State of the U.S. Men's Figure Skating for 2014-15

End of the Season roundup

Going back to this thread to give my basic thoughts on the season. We still have World Team Trophy, but since only 2 US men will be there, thought this was a natural way to wrap things up.

Yes, the three men (Jason Brown, Adam Rippon and Joshua Farris) had the distinct advantage of boosting overall data with two competitions, but the numbers will show that some scores/averages did hold up even though there was no post-Nationals competition.

So there were two things I looked at. Season's Best and Averages. Season's best/Averages includes the best and average of all Challenge Series/GP/Worlds/4CC scores earned this season. I also took the seasons best/average ranks in each category and average them to give an overall impression of the season.

For the sake of discussion, I will focus on the men who are currently on the International Selection Pool for 2015-2016. The only person who won't be part of this roundup is Sean Rabbit, who finished 12th at Nationals and was included in the international selection pool for the first time. This list also does not account for any retirements as no announcements have been made of this write up.
***

ETA: A few points to get out of this data.

1.) Jason Brown's relative consistency helped him get No. 1 status. Jason did not rank the highest in many categories including Season's Best FS/Overall (Josh did). And other guys were No. 1 in other segments including Max (FS TES Averages); Richard (SP TES Averages); Jeremy (SP overall/PCS average/season's best); Stephen (SP TES season best). However Jason did manage to get No.1 in several categories and was no worse than 4th (in SP TES Averages) in the rest. That resulted in a 1.86 overall average ranking, well above second place finisher Max Aaron (3.29). And even in Season's best average ranking was 2.24, second only behind Josh. We'll see what impact the quad will have on his consistency. Jason's calling card is clean programs and when he doesn't have them...he can fare quite poorly as we saw with his SP TES scores this season.

2.) Joshua Farris can score big and snatch No. 1 status from Jason next year if he skates well. His season best rankings averaged 1.57, which means he was No. 1 in just about every category. His 4CC performances show what he's capable of. But we also saw how injuries/mental struggles/external factors could play havoc too. His average ranking was 6.43, a reflection of less stellar performances. If Josh can get over nerves/mental game factors (and land quads constantly), watch out. He could be USA No. 1 come 2016.

3.) Max Aaron and Richard Dornbush are still strong contenders for future world teams and even are dark horses to snatch No. 1 status. Unfortunately they didn't peak at Nationals (and in Aaron's case, he had to be set aside for a Nationals peaking Adam Rippon). However they were solid (even with early season GP/Challenger scores) in most categories. However there were weakenesses. Max Aaron had low SP scores (even in TES) while Richard did not rank well in FS TES scores on average.

4.) Adam Rippon peaked at Nationals. Though Adam showed improvement at Worlds, he did not replicate the performances he did at Nationals. He will have to prove that those performances were not a fluke. He did not do too bad, on the whole, and if he keep improving he could get back on the Worlds team in 2016.

5.) Jeremy Abbott can still get on a world team, should he choose to stay. His program components are some of the best (and THE best in the SP) and he did really good short programs this year. But his low TES in the free skate may raise the question if he has the stamina to keep up with the younger skaters.

6.) Dark horses for the World team are a plenty. They might not be the top contenders at Worlds. Stephen Carriere and Grant Hochstein did well at their GP/Challenger events. Ross Miner showed some promising programs and not some not-so-promising programs. Nathan Chen didn't make a splash this year, but perhaps we might see a different skater come next season after some much needed healing and rest.

