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Thread: What skaters do you have a feeling will BOMB next season? (under CoP or in general)

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    What skaters do you have a feeling will BOMB next season? (under CoP or in general)

    i have a feeling tim goebel will bomb. He's just not made for CoP.

    -Matt Savoie and Angela Nikodinov will bomb.....there time has run out. Matt needs still a quad.

    -sandhu will bomb but that wouldnt be a a surprise, would it....

    -irina, if she competes, will BOMB big time. The judges wont (finally) be able to hold up her sloppy skating with CoP

    actually the I predict with the exception of plushenko, the whole russian federation will bigtime BOMB next season, since CoP does not favor their skaters the way the 6.0 system did. No wonder RUSSIA opposed CoP's implementation so vigorously. No more "eastern bloc" judging situations to worry about.

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    Creative Compilation Compiler aka 3axel
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    What about Michelle?

    I'm wondering how Michelle Kwan's pretty, and well executed, but low difficulty programs will be scored under COP. After all these years, I just don't think she'll come up with a consistant 3/3 or 3ax. So, even if she wins Gold or Silver at US Nats I don't see how she can meet the technical challange that she will face at 2005 Worlds or the 2006 Olym, and Worlds. I don't think she'll bomb, but maybe the sport is moving past her abilities.

    3axel

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    To me, it's still a long way from being clear whether the CoP will really favor the huge technical elements or the balanced program with speed, flow, choreography and in-betweens. The big jumpers came out on top at Worlds, but that was 6.0.

    The person last year who was able to get the most out of CoP scoring was Sasha, without a 3-3 or a triple Axel.

    Michelle? I think she has such mastery of the sport that she can adapt her programs to any scoring system, if she wants to.

    Mathman

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    Quote Originally Posted by Taan
    actually the I predict with the exception of plushenko, the whole russian federation will bigtime BOMB next season, since CoP does not favor their skaters the way the 6.0 system did. No wonder RUSSIA opposed CoP's implementation so vigorously. No more "eastern bloc" judging situations to worry about.
    I'm not going to comment on your assessment about Russian skaters and their federation, but I will say that you're being a little naive if you think CoP is the solution for eventual corrupt judging in general, eastern or western blocs. The people giving the marks are still the same.

    And I don't see why Russian skaters in general will suffer with CoP. Let's see... in men we have Plushenko, 3 time World champion and the one to beat. We have Klimkin with his interesting programs full of transitions and MITF that score big time with CoP, we have Griazev with good basics and given he's coached by Tarasova IMHO we can expect a program that will be designed to explore CoP, we have Shubin who has a quad and is a good all around skater who needs more consistency (hopefully he recovered from his injury).

    In pairs we have T/M who despite not selling their programs so well have complex choreography and transitions not to mention the superb basic skills, but I'm repeating myself... and we have O/S who are coached by Moskvina, who wil also know how to explore CoP... not sure how P/T will do, depends if they improve or not.

    Ladies we have Irina Slutskaya, fast on the ice, huge, solid jumps and some with not so average entrances that will be certainly appreciated by the judges, good, fast spins, and again good skills... I think Sokolova may suffer, though, because she lips badly and her overall quality of skating really isn't the best.

    Dance, N/K will be the next Olympic champions LOL and we have D/S and K/N rising... let's see how they do next season... So I sure don't see why Russian skaters will be more punished under CoP than others LOL

    I also see no reason to believe Michelle Kwan is going to suffer with CoP. Her technique is very correct and I have no doubt that she will adjust her programs to CoP, like all skaters who competed in the GP last season did. That will certainly be enough to put her at the top. Remember, it's not only the difficulty of the programs that matter, it's how well they are executed and that matters alot. I believe her quality of skating will allow her to get very good marks.

