2015-2016 Ladies Power Rankings

drivingmissdaisy said:

I don't agree. Winning a title by skating far below your best level does not make you consistent. Patrick Chan medaled in every event after Vancouver (winning only one bronze, in fact). Would you call him a consistent skater? That isn't taking anything away from Mao, she is a great skater. She just isn't a consistent one if we are talking about putting together two programs that can beat skaters like Liza regularly.

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If you want to talk about consistency.

Pre Sochi's scoring of Liza is consistently around 170s, except when skate in Europe when it can hit 180. that is why an European panel undoubtedly favours her scoring. Last year she managed to hit 210 from 169 in the beginning of the season, partly due to post Sochi inflation, but I believe also has to do with Adelina's absent from the scene, so she naturally benefited from the #1 Russia lady status once it is finally confirmed Adelina is out the rest of the season. Of course how she dominated the field being the hardest working skater in the ladies naturally boosted her score and impressions even further complete with 3A. Mao not being around in a field along with most of the veterans in a young field, Liza naturally promoted to veterans status receives all the bonuses reserved for being the head of the pack that typically happens in this sport.

However, it is important to note Mao despite her worst days has always scored averagely good 20 points higher than Liza, as well as being competitively more successful overall despite her inconsistencies. Pre Sochi Mao's marks generally consistently fluctuate between 180s to 200s, 10 to 20 points higher than Liza. Say Liza's new 3A now cancel out about 5 points difference, plus the new value changes with the 3T and new SP rule can potentially cancel out another 4 points difference. It means if they go according to pre Sochi standard, they should be around 10-12 points difference between the 2, still with Mao leading.

I have always felt Mao's reputation for inconsistency although true, but is somewhat exaggerated. If you take away her 2011 season when she is re-tuning her jumps. Frankly when she was competing with the like with Yuna Kim - likely the most consistent skater in the history of the sport, male or female, of course she is going to look poorer in consistency, but so will everybody. She is certainly more consistent than Carolina Kostner or dare I say Miki Ando at least in PCS. If you really compare her to the rest of the currently field, she is more consistent overall in her longer career than everyone else on the top 10 power list due to youngster's relatively short career so far. Liza has only really been consistently dominating 1 season. The one season without Mao.

If you look at Adelina's entire history, Adelina has suffers far worse consistency than both Liza and Mao despite their less than desirable physique conditions past 2 years. Liza nursing back injury around 2013 went through her slump, Mao been fixing her technique for about 2 years and personal loss that may affect her emotional state, while Adelina didn't have any issues as far as I am aware, but she repeatedly underperformed at big competitions. Lost the Youth Olympic to Liza. 5th in GPF. 9th at worlds. Controversial Russia national wins.

So for you to discuss consistency as the reason to put Mao below Liza and Adelina, you are infact being totally SUBJECTIVE and not OBJECTIVE as you claim.

Frankly we shouldn't ignore post Sochi inflation season 2014-2015 when Mao wasn't competing, as Liza as the leader in the field became the sole benefactor of the type of bonuses that have been given for field leaders like Mao, and power federation #1 status. Consider Yuna coming back to the field for WC2013 having been away for 2 years had a depression affect over the score inflation at worlds in 2013. with 69 score in her WC Short Program and everyone's score been repressed after her.

I would expect Mao's return should affect the PCS inflation we experienced post Sochi as long as she skate well. Although it must be said, it depends largely on the judging panel make up and how strict the technical panel is going to be. Theoretically as long as Mao skate some what cleanish got a generous tech panel, her participation should repress PCS inflation overall compare with last season, particularly on skaters such as Liza, Elena's PCS. Either that, or we will experience even crazier inflation race as one continent trying to out doing another. Mao got NHK, Liza got TEB.

Japan Open should be very interesting, as it can set the tone of how the rest of the season may play out.

Elena Leonova reminds me very much of my skating Wife Maria Butyrskaya. Everyone wrote her off and then like a Phoenix, She rose from the ashes and became World Champion.

mrrice said:

Elena Leonova reminds me very much of my skating Wife Maria Butyrskaya. Everyone wrote her off and then like a Phoenix, She rose from the ashes and became World Champion.

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Go Alena but making the RUssian team might be her world title

mrrice said:

Elena Leonova reminds me very much of my skating Wife Maria Butyrskaya. Everyone wrote her off and then like a Phoenix, She rose from the ashes and became World Champion.

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Lol, like Anna Pogo's exhibition?

Also, lol at "skating wife."

gotoschool said:

You are ignoring statistics from their last competitive season. The official scores indicate that Mao has more than 8 points higher average score on the Grand Prix series and Worlds in her last season as compared to Liza's for similar competitions with a higher score in every single Grand Prix even and Worlds, whereas your posts suggest the opposite. The most recent historical scores are not conclusive, but there is not a lot else to base future results on. I don't know what will happen in the future, but I think an accurate reading of the recent past is important.

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I much prefer Mao's skating to Liza's, but most of the programs you're comparing don't take two things into account: 1) Mao's scores came before there was a BV penalty for edge calls; now her TES will take a hit because she either won't do a lutz or will get a lot fewer points for it, and 2) Liza didn't have a 3A on the Grand Prix series. If they both skate cleanly, Liza has the technical edge on Mao.

Layback11 said:

Lol, like Anna Pogo's exhibition?

Also, lol at "skating wife."

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Hey, When Maria Butyrskaya kisses you on the cheek, it's like heaven. She's Beautiful on TV but, in person she's drop dead gorgeous.

Jennifer Robinson of Canada is a very close second. She's dreamy..........

kwanatic said:

For the past two seasons I've done power rankings on my blog, but I do them when I have something more concrete to go on. I do my rankings based on the End of the Grand Prix and then the End of the Season.

Right now, any rankings we come up with are just speculation because we have no idea how anyone is going to skate this year. We have a slight idea based on what they did last season but, as we know, what happens in one season doesn't necessarily dictate what will happen the next season. After Julia's awesome 2013-2014 season, who could have predicted she'd fall apart so badly? And after Liza T's rather lackluster 2013-2014 season, who could have predicted she'd rise to the top and win worlds? There's just no way to tell what will happen until we get a better idea for where everyone's head is at.

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I think it's nice to have a "pre-season" poll of sorts, as it's interesting to see how things shift throughout the season.

Skater Boy said:

Go Alena but making the RUssian team might be her world title

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I know, maybe she should try skate for Uzbekistan like Tatiana Malinina and Misha. As Maria proved. It's never too late until you stop trying.

drivingmissdaisy said:

You're right. She did have a marvelous 2013-14 season and really only had two bad programs, one at Nationals and one in Sochi. I still think it is unlikely that she will achieve her form from that year because she is two years older, she has a few troublesome jumps (lutz and salchow in particular), and she was inconsistent in previous seasons. I would love to be wrong but I think it's a mistake to ignore what impact a year off competitive ice will have.

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You're right we don't know yet in what shape Mao will come back, so your entitled to your own assessment about it. But IMO, I wouldn't call the Salchow one of her trouble jumps anymore. It has improved a lot in technique, height and consistency - she landed the 3S at all major international competitions last season (GPF, Olys, Worlds), and got up +1.3 GOE for it.
And her lutz is a flutz, so that's obviously a problem. She's rather consistent at landing that jump though (surprisingly quite a few 'flutzers' are pretty consistent with that jump). Mao has her share of troubles with her jumps, but the single triples aren't that much of a problem anymore.

Skater Boy said:

Go Alena but making the RUssian team might be her world title

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Sorry about that spelling error. Alena is the singles skater and Elena is a pairs skater. Is that right?

os168 said:

However, it is important to note Mao despite her worst days has always scored averagely good 20 points higher than Liza, as well as being competitively more successful overall despite her inconsistencies.

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These comparisons don't matter because Liza wasn't a world champion then. When there were maybe 5-10 skaters in between Mao and Liza, their PCS wasn't going to be close, but no panel is going to mark Mao a lot higher than Liza now on PCS. Even in Sochi, Gracie with a few mistakes was only 6 points behind a clean Yuna and 5 behind a clean Caro in the LP PCS, so a clean Liza is going to be just a bit behind Mao on PCS.

I agree with drivingmissdaisy. Even if there should be a big PCS gulf between Mao and Liza, there will not be. Liza is the World Champion, and Mao is just coming back. They will be scored accordingly. TES will be the deciding factor in that match up, and it's hard not to bet on Liza.

I think Mao will have a fairly nice cushion on pcs maybe 4 to 6 pts but if Liza skates clean that might be closer. But I saw some posters who think both Ashley and Gracie might be on the world podium. both have the technical abilities if on and skating skills as well as programs. They are more powerful than the Russian baby ballerinas, Adelina looks either injured or a basket case,Julia L might not even make it out of Russia, Anna is no match as we know even for Polina Edmunds, Rad does not skate like a woman like Ashley or Gracie.

^Not holding my breath for either Ashley or Gracie to be on the Worlds podium. It's the exact same conversation as last year, and look what happened.

lilahozi said:

^Not holding my breath for either Ashley or Gracie to be on the Worlds podium. It's the exact same conversation as last year, and look what happened.

