Kirsten Moore-Towers vs Dylan Moscovitch: 2015 Skate Canada Challenge

nevergonnadance said:

.... I think people do "get" that she and Michael Marinaro intend to establish themselves in this current cycle so when 2018 arrives, they step into No. 1 in Canada. What's questioned are some of the assumptions/presumptions behind that plan. Pairs teams in the past and present have established themselves at the top in a single cycle. That can happen rapidly from anywhere. ...

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But M-T herself and Moscovitch were not successful in establishing themselves at the top in a single cycle.

So it is no wonder that she apparently does not share your assumptions/presumptions and that starting in 2018 with a new partner would seem risky to her.

nevergonnadance said:

... If this team's real goal is 2018-2022, as long as the skaters in front of them remain older and intending to retire in 2018, the team could even spend this cycle as No. 3, and still move into No. 1 in Canada after 2018 Olympics, because Dylan, along with DR, will have retired by 2018. ...

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Exactly. :agree: That's the whole point.

I think one of the reasons that people are a bit puzzled about looking at things so far into the future is that M-T/M 1.0 were actually a team who achieved success very quickly and almost out of nowhere. In just their second season together, they made the GP final (and she was just 17 at the time) and also won Nationals that season. So it seems a bit odd to be looking so far ahead and seemingly without accounting for other up and coming young teams.

Still, she has made her decision, and I'm sure she put a lot of thought into it. It just seems a bit odd from the outside looking in.

golden411 said:

But M-T herself and Moscovitch were not successful in establishing themselves at the top in a single cycle.
So it is no wonder that she apparently does not share your assumptions/presumptions and that starting in 2018 with a new partner would seem risky to her.

Exactly. :agree: That's the whole point.

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They were fourth in the world twice, that's quite an accomplishment. If they had added difficulties to their programs, they could have passed D/R eventually, they almost did a few times. I remember last season they said they were not adding new elements because they were focusing on consistency for the Olympic season. This year, they could have worked on more difficult throws, add more transitions, etc. With Michael, she's doing the exact same elements as with Dylan, even in the same order in the program. She's staying in her comfort zone, same elements, same choreographer, same type of programs. That's not how you evolve and become a champion, and if it didn't work with Dylan like you said to establish themselves as a top pair, how is it supposed to work with someone new, who is not even on the same level? He might get there, but it will take some time.

I guess that's why her decision is hard to understand, there are no guarantees that she will have the same results with Michael - sometimes experience is better than youth. You can't just swap a partner for a younger less talented one and expect the same results. But if like you're saying her goal is just to wait until 2018 when everyone retires, to be Canada's no 1, that I can understand. But even then that's not taking into account the new teams that might come along. S/B and P/W are even younger and show lots of promise. Anyway, that's her decision, her career.

Originally Posted by nevergonnadance View Post
... If this team's real goal is 2018-2022, as long as the skaters in front of them remain older and intending to retire in 2018, the team could even spend this cycle as No. 3, and still move into No. 1 in Canada after 2018 Olympics, because Dylan, along with DR, will have retired by 2018. ...

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Originally Posted by golden411
Exactly. That's the whole point.

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I'm glad I got the point. And so you can see why people scratch their heads. The assumptions. Will this really be how it is over the next three years? The strategy is built on expecting that anybody who could challenge them retires, leaving the field clear for them to step in? Nobody new shows up to spoil the party?

As explained, Moore Towers Marinaro's game plan seems to rest on their seven-year schedule while the rest of the Canadian pairs scene remains somewhat static for their convenience. What if one of those rapid developers who doesn't feel they have all the time in the world shows up and jumps the queue in 2018-2022? As I said, even Lubov could pair up again in 2018 and have rapid success.

So, as assured as reaching the top in 2018-2022 may be for this team, I'm curious about their goals, benchmarks and ambitions for this quad.

