Dance Prospects After Two and Four Events

As we say in New England, there are more ways to kill a cat than by choking it to death with butter.

Here are the standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsdance.htm

Ilinykh&Zhiganshin have 22 points, a first tiebreak of second, and a second tie break of 305.13 points. There first outing in China earned 144.7 points.

Sinitsina&Katsalapov have 9 points from COR, a fourth place, and a first total score of 147.55 points.

They have to either finish first at NHK (not happening with Weaver & Poje there)
or second, with a higher total score than I&Z.

Chock&Bates are already in. Shibutanis are already in. No other spots are secure at this time.

At TEB, P&C only need to finish fifth to surpass Ilinykh&Zhiganshin and Sinitsina&Katsalapov. So they are a good bet.
At NHK, the same is true for Weaver&Poje.

And so there are two open spots with several teams in the running.

At TEB
Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON FRA Assumed in
Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER CAN 13 points and score of 152.60
Hubbell & Donohue, 11 points and first score of 148.23
Paul and Islam with 7 points
Guignard & Fabbri with 5 points
Hurtado &Diaz with 0 points
Kim & Minov with 0 points

If Gilles &Poirier finish second, they are in. If 3rd, they beat Ilinykh&Zhiganshin anyway with 24 points, and Sinitsina&Katsalapov if they finish anything but first at NHK. So they are probably in.
If Hubbell&Donohue finishes 2nd, they would beat Ilinykh&Zhiganshin, and probably be in.

The rest of the field is so weak that it would be hard to have any other top 3.
Perhaps Paul & Islam will come alive, but I doubt it.


At NHK
Weaver&Poje Presumed In
Coomes & Buckland, 11 points and a score of 158.02 in their first event
Sinitsina&Katsalapov with 9 points and a first event score of 147.55 points.
Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN RUS with 9 points and a score in their first event of 143.48
Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI with 7 points
Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER USA 5 points
Emi HIRAI / Marien DE LA ASUNCION JPN 0 points
Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 0 points

There is a little more scope for different placings here, but the difference in incoming points is so high between Penny&Nick and Victoria & Nikita that a tie won't do. The Russians must finish 3 places ahead of the British. So high to get Penny & Nick down to 5th? While fourth is feasible, if Hawayek &Baker come out smokin', I can't see Nelli and Alexander beating them. But that would be the play.

Based on their previous performances and placements, we are likely to see these couples competing in GPF _

Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES - sure
Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE - presumed
Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON - presumed
Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI - sure

Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND - likely if they get the same score in their last competition
Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER - likely if they get the same score in their last competition

Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN - if the CAN Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER score lower than their previous score, the RUS can make it.

Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA - highly unlikely
Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS - highly unlikely but if they score better than the other RUS - Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN , they'll make it.

dorispulaski said:

At NHK
Weaver&Poje Presumed In
Coomes & Buckland, 11 points and a score of 158.02 in their first event
Sinitsina&Katsalapov with 9 points and a first event score of 147.55 points.
Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN RUS with 9 points and a score in their first event of 143.48
Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI with 7 points
Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER USA 5 points
Emi HIRAI / Marien DE LA ASUNCION JPN 0 points
Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 0 points

There is a little more scope for different placings here, but the difference in incoming points is so high between Penny&Nick and Victoria & Nikita that a tie won't do. The Russians must finish 3 places ahead of the British. So high to get Penny & Nick down to 5th? While fourth is feasible, if Hawayek &Baker come out smokin', I can't see Nelli and Alexander beating them. But that would be the play.

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What if Coomes/Buckland will be 3rd? I/Z and even S/K will win first tie-breaker, right? 2nd place+4th place VS 3rd place+3rd place.

Yes, that is so.

dorispulaski said:

Yes, that is so.

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Thanks. So I get it, I/Z's (or S/K) only chance to go to GPF if Hubbell/Donohue will be no higher than 3rd place at TEB AND Coomes/Buckland will be no higher than 3rd place at NHK. No matter what scores they will get at these events.

Edit: I'm assuming that everyone will be healthy of course.

Snow63 said:

Thanks. So I get it, I/Z's (or S/K) only chance to go to GPF if Hubbell/Donohue will be no higher than 3rd place at TEB AND Coomes/Buckland will be no higher than 3rd place at NHK. No matter what scores they will get at these events.

