State of Russian Ladies in skating: 2014-15 Season

No doubt that Russian ladies will be the force to deal with during this quad. Even though economy prospects are sort of gloomy the momentum is here and it will be enough till 2022. I am saying that because the last big crisis here happened in 1998 and we were fine until Turin in 2006 after which there were several difficult years and a big flop in Vancouver before the new resurrection....

There is a lot already elsewhere at GS on the topic. I will try to avoid praises and comparisons and feed up the thread with the news and analysis that I could find in the Russian press. Sorry that I will not be able to provide full translations still trying to give the essence.

Thanks for the thread, samkrut, I'll be following it.

Yes, great idea for a thread - it will be interesting to follow the Russian ladies both in this season, and in the coming years. And any info from the Russian press will be vastly appreciated, samkrut - and thanks for starting the thread!

:thumbsup:

I am looking forward to seeing them throughout the season. The field is becoming so large and they are a force to be dealt with, as Sam mentioned above. I only wish I had the time to go to Russian Nats this year!

Are there any wunderkinds around 11 or 12 that will be age eligible for 2018 that scream potential Olympian that you'd recommend following now to watch their growth? Last year someone posted a video of a 10 or 11 y/o with all the jumps and she had a nice presence. I forget her name. It's amazing the depth in ladies Russia now has.

I hope we'll see some analysis on how they stack up with each other -- maybe some stats? You all know how much I love them stats!

I am trying to think about your timeline. It kinda makes sense. The ladies that will be 15-18 in 2022 are 7-10 years old now. So likely they have already started skating and have been for a few years and likely have already shown promise. They got to skate long enough to prove they are a worthy investment for lack of a better way to put it.

But when a bad economy starts, fewer kids get to do stuff. So as the years pass fewer will start, and fewer will be able to stick with it enough to stand out. The talented five year olds out there, are likely young enough that parents are more easily able to think "its not going to happen too many variables" and not pursue it the same way.

Or maybe I am completely wrong and off about the economy and if so please tell me so. At any rate It does sorta make sens that there would be success for a few years after an economic collapse due to the lingering athletes who got to start training in better times.

I find how things cycle like this so interesting.

So far we have the baby trio for 2022 (Nugamova, Gubanova and Tsurskaya), so I'd be more worried for 2026. Of course, for a lady to peak around that time she would be about 4 or 5 (my bet would be girls born in 2006 and 2010, Olympic years. When figure skating is over the news, some parents may wonder how nice it would be if their kids became Olympians). If born in 2006, they'd be 8 now, so yeah, probably landing doubles. If born in 2010, tying their skates and skating backwards.

Honestly, I'm not really worried. When I wonder about which girls will keep up in each Olympic cycle, this is what I think:

Current one: Yulia dominates. Elena shows promise, but I'm not sure about her jumps, and Pogo tries to earn her spot. I think Adelina probably will retire during this cycle. Next year, the promising 4 battle for their own spots (I see Serafima and Evgenia ahead of Sasha and Maria, but the latter two were injuried).
After 2018: Some of the current crop will retire because of the next wave of boomers. I can see Yulia retiring after another medal (or medals, considering Teams). At least one girl would be from the wonderful 4. Once ellegible, baby trio will dominate.
After 2012: Too soon to tell.

PS: This is something to be discussed in another thread, but although I agree that the minimum age for seniors is 15, I think the minimum age for juniors should be lowered to 11 in order to show more talented skaters and prepare them better for international competitions.

Short Program scores
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 67.41 (Skate America)
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 67.05 (Finlandia Trophy)
Alena Leonova 66.72 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Serafima Sakhanovich 66.58 (JGP Ljublijana Cup)
Elena Radionova 65.57 (Skate America)
Anna Pogorilaya 65.28 (Skate Canada)
Elizaveta Tuktamyseva 64.94 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
Alena Leonova 62.54 (Skate Canada)
Evgenia Medvedeva 61.12 (JGP Courchvel)
Maria Sotskova 58.48 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Serafima Sakhanovich 56.03 (JGP Nagoya TV Cup)
Evgenia Medvedeva 55.92 (JGP Czech Skate)
Elizaveta Iushenko 54.41 (JGP Czech Skate)
Alsu Kaiumoa 52.49 (JGP Ljublijana Cup)
Alexandra Proklova 52.89 (JGP Pokal der Baluen Schwerter)
Maria Sotskova 52.06 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Elizaveta Iushenko 51.67 (JGP Pokal der Baluen Schwerter)
Alexandra Proklova 51.30 (JGP Croatia Cup)
Diana Pervushkina 47.50 (JGP Nagoya TV Cup)
Alsu Kaiumova 51.09 (JGP Tallinn Cup)
Maria Artemieva 47.73 (Finlandia Trophy)


Included JGP, GP and Challenger Series scores.

