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Thread: What skaters do you have a feeling will BOMB next season? (under CoP or in general)

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8m8
    And one last question, since the amount of jumps has basically been reduced ( am I right in my understanding that female skaters will only be allowed 6 jumps total?) how will this affect the competitive level of the program and will it reward/deduct from someone like Ando with multiple 3x3s, but will have to "fill" the rest of the program with more intricate skating since some of the time of the program will be freed up?:
    The amount of jumps wasn't reduced. It's the JUMPING PASSES that has a limit. A jumping pass may be a single jump or a combination with 3 jumps. Skaters and their coaches will have to study CoP to know what jumps, combinations and sequences they can do keeping in mind the 3 combo maximum and the Zayak rule, for example.

  2. #17
    Custom Title ATW27's Avatar
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    Never mind
    Last edited by ATW27; 06-27-2004 at 01:50 PM.

  3. #18
    GOLDEN DREAMS RealtorGal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria
    Based on what happened last season, it does seem that many longtime-elite skaters' careers appear to be on a downward trajectory at this point: Fumie Suguri, Viktoria Volchkova, Jenny Kirk, Angela Nikodinov, Julia Sebestyen, Elena Liashenko, Tim Goebel, Takeshi Honda, Matt Savoie, Michael Weiss, Petrova & Tikhonov. I'm not predicting all these skaters are going to bomb next year, but they do have some ground to regain.
    Tim and Takeshi were both out with injuries last season, so there is no way to predict whether their comebacks will be successful--with or without CoP. Elena Liashenko did fabulously well under CoP--better than she did under 6.0. She even won several events last season and placed 2nd in another. As for Sebasteyn, she had a fabulous skate to win last year's Europeans. P&T have been trying to regain ground ever since their Worlds win several years ago. Weiss and Vika have been up and down for years. Anyhow, I don't really see a downward trajectory for all the skaters you listed.

  4. #19
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I agree, RealtorGal. Especially Liashenko and Sebestyen, who had their best seasons ever last year. Also Fumie. She won the GP final under CoP judging, and skated a podium-worthy LP at Worlds. In fact, I think Fumie has the right combination of tech and artistry to excel under the CoP, the skate gods willing.

    Mathman

  5. #20
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    RG - ITA. Never say die. Alll those named, may just come up with a second wind. It would not be the first time.

    JOe

  6. #21
    Custom Title Ogre Mage's Avatar
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    Based on what happened last season, it does seem that many longtime-elite skaters' careers appear to be on a downward trajectory at this point: Fumie Suguri, Viktoria Volchkova, Jenny Kirk, Angela Nikodinov, Julia Sebestyen, Elena Liashenko, Tim Goebel, Takeshi Honda, Matt Savoie, Michael Weiss, Petrova & Tikhonov
    I agree that Elena Sokolova is headed for a fall next season. She has jumps but is otherwise completely sloppy. Vika has never been great under CoP OR 6.0. However, if Irina can get back into her 2000-02 shape, I could see her making an impact. Her spins have great speed (though not well-centered) and her basic skating is excellent. I am not sure about her components marks, though.

    Unfortunately I think Jenny Kirk may be in trouble next season as well. She has some clear technique deficiencies, most notably a terrible flutz and weak spins. Maybe Frank C. can correct these problems. Otherwise I don't think CoP will be kind to her. As for Angela, she's been having problems for years. We already know Sasha is a fine CoP skater and Michelle will do great if she goes back to the type of programs circa '96-'99. I think AP McDonough can make a strong impression under CoP if she gets her act together.

    Shizuka is an excellent CoP skater. Ota will get high component scores but may recieve negative GOE for her jumps. Fumie Suguri is hard to say -- it could go either way for her. Miki Ando is also a huge question mark. She has the jumps and a well choreographed program, but overall her presentation skills are mediocre. Yoshie Onda is out of it under CoP.

    I am also curious to see Carolina Kostner under CoP. Her basic skating is breathtaking and she's a great jumper. But her overall line, choreography and presentation -- ugh.
    Last edited by Ogre Mage; 06-27-2004 at 05:53 PM.

  7. #22
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    I don't think anyone will "bomb" under the system. Like in Mathman's comment, Sasha came out on top a lot last year in the Grand Prix because she excels technically AND artistically. I thought the CoP grades each individual element, including choreography, musical expression, etc. Not just the jumps and spins. I think the only skaters that won't do well under the CoP are skaters who are just techinical or just artistic. I think the CoP is trying to encourage the full package skater.

  8. #23
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    Carolina Kostner skated under CoP last year. She bombed badly at Skate America, finishing 7th in the SP and 10th in the FS. But at Cup of Russia, after a 6th in the SP, she won the FS to win the silver medal behind Liashenko. However, the field at Cup of Russia was very weak, as many of the original invitees as well as some seeded skaters (Volchkova) had dropped out.

    What will hurt Carolina most is her inconsistency. You never know which Carolina is going to show up.

  9. #24
    Forum translator Ptichka's Avatar
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    I, too, agree that Elena Liashenko did exceptionally well under CoP. I think RGirl commented on this at one point that Elena's skating elements seem to be more than the sum of its parts, thus she does well under CoP.

    As for others... I agree that we can expect CoP-oriented programs from all Tarasova students, including Arakawa.

    I actually agree that Plushenko was not geared toward CoP this season. He won his GP events because he was so much stronger that the competition. His Nijinsky programs had the elements, but was rather weak on transitions. I hope Mishin can see the light and adjust.

    In Pairs, it's harder to talk about the effect of CoP, since there is far less competition that in singles.

    Finally, Dance. I have to admit that this is the one FS discipline where I am still uncertain as to how CoP effects anything. Though, in an ideal world, I think CoP would favor Denkova & Stavijsky over Navka & Kostomarov, as N&K tend to be more sloppy (that from someone who actually like them better than D&S).

  10. #25
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    [QUOTE=Ptichka]I, too, agree that Elena Liashenko did exceptionally well under CoP. I think RGirl commented on this at one point that Elena's skating elements seem to be more than the sum of its parts, thus she does well under CoP.

    With those telegraphed jumps? I dunno.

    Amber Corwin will suffer. At 4C's this year Peter Carruthers and Susie Wynne said she'd suffer under the new system. They used CoP at the Nebelhorn Trophy and she didn't do so well, mainly because of her cheated jumps and ugly laybacks. She doesn't hold her spirals for very long, and ***** ******, she's been competing as long as Kwan and her spirals are those of a junior lady. Her footwork is quite clunky too.
    Last edited by Mathman; 07-15-2004 at 10:33 AM.

  11. #26
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    But Amber did extremely well at Skate America, finishing 4th. She learned her lesson at Nebelhorn and added lots of transistions. Her long program there was TEXTBOOK CoP, with transitions between each element, and she skated really well. I wouldn't count her out.

    Laura

  12. #27
    Da' Spellin' Homegirl Grgranny's Avatar
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    It just breaks my heart when people use the name of the LORD in vain.

  13. #28
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    I might be a bit naive in saying this, but this is still the same level of elite skating. Their scores will be dependent upon the normal things that comprise a winning skating career, such as preparation, clean skating, good choreography, stamina, holding it together through the program, and several other major factors that are escaping me at this moment. It's not like they are taking up another sport on an Olympic level and being expected to do something that they have never done before. I am keeping an open mind and going to hope that all of them skate personal bests, and that none of them BOMB. It is hard work and to get to that level is simply amazing in and of itself.

  14. #29
    Skating Freak Barbie
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    Ok, so it's off season, and we're all kind of bored and exploring different theories and thoughts in skating.

    But it kind of rubs me wrong, to try to predict someone 'bombing', even if it is a skater I find boring, or dislike on or off the ice.

    So that's my response....no response.

    Kasey

  15. #30
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    Skaters sometimes bomb in a particular event, but top skaters generally don't bomb consistently, or they wouldn't BE top skaters.

    As far as the Russians go, it's really only the Russian ladies who are going through a bad patch. The men are strong, there are two strong Pairs and a very strong Ice Dance Team. Russian prospects for 2006 are quite strong in 3 of the 4 disciplines.

    We don't really know how a skater like Sokolova will do under CoP, because last season, she was still recovering from surgery during her GP events and she didn't do well. I don't think she is the most polished skater around, though, and I don't see her particularly thriving under CoP. Her choreography has been pretty bad, and often her music choices don't suit her. Sokolova is a mercurial skater, anyway, and in the past has followed a terrific season with a not-so-good one. We don't really know which Elena is going to show up this season.

    Same with Volchkova. Leaving Chicago and returning to Russia was a bad move for her, success-wise. She skated badly in the GP last season, and I have a feeling that if she doesn't redeem herself this coming season we won't be seeing much of her any more.

    Irina Slutskaya should do OK under CoP. Whether or not she can contend for her previous top placements depends on her ability to regain her strength and build up her stamina back to its previous level. I think that is more of a possibility than a probability, though. She has a chronic illness, and I think that will keep her from being 100% of what she used to be.

    Julia Soldatova is a question mark. She hasn't competed for over two years, and in her last appearances at Worlds her best showing was 18th.

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