Now that I think of it, it's weird that one of the objections about Moore Towers Moscovitch is they "didn't" establish themselves at the top in a single cycle, so she changed her partner with a game plan of establishing herself at the top in two cycles. What convinces them it will happen in 2018-2022 if it doesn't in 2014-2018? She was sure it wouldn't happen in 2014-2018 cause it didn't in 2010-2014. Retirement? That would explain some of the confusion/questions about, not the partner change as such, but the reasons they gave. It can come off as "Got me a warm body now, so when 2018 comes, I'm set to go, because nothing's going to change between now and then." By no means do I assume this is the complete thought process. But we can only deal with what we're told.

To clarify: the following paragraph is not directed to golden411 in particular:
Finally, I don't get this concept that skaters who may accomplish some high goals in 2014-2018 are less better off than skaters who target 2018-2022 instead. One Olympic cycle isn't more valuable than another. There's been - at least she'll still be skating seven years from now.

If that's where golden thought I was taking what was said out of context, I do not mean to pretend s/he, in particular, said this. It's been part of the overall discussion on this subject.

I don't think starting in 2018 is risky per se. As a lot of people have been saying, prioritizing 2022 with this new partner, at their ages, over this present cycle, with him or any other partner, is confusing, considering that the landscape can change really rapidly in pairs. I don't think people are adamant she should have prioritized 2018 with Dylan. It's why isn't she prioritizing 2014-2018 with Mike.

nevergonnadance said:

Good. I'm glad I got the point. And so you can see why people scratch their heads over this. Is that really going to be the state of affairs over the next three years? The entire game plan rests on the assumption that in 2018, everybody who could challenge them retires, leaving the field clear for them to step in? ...

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You must be mighty proud of yourself for twisting my words out of context.

And for convincing me to give up on having a sensible conversation with you.

golden411 said:

You must be mighty proud of yourself for twisting my words out of context.

And for convincing me to give up on having a sensible conversation with you.

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What did I take out of context? You affirmed with thumbs up that she switched partners to be in a position to become number one when others retired. I affirmed in a subsequent post (that I'm clarifying) that this is exactly what has been prompting the questions and the puzzlement.

Even if all the major pairs retired by the next Olympics, there are still the young Chinese pairs and Russian pairs who can continue to challenge them. Morozov/Tarasova and Sui/Han both beat MT/M at Skate Canada; both can likely skate until 2022 as well. I highly doubt any competitive figure skater wants competition to die down after a cycle, I think they want to walk away knowing they truly deserved that podium finish. Kirsten wants to skate to her full potential regardless of 2018 or 2022. Currently that is not happening and I didn't expect it to happen in one season.

Her goals might be long term, but she certainly seemed disapointed with their scores at Skate Canada, like she expected something similar to what she was getting with Dylan. And their coach seems to expect them to get results rapidly.

This season, Wirtz has shifted his attention to a new pairs team comprised of Moore-Towers and her latest partner, Michael Marinaro.

"Obviously, the past is great to look at. But the future with these two 22-year-olds is amazing," says Wirtz, 44. "They are spectacular. They are going to be the hype. They've got it all."

Moore-Towers and Marinaro are poised for a possible podium finish at this weekend's international event in Bordeaux, France, the Trophee Eric Bompard, Wirtz says.

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http://www.guelphmercury.com/sports-story/5145151-figure-skating-coach-looks-to-the-future/

We may never know why Kirsten decided to dump Dylan.

I'm just happy to follow the development of a pair I enjoy watching. (Luba/Dylan)

nevergonnadance said:

I'll wager 2018 is the focus of every elite figure skater in the senior division except for, we're told, Moore Towers Marinaro. Certainly the focus of the skaters who are now 22! It's the juniors and novices that are looking at 2022, except for Moore Towers Marinaro. Kirsten's hierarchy of priorities is her business, but Lubov is hardly focusing on 2018 because she lacks Kirsten's luxury of focusing on 2022! She's also young. If she wants to focus on 2022 after 2018, she can get herself a new partner in 2018 and start focusing on 2022 then, as many successful skaters have done before her, our reigning Olympic champions but one example. Success in this quad is just as much an achievement for any skater as hypothetical success in the next.