Edit: I'm assuming that everyone will be healthy of course.

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Yes, exactly so. At this time, it is very very unlikely (though not impossible, as Doris explained in great detail above) for a Russian team to make the GPF this year assuming all stay healthy.

tulosai said:

Yes, exactly so. At this time, it is very very unlikely (though not impossible, as Doris explained in great detail above) for a Russian team to make the GPF this year assuming all stay healthy.

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I agree.
But that's why I mentioned Zagreb event in the first place If there's still a chance who knows what's gonna happen at the final event, who's gonna rise and fall. And why :think:

That's true. The weirdest consequence is that Elena & Ruslan will be rooting for Victoria and Nikita to beat Penny and Nick, but not by too much.

Snow63 said:

What if Coomes/Buckland will be 3rd? .

Click to expand...

No chance. Unless C&B have a complete disaster.

Edit: Who knows though. :scratch:

Final GPF Dance Roster!

Alphabetically:
-Chock/Bates
-Gilles/Poirer
-Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
-Papadakis/Cizeron
-Shibutani/Shibutani
-Weaver/Poje

Alternates:
-Monko/Khalivain
-Hubble/Donohue
-Coomes/Buckland

Congrats to the qualifiers!

Alba said:

No chance. Unless C&B have a complete disaster.

Edit: Who knows though. :scratch:

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Uh...Cassandra.

Ilinykh and Zhiganshin do not deserve to be at the GPF but they did what they need to do and some teams fell by the wayside so they got their spot.

I really hope Coomes and Buckland are not doomed because of their stumble at NHK. At least they earned some Japanese fans. They loved their SD.

Also, is Weaver and Poje about to lose their spot as the team to win this season's world championship?? As unfortunate as it is to say, I feel like they are about to receive the Shibutani treatment at GPF (i.e. dump them)

GF2445 said:

Ilinykh and Zhiganshin do not deserve to be at the GPF but they did what they need to do and some teams fell by the wayside so they got their spot.

I really hope Coomes and Buckland are not doomed because of their stumble at NHK. At least they earned some Japanese fans. They loved their SD.

Also, is Weaver and Poje about to lose their spot as the team to win this season's world championship?? As unfortunate as it is to say, I feel like they are about to receive the Shibutani treatment at GPF (i.e. dump them)

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I don't see that at all. They scored lower at NHK (relative to Chock & Bates) because of their TES levels. They still got 52+ PCS in the FS. It's more that judges have boosted Chock & Bates.

I think papadakis/cizeron is going to be the spoiler here and ilinyk/zhigsndhin is going to get boost from the audience for the SD since they are the only team who captured the spanish flair but won't medal because of a weak FD

GF2445 said:

Ilinykh and Zhiganshin do not deserve to be at the GPF but they did what they need to do and some teams fell by the wayside so they got their spot.

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What do you mean with "they do not deserve to be at the GPF"? Did they steal that spot from someone? I thought not!
On the contrary, they should've been placed 3rd in China instead of C&L. Nevertheless, you earn your spot based on two competition. Coomes and Buckland failed to do that, with the door wide open for them.
So I really don't understand your comment.

If anything, I/Z had a poor first GP but then came back much stronger at Rostelecom to solidify their spot.

I'd love to see P/C, G/P and one between W/P (those programs though...) and I/Z (but only becasue of Elena, not sold on this couple yet) on the podium.
And as much as this season has been quite unpredictable so far this is just a bit too much idealistic

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

If anything, I/Z had a poor first GP but then came back much stronger at Rostelecom to solidify their spot.

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Even more amazing since they have only been together 6 months. I am rooting for this team - I think they have great promise. So glad they made GPF on their first year together!

Kitt said:

Even more amazing since they have only been together 6 months. I am rooting for this team - I think they have great promise. So glad they made GPF on their first year together!

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They are so fantastic. I'm rooting for them too.
I find this team the most interesting of the six to qualify.

Well it's a toss-up with new teams. Sometimes after re-pairing you get a Volosozhar/Trankov or an Ilinykh/Zhighanshin... And other times you get a Bazarova/Deputat or Sinitsina/Katsalapov, much to the chagrin of certain posters who hyped them up.