Will Mao Asada Make It to the 2018 Games?

jenaj · Apr 11, 2016

jinhamasaki said:
People talk about ladies being consistent with their 3A but none of the men can do quads consistently either. Not even Ito was consistent with her 3A

I wonder why her 2A-3T is getting < on the toe loop. Is she delaying the rotation of the toe loop too much?

A completed 3A by a female skater is much rarer than a completed quad by a male skater. The risk/reward seems much lower. Liza T. hasn 't been able to repeat the 3A, either. I didn't mean to criticize Mao. She is one of the best skaters of all time and has certainly done her share of good 3A's, unlike just about everyone else besides Midori Ito. Mao certainly has the potential to be WC again, so if she wants to go for it, more power to her.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 11, 2016

chasingpolaris said:
So even if she wins without the 3A, I don't think she'd be satisfied with herself. I'd rather see her fail the 3A but be content with what she's delivered than to see her win medals but not satisfied with herself, if that makes sense.

That's very admirable, but in some ways she must be frustrated that she keeps getting passed by women who do easier elements than her 3A or 3F/3Lo. Two clean skates without a 3A (but with a successful 3-3 in each program) would have gotten her at least silver in Boston.

largeman · Apr 11, 2016

hurrah said:
It was suggested on another thread that Mao should revert back to her old, inferior technique and do the toe loop like Satoko and Evgenia. The pre-rotation problem is not, apparently, going to be addressed until at least the next Olympics is over by IOC, so it's better to pre-rotate rather than under-rotate under current rules. :confused2:

I was only being facetious when I suggested that though

Mao has worked too hard to improve her techniques to abandon them now, and I believe she is also too principled and proud to adopt obviously inferior technique just so she can get 1.2 points of base value

I think her toeloop looks great and she is able to land it past the 1/4 mark on a good day. Even if she underrotates the jump, I'd prefer it to if she pre-rotates it more and lands it "cleanly."

andyjo24 said:
I always respect skaters like Mao who are willing to take big risks.

But the main problem in this case is that it doesn't appear that the risks are paying off. It would make sense that she take risks if there is a lot to gain from them, but the risk/reward ratio appears to be very high in Mao's case.

At this point in time, judges are rewarding skaters for consistency, not risk. Look at Evgenia. She just transitioned from juniors to seniors, and she already surpassed Mao both in terms and technical and presentation scores, which is absurd (for presentation) but that's how the judging system works.

But then again, I can see why Mao is going for the risk factor. She has nothing to lose at this point. She's won everything except the Olympic Gold.

This is just who she is. To love her is to embrace (or at least accept :biggrin:

) the fact that she is stubborn and will go for high stakes. Leave the 3A aside for a minute, because one can argue that she has always really needed the 3A to have a decent chance in 2010 and 2014 and it's not just a matter of athlete's pride. But the fact that she would never give up on the lutz, even if it has cost her more than helped her all season, shows us this type of mindset. I really had thought she'll never do a correct lutz and I had hoped and hoped she'd leave it out of her programs since ISU started imposing bv penalty on edge calls. And there she goes, putting it in both of her programs and creating lots of trouble for herself. I don't know what she'll do with the lutz next season but I'll support whatever her decision is, because I've seen a perfect lutz from her in competition so I know she's capable of it, and more importantly because this never-play-safe personality is what endears her to me. :thumbsup:

Skater Boy · Apr 11, 2016

I think it is clear Mao will be around in 2018 but whether she is competing in Korea is another issue. I know there are a lot of supporters of Mao and her programs and skating skills / pcs are usually the best by far -mature, flu9id, elegant, well put together, musical and sublime. I do think her short this year fell flat and was a bit juniorish. The problem with Mao is not so much she sometimes miss the triple axel because remember even if she misses it - it is worth so much she still can get points that are not far from a double axel. the problem with Mao is her ur's and edge calls. She still has issues with this despite years of trying to rectify her edges and such. I hope the support Mao gets will be the same tye of support for Patrick Chan - they both have earned such support.

