JGP Finals potentials for Ice Dance/Men/Pairs

(Since the Ladies' discussion has a thread already!)

As the Germany events finish up, the JGP Finals pictures become clearer for each discipline.

Ice Dance is done and stands right here. Below the line are on the bubble.

1) Bent/Mackeen (CAN) - 15 (CZE) + 13 (EST) = 28
2) Popova/Vlasenko (RUS) - 13 (CZE) + 15 (GER) = 28
3) Loboda/Drozd (RUS) - 15 (FRA) + 13 (JPN) = 28
4) Edwards/Pang (CAN) - 13 (FRA) + 15 (JPN) = 28

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5) Macnamara/Carpenter (USA) - 11 (CZE) + 13 (GER) = 24
6) Delmaestro/Lum (CAN) - 13 (SLO) + 11 (GER) = 24


The only teams who have the chance to take a spot besides these are:

A) Yanovskaya/Mozgov (RUS) with 15 from EST.
B) Morozova/Zhirnov (RUS) with 15 from SLO.
C) Parsons/Parsons (USA) with 11 from JPN.

Situations:

1) Y/M and M/Z are both in if they get first OR second regardless of scores. Then M/C, D/L, and P/P will be the alternates (assuming P/P finishes 3rd, or 4th with at least a 118.05 to overtake Nazarova/Nikitin of UKR)
2) If one of Y/M or M/Z gets third or fourth, they're still in the Final for sure as long as the other gets first.
3) If one of Y/M or M/Z gets third and the other gets second, P/P could overtake for that last spot if they won with a higher score (20.58 higher than Y/M which is probably not likely, but they could do it with a win and a score 0.13 higher than M/Z if M/Z got third).
4) If one of Y/M or M/Z gets fourth, and the other doesn't win, P/P are in with a win with no score requirement.
5) If one of Y/M or M/Z falls to fifth, P/P are in with a win or a second AND a score greater than 138.62 (to overtake M/C)

TL;DR version: It's extremely likely that Y/M and M/Z qualify for the final, pushing out M/C of USA and D/L of CAN, as well as P/P of USA. I can see P/P beating M/Z, but not Y/M at this point in time. P/P essentially need to win or hope one of the other two teams bombs. M/C need one of the two Russian teams to fall to 4th or lower and for P/P to not up their SB.

Yes, that is the way it is.

Unless Shotoro pulls a crazy upset tomorrow (which is possible) and wins the whole thing or Karen Chen pulls off the win next week, I think Team USA runs the risk of being completely shutout of the JGPF. The last time that happened was in the 2001-2002 season.

Mrs. P said:

Unless Shotoro pulls a crazy upset tomorrow (which is possible) and wins the whole thing or Karen Chen pulls off the win next week, I think Team USA runs the risk of being completely shutout of the JGPF. The last time that happened was in the 2001-2002 season.

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Liu/Johnston could do it in Pairs. Currently in 4th and could pull higher, then they still have Croatia.

Chemistry66 said:

Liu/Johnston could do it in Pairs. Currently in 4th and could pull higher, then they still have Croatia.

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Well my fingers are cross for Liu/Johnston! They certainly have scored better than the rest of the U.S. Pairs!

Mrs. P said:

Well my fingers are cross for Liu/Johnston! They certainly have scored better than the rest of the U.S. Pairs!

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With less events they also need less total points, so a 4th or 5th even isn't a killer like it is for singles/ice dance.

So which US skaters have a chance for the final? What is the likely hood of Macnarmera and carpenter making it to the final?

Skategmt said:

So which US skaters have a chance for the final? What is the likely hood of Macnarmera and carpenter making it to the final?

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Very slim. It would take massive fails of the two Russian couples who skate in the next event. As long as both couples are on the podium (or stay in the top 4), The Americans are out.

Mrs. P said:

Well my fingers are cross for Liu/Johnston! They certainly have scored better than the rest of the U.S. Pairs!

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Considering they have only been a pair since April, they looked good! I liked the SBS lutzes with good height and on the right edge. I liked the rotational speed in the spins, too. The timing is not quite right on the throws yet, and so she fell. The synchronization of steps and spins needs work, but there is some good stuff there.

And they will be back on the JGP next season...they are very young.
she's 14 and he's 18.