See below for the numbers

***
Overall scores (Season's Best)
1. Joshua Farris, 260.01
2. Jason Brown, 248.29
3. Max Aaron, 240.22
4. Richard Dornbush, 237.28
5. Stephen Carriere 231.67
6. Adam Rippon 229.71
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7. Jeremy Abbot 229.65
8. Ross Miner 227.26
9. Grant Hochstein, 219.82
10. Nathan Chen 213.85
11. Douglas Razzano 204.48
12. Alexander Johnson, 193.06
13. Jordan Moeller, 173.54

Overall scores (Average)
1. Jason Brown 239.80
2. Max Aaron 228.20
3. Richard Dornbush 227.76
4. Jeremy Abbott 224.49
5. Adam Rippon 218.02
6. Joshua Farris 217.68
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7. Stephen Carriere 217.56
8. Ross Miner 214.13
9. Grant Hochstein, 212.10
10. Nathan Chen, 211.01
11. Douglas Razzano 201.32
12. Alexander Johnson 192.74
13. Jordan Moeller 173.54

Short Program (Season’s Best)
1. Jason Brown 84.32
2. Joshua Farris 84.29
3. Jeremy Abbott 82.21
4. Stephen Carriere 80.33
5. Ross Miner 80.24
5 Richard Dornbush 80.24
---
7 Max Aaron, 78.96
8 Adam Rippon 76.98
9 Grant Hochstein 72.92
10 Nathan Chen 72.57
11 Alexander Johnson 69.20
12 Douglas Razzano 66.23
13 Jordan Moeller 64.21

Short Program (Average)
1. Jeremy Abbott 82.16
2. Jason Brown 79.99
3. Richard Dornbush 78.94
4. Max Aaron 77.52
5. Stephen Carriere 74.57
6. Joshua Farris 72.05
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7. Grant Hochstein 71.31
8. Nathan Chen 71.22
9. Adam Rippon 70.37
10. Ross Miner 70.22
11. Alexander Johnson 68.10
12. Douglas Razzano 65.71
13. Jordan Moeller 64.21

Short Program TES (Season’s Best)
1. Stephen Carriere 44.58
2. Joshua Farris 44.53
3. Jason Brown 44.18
4. Richard Dornbush 42.51
5. Ross Miner 42.49
6. Jeremy Abbott 41.52
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7. Max Aaron 41.01
8. Nathan Chen 40.36
9. Grant Hochstein 37.97
10. Douglas Razzano 36.91
11. Adam Rippon 36.33
12. Alexander Johnson 33.29
13. Jordan Moeller 31.71

Short Program TES (Averages)
1. Richard Dornbush 40.98
2. Jeremy Abbott 40.96
3. Max Aaron 40.73
4. Jason Brown 40.28
5. Stephen Carriere 40.12
6. Nathan Chen 39.21
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7. Grant Hochstein 36.88
8. Joshua Farris 36.44
9. Douglas Razzano 34.42
10. Adam Rippon 33.94
11. Ross Miner 33.88
12. Alexander Johnson 32.12
13. Jordan Moeller 31.71


Short Program PCS (Season’s Best)
1. Jeremy Abbott, 41.52
2. Jason Brown 40.81
3. Joshua Farris 39.76
4. Max Aaron 38.95
5. Adam Rippon 38.81
6. Richard Dornbbush 38.79
--
7. Ross Miner 38.75
8. Alexander Johnson 36.05
9. Grant Hochstein 34.95
10. Stephen Carriere 34.75
11. Douglas Razzano 33.73
12. Jordan Moeller 33.50
13. Nathan Chen 33.21

Short Program PCS (Average)
1. Jeremy Abbott, 41.21
2. Jason Brown 40.03
3. Richard Dornbush 38.30
4. Max Aaron 37.12
5. Adam Rippon, 36.83
6. Ross Miner 36.64
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7. Joshua Farris 36.61
8. Alexander Johnson 35.98
9. Stephen Carriere 34.45
10. Grant Hochstein 34.43
11. Jordan Moeller 33.50
12. Nathan Chen 33.02
13. Douglas Razzano 32.81


