2015-16 State of Russian Ice Dance

B/S & I/Z & S/K seem to be the front runners of Russian Ice dance so far. One showing for each of them - and the outcome bewtween them is quite unclear in comparison. I would say, that B/S could come out 1st again with more mileage; S/K look quite reasonable (Nikita looks actually bigger with Vika, maybe because she accompanies him, isn't flamboyant herself and still clearly the weaker part of the couple); I/Z have their FRIDA, but seem a bit frantic to me. Top spots are out of reach again this season, I think. :giveup:

The marks are very close so far. CoR will be very interesting for S/K and I/Z.

3 Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN RUS 63.54 31.06 32.48 8.14 7.82 8.21 8.21 8.21 0.00
3 Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN RUS 95.46 46.12 51.34 8.46 8.36 8.61 8.61 8.75 2.00

2 Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 62.76 31.65 32.11 8.17 7.83 8.17 8.04 7.92 1.00
2 Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 99.45 50.28 51.17 8.63 8.29 8.54 8.63 8.54 2.00

3 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 64.38 31.58 32.80 8.29 7.96 8.38 8.38 8.00 0.00
3 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 96.73 47.28 50.45 8.42 8.04 8.42 8.58 8.58 1.00


So - what are your thoughts?

Let's talk after we see Step/Bukin.

bramweld said:

Let's talk after we see Step/Bukin.

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Tbh, from the one Russian comp I've seen them in, they don't look convincing at all. Of course they were horribly overscored anyway, but I thought the performances they put out weren't great and the material isn't great either. Or at least it didn't look great the way they presented it there.

I basically think the Russian federation and the international judges are involved in a complex game of chicken.

The federation is not pushing anyone as their number 1 right now, and is letting these three teams fight it out, game of thrones style, and trying to see who the international judges put on top. They have even already tried to pit teams against each other to figure this out, but B/S withdrew from the event they were supposed to go up against I/Z in. At Rostelecom, they have also pitted I/Z and S/K against each other. Once they figure out who the international judges are favoring, they will start pushing this team as their number one.

The international judges, on the other hand, are basically lost in the dark and unable to form an independent thought on which of these teams they like best. They are blundering along, scoring them all very similarly and awaiting a sign from the Russian federation about who they are supposed to view as Russia's number 1.

Who will give in and make a statement first? Tune in next week, same bat time, same bat channel.

For now, S/K look the most ready & they have safe, judge friendly programs, but they are still new and have to prove that they can repeat the performances they did at Skate America without making silly mistakes like last year. There isn't the level of choreographic sophistication in their programs that I'd expect from a top couple. It helps now because they look more comfortable than other teams, but as the season develops, their programs could appear empty in comparison to everyone else. Overall, the improvement from last season is impressive.

B/S are still getting back into the competition & their FD seems very divisive; people either love it or find it dull. There are a few technical issues to be worked out & I hope Dima can stay healthy, even though he says he still has pain when he skates. But I think after last season & what happened with losing the spot at Worlds, the fed will appreciate them as a tried & tested team.

I/Z need to do the most work, particularly in polishing the quality of their elements. The SD is a risk again with the love it/hate it factor, but did still score OK at CoC. Personally I'd change it, they have time to do so between the GP & Nationals. Right now I'd say they are 3rd, but I think they alongside B/S have the most potential to grow their score in the FD - S/K almost maxed out levels (4 for everything apart from step sequences) at SA, but I/Z had a level 2 step sequence and a level 3 lift, losing 2 in BV and the corresponding GOE multiplier, and although they had a lacklustre skate with some visible stumbles, they still got higher PCS than the other Russian teams did for cleaner skates. If, and it's a big if, they can get the FD to really work well, it could elevate them above the others as it's a stronger piece of choreography. But it's also a challenging dance and there is more potential for mistakes, and if the other 2 teams pull away while they are still getting used to the program, it will be hard to come back in the 2nd half of the season.

All teams need to work on lift timings!

Those three teams to Euros, then a shoot out there for the two Worlds spots. I suspect it will come down to who can nail the TES as no one has yet shown enough to get them a significant PCS boost over the others. At Worlds, I still don't think any of them are ready to fight for the podium. 4 teams have posted much better scores, and there's still P/C to come.