MEN

Current Finals standings:

1) Boyang Jin (CHN) - 15 (SLO) + 15 (JPN) = 30
2) Alexander Petrov (RUS) - 13 (SLO) + 15 (EST) = 28
3) Sota Yamamoto (JPN) - 13 (FRA) + 13 (EST) = 26

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4) Roman Sadovsky (CAN) - 15(CZE) + 9(GER) = 24
5) He Zhang (CHN) - 11 (EST) + 13(GER) = 24
6) Alexander Samarin (RUS) - 11(FRA) + 13(CZE) = 24

Possible other qualifiers:
1) June Hyoung Lee (KOR) - 15 (FRA)
2) Andrei Lazukin (RUS) - 15 (GER)
3) Shoma Uno (JPN) - 13 (JPN)

Possible Spoilers:
1) Nathan Chen (USA) - Depending on how he's recovered from injury issues
2) Murad Kurbanov (RUS) - Don't know much about him, but the Russian men seem to do well

Situations:
1) For Lee/Lazukin: A podium finish will definitely qualify, since it'll provide at least 26 points. A 4th place finish for either could also qualify them, but depends on tiebreaker situations. If either is 4th with a score that beats Sadovsky (180.72+ for Lee/181.85+ for Lazukin), they're in for sure since they'd be in 4th qualifying with only the other + Uno to possibly overtake. With scores that don't overtake Sadovsky, Lee or Lazukin would need the other to finish 5th or lower OR Uno to finish 3rd or lower. Anything 5th or lower and they're out on points.
2) For Uno: In for sure with a 1st or 2nd (would be at least 4th in qualifying, so Lee/Lazukin's finishes wouldn't matter). With a 3rd, needs a - 169.56+ to qualify over Zhang AND at least one of Lee/Lazukin to finish 5th or below (both 4th or above would push Uno to 1st alternate), a 147.87+ to qualify over Samarin AND both of Lee/Lazukin to finish 5th or below (either 4th or above would push him to alternate) Anything lower than 3rd and he's out on points.

TL;DR version: Lee and Lazukin are both in for sure as long as they finish 3rd or higher, in with a 4th depending on tiebreakers. Uno is in with a 1st, 2nd, or a 3rd with a specific score (definitely attainable) AND specific finishes from Lee/Lazukin (less attainable). Sadovsky still has a definite chance, but it's less likely for Zhang/Samarin.

PAIRS:

Current Finals standings:

1) Seguin/Bilodeau (CAN) - 15 (CZE) + 15 (GER) = 30
2) Fedorova/Miroshkin (RUS) - 13 (CZE) + 13 (GER) = 26
3) Gainetdinova/Alexeev (RUS) - 11 (CZE) + 13 (EST) = 24

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4) Gubanova/Sinitsov (RUS) - 9 (CZE) + 11 (EST) = 20

Note: Only 4 listed here because current 5th and 6th teams still haven't competed their second event.

Other potential qualifiers:
1) Vigalova/Zakroev (RUS) - 15 (EST), currently 5th in the standings
2) Liu/Johnson (USA) - 11 (GER), currently 6th in the standings
3) Beklemisheva/Bobrov (RUS) - 9 (GER)
4) Koga/Boudreau-Audet (CAN) - 9 (EST)

Technically, anyone on this list: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2014/jgpspairs.htm could still mathematically qualify if they're competing in Croatia, due to Pairs having less events.

Situations:
1) Vigalova/Zakroev are in for sure with anything 5th or over, since with a total of 22, they'd be in 4th qualifying and only two other teams could get that high AND win a tiebreaker. Even 6th doesn't kill their chances, as other teams would have to finish in very specific places to bump them out.
2) Liu/Johnson are in for sure with a 1st or 2nd, likely in with a 3rd since it would require two lower teams beating V/Z, and just as still likely in with a 4th but it would depend on exact scores.
3) Beklemisheva/Bobrov and Koga/Boudreau-Audet: In with a 1st, possibly in with a 2nd, a third would depend on the other team + L/J + V/Z AND exact scores.

TL;DR version: Vigalova/Zakroev are essentially in. Liu/Johnson are probably in. The rest is a placements/scores race.

(With so few competitors, it's amazing how much more of a headache the qualifying race is!)

Chemistry66 said:

... Possible Spoilers:
1) Nathan Chen (USA) - Depending on how he's recovered from injury issues
2) Murad Kurbanov (RUS) - Don't know much about him, but the Russian men seem to do well ...