Free Skate Overall (Season’s Best)
1. Joshua Farris 175.72
2. Jason Brown 167.35
3. Max Aaron 161.26
4. Richard Dornbush 157.92
5. Adam Rippon 154.57
6. Stephen Carriere 151.34
7. Grant Hochstein 150.13
8. Jeremy Abbott 148.16
9. Ross Miner 147.02
10. Nathan Chen 143.98
11. Douglas Razzano 138.25
12. Alexander Johnson 126.07
13. Jordan Moeller 125.60

Free Skate Overall (Averages)
1. Jason Brown 159.71
2. Max Aaron 150.68
3. Richard Dornbush 148.82
4. Adam Rippon 147.65
5. Joshua Farris 145.59
6. Ross Miner 143.91
7. Stephen Carriere 142.99
8. Jeremy Abbott 142.84
9. Grant Hochstein 140.79
10. Nathan Chen 139.79
11. Douglas Razzano 133.84
12. Jordan Moeller 125.60
13. Alexander Johnson 124.14
Free Skate TES (Season’s Best)
1. Joshua Farris 91.02
2. Max Aaron 83.46
3. Jason Brown 83.12
4. Grant Hochstein 80.13
5. Adam Rippon 77.82
6. Stephen Carriere 77.48
7. Richard Dornbush 76.92
8. Nathan Chen 74.76
9. Ross Miner 71.78
10. Douglas Razzano 71.77
11. Jeremy Abbott 64.28
12. Jordan Moeller 60.70
13. Alexander Johnson 57.77

Free Skate TES (Averages)
1. Max Aaron 77.91
2. Jason Brown 76.91
3. Adam Rippon 73.15
4. Nathan Chen 71.61
5. Stephen Carriere 71.42
6. Grant Hochstein 71.24
7. Richard Dornbush 71.20
8. Ross Miner 69.67
9. Joshua Farris 69.62
10. Douglas Razzano 66.30
11. Jeremy Abbott 61.29
12. Jordan Moeller 60.70
13. Alexander Johnson 55.66

Free Skate PCS (Season’s Best)
1. Joshua Farris 84.70
2. Jason Brown 84.60
3. Jeremy Abbott 83.86
4. Richard Dornbush 81.00
5. Adamp Rippon 79.64
6. Max Aaron 78.80
7. Ross Miner 77.50
8. Stephen Carriere 74.86
9. Grant Hochstein 71.10
10. Douglas Razzano 70.10
11. Alexander Johnson 69.70
12. Nathan Chen 69.22
13. Jordan Moeller 66.90


Free Skate PCS (Averages)
1. Jason Brown 82.78
2. Jeremy Abbott 81.54
3. Richard Dornbush 78.29
4. Joshua Farris 76.97
5. Ross Miner 74.24
6. Adam Rippon 73.60
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7. Max Aaron 73.10
8. Stephen Carriere 72.00
9. Grant Hochstein 71.05
10. Alexander Johnson 69.68
11. Nathan Chen 68.18
12. Douglas Razano 67.17
13. Jordan Moeller 66.90


Overall season’s best ranking
1. Joshua Farris 1.57
2. Jason Brown 2.14
3. Max Aaron 4.57
4. Richard Dornbush 4.86
5. Jeremy Abbott 5.57
6. Stephen Carriere 5.71
---
7. Adam Rippon 6.43
8. Ross Miner 7.14
9. Grant Hochstein 8.00
10. Nathan Chen 10.14
11. Douglas Razzano 10.71
12. Alexander Johnson 11.29
13. Jordan Moeller 12.71

Overall average ranking

1. Jason Brown 1.86
2. Max Aaron 3.29
3. Richard Dornbush 3.29
4. Jeremy Abbott 4.14
5. Adam Rippon 6.14
6. Joshua Farris 6.43
---
7. Stephen Carriere 6.57
8. Ross Miner 7.71
9. Grant Hochstein 8.14
10. Nathan Chen 8.71
11. Douglas Razzano 11.14
12. Alexander Johnson 11.29
13. Jordan Moeller 11.29

I appreciate your work, Mrs P. These tables are amazing.

