2014-2015 GP Predictions game | Golden Skate

2014-2015 GP Predictions game

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
We're about a month out from Skate America.

I know some of you have already posted your prediction in but many of you have expressed interest in continuing the game.

For those are you who are new, for the last two years, the members of this forum have engaged in a fun predictions game that has lasted all season. The game was established by the Macassar88, who also coordinated the scoring.

In year two, tulosai took on the reigns and made some valuable revisions including a more streamline scoring format. In addition, CaroLiza_Fan did two spinoff predictions games for National Championships and the ISU Championships.

So here we are in year three! I have served as a scorer for the last two years and will continue to do so.

So here's what we need:

-- A Coordinator. I could do it. I guess I am volunteering in starting this thread. But I would be glad to yield to one of our previous coordinators.
-- Four scorers. Basically you would be responsible for scoring a single discipline during the GP series. I'd be glad to continue my tradition of scoring the men. I'd love for some our scorers from past games to return or I'd be glad to train some newbies. I also wouldn't mind having a few sub scorers when the main scorers are unable to do the scoring for a given event.
--- Feedback. Your thoughts on scoring rules, approach. Feel free to use this thread to give any thoughts you may have -- or simply to affirm your interest in continuing the tradition.

Once we have all that in place, I'll revise this post with the rules and format.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
I've been a scorer in the "spin-off" games for Ice Dance, but I would love to score Ladies :biggrin: I can help with any of the disciplines, though! (And I love being a competitor, too! :p )
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Is this year possible to stay with just ladies? I am following mostly them. Then my predictions are:

Skate America
Radionova
Tuktamysheva
Gold
Park
Imai
Nagasu

Skate Canada
Pogorilaya
Leonova
Wagner
Miyahara
Hicks
Weinzierl

Cup of China
Lipnitskaya
Tuktamysheva
Edmunds
Murakami
Li
Gao

Rostelekom cup
Sotnikova
Pogorilaya
Park
Nagasu
Gosviani
Weinzierl

Trophee Bombard
Lipniskaya
Radionova
Wagner
Imai
Meite
Hicks

NHK Trophy
Sotnikova
Edmunds
Leonova
Gold
Miyahara
Murakami

Basically, my prediction means it will be 5 Russian ladies in GPF with Leonova and Edmunds competing for the last spot, provided no one is injured, of course.
 

Snow63

Pray one day we'll open our eyes.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Very interesting idea. I will definitely participate.
And I am also ready to be a scorer (ice dance preferably, since it's my favourite discipline). If you will not find someone better, of course :laugh: I've never been one before. But I'm ready to learn.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
So, it's Mrs P, Snow63 and I so far? We need anothe one... Come on, guys! ;)
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Thanks a lot Mrs.P for creating this thread! It would be great if it could work out this season too, this game is a lot of fun :)

I'm not sure I could be a scorer again this season, as I'm really busy with studies right now. If nobody else would do it, I can still try to help out though. Maybe it's just that not a lot of people saw the thread in this sub-forum ^^"
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Well, I guess I might as well take the bull by the horns and coordinate this thing.

So:

* Okay, Snow63 and FSGMT, you are in and I will give your respective first choices (Ice Dance and Ladies). FSGMT, I think I have your email from the other game; Snow63, can you PM your email?

* So we need one more (Pairs). Anyone want to step up and do this one?

* Li'Kitsu, if you want, you can be a judging sub/pinchhitter How does that sound?

* [email protected]: You can of course stick to ladies, but that means a lot less points. Besides half the fun is trying to guess in disciplines you have no knowledge or interest in. :biggrin:


I will leave this thread for any additional feedback/thoughts before I get the ball rolling on the posting the official rules (which will be in the GP subforum).
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Well, I guess I might as well take the bull by the horns and coordinate this thing.

So:

* Okay, Snow63 and FSGMT, you are in and I will give your respective first choices (Ice Dance and Ladies). FSGMT, I think I have your email from the other game; Snow63, can you PM your email?

* So we need one more (Pairs). Anyone want to step up and do this one?

* Li'Kitsu, if you want, you can be a judging sub/pinchhitter How does that sound?

* [email protected]: You can of course stick to ladies, but that means a lot less points. Besides half the fun is trying to guess in disciplines you have no knowledge or interest in. :biggrin:


I will leave this thread for any additional feedback/thoughts before I get the ball rolling on the posting the official rules (which will be in the GP subforum).

I will second that. I don't even watch ice dance - and ended up doing relatively well in it. Apparently the less I think, the better I do. ;)
 

surimi

Onward and forward, Sota!
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2013
-- or simply to affirm your interest in continuing the tradition.

That's my case. I haven't been posting long in these forums, and am totally in for my first year of predictions. :)
 

elle_e

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 28, 2013
Well, I guess I might as well take the bull by the horns and coordinate this thing.

So:

* Okay, Snow63 and FSGMT, you are in and I will give your respective first choices (Ice Dance and Ladies). FSGMT, I think I have your email from the other game; Snow63, can you PM your email?

* So we need one more (Pairs). Anyone want to step up and do this one?

* Li'Kitsu, if you want, you can be a judging sub/pinchhitter How does that sound?

* [email protected]: You can of course stick to ladies, but that means a lot less points. Besides half the fun is trying to guess in disciplines you have no knowledge or interest in. :biggrin:


I will leave this thread for any additional feedback/thoughts before I get the ball rolling on the posting the official rules (which will be in the GP subforum).