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I'm not saying Kirsten does not have interim 2018 short term goals with Michael. I am saying Kirsten's ultimate goals seem to require "long term" thinking/focus which she believed dictated the need for a new partner "now". Whether that urgency is true or not is opinion. That is a freedom Luba does not currently have ie. being able to switch partners now if that is what she determines would be best for her long term goals (if any). Luba "must" focus on 2018 with Dylan. What is she going to do? Dump Dylan for a long term partner, and risk the fallout from irate fans and Skate Canada? I am not saying she would do that, or is even considering it. At this point, I think Luba is just happy to be back on the competition ice with an elite partner. Their success is a bonus, however relatively short it may be. Luba will refocus with a new partner after 2018. Unlike Kirsten, she has no choice.

lyndichee said:

Even if all the major pairs retired by the next Olympics, there are still the young Chinese pairs and Russian pairs who can continue to challenge them. Morozov/Tarasova and Sui/Han both beat MT/M at Skate Canada; both can likely skate until 2022 as well. I highly doubt any competitive figure skater wants competition to die down after a cycle, I think they want to walk away knowing they truly deserved that podium finish. Kirsten wants to skate to her full potential regardless of 2018 or 2022. Currently that is not happening and I didn't expect it to happen in one season.

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I think they were discussing #1 in Canada, not necessarily the World.

centerpt1 said:

We may never know why Kirsten decided to dump Dylan.

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True.

However as I see it, there are 5 possible reasons for Kirsten's decision. (please add to the list if I have missed any)...

1) Kirsten is incapable of logical thinking.
I don't believe anybody thinks Kirsten is dumb, or is making her decisions with one of these. She likely has given her plans plenty of thought before acting. Perhaps also consulting with her coaches, etal.

2) Kirsten just wanted to skate longer for the sake of skating, because she loves it.
This option does not completely fit the facts. If all Kirsten wanted is someone to skate with over the long haul, why couldn't
she skate with Dylan until 2018, then skate with another partner afterwards? Why the urgency to split now and risk hurt feelings with Dylan?

3) Kirsten split with Dylan for personal reasons, and the two Olympic cycle was just an excuse to hide the truth.
A possibility in theory, but I suspect people are unable to point out any indicators that there had been internal issues between them. The decision for the split seem to come unexpectedly to everyone including Dylan.

4) Kirsten does not think Dylan has the talent to take her to the next level, but Michael does.
This option may fit the facts regarding the timing of the split. However, I think most people would seriously argue the truth of the logic (unless there is something she knows, which we fans do not).

5) Kirsten is not certain she can reach her ultimate goals by 2018, but certainly would be happy if she did.
In my opinion, this option fit the facts best. It explains both the need and timing for the split. Clearly Kirsten must be focused beyond 2018 for her ultimate long term goals, otherwise why is she insisting on a two Olympic cycle.

Certainly there are risks. Teams with no names rising from nowhere to challenge Kirsten's future plans. However, she can not live in fear of the "what if" or "maybe". Otherwise, she may as well have given up and taken the defeatist route. From what I have seen of many athletes, they think positive, and trust that hard work, motivation, determination, and good coaching will help get them to their destination. Sometimes it does, sometimes it does not. That is the gamble they all must take.

It is nice to know that they seem supportive of each other's endeavours with their new partners. It won't be pretty on competition day, but at the end of the day it'd be nice if they all qualify for international events and attend together as colleagues and friends.

centerpt1 said:

We may never know why Kirsten decided to dump Dylan.