But I'm afraid I can't look at them for the moment, because there's one name consistently in the top two and three, and yet...

Mrs. P - you are AMAZING

5. Ross Miner 42.49
6. Jeremy Abbott 31.52
--
7. Max Aaron 41.01

Click to expand...

I take it that Jeremy's score is a misprint?

Great analysis, thank you so much Mrs P!

Sooooo happy for Sean

Thanks for your hard work Mrs.P - numbers don't lie!

I think we'll continue to see the Jason vs. Josh podium dance next season. As you pointed out Jason is consistent with a capital C (except when he's putting in not-quite-ready-for-prime-time quads in his SP). Josh has all the talent but is still working on the mental game and also needs a more consistently landed quad. It bugs me that some folks are calling him the new Jeremy (aka headcase with beautiful artistic skating), I think it's way too early for that.

I love Adam, too but he needs to get that quad lutz more consistent rather than 40% of the time, otherwise he's just not making much progress. I give him credit for putting it out there but it may be hurting him more in the end. And even his Rippon lutz is hurting him b/c it was called UR at Worlds.

Max, I'm not sure what he can do to improve his artistry. I did like his Gladiator but couldn't stand his Footloose SP. When Max connects with a role (he's kind of like Ashley in that regard) he can really sell a program.

I think Nathan has huge potential for next year if he is healthy and can withstand his growth spurt.

To me it seems like Adam can either do a 4lz< with a shaky landing (Nationals SP) or a 4lz<< landed on one foot. To make trying the jumps worth it I think he needs to be able to land a 4lz< cleanly as that would probably net him enough points for it to be worthwhile, if the jump gets downgraded it's a wash and if its UR with a bad landing then that won't get him many points either. I know he used to try 4s and that was usually short of rotation too, but idk, his 3a has improved, maybe his trying 4s or 4t again is worth a shot?

dorispulaski said:

I take it that Jeremy's score is a misprint?

Click to expand...

Yep! It has been corrected.

apgold said:

Thanks for your hard work Mrs.P - numbers don't lie!

I think we'll continue to see the Jason vs. Josh podium dance next season. As you pointed out Jason is consistent with a capital C (except when he's putting in not-quite-ready-for-prime-time quads in his SP). Josh has all the talent but is still working on the mental game and also needs a more consistently landed quad. It bugs me that some folks are calling him the new Jeremy (aka headcase with beautiful artistic skating), I think it's way too early for that.

I love Adam, too but he needs to get that quad lutz more consistent rather than 40% of the time, otherwise he's just not making much progress. I give him credit for putting it out there but it may be hurting him more in the end. And even his Rippon lutz is hurting him b/c it was called UR at Worlds.

Max, I'm not sure what he can do to improve his artistry. I did like his Gladiator but couldn't stand his Footloose SP. When Max connects with a role (he's kind of like Ashley in that regard) he can really sell a program.

I think Nathan has huge potential for next year if he is healthy and can withstand his growth spurt.

Click to expand...

Well you can manipulate/cherry pick numbers, but I honestly tried to make an effort to do an apples-to-apples comparison. Obviously it's impossible to have a perfect comparison given different judging panels, but I think I did the best I can. I also tried to do season's best and averages because I think it best illustrates the scenario in the U.S. right now.

I agree that we'll see a continuation of the Jason/Josh ping pong match that we've seen since 2007. I looked at a head to head match up from Curran Oi's new Stats on Ice website and it was fascinating to see the back and forth between those two.

Starting in 2008, when they were both at the Intermediate Level, Josh was 3-0 (US Jr. National Champaionships 2008 (Intermediate), Midwestern Sectionals 2009 (Novice), U.S. Championships 2009 (Novice). Then Jason was 5-0 (Midwestern Championships 2010 (Junior); Us Championship (Junior), US Championships 2011 (Senior), Junior Grand Prix Final 2011 (Junior), US Championships 2012 (Senior). Then Josh went 4-0 after that (Junior Worlds 2012 (Junior), Junior Grand Prix Final 2012 (Junior), Us Championships (Senior), Junior Worlds 2013.