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    LOL, and I think that we can be sure that in 2003 GP Finals Plushenko did get the message what NOT to do under the CoP scoring. He will not be beaten a second time because of a technical missunderstanding. I would imagine that he has gotten instructions in this matter from his coach.
    Last edited by Jaana; 06-27-2004 at 08:38 AM.

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    ~ Figure Skating Is My Passion ~ Ladskater's Avatar
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    Taan:

    What skaters will bomb next season? Do you have a crystal ball or know something the rest of us do not about each skater? Figure skating is a very unpredictable sport. Much depends on the focus, health and determination of the skaters as well as their choreography and music choices.

    It's a little early to be "predicting" let's give the skaters a chance to prove themselves!

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    Depending on how much the CoP has been tweaked in the off season, not having huge jumps may not be a factor. Remember, Kevin van der Perren made the GP Final without a 3A or a quad. (granted, there were several injuries, but he deserved his spot there)

    I thought Tim would do badly under CoP, but he seemed to do just fine. A clean Eman will also do well under CoP, if he bombs, it's not because of the scoring system, it's because of his inconsistency.

    The judges seemed to be using the skating skills, interpretation, etc, as a way to make sure the "right" skaters are making the top. Not all of them, and not all of the time, but I think all of us saw performances where a skater was held up, just like under 6.0.

    Laura

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    I can't believe that any of the "elite" skaters won't have their programs ready to meet CoP standards by next season. This is what they work for, so I'm thinking that they"ll be ready......the question remains how the system will "like" each individual skater.............42

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    I don't think Tim will bomb at all under COP. Even though he doesn't have style, he still makes the attempt to have interesting moves in his program such as hydroblading and different entrances into his jumps. He doesn't get into the ice as well as Weir, however Tim had great quads and he did two kinds of quads as well. I see Tim doing pretty well under COP.

  10. #10
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    I concur with 42, I can't believe that all the elite coaches won't be training their respective skaters to the code. Who will likely bomb? Probably any skater that would have bombed under the ordinal system. Those who are under trained or don't have the facilities/resources to train properly, those who are injured, or those who have lost confidence in their basic skating abilities.

    For example, Mk and Yvgeny have both been mentioned as possibly being deminished by CoP judging. Great champions rise to, and often above change...it may be the VERY thing both NEED to spark them on and challange them to greater heights because they are already seasoned champions who need motivation to keep being great.

    As for Tim, Angela, Takeshi, Ann Patrice, et al, I think it entirely a head game at this point for them...I don't think you lose your talent, it's your confidence that gets undermined when you are out or recovering from serious injuries.

    Funny thing is, I've already begun to notice people's prejudices/preferences kick in when making a simple comparison to how a skater would do under both systems..."MK's lack of height" "Irina's sloppiness" "Tim's posture".

    And one last question, since the amount of jumps has basically been reduced ( am I right in my understanding that female skaters will only be allowed 6 jumps total?) how will this affect the competitive level of the program and will it reward/deduct from someone like Ando with multiple 3x3s, but will have to "fill" the rest of the program with more intricate skating since some of the time of the program will be freed up?

    I sure am looking forward to the new skates. Like the skaters, the skating fans are going to have to learn a new way of "keeping up" with scores since the judging becomes more obviously detailed and nuanced...IMHO

  11. #11
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    How about Lindemann? He didn't do anything of consequence while the COP was under effect, and then as soon as the 6.0 came back, he pulls off a 5th at Euros and 3rd at Worlds.

    As to the Russians not doing as well under COP -- I did find it rather interesting that aside from Plushenko, T/M, and N/K, they didn't have a very good season under COP. Perhaps it was just an off year for them in general; they have had those before and have come roaring back. Or maybe it was the system did not favor them; it's really impossible to know. In any event, I'm sure if COP is a problem for them, they will take care of it.

    Overall, though, this is rather a difficult question to answer in general, at least it is for me, because I don't fully understand the COP and I think it's probably going to take a couple of years for me to do so.