Skater Boy · Apr 11, 2016

drivingmissdaisy said:
That's very admirable, but in some ways she must be frustrated that she keeps getting passed by women who do easier elements than her 3A or 3F/3Lo. Two clean skates without a 3A (but with a successful 3-3 in each program) would have gotten her at least silver in Boston.

But these women do more different elements too in that their edges are clean and they don't ur.

gotoschool · Apr 11, 2016

Skater Boy said:
I think it is clear Mao will be around in 2018 but whether she is competing in Korea is another issue. I know there are a lot of supporters of Mao and her programs and skating skills / pcs are usually the best by far -mature, flu9id, elegant, well put together, musical and sublime. I do think her short this year fell flat and was a bit juniorish. The problem with Mao is not so much she sometimes miss the triple axel because remember even if she misses it - it is worth so much she still can get points that are not far from a double axel. the problem with Mao is her ur's and edge calls. She still has issues with this despite years of trying to rectify her edges and such. I hope the support Mao gets will be the same tye of support for Patrick Chan - they both have earned such support.

Mao's SP at Cup of China has some of flashiest most intricate jazz dance moves ever in the step sequence coupled with smooth as carving butter skating skills, not to mention the triple axel and triple flip and loop. Some skaters are inspected closely for minute hooks and edges, while others have these things and huge pre-rotation ignored or at least get off the hook a lot more. Mao's SP did "flat" out fantastic with public. One video alone has almost half a million views and ratio of 17 likes to 1 dislike. This is far, far more views than any other women's SP of the season. This is my new form of scoring since the ISU likes to play flip flop with the scores so much that they have taken Mao's 8-14 point advantage in PCS in the LP on Ashley and Evgenia the last season they all skated and turned it into a 3.5-5 point disadvantage even when she skates exceptionally well as she did in her Worlds freeskate 2016, where she has over twice as many views as Evgenia and about 4 times more views than Ashley with a much higher like to dislike ratio. They skated well, but the scores contradict this huge positive response for Mao, especially since Mao is often criticized.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC9PI2RISEU&nohtml5=False Mao's SP at Cup of China

miki88 · Apr 11, 2016

Skater Boy said:
But these women do more different elements too in that their edges are clean and they don't ur.

Are you talking about current ladies competing?
Ashley has urs and edge issues too. Satoko rarely has a clean edge on her flip and her jumps often look questionable. Evgenia has edge issues. The issue here I think is that some skaters get favorable calls while others don't. Mao became a prime target when calls became stricter during the start of 2007 season, and I think she really suffered from it.

topaz emerald · Apr 11, 2016

drivingmissdaisy said:
If she continues, my one hope is that she abandons the 3A. If she can train and consistently rotate a 3-3, she can perform a layout like Evgenia's (maybe a 3F-3Lo instead) and win on PCS when she's clean. As a fan, I'm frustrated that she fails to see how much she has to offer besides the 3A and I'm sure training that jump takes so much time away from training moves like the 3-3 that can put her in winning positions in any event. I understand that she is "skating for herself" but if she continues to want a place on the Japanese team her focus should be on planning layouts that can optimize her placements.

exactly, for the longest time (big fan, btw) I never understood why she kept putting in the 3axel. I never understood why she never worked on getting a triple triple consistent. I've also always felt that Tarasova was never the right fit for her and earlier in her career when she faced Yuna in seniors, that's when you saw judges penalizing her on the lutz edge calls and under-rotations on her triple triples. I really personally feel when she was at her prime facing Yuna, the judges failed her technically and artistically and she just wasn't lucky in having the right coach by her side. So for me, it's amazing that she even won Olympic Silver after facing such obstacles that, in my opinon, could have been avoided.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 11, 2016

Skater Boy said:
The problem with Mao is not so much she sometimes miss the triple axel because remember even if she misses it - it is worth so much she still can get points that are not far from a double axel.

To put things in perspective, Mao got 4.19 points for her < 3A in the LP (which looked nice in real time). Ashley got 4.3 for her 2A to open her LP. If Mao doesn't nail the jump she is throwing points away.

narcissa · