2015-16 Junior Predictions

Ice Dance · Aug 10, 2015

I think there is room for an upset on the national U.S. junior dance scene, which could obviously have repercussions internationally. And I'm not talking about the top, where I think M&C should have the goods to seal the deal if they do their job. If the Parsons have improved their presentation, I'm glad; but their presentation had a long way to go last season. Their strength, to me, last year was clearly technical. But Carreira & Ponomarenko and Lewis & Bye are up & coming wildcards. C&P are only in their second season together. New teams like that can come very far in a season. And Lewis & Bye way underperformed at Nationals last year, with a devastating fall. Then pulled off an upset and defeated the Parsons in a head to head at the Chesapeake Open to start off this season. I don't care how raw the programs were or what mistakes the Parsons made, you don't knock off the 4th place team from Junior Worlds with a 7th place national ranking unless you are the definition of a wildcard. P&B had a less than stellar Junior Worlds, then a fantastic debut at the Chesapeake Open. So . . . it's going to be interesting to watch at least these 5 teams develop throughout the season and see if a surprise or two changes the game.

Note: Personally, I prefer Vivian's presentation to Amber's.

Jammers · Aug 10, 2015

The depth in Ice Dance in the US is insane. With all these Junior teams ready to make the move up in the next couple years the future looks good for Ice Dance in the US.

aromaticchicken · Aug 10, 2015

It's going to rough for any to break through on the senior level though, since chock and bates and the shibutanis are all but a sure bet for 1-2 nationals podium, and h/d and h/b are vying for third. All four teams will likely be fighting for the 2018 team

cheerknithanson · Aug 10, 2015

aromaticchicken said:
It's going to rough for any to break through on the senior level though, since chock and bates and the shibutanis are all but a sure bet for 1-2 nationals podium, and h/d and h/b are vying for third. All four teams will likely be fighting for the 2018 team

You're probably right. And besides, both Quinn/McNamara and the Parsons are still VERY young and have plenty of time.

actualrealliveanna · Aug 10, 2015

Looking forward to seeing Serafima and Vivian Le! Serafima has always been a favorite of mine, and Vivian shows so much potential, I can't wait to see what she does! Also very interested to see what Polina Tsurskaya brings to the table. Also hoping to see the Parsons finally step on to that Junior Worlds podium!

Mrs. P · Aug 10, 2015

There will be a bottleneck in 2018, regardless though. Quinn Carpenter and Michael Parsons will age out of juniors after the 2016-2017 season, which means you'll have a bunch of teams competing in 2018 for just three Olympic spots. And I'd imagine that those teams will want to move up after this season anyway.

cheerknithanson · Aug 10, 2015

I know this is supposed to be about junior predictions, but who else hopes that they stream the events on YouTube again?

actualrealliveanna · Aug 10, 2015

Mrs. P said:
There will be a bottleneck in 2018, regardless though. Quinn Carpenter and Michael Parsons will age out of juniors after the 2016-2017 season, which means you'll have a bunch of teams competing in 2018 for just three Olympic spots. And I'd imagine that those teams will want to move up after this season anyway.

The US fight for the Olympic spots is going to be very intense. Add Pogrebinsky/Benoit to that list and there'll be seven teams vying for three spots.

silverlake22 · Aug 10, 2015

Layback11 said:
Rachel is 5' 4" according to Google, and Michael is 5' 8". That's almost the same height difference as H/B (who are 5'3" and 5'8"). Also, what is the nature of Liu/Johnson's injury? Is there any chance they might still compete?

I feel like Rachael may be rounding down to 5'4" and Michael up to 5'8", they look pretty close in height when they skate and Rachael has a long look on the ice like she may be more in the 5'5"-5'6" range. I still think they improved last season and skate well together. Rachael is very lean for now and Michael is starting to get more muscular, so they may be fine for the future, I guess it mostly depends on if Rachael can stay slight as she matures. She already looks very grownup for 17 though, IMO. I was kind of hoping that she might team up with Daniel Eaton, but he's not that tall either and now that ship has sailed.

Jammers · Aug 10, 2015

I can't see the Parsons and M/C staying Junior past this season.

Barb · Aug 10, 2015

There are some possibilities to change nationalities for Parsons or M/C? it will be a nightmare to compete at seniors with C/B, Shibs, H/D, H/B. Though is very probable Shibs retire after 2018.

Jammers · Aug 10, 2015

chapis said:
There are some possibilities to change nationalities for Parsons or M/C? it will be a nightmare to compete at seniors with C/B, Shibs, H/D, H/B. Though is very probable Shibs retire after 2018.

Why would those teams try to change nationalities? After 2018 most of the veteran teams like the Shibs and C/B and maybe H/D will probably retire. For the Parsons and M/C 2022 is going to be there time to make a go for the Olympic team.

aromaticchicken · Aug 10, 2015

chapis said:
There are some possibilities to change nationalities for Parsons or M/C? it will be a nightmare to compete at seniors with C/B, Shibs, H/D, H/B. Though is very probable Shibs retire after 2018.

Eh, I'm sure that M/C and Parsons have 2022 in their sights anyway. They know it's an intense battle at the top and I think they are trying to rack up their junior accolades so that when the spots do finally open up in the seniors that the USFSA will write them in with a permanent marker.