I can't see S/B or M/K being a factor unless one of the other teams makes mistakes. S/B in particular have very disappointing programs this season.

Comparing scores from different competition again? History proves everytime that it doesn't show a real picture. Too soon to say anything for sure, but Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov have an edge over Bobrova/Soloviev since they're skating in Russia next, that's all I can say. Otherwise, it's very unclear and complicated. But I'm sure all these teams will only win in a long term because of this rivalry.

Snow63 said:

Comparing scores from different competition again? History proves everytime that it doesn't show a real picture. Too soon to say anything for sure, but Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov have an edge over Bobrova/Soloviev since they're skating in Russia next, that's all I can say. Otherwise, it's very unclear and complicated. But I'm sure all these teams will only win in a long term because of this rivalry.

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Or not as has happened in the past where all the energy of the Russian teams was spent fighting each other to get the major competitions.
The rivalry doesn't seen to help long term, it just ends up with Russian teams quitting.

As I see it, S/K have the best chance of the GP. B/S & I/Z will only make it to the final if P/C don't arrive for TEB.

Mattieu said:

Or not as has happened in the past where all the energy of the Russian teams was spent fighting each other to get the major competitions.
The rivalry doesn't seen to help long term, it just ends up with Russian teams quitting.

As I see it, S/K have the best chance of the GP. B/S & I/Z will only make it to the final if P/C don't arrive for TEB.

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I'm not sure that I agree with the last statement, it's far from a given that P/C will be 100% even if they are able to skate.

As for the Russian couples I see B/S coming out on top. S/K have improved tremendously, but their programs are a bit meh to me, and I just don't get what people see in I/Z at all.

S/K have silver, so they have a better shot at GPF even if they finish 3rd at CoR(interested to see how C/L and W/P will be scored there).
However, I still have hopes of I/Z placing 2nd in CoR if they polish the programs. I am not a fan of S/K(for personal reasons) and they leave me cold, though they have nice qualities.
B/S... Well, they were always OK team for me, but never wowed me(you know what I mean?_
For now, I see I/Z, S/K and B/S fighting for podium places at Nationals. Though the team, which might qualify to GPF, might have a PCS boost there...
Then, these 3 teams will most likely go to Europeans and top 2 there foes to Worlds.

M/K and S/B are not likely to be in Russian team this year. M/K have better package this year, bit still bland. S/B, same old, same old, too ambitious but nothing special...

MsLiinaLii said:

However, I still have hopes of I/Z placing 2nd in CoR if they polish the programs. I am not a fan of S/K(for personal reasons) and they leave me cold, though they have nice qualities.
.

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They would need to beat either C/L and W/P to place 2nd, and I can't see that happening.
So the best they can hope for would be 3rd. 11 + 11 = 22 points.
If S/K finish 4th they will have 13 + 9 = 22 points, but they would go ahead of I/Z on the tie break as their highest placement was 2nd compared to I/Z's highest placement of 3rd.

Mattieu said:

They would need to beat either C/L and W/P to place 2nd, and I can't see that happening.
So the best they can hope for would be 3rd. 11 + 11 = 22 points.
If S/K finish 4th they will have 13 + 9 = 22 points, but they would go ahead of I/Z on the tie break as their highest placement was 2nd compared to I/Z's highest placement of 3rd.

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I know, it is extremely unlikely But who knows, it is CoR, you never know

tulosai said:

I basically think the Russian federation and the international judges are involved in a complex game of chicken.



The federation is not pushing anyone as their number 1 right now, and is letting these three teams fight it out, game of thrones style, and trying to see who the international judges put on top. They have even already tried to pit teams against each other to figure this out, but B/S withdrew from the event they were supposed to go up against I/Z in. At Rostelecom, they have also pitted I/Z and S/K against each other. Once they figure out who the international judges are favoring, they will start pushing this team as their number one.



The international judges, on the other hand, are basically lost in the dark and unable to form an independent thought on which of these teams they like best. They are blundering along, scoring them all very similarly and awaiting a sign from the Russian federation about who they are supposed to view as Russia's number 1.



Who will give in and make a statement first? Tune in next week, same bat time, same bat channel.

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Blundering? They are scoring them at the level the skate at which is exactly their jobs.

