Grand Prix Speculation 2015-2016 | Golden Skate

Grand Prix Speculation 2015-2016

invisiblespiral

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Well, we need something to do in the off-season.... so, we have 6 events, 4 disciplines, and 288 spots to fill with skaters! My thoughts to come later....
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Well, we need something to do in the off-season.... so, we have 6 events, 4 disciplines, and 288 spots to fill with skaters! My thoughts to come later....

In 2014, each GP had slots for twelve men; twelve ladies; eight dance couples, eight pairs.

If the numbers remain the same for 2015, the total number of slots to fill is 240, by my arithmetic.
 

invisiblespiral

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
In 2014, each GP had slots for twelve men; twelve ladies; eight dance couples, eight pairs.

If the numbers remain the same for 2015, the total number of slots to fill is 240, by my arithmetic.

Oh, I'm sorry, I though it was 12 each.... between this and April Fool's Day... :slink:
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
Oh, is it that time already? :D

Let's see:

Josh: NHK (again, to exorcise some demons), and COR (more demon exorcising)

Jason: TEB (because they loved him!) and Skate Canada (because they haven't seen him yet!)

Max: Skate America (he needs some loving on the home front), and NHK

Artur: I guess the best I can hope for here is the host pick for COR

Liza: COR + NHK (the Japanese fans love her!)
 

Interspectator

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
Oh, is it that time already? :D

Let's see:

Josh: NHK (again, to exorcise some demons), and COR (more demon exorcising)

Jason: TEB (because they loved him!) and Skate Canada (because they haven't seen him yet!)

Max: Skate America (he needs some loving on the home front), and NHK

Artur: I guess the best I can hope for here is the host pick for COR

Liza: COR + NHK (the Japanese fans love her!)

I actually think the French may appreciate Josh's style. How about TEB for Josh?
 

cheerknithanson

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Country
United-States
So you guys do this? You try to think who's going to skate where? Sorry, like my profile says, I've only been on this forum for less than a year....
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The men (based on last year's announcement) = 60 spots total

Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots guaranteed = 24 spots)
1. Javier Fernandez, ESP
2. Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN
3. Denis Ten, KAZ
4. Jason Brown, USA
5. Nam Nguyen, CAN
6. Misha Ge, UZE
---- skaters above this line are seeded
7. Maxim Kovtun, RUS
8. Adam Rippon, USA
9. Florent Amodio, FRA
10. Han Yan, CHN
11. Joshua Farris, USA
12. Takahiko Kozuka, JPN

Top 24 Season's Best Scores (1 spot guaranteed = 12 spots)
7. Daisuke Murakami, JPN
8. Shoma Uno, JPN
9. Takahito Mura, JPN
10. Sergei Voronov, RUS
14. Michal Brezina, CZE
15. Max Aaron, USA
17. Richard Dornbush, USA
18. Konstantin Menshov, RUS
19. Stephen Carriere , USA
20. Alexander Petrov, RUS
22. Boyang Jin, CHN
23. Jeremy Abbott, USA

Top 24 World's Ranking (1 spot guaranteed = 3 spots) Pre-scrubbing, so this list may change)
5. Patrick Chan, CAN
22. Peter Liebers, GER
23. Adian Pitkeev, RUS

World Junior Championships medalists (1 spot guaranteed)
3. Sota Yamamoto (if he moves up to seniors), JPN

Total spots guaranteed = 28/60 spots
Country breakdown:
USA 7
JPN 6
RUS 4
CAN 2
CHN 2
ESP 1
KAZ 1
UZE 1
FRA 1
CZE 1
GER 1


Spots up for grabs 32/60
- Top 24 WR/SB will likely get a second spot (15 spots approx)
- Host picks (18 spots; some of the skaters above may get these spots)
USA (currently in International Selection Pool, but not in above): Nathan Chen, Grant Hochestin, Alexander Johnson, Ross Miner, Jordan Moeller, Sean Rabbitt, Douglas Razzano
CAN: Kevin Reynolds, Liam Firus, Elladj Balde, Roman Sadovsky
FRA: Chafik Besseghier, Simon Hocquaux,
CHN: Yi Wang, Nan Song, He Zhang
RUS: Artur Gachinski, Moris Kvitelashvili,
JPN: Keiji Tanaka, Ryuju Hino Hiroaki Sato