Worth noting Serafima is the only Russian lady to break 40 in TES (40.28, I believe at JGP Ljublijana Cup).

Thank you, Mrs P! Think how recently it was that one would never think Liza would have the top SP scores - true, Julia and Adelina have yet to skate; but even so, this is such progress for Liza, and a cheering thought.

LRK said:

Thank you, Mrs P! Think how recently it was that one would never think Liza would have the top SP scores - true, Julia and Adelina have yet to skate; but even so, this is such progress for Liza, and a cheering thought.

Click to expand...

True! This is extremely positive news for Liza, and even Leonova too! I don't think anyone would have expected them to both have SP scores higher than Radionova at this point.

Mrs. P said:

Worth noting Serafima is the only Russian lady to break 40 in TES (40.28, I believe at JGP Ljublijana Cup).

Click to expand...

That is a huge score; not even Adelina, Yuna, or Yulia (Team) achieved that technical score with their clean skates in Sochi.

There are three different goups. Those who compete at GP (15+), those who competed at JGP (14-15 and some more), and those who are younger.

The senior group this season is lead by Olympic champions Lipnitskaia and Sotnikova who are yet to start competing internationally. The key uncertainties with them were if Yulia had the long program and master the new boots and if Adelina were successful to overcome the ankle injury. As for the former, I never believed it was serious enough. Well, we will see very soon. I understand almost everyone including me bet on her win in CoC. As for the latter, it is not clear. I read the rumors on the Russian boards that the injury was just a pretext and she cannot motivate herself any longer. In her interview on Monday she said that she wants to skate very much but the ankle still hurts and she is still tired from the last season. http://www.sovsport.ru/gazeta/article-item/757803 I was surprised indeed to find out that there are 2 fighting camps on the Russian boards of Yulia's and Adelina's fans. They still compare their skating at the Russian nationals and Europe last year and argue who was overscored when.

The big question though is who will have the third spot if both Yulia and Adelina deliver, Elena, Liza or Anna? In theory Liza should be the one. If she changes her combo in SP to 3Lz-3T and perform all the necessary triples she can have about 70 in SP and about 135 in LP with slightly better pcs. There is no info, though, on any changes in layout. In her latest interview yesterday she just said that the back does not bother her any longer and she is ready for action. She was very cautious (may be she is superstitious). She said that the key start is nationals in Sochi but when asked what place she is thinking of she replied that she does not think of places but rather she wants to skate nicely for herself and the public. http://www.sportsdaily.ru/articles/...izaveta-tuktamyisheva-na-ldu-net-druzey-62629

Anna Pogorilaya who just won SC does admit to have the back problems. Her coach says that they were very pleased to win because after JO they were at loss when Anna had 9 points less than Satoko with just one bad axel. They did not know how to close this gap. The reality proved to be not that bad and even with some issues with rotations and landings (which she and her coach admit) she managed to get 191. If she polishes the elements and gets some pcs boost she is capable of scoring in 200 - 205 range at Europeans or Worlds provided that she gets there. Her issues are that she is not ready to fully dedicate herself to FS - she wants to enter University next summer and her back. I think we can lose her if the Federation does not send her to any of the big events. http://www.sovsport.ru/gazeta/article-item/757803


Elena Radionova is apparently number 3 as she beat Anna with about 14 point margin in Japan, beat her indirectly during first GP events with 195 vs. 191. She has lovely personality, indeed. But I cannot start admiring her skating yet which may be begins with her posture. Last week she gave an interview where she complained a bit about the jet lag (and reverse jet lag) but said that now everything is OK. http://rsport.ru/figure_skating/20141101/785136345.html Apparently she does not have either health or boot issues - looking at her brings the impression that she has no issues in principle. With polishing up her programs (like lutz landing) she could aim at 205 - 210 this season.

StitchMonkey said:

Or maybe I am completely wrong and off about the economy and if so please tell me so. At any rate It does sorta make sens that there would be success for a few years after an economic collapse due to the lingering athletes who got to start training in better times.

I find how things cycle like this so interesting.

Click to expand...