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Agreed, the field is deeper this year for sure. But then again, those two repeatedly take themselves out of contention with mistakes so if they can go clean who knows what can happen.

drivingmissdaisy said:

These comparisons don't matter because Liza wasn't a world champion then. When there were maybe 5-10 skaters in between Mao and Liza, their PCS wasn't going to be close, but no panel is going to mark Mao a lot higher than Liza now on PCS. Even in Sochi, Gracie with a few mistakes was only 6 points behind a clean Yuna and 5 behind a clean Caro in the LP PCS, so a clean Liza is going to be just a bit behind Mao on PCS.

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I disagree... considering Carolina and Mao were both world champions before 2013 and neither won consecutive titles due to PCS when a more competitive skater come along, the field is suppose to align on a relative basis as it should be by the time of worlds (in theory) if the skaters deliver, and when the standard settles. Mao's participation this year early season should have that effect on the field, where as Yuna only had 1 major competition that year which was the WC hence the delayed settling down relative effect.

Your view is coloured by the fact you stubbornly believe Sochi scoring is how it should be and ignore scoring discrepancies. It is in fact wildly inflated for specific skaters that is INCONSISTENT to how they actually performed and usually marked. Not just with Gracie's generous score at individual event, but also Ashley's underscore and Russian skater's in general throughout the whole event. So for you to claim to be objective, it is important to look over the a larger quantity data to get a fuller picture.

Or we can do the opposite....as long as we apply the same standard consistently... to be truly objective.

If you wish to go according to Sochi standard, Yuna being the reigning Olympic Champion, reigning world champion - her PCS was practically equalized by 9th place previous world finisher with no major titles to speak of. Does that mean great news for 2015 WC 9th place finisher SoYoun Park? That as long as she has a great skate, she too can equalise her PCS to Liza? Would you really be willing to accept this standard? Afterall, an objective view should apply same standard consistently to everyone rather than selectively cherry pick specifics to suit an argument. Given Mao should have no problems beating SoYoun, so why should she have problems beating Liza? She has more Olympics medals and World Champion titles than her...and around and round we go. Does it all sound a bit to you? It does to me. That is why Sochi data should not be part of the equation.

Bottom line is, it is up to the judges. If the judge is to be honest with themselves they are likely to go according to previous historical standard when the two competed directly to each other, rather than the field with only one of them participating. Finally, you might not realise it, but ironically, if there is no Yuna Kim, Mao Asada may very well likely to be the most consistent ladies skater these past 2 quads. Thus you faulting her for inconsistency would be mute.

Given their PCS for their FS were 9 points apart at WC 2013, it will be interesting to see how much they separate by Japan Open.

For a change in conversastion: Is there ANYTHING RECENT (key phrase, here) on Mao regarding her jumps? Videos of her shows? News segments of practice? Based on those videos how does her jumps rank with the competition? I know shows aren't a perfect indicator, but it's something!

Or better yet, any of you seen her in person on The Ice or another show?

I know I can look them up myself, but speaking to those of you who have seen them already and perhaps can provide perspective.

Mrs. P said:

For a change in conversastion: Is there ANYTHING RECENT (key phrase, here) on Mao regarding her jumps? Videos of her shows? News segments of practice? Based on those videos how does her jumps rank with the competition? I know shows aren't a perfect indicator, but it's something!

Or better yet, any of you seen her in person on The Ice or another show?

I know I can look them up myself, but speaking to those of you who have seen them already and perhaps can provide perspective.

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Any new updates/news in regards to Mao's Jumps that I've seen are posted on Mao's fan fest page. The most recent news (yesterday) is that Mao is practicing both 3F-3L and 3F-3T ahead of Japan Open. Not sure if there's any videos available.

lilahozi said:

^Not holding my breath for either Ashley or Gracie to be on the Worlds podium. It's the exact same conversation as last year, and look what happened.

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Yeah there is no good reason that both of them finished behind Sakoto. Should never have happened but they choked big time.

lilahozi said:

^Not holding my breath for either Ashley or Gracie to be on the Worlds podium. It's the exact same conversation as last year, and look what happened.

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No, and we understand that. But having seen footage of Gracie's practices and what we saw at Glacier Falls, it's hard not to think she's improved a lot (even TSL, who really did not like her in the past, is saying she looks very strong). I'm not sure about Ashley, as she hasn't competed yet and all we have to go by is one video. But I wouldn't write either of them off yet (Ashley being more of a question mark than Gracie at this point).