(The rest of you int he world can fill in other prospective host picks; this were my best guesses)

Prospective picks outside the hosts:
Alexei Bychenko, ISR
Ronald Lam, HKG
Michael Christian Martinez, PHI
Ivan Righini, ITA,
Jin Seo Kim, KOR
June Hyong Lee, KOR
Deniss Vasiljevs, LAT
 

Interspectator

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 25, 2012
The real question is, which front-runner will Patrick Chan be paired up against early in the season?
2014 Chan vs Hanyu was pretty epic. They went against each other 5 times that season!
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The real question is, which front-runner will Patrick Chan be paired up against early in the season?
2014 Chan vs Hanyu was pretty epic. They went against each other 5 times that season!

Patrick will likely get Skate Canada (though maybe Nam will too or maybe they will opt to send him elsewhere since he has two spots automatically, though I could see Skate Canada doing a double header, but that would be a "waste" (from a logistical standpoint) as that would leave just one spot for a bunch of guys who don't qualify for GP spots otherwise.

I'm going to take a guess at my seeded skater picks

Skate America: Denis Ten (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Skate Canada: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen or Misha Ge (4-6)
Cup of China: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Misha Ge or Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup: Denis Ten (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
NHK Trophy: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)

I think Patrick will get Skate Canada and Trophee Eric Bompard, like he did in 2013.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The Ladies

Top 12 (24 spots)
1. Elizaveta Tuktamyseva, RUS
2. Satoko Miyahara, JPN
3. Elena Radionova, RUS
4. Gracie Gold, USA
5. Ashley Wagner, USA
6. Rika Hongo, JPN
----
7. Kanako Murakami, JPN
8. Polina Edmunds, USA
9. Zijun Li, CHN
10. Mae Bernice Meite, FRA
11. Alaine Chartrand, CAN
12. So Youn Park, KOR

Top 24 SB (11 spots)
4. Evgenia Medvedeva, RUS
5. Serafima Sakhanovich, RUS
6. Anna Pogorilaya, RUS
9. Alena Leonova, RUS
11. Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS
15. Maria Sotskova, RUS (if she moves up)
17. Samantha Cesario, USA
18. Courtney Hicks, USA
19. Elizabet Tursynbaeva, KAZ (if she moves up)
20. Yuka Nagai, JPN (if she moves up)
23. Hannah Miller, USA

Top 24 WR (5 spots)
2. Mao Asada, JPN (if she returns)
9. Adelina Sotnikova, RUS
15. Viktoria Helgesson, SWE
19. Haruka Imai, JPN
21. Valentina Marchei, ITA (if she returns)
22. Joshi Helgesson, SWE

Total spots guranteed 40/60
County breakdown
RUS: 9 (max spots for each country is 18)
USA: 6
JPN: 5
SWE 2
CHN: 1
CAN 1
KOR: 1
KAZ: 1
ITA: 1


Spots up for grab 41/60

Host picks (up to 18 depending on how many picks are from above list)
USA: Mariah Bell, Ashley Cain, Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Angela Wang
CAN: Gabrielle Daleman, Veronik Mallet
CHN: ????
RUS: Maria Artemieva, Alexandria Proklova,
FRA: Lauren Lecavelier, Anais Ventard
JPN: Riona Kato, Kaori Sakamoto (if she moves up), Miyabi Oba

Other prospective picks
Kira Korpi, FIN
Da Bin Choi, KOR (if she moves up)
Elene Gedevanishvili, GEO
Angelina Kuchvaliska, LAT
Roberta Rodeghiero, ITA
Ivett Toth, HUN
Brooklee Han, AUS
Nicole Scott, GER
Nicole Rajicova, SVK

Seeded skaters placements (my guess)

Skate America - Satoko Miyahara (1-3), Ashley Wager (4-6)
Skate Canada - Elena Radionova (1-3), Gracie Gold (4-6)
Cup of China- Elizaveta Tuktamysehva (1-3), Rika Hongo (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup - Elena Radionova (1-3), Ashley Wagner (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard - Elizaveta Tuktamysehva (1-3), Rika Hongo (4-6)
NHK Trophy - Satoko Miyahara (1-3), Gracie Gold (4-6)
 
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4everchan

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Country
Martinique
mrs p you are always so informative... even when it comes to early speculation ;) cheerio!
 