If you're still in need of a scorer for pais, I am more than happy for volunteer myself :)
 

Rhodium

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
I think that tulosai scoring rules have the following drawback: rightly predicted first place and rightly predicted 5th place is worth the same points. I suppose you agree with me that the "distance" between first and second places is much larger than the distance between 5th and 6th places.

I suggest the following scoring rules. Let's define the distances between adjacent places:
1
< 4 points >
2
< 2 points >
3
< 2 points >
4
< 1 point >
5
< 1 point >
6
< 1 point >
7
< 0 points >
8
< 0 points > ...

A penalty points is the total distance between predicted and true places. Formally speaking, a participant should make predictions for all competitors, not only top-6. But actually it is enough to make predictions for first 6 places, because the distance between all other places is zero :) Withdrawed competitors have the same "level" as 7, 8, 9... places. Winner of the game is a participant who has the least total points.

There is an important feature of this sistem. It is enough to take into account only competitors whose true placement is better than predicted one, because a total penalty points for such competitors is exactly a half of total points for all competitors.

For example, let's assume the following results of Skate America:
1. Radionova
2. Gold
3. Nagasu
4. Tuk
5. Park
6. Meite

If my prediction is:
1. Gold
2. Tuk
3. Radionova
4. Han
5. Park
6. Popova
I would get 6 (Radionova: 1st actually, 3rd predicted) + 5 (Nagasu: 3rd actually, >6 predicted) + 1 (Meite: 6th actually, >6 predicted) = 12 (penalty) points.
 

guenever

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
I scored one of the spinoffs last year but I'll also be too busy this time around. I'd love to play though!
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Glad to see this is going forward!!! Let us know when you open a thread for the predictions and where it is!!
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
elle_e: Okay, I will have you in for pairs! :) Can you please PM your email? Thanks! This also means we have a full deck of scorers yay! I will be glad to accept pinchhitter/subs!

guenever/tulosai: Any interest in being a sub scorer/pinch hitter if one of our scorers are unable to score for some reason?

ETA: Rhodium -- thanks for your feedback regarding the scoring. That is not a bad idea--and I can see how that would streamline the scoring if we do it by least points. (It's a similar system done with office pools for NCAA tournaments, i believe. In my office pool -1 is for a wrong first round pick but then you lose like -15 if you have the wrong Final Four team)
 
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tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
elle_e: Okay, I will have you in for pairs! :) Can you please PM your email? Thanks!

guenever/tulosai: Any interest in being a sub scorer/pinch hitter if one of our scorers are unable to score for some reason?

Yes, most definitely :)
 

starlight97

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 14, 2014
Great ideas ! :)

One question:
Will this only work out if we all predict for all disciplines and all events?
I guess so right? Cause say I only predict the Ladies and Pairs that would be either an advantage or disadvantage, so everybody who participates predicts for all (that's the fun part :biggrin: ) ?
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Great ideas ! :)

One question:
Will this only work out if we all predict for all disciplines and all events?
I guess so right? Cause say I only predict the Ladies and Pairs that would be either an advantage or disadvantage, so everybody who participates predicts for all (that's the fun part :biggrin: ) ?

Exactly. If you only predict a few categories, you only get the points for those categories. If you do all of them, then more points!! And yes it's totally fun to predict categories you're not good at. I find the people who win actually have no knowlege, LOL.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
I think that tulosai scoring rules have the following drawback: rightly predicted first place and rightly predicted 5th place is worth the same points. I suppose you agree with me that the "distance" between first and second places is much larger than the distance between 5th and 6th places.
I'm not sure... Predicting who will place 1st in not necessarily more difficult than predicting who will place 5th; I would even say that in many cases predicting 1st place is easier than predicting lower placements, especially in Ice Dancing and Pairs (we all know for example that Volosozhar/Trankov or Cappellini/Lanotte will 99% win their events)... What do others think?


There is an important feature of this sistem. It is enough to take into account only competitors whose true placement is better than predicted one, because a total penalty points for such competitors is exactly a half of total points for all competitors.
Sorry, but I didn't really understand this part :scratch: Could you elaborate, maybe with some examples? (It has probably something to do with my English skills, I'm sorry :slink: )
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I'm not sure... Predicting who will place 1st in not necessarily more difficult than predicting who will place 5th; I would even say that in many cases predicting 1st place is easier than predicting lower placements, especially in Ice Dancing and Pairs (we all know for example that Volosozhar/Trankov or Cappellini/Lanotte will 99% win their events)... What do others think?

That's a really good point! I find predicting 3rd place can be hard for some events because there's easily any number of skaters who could end up there.

For example at Skate America men's field. Machida and Ten, IN THEORY, look good for 1st and Second. But 3rd place, IMO can be one of: Jason Brown, Jeremy Abbott or even Nam Nguyen, Artur Gachinski or Adian Pitkeev. What order would you put those five guys in?

And Ten isn't the most consistent skater either, so I think 2-7 could be in any order really.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
I find the people who win actually have no knowlege, LOL.

Mrs. P!!!! You're usually so nice but that is just harsh! "No knowledge" :slink:


:laugh: :laugh:

I'm just joking of course :biggrin: I think lack of bias plays a factor and is very important too. I couldn't bring myself to not put Yulia first in all of her events. No point is worth that sacrifice. You gotta believe!! This is why I've lost every fantasy football league or bracket I ever joined :bang:
 
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