I could easily see no Russian team making GPF:
C/B have qualified with 28.
W/P & C/L will likely go 1 and 2 at CoR and will both qualify, one with 28 and one with 30.
P/C have no competition at TEB and should win, even if they aren't in top form. I still expect they will win NHK too, but a win at TEB plus even a 3rd place at NHK is enough (or maybe even 4th).
Shibs should get 2nd at NHK & qualify with 26. If they lose to B/S, they will probably still go through with 24 points as they have a cushion on the higher score TB. Of course, they could also beat everyone if P/C are struggling & go through with 28.
G/P will probably get 2nd at TEB, leaving them on 24 points.
B/S have to get 2nd at NHK, S/K have to get 3rd at CoR, then they join G/P on 24 points and it comes down to who scores highest. S/K currently have a 1 point advantage here over B/S and then it's 4 points back to G/P. But I think G/P's silver is more nailed on than the results the others need.

uhh said:

I could easily see no Russian team making GPF:
C/B have qualified with 28.
W/P & C/L will likely go 1 and 2 at CoR and will both qualify, one with 28 and one with 30.
P/C have no competition at TEB and should win, even if they aren't in top form. I still expect they will win NHK too, but a win at TEB plus even a 3rd place at NHK is enough (or maybe even 4th).
Shibs should get 2nd at NHK & qualify with 26. If they lose to B/S, they will probably still go through with 24 points as they have a cushion on the higher score TB. Of course, they could also beat everyone if P/C are struggling & go through with 28.
G/P will probably get 2nd at TEB, leaving them on 24 points.
B/S have to get 2nd at NHK, S/K have to get 3rd at CoR, then they join G/P on 24 points and it comes down to who scores highest. S/K currently have a 1 point advantage here over B/S and then it's 4 points back to G/P. But I think G/P's silver is more nailed on than the results the others need.

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Totally agree.
We could have no Russian teams in GP final if S/K are 3rd or lower in TEB and B/S are 3rd or lower in Japan.

Also, like them or not, I think H&D also have to be considered as far as the remaining GPs and the GPF are concerned.

Ekm said:

Also, like them or not, I think H&D also have to be considered as far as the remaining GPs and the GPF are concerned.

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Yep, for sure. I think a lot will depend on the shape P/C are in too. Imo there are now 2 spots undecided, P/C grabs one of them if they skate as usual at TEB.

Mattieu said:

Or not as has happened in the past where all the energy of the Russian teams was spent fighting each other to get the major competitions.
The rivalry doesn't seen to help long term, it just ends up with Russian teams quitting.

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I disagree with that, look at Russian Ladies. They are forced to be better by their compatriots. I hope to see the same from dancers.

uhh said:

But I think G/P's silver is more nailed on than the results the others need.

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Thank you for the analysis, though I have to say . . .

I don't think anything is nailed down this season. Obviously the BIG question is will P&C skate? One event? Two events? And how will they look?

If we assume they skate both events and look good enough to defeat the teams currently ranked at least 7 slots below them, then there is still room for an upset over Gilles & Poirier. I think most notably from Coomes & Buckland who defeated them in the SD at Nepela. Though Hubbell & Donahue could definitely get the job done technically if the judges decide to embrace their programs and if H&D can frigging hit.


I agree with Snow's comment that one should not make assumptions based on scores across GP events.

Personally, I'm leaning toward Bobrova & Soloviev to finish the season ahead of the other Russian teams. We'll see. Still a long way to go . . .

so... PC will not skate, big chance for Stepukin I think. Though their 2 dances are kind of boring for me this season, I still like them a lot. If they are gonna win that Silver, then back to COR they will have more advantage. And since PC's out, maybe Bobrova and Soloviev can get at least a silver too at NHK? Increase the chance of getting last ticket to Spain? :agree:

TheGothicEme said:

so... PC will not skate, big chance for Stepukin I think. Though their 2 dances are kind of boring for me this season, I still like them a lot. If they are gonna win that Silver, then back to COR they will have more advantage. And since PC's out, maybe Bobrova and Soloviev can get at least a silver too at NHK? Increase the chance of getting last ticket to Spain? :agree:

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Yes this is definitely a big chance for them... they could actually even win :eeking: though I don't see that as the most likely scenario.

Though this is one of the weakest GP ice dance fields, it is probably at this point the most interesting in terms of who is going to manage to place where.