Ladies Prospects After Two Events | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Ladies Prospects After Two Events

Snow63

Pray one day we'll open our eyes.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
My thoughts (which I put on the Russian ladies thread):

COR: Anna P. should win Rostelecom Cup easily and punch her ticket. I don't really see any surprises the other competitors in this competition just don't have the tech content. Even if one of the others somehow wins, their poor showings elsewhere will leave them short in points. The only one I could see maybe making it with a win here is Soyoun Park and that's only with some major stars aligning in TEB and NHK (i.e. Akiko Suzuki in 2009-2010 -- see here: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2009/gpsladies.htm)

TEB: Elena Radionova should make it with a podium finish and even should she bomb to 4th, her gold at SA will likely save her. Yulia Lipnitskaya and Ashley Wagner can secure spots by finishing 2nd. All three could make it with Yulia/Ashley going 1+2 and Elena 3rd. If one of Yulia/Ashley end up 3rd, they will likely end up in a tiebreaker situation if a bronze medalist from an earlier GP gets silver.

NHK: We have a stacked field of bronze GP medalists (Gold, Miyahara, Murakami) and Edmunds, who finished 4th at COC. Basically, the NHK winner (unless its Adelina -- if she competes) will get in including Polina. The silver medalist (if its one of the previous bronze GP medalists) could get in if they win a tiebreaker with another silver/bronze person (i.e. if Yulia/Ashley finishes 3rd at TEB). If we have a Yulia/Ashley/Elena or Ashley/Yulia/Elena situation in TEB, then only the winner of NHK will get in.

I think the field will likely
Anna P (win both events -30)
Liza (gold/silver -28)
Elena (win both events 30, gold/silver 28 or gold/bronze 26)
Yulia (gold/silver 28 or 2 silvers 26 or silver bronze/24)
Ashley (2 silvers 26 or silver/bronze 24)
Whoever wins at NHK of (Miyahara/Gold/Murakami (26) or Polina (24) OR if Adelina wins NHK the silver medalist of either Miyahara/Gold/Murakami (24)

It would be funny if only russian and american ladies will qualify. And it's a real possibility.
 

apgold

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Country
United-States
Does Rika Hongo have any chance at the GPF? She has 22 points (mostly from her win at RC). It looks to me like to make the final, one needs at least 24 points?

Probably not, unless Satoko or Kanako bomb at NHK which is highly unlikely. Out of the Japanese ladies, my money is on Satoko to be in the final six due to her consistency.

I hope Ashley is the final too, to show that she is still in the mix :)
 

marcolee925

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 14, 2005
According to past experience, anything with more than 24 points should qualify. Those on 24 may or may not, depending on tie break. With 4 events down, here is the status:

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsladies.htm

Qualified: Tuk, Pog

With TEB being a pretty sure podium of Rad (15), Lip (13) and Wagner (13), whoever place 1st and 2nd should be safe. Rad is also safe if she places 3rd. If Lip or Wagner place third, they will likely have to go to tie break. It's likely to be Wagner, but Wagner has a relatively high score for her first event and is likely safe even with 3rd. Cesario or Hicks have to win to even be on tie break and that's unlikely.

Assuming 2 to 3 qualify at TEB, that leaves 1 to 2 spots for NHK. Miyahara, Gold and Murakami are on 11 each and whichever one of them that wins will qualify. Whichever that gets silver will likely be on tie break with whoever that ends up with 24 points after TEB. If Edmunds wins, she gets to 24 and most likely on tie break.

Given how everyone skated in their event, I am going to predict the qualifiers are:

Tuk, Pog, Rad (1st, TEB), Lip (2nd TEB), Miyahara (1st NHK) and Wagner (3rd TEB)

With alternates being Gold, Murakami and Hongo. (If Edmunds wins silver at NHK, she gets 22 points too and will be another tie break with Hongo for the last spot on the alternate list)
 
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