In terms of the Parsons height difference - I don't think it's just height but size and frame. If you look at them skate you'll notice that while she is shorter her limbs are longer and her build is larger (both of them are extremely fit and in shape, she just looks more full), and when they get into the deep edges there are moments when she actually appears *taller * than him. That's partially why to me its so impressive how effortless their lifts look - - he is extremely strong.

chuckm · Aug 10, 2015

Jammers is right. Teams don't move up to senior in 2016-2017 and expect to be on the World/Olympic team the following year. Even Davis/White and Virtue/Moir couldn't have pulled that off! D/W and V/M went senior in the year before the 2006 Olympics and had 3 years to build their resumes for 2010.

In the years between 2018 and 2022, M/C and P/P will be working on building their rep in the GP. Meanwhile, there will be retirements and splits among the more senior teams and the leadership will change as time goes on. New teams will enter the picture, too.

cheerknithanson · Aug 10, 2015

chuckm said:
Jammers is right. Teams don't move up to senior in 2016-2017 and expect to be on the World/Olympic team the following year. Even Davis/White and Virtue/Moir couldn't have pulled that off! D/W and V/M went senior in the year before the 2006 Olympics and had 3 years to build their resumes for 2010.

In the years between 2018 and 2022, M/C and P/P will be working on building their rep in the GP. Meanwhile, there will be retirements and splits among the more senior teams and the leadership will change as time goes on. New teams will enter the picture, too.

I'm quite excited to see the next generation of American ice dancers.

gkelly · Aug 10, 2015

chuckm said:
Jammers is right. Teams don't move up to senior in 2016-2017 and expect to be on the World/Olympic team the following year. Even Davis/White and Virtue/Moir couldn't have pulled that off! D/W and V/M went senior in the year before the 2006 Olympics and had 3 years to build their resumes for 2010.

Davis and White had 3 years: they missed much of the 2004-05 season because Charlie broke his ankle playing hockey after the JGP but before the sectional competition where they would have needed to qualify for U.S. Nationals at junior level. So they stayed junior for 2005-06 and then went fully senior for 2006-07.

Virtue and Moir were undefeated internationally as juniors in 2005-06 and also placed third as seniors at both Canadian Nationals and Four Continents.

Both teams debuted at Worlds in 2007.

Mrs. P · Aug 10, 2015

And who knows what will occur by 2018 and how different teams will end up.

Going back to the subject, I think the U.S. dance teams will do well on the JGP and at Jr. Worlds.

The Russian pairs will be the toughest competition. I'm interested to see how the new team of Bent/Razgulajevs from Canada. Also is Delmaestro/Lum returning? They also medaled on the JGP, but I don't see them on any entry lists so far.

cheerknithanson · Aug 10, 2015

Mrs. P said:
And who knows what will occur by 2018 and how different teams will end up.

Going back to the subject, I think the U.S. dance teams will do well on the JGP and at Jr. Worlds.

The Russian pairs will be the toughest competition. I'm interested to see how the new team of Bent/Razgulajevs from Canada. Also is Delmaestro/Lum returning? They also medaled on the JGP, but I don't see them on any entry lists so far.

And also considering 2/3 the junior ice dance teams who medaled at worlds (And coincidentally, both are competing at Skate America this year) are going to seniors.

aromaticchicken · Aug 10, 2015

Mrs. P said:
And who knows what will occur by 2018 and how different teams will end up.

Going back to the subject, I think the U.S. dance teams will do well on the JGP and at Jr. Worlds.

The Russian pairs will be the toughest competition. I'm interested to see how the new team of Bent/Razgulajevs from Canada. Also is Delmaestro/Lum returning? They also medaled on the JGP, but I don't see them on any entry lists so far.

Agreed. I'm U.S. centric (obviously) when it comes to Juniors, but I think the U.S. should have very high hopes this junior season, with:

Men: Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou (too bad no Andrew Torgashev

)
Ladies: Amber Glenn, Vivian Le
Dance: M/C, Parsons, a whole slew of others.

Hopefully we actually get more U.S. skaters at the Junior Grand Prix Final.... the fact that only Liu/Johnson qualified last year was very depressing and bleak.

cheerknithanson · Aug 10, 2015

aromaticchicken said:
Agreed. I'm U.S. centric (obviously) when it comes to Juniors, but I think the U.S. should have very high hopes this junior season, with:

Men: Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou (too bad no Andrew Torgashev )
Ladies: Amber Glenn, Vivian Le
Dance: M/C, Parsons, a whole slew of others.

Hopefully we actually get more U.S. skaters at the Junior Grand Prix Final.... the fact that only Liu/Johnson qualified last year was very depressing and bleak.

That is true but think of other countries that never or rarely get any JGPF entries!

2015-16 Junior Predictions

Ice Dance

Jammers

aromaticchicken

cheerknithanson

actualrealliveanna

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

cheerknithanson

actualrealliveanna

silverlake22

Jammers

Barb

Jammers

aromaticchicken

chuckm

cheerknithanson

gkelly

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

cheerknithanson

aromaticchicken

cheerknithanson

Similar threads

Connect with us