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    Did they reduce the number of jumps for women to 6? So if a girl has a 3 axel, she's going to have to get rid of one of the other jumps to do the 3ax? I thought the skaters were limited in terms of having to do a variety of jumps and they could only repeat one if in a combination. Did they change that?

    The Russians didn't do well under COP b/c of all the injuries and inconsistencies (esp in the ladies). That will take it out of anyone.

    COP for Lindemann: Lindemann brought out the performances when they implemented the 6.0. He will do well under COP if he brings the performance. However I don't understand why Lindemann was such a shock. He was the 2000 World Junior Champion so it's not surprising that he would make a mark in seniors. It takes a little while for the guys to transition from juniors to seniors anyway so he was right on point to start doing well. I also think that in his case it was a lot more than just dumb luck as everyone skated well and he had the jumps and the choreography (esp in his long program). I think he might be a top 5 skater to stay.
    Last edited by soogar; 06-27-2004 at 12:40 PM.

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    Seems to me both Goebel and Plushenko did extremely well under CoP last season.

    Goebel won one event and finished 2nd in the other, despite having serious problems with his quad. Tim made the GPF even though he had only one scoring event.

    Plushenko won all three of his events and lost the GPF on a technicality.

    Having greater difficulty in a program won't necessarily give any skater the upper hand. We saw Kevin Van Der Perren and Michael Weiss make the GPF without even attempting a quad. Weiss won bronze in the GPF without the mighty quad. Shen/Zhao won the GPF over Totmianina/Marinin, even though T/M had more difficulty in their SP and FS because S/Z's skating is of overall better quality than T/M's. Skaters who perform clean programs with technically correct jumps will do well under CoP.

    Furthermore, under new CoP rules, falls will receive mandatory deductions. Skaters who 'go for the gusto' in every performance but consistently fail on the difficult moves may find they have to change their strategy.

    I think experienced skaters who have consistently medaled in the past will do very well under CoP. If Irina has overcome her health problems, I think she will shine under CoP, and Kwan will as well.
    Last edited by chuckm; 06-27-2004 at 12:38 PM.

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    Custom Title heyang's Avatar
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    I agree with whomever said that champions would rise the the challenge. It's not as though COP is a secret. It's out there and to compete means following these new guidelines. This may actually provide a spark to our 'old-timers'.

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    I agree it's a little too early to predict who will bomb next season. Nevertheless, I do suspect that the Russian singles skaters may not fare so well under COP. As a group, the Russian singles skaters tend to be big on jumps and power, but weak in choreography (exception: Plushenko, Klimkin), spins (exception: Slute, Klimkin), transitions, presentation, and general refinement. They are power skaters, not finesse skaters, and COP seems to favor finesse (as shown by Sasha's success last year).

    Pairs and dance are another story. The top Russian pairs are all excellent technicians--very strong in basic skating and pairs skills--so I would expect them to do well under COP. In fact, they may have the edge over the Chinese pairs in COP. Where they fall short is in consistency and general charisma. As for dance, Navka & Kostomarov appear to be well-regarded skaters technically, and certainly have good presentation skills, so they ought to flourish under COP.

    What will be interesting to see is how the Japanese ladies fare under COP. I predict success for Shizuka, and for Fumie if she can become more consistent. Yukina should also do well. Miki Ando is the big question mark. Unless her artistry and choreography improve very substantially over the summer (certainly possible), I think she could suffer under COP. But I would assume her coaches already know that and are attempting to prepare for it.

    Based on what happened last season, it does seem that many longtime-elite skaters' careers appear to be on a downward trajectory at this point: Fumie Suguri, Viktoria Volchkova, Jenny Kirk, Angela Nikodinov, Julia Sebestyen, Elena Liashenko, Tim Goebel, Takeshi Honda, Matt Savoie, Michael Weiss, Petrova & Tikhonov. I'm not predicting all these skaters are going to bomb next year, but they do have some ground to regain.

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