Since both entering seniors internationally in the 2013-2014 season, Jason is 3 to 1. Jason beat him at both U.S. Championships and at Worlds while Josh, as we all know beat him at 4CC this season.

That equals a TIE of 8-8.

So what wil 2015-2016 hold?!

Anyway, I agree it's way to early to call Josh the next Jeremy. They have similar qualities in their skating, but I think Josh's competition nerves can be dealt with.

I felt really bad for Max doing these stats and Richard as well. On the whole they fared better internationally but they just didn't peak at the right time.

I have hope that Nathan can get past his growth/injuries...he has some lovely qualities.

Shotaro Omori
‏@sho_om

One of the photos show Sho posing with Yuka, Jason D., and .... Alissa C.
So ... is the implication that Alissa is part of Sho's coaching team? I know that DSC was/is her own training base, but hadn't heard about her doing elite coaching??

golden411 said:

One of the photos show Sho posing with Yuka, Jason D., and .... Alissa C.
So ... is the implication that Alissa is part of Sho's coaching team? I know that DSC was/is her own training base, but hadn't heard about her doing elite coaching??

Click to expand...

Alissa previewed the ladies at Worlds on The Skating Lesson, and mentioned she is now coaching.

rosacotton said:

Alissa previewed the ladies at Worlds on The Skating Lesson, and mentioned she is now coaching.

Click to expand...

Thx for your answer, rosacotton . Best to Alissa and to Sho.

---

Cross-posting from the Josh thread, in case anyone over here would want to and could attend:

Good luck Shotaro. I remember liking his long program from 1 season back. Will he get any Grand Prix assignments?

Unfortunately, Shotaro Omori currently is not listed in USFS' 2015-16 International Selectional Pool (ISP) so he is not eligible for international assignments next season. Hopefully he will thrive in his new coaching environment and be considered for the ISP in the future, if not later this year.

Sylvia said:

Unfortunately, Shotaro Omori currently is not listed in USFS' 2015-16 International Selectional Pool (ISP) so he is not eligible for international assignments next season. Hopefully he will thrive in his new coaching environment and be considered for the ISP in the future, if not later this year.

Click to expand...

They can still add people. I wonder why he would not be. He was on the JGP last year.

The ISP currently includes all the senior men who competed at Nationals through 13th place plus Stephen Carriere (injury WD from Nationals). Timothy Dolensky (14th), Omori (17th) and Jimmy Ma (18th) all competed internationally this past fall but were not included in the initial ISP.

(1) Random thing re Nathan Chen:


(2) More about Czisny from Shotaro Omori ‏@sho_om :

golden411 said:

So ... should I be wondering why Nathan is at the OTC? Probably nothing significant?

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Nothing serious is what I've heard - just some end of the season testing/rehab., etc.

Hiro Yoshida got some good quotes from Nathan Chen at Junior Worlds in this article for IFS: http://www.ifsmagazine.com/articles/32767-backstage-at-the-2015-world-junior-championships

The past month has been really difficult. Before I came to this competition I already knew that I'm not competing for results, but for the experience and just to put myself out there. That's really all I was thinking about.

This is my last competition of the season. I'm going to take time off and get completely healed and slowly rehab my way back into skating. I don't know when I'll that will be as it's still a work in progress. I'll talk to my U.S. committee and figure it out.

I would definitely like to put myself out as more of a senior competitior next season rather than a junior. The ultimate goal is to be able to compete without injuries."

Click to expand...

Nathan just needs a injury free season for his skating to go to the next level. Even with those injuries he has managed to get a quad but still needs a stable 3axel but i'm sure if he's healthy he will get it.