StitchMonkey

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 31, 2014
So, I am curious. Why is everyone so sure Chan is coming back? Also, at what point would we start seeing evidence or rather start getting suspicious?
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
So, I am curious. Why is everyone so sure Chan is coming back? Also, at what point would we start seeing evidence or rather start getting suspicious?

He said he was going to. So I think he is.

Usually I don't take much stock into comeback announcements, but it really sounds like he wants to return and settle some unfinished business. It's not a "Maybe we will comeback" type feeling I get from Davis and White, for example.
 

StitchMonkey

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 31, 2014
He said he was going to. So I think he is.

I think people often say things with the best of intentions but change their mind. I see nothing wrong wit that, I think it is normal and healthy, so I tend to wait for evidence before believing comebacks. I was not asking from a "yeah right" stand point, but honestly i was kinda curious when it would be expected he would in full swing comeback training mode, or we can at least expect some more recent gossip.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
So you guys do this? You try to think who's going to skate where? Sorry, like my profile says, I've only been on this forum for less than a year....

Oh yes, this is the fun time of the season where we guess who will get what Grand Prix, how each skater will go during the season, and even what music they'll skate to.
 

kresslia

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
I think people often say things with the best of intentions but change their mind. I see nothing wrong wit that, I think it is normal and healthy, so I tend to wait for evidence before believing comebacks. I was not asking from a "yeah right" stand point, but honestly i was kinda curious when it would be expected he would in full swing comeback training mode, or we can at least expect some more recent gossip.
No.. he honestly seems serious. He was on TV a couple weeks ago even giving a bit of a timeline. He's said a few times how he intends to come back, said it at Canadian Nationals too.

It's Patrick, he's never gonna let go of that silver medal. I easily see him coming back.
 

zebobes

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 29, 2012
Patrick will likely get Skate Canada (though maybe Nam will too or maybe they will opt to send him elsewhere since he has two spots automatically, though I could see Skate Canada doing a double header, but that would be a "waste" (from a logistical standpoint) as that would leave just one spot for a bunch of guys who don't qualify for GP spots otherwise.

I'm going to take a guess at my seeded skater picks

Skate America: Denis Ten (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Skate Canada: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen or Misha Ge (4-6)
Cup of China: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Misha Ge or Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup: Denis Ten (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
NHK Trophy: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)

I think Patrick will get Skate Canada and Trophee Eric Bompard, like he did in 2013.

But, Skate Canada has had Virtue and Moir and Weaver and Poje both at Skate Canada, so I don't see why that would change. I also think that Misha Ge will try to get China, since China loves him so much, and Yuzuru will go to the US, to make the traveling from Toronto easier. My guess would be:

Skate America: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Skate Canada: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Cup of China: Denis Ten (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard: Denis Ten (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
NHK Trophy: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)

I also think that maybe Jason will go to TEB, so that he won't need to go against Yuzuru at both competitions. I think Nam will always be at a competition where either Javier or Yuzuru are, so that Brian Orser can cut down on how much he will need to travel. And then Javier usually goes to the Rostelecom Cup...

I realized I'm over thinking this, because I looked back at which competitions Yuzu goes to, and I realized that I don't really see a clear pattern there either. Maybe he's trying to win every Grand Prix? Looking at his schedule, he goes to a different Grand Prix every year, and he's only been going to NHK every other year. I think he will have to go to NHK this year though, because since so many Japanese men have retired, he will be the main draw. He has medaled at every grand prix so far, but he hasn't won Skate America, Canada, Cup of China, or Trophee Eric Bompard.
 
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