5.75 to 7.5. After the low & high were thrown out, her average mark for interpretation was 6.96, which seems pretty low to me. So I think her lack of expression is not helping her. I'm truly not sure if her deadpan face reflects a mistaken understanding of the character or if she just has a lot of demons when she competes. I do know that she is capable of great expression and beautiful movement, so I hope for her sake she overcomes her demons and her technical issues.

cjuarez · Nov 18, 2014

papagena said:
You are so wrong about this. Butterfly doesn't begin to lose hope and joy until the very end of the opera, when she sees Pinkerton's new wife - and that's on page 249 of my 266 page score. It's the fact that she's still so full of hope until the very end that makes her a tragic character. The aria which forms a large part of Mirai's program is the point in the opera where she most strongly expresses hope and confidence that Pinkerton will return. She 's not depressed, she's not about to kill herself, and she should absolutely not have a dead face.

Cioio San is not depressed she commits suicide because of honour.

chuckm · Nov 18, 2014

It doesn't matter what music she chooses---Mirai skates with that same blank expression all the time. She got higher PCS scores at Skate America for a similar performance because she was skating at home with lots of hopeful, adoring fans in the audience who were waiting to give her a standing ovation. But in Russia, audiences love broad, emotional performances and react with wild cheers, while flat performances get minimal applause, and the judges pick up on that.

I believe Mirai focuses all her attention on executing her elements and not on performing and selling her program, hence the blank face. That she is doing that and still not rotating her jumps is a double whammy.

Tavi... · Nov 18, 2014

cjuarez said:
cioio san is not depressed she commits suicide because of honour.

Sorry - was your comment directed towards me? I did say that she isn't depressed.

Mirai Nagasu's future prospects

noskates

JayW

drivingmissdaisy

jenaj

chuckm

AngelENTL

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Matilda

Icey

coolboogie22

Match Penalty

Tavi...

rvi5

drivingmissdaisy

Icey

noskates

fallingsk8er

Tavi...

cjuarez

chuckm

Tavi...

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