I'm just happy to follow the development of a pair I enjoy watching. (Luba/Dylan)

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I really really like Luba and Dylan. Lovely qualities and they're already doing some very neat original moves, like that upside down lift. I know everyone's thinking Seguin/Bilodeau is the likely #2, but I/M is my pick right now, and they have greater potential to place higher at Worlds at this point in my opinion. IMO, it should be D/R and I/M going to Senior Worlds, and S/B going to Junior Worlds (unless M-T/Mar ends up pulling ahead of I/M). I mean, with a lift error and only a double twist, that's already some points they can easily get back on the table. I/M with a perfect skate could certainly clear 130.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I really really like Luba and Dylan. Lovely qualities and they're already doing some very neat original moves, like that upside down lift. I know everyone's thinking Seguin/Bilodeau is the likely #2, but I/M is my pick right now, and they have greater potential to place higher at Worlds at this point in my opinion. IMO, it should be D/R and I/M going to Senior Worlds, and S/B going to Junior Worlds (unless M-T/Mar ends up pulling ahead of I/M). I mean, with a lift error and only a double twist, that's already some points they can easily get back on the table. I/M with a perfect skate could certainly clear 130.

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Canada has three entries for pairs at Worlds. I suspect it'll be D/R and I/M for the first two spots and either S/B or MT/M for the third. It's just hard to know where S/B will fit in given they've been skating in juniors. They could be really impressive and wind up second (slim chance IMO) or they could be fourth. In any event, it should be interesting, and gives Canada four potentially strong pairs.

peg said:

Canada has three entries for pairs at Worlds. I suspect it'll be D/R and I/M for the first two spots and either S/B or MT/M for the third. It's just hard to know where S/B will fit in given they've been skating in juniors. They could be really impressive and wind up second (slim chance IMO) or they could be fourth. In any event, it should be interesting, and gives Canada four potentially strong pairs.

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Ah, right right. It could be S/B going to senior Worlds, but as we saw with Nam at Worlds last year, it helped accelerate his stock moreso than if he had just competed at junior Worlds again. Winning the Junior World title though would give S/B a huge confidence boost and of course, it's hard to ignore JW Champions once they start on the GP circuit.

Then again, Skate Canada will want to still give M-T a shot at Worlds. They have shown excellent improvement at the Challenge, if their GP season was a big bust. It might have been a very smart move for I/M to hold off on the GP season and get their ducks in order before hitting the big stages.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Ah, right right. It could be S/B going to senior Worlds, but as we saw with Nam at Worlds last year, it helped accelerate his stock moreso than if he had just competed at junior Worlds again. Winning the Junior World title though would give S/B a huge confidence boost and of course, it's hard to ignore JW Champions once they start on the GP circuit.

Then again, Skate Canada will want to still give M-T a shot at Worlds. They have shown excellent improvement at the Challenge, if their GP season was a big bust. It might have been a very smart move for I/M to hold off on the GP season and get their ducks in order before hitting the big stages.

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They had no choice but to hold off. Luba had not been released at that point and so they were not eligible to compete on the GP circuit.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Ah, right right. It could be S/B going to senior Worlds, but as we saw with Nam at Worlds last year, it helped accelerate his stock moreso than if he had just competed at junior Worlds again. Winning the Junior World title though would give S/B a huge confidence boost and of course, it's hard to ignore JW Champions once they start on the GP circuit.

Then again, Skate Canada will want to still give M-T a shot at Worlds.

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Yup, there's a valid argument to be made for both scenarios. It's going to be interesting.

Well I just finished watching the junior Grand Prix pairs competition and I was very impressed with the Canadian pair that won. I'm tempted to drive to Kingston for the pairs competition at nationals!!! It should be an interesting battle for second and third place.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Then again, Skate Canada will want to still give M-T a shot at Worlds. They have shown excellent improvement at the Challenge, if their GP season was a big bust. It might have been a very smart move for I/M to hold off on the GP season and get their ducks in order before hitting the big stages.

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That's just it – Skate Canada appears to have been supporting MT-M, so they'll want to see the payoff on their investment. In both Canada and the U.S., Nationals almost always seems to be a different game than the fall events. I really like what I've seen so far from I-M, but I want to see how interested Skate Canada is in them before I think too much about their international prospects.

It remains to be seen how interested Skate Canada may be, but the fact that TSN/CTV are apparently doing a feature on this team (per their facebooks) bodes well. This type of publicity is usually done with the cooperation of Skate Canada, I think.