No one knows the future but people are quite nervous now in Moscow. The dollar hit 45 yesterday - the rumors are 50 and even 60. With so much depending on imports it means that people will start to save on expenses. A recent TV program (it is only in Russian) said that keeping a child at FS costs about 300000 rubles ($8,000) per year. This might become too big an expenditure for most parents quite soon. But those who are 8+ and show promise will be supported by the Federation. Nugumanova started to land triples at 8. The issue may be the influx of 4-8 year old kids for the years to come.

[email protected] said:

The senior group this season is lead by Olympic champions Lipnitskaia and Sotnikova who are yet to start competing internationally. The key uncertainties with them were if Yulia had the long program and master the new boots and if Adelina were successful to overcome the ankle injury. As for the former, I never believed it was serious enough. Well, we will see very soon. I understand almost everyone including me bet on her win in CoC. As for the latter, it is not clear. I read the rumors on the Russian boards that the injury was just a pretext and she cannot motivate herself any longer. In her interview on Monday she said that she wants to skate very much but the ankle still hurts and she is still tired from the last season.

Click to expand...

It doesn't surprise me to hear about Adelina. I think it would be very difficult to be motivated for GP events when you already won the OGM. Yuna Kim was the first skater to compete in a second Olympics after winning since Katarina Witt, and Yuna competed in exactly 0 GP events between Vancouver and Sochi. Maybe Adelina can prolong her career by competing only in major events and using Yuna's strategy of competing in a small event to earn a qualifying score. If not, I can easily see her moving on like Kristi, Oksana, Tara, Sarah, and Shizuka.

drivingmissdaisy said:

It doesn't surprise me to hear about Adelina. I think it would be very difficult to be motivated for GP events when you already won the OGM. Yuna Kim was the first skater to compete in a second Olympics after winning since Katarina Witt, and Yuna competed in exactly 0 GP events between Vancouver and Sochi. Maybe Adelina can prolong her career by competing only in major events and using Yuna's strategy of competing in a small event to earn a qualifying score. If not, I can easily see her moving on like Kristi, Oksana, Tara, Sarah, and Shizuka.

Click to expand...

Of course, but there are other titles to win. She did mention that she wanted to win Worlds, right? Maybe she could see the GP events as a way to practice and calculate her chances. Perhaps she could set herself the task of winning the 6 GP events, being GPF champion, Europeans... Lots of titles yet to be achieved. Jumping from a small competition straight to Worlds sounds a bit risky.

drivingmissdaisy said:

It doesn't surprise me to hear about Adelina. I think it would be very difficult to be motivated for GP events when you already won the OGM. Yuna Kim was the first skater to compete in a second Olympics after winning since Katarina Witt, and Yuna competed in exactly 0 GP events between Vancouver and Sochi. Maybe Adelina can prolong her career by competing only in major events and using Yuna's strategy of competing in a small event to earn a qualifying score. If not, I can easily see her moving on like Kristi, Oksana, Tara, Sarah, and Shizuka.

Click to expand...

How would this work in Adelina's situation? I am asking as I don't know everything about how a skater is chosen to go to major events. It is my understanding that Yuna Kim was able to do this because there really wasn't anyone to challenge her in South Korea. Could you please explain how Adelina would do this? What is considered a small event to qualify at? Just recently got into figure skating sorry for my noobness.

stryke said:

How would this work in Adelina's situation? I am asking as I don't know everything about how a skater is chosen to go to major events. It is my understanding that Yuna Kim was able to do this because there really wasn't anyone to challenge her in South Korea. Could you please explain how Adelina would do this? What is considered a small event to qualify at? Just recently got into figure skating sorry for my noobness.

Click to expand...

I believe there are senior B/Challenger series that you can use as qualifying events. The issue is more how the Russian federation will treat it. If she skates well at nationals, they are free to send her wherever they want that she is qualified for. That may mean she only does Worlds for instance. In reality, a Russian skater that has proven to be able to beat people in the grand prix may be seen as a safer bet and sent over her.

It would be tough. She would have to skate really well at nationals and keep herself qualified for WC's. I'm not sure about how that works TBH but you have to satisfy certain scoring requirements to be eligible for WC. She'd probably have to do nationals, maybe euros if the fed would send her or a senior B like golden spin to remain eligible. It is much easier to do this in a smaller country with less talent obviously where you don't always have to look over your shoulder to see who is trying to take your spot.

"State of Russian Ladies in skating: 2014-15 Season" may as well be called "State of Ladies skating: 2014-2015", LOL.

Gold and Silver at Worlds will be between Lipnitskaia and Sotnikova.
Bronze will go to either Radionova or Pogorilaya and it will be decided long before Worlds actually happens, at Russian Nationals.