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Absolutely disagree re the possibility of Chen or Kurbanov as spoilers.
Neither can qualify for the JGPF without a "perfect-storm" combination of MANY unlikely scenarios coming true at once:
The same is true for both, although I will use only Nathan's name in the explanation below.

Even if Nathan were to win Croatia, the following conditions ALL must be met:

And even IF (by some miracle) all the conditions above are met:

golden411 said:

Absolutely disagree re the possibility of Chen or Kurbanov as spoilers.
Neither can qualify for the JGPF without a "perfect-storm" combination of MANY unlikely scenarios coming true at once:
The same is true for both, although I will use only Nathan's name in the explanation below.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2014/jgpsmen.htm​

Even if Nathan were to win Croatia, the following conditions ALL must be met:

- Five withdrawals come from men who already have completed their two GPs with sixteen points or more.
- June Hyoung LEE and Andrei LAZUKIN earn zero standing points in Croatia.
- Shoma UNO earns no more than two standing points in Croatia.​

And even IF (by some miracle) all the conditions above are met:

- Unless Lee and Lazukin withdraw entirely from Croatia, it will be virtually impossible for Chen to win the second tiebreaker over them. So those two also would have to withdraw from the JGPF for Nathan to qualify.​

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I think what Chemistry is saying is that Nathan is a spoiler as far as changing who gets in into JGPF not that he would end up getting in (she puts a separate list for qualifiers, for example). If Nathan wins and forces one of the three guys into fourth, they end up getting into a tie-breaker scenario with Roman, for example.

Or if Nathan and Kubanov end up 1+2 and force one of the three guys into 5th, basically leading them to be out of the JGPF and Roman gets in...

If those two guys were not around, Lee/UNO/Lazukin would all likely podium and kick Roman out of JGPF.

Mrs. P said:

I think what Chemistry is saying is that Nathan is a spoiler as far as changing who gets in into JGPF not that he would end up getting in (she puts a separate list for qualifiers, for example). If Nathan wins and forces one of the three guys into fourth, they end up getting into a tie-breaker scenario with Roman, for example.

Or if Nathan and Kubanov end up 1+2 and force one of the three guys into 5th, basically leading them to be out of the JGPF and Roman gets in...

If those two guys were not around, Lee/UNO/Lazukin would all likely podium and kick Roman out of JGPF.

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Ohhhhh, my apologies -- esp. to Chem66.

LOL, I thought I had remembered that Chem was the one who recently had (justifiably) burst someone else's bubble re Nathan in another thread, so I had been confused as to why her post here (as I originally misunderstood it) seemed to put Nathan back into the mix. Thanks for demystifying my confusion, Mrs. P.

golden411 said:

Ohhhhh, my apologies -- esp. to Chem66.

LOL, I thought I had remembered that Chem was the one who recently had (justifiably) burst someone else's bubble re Nathan in another thread, so I had been confused as to why her post here (as I originally misunderstood it) seemed to put Nathan back into the mix. Thanks for demystifying my confusion, Mrs. P.

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It's fine! I can see your initial confusion, but yeah, Mrs. P interpreted what I meant! At this stage, there's usually very few one-event skaters that are at a high level of skill. Like Gracie Gold winning in her JGP in Estonia a few years ago, having no chance to qualify herself but throwing a wrench into other potential qualifiers' needs.

I hope Roman qualifies. He only has an outside chance but I love the flow of his skating. I also hope he gets his axel before junior worlds.

Liu and Johnson the only ones with a chance to help the US save face. A shut-out from the Junior Grand Prix Final would be quite a statement.

and how strange is it that pairs might be the US face saver?

dorispulaski said:

and how strange is it that pairs might be the US face saver?

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Indeed. But I'm quite impressed with Liu and Johnson! I love they already have a triple twist and attempting the 3Lo throw. They look good to take the junior title at Nationals. Also I think the age/height difference is workable compared to when Liu was with Perini.

Also want to note Karen Chen also still has a shot in Ladies.

dorispulaski said:

and how strange is it that pairs might be the US face saver?

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Someone better put their foot down, give them a stare that could bore a hole in their skulls, and... snarl? or is that too mcuh? - can anything be too much in desperate circumstances? - so snarl - or alternatively growl - or hiss (whatever may seem the most effective, you know): "And don't you DARE even think about splitting up! Understood?!" Catch'em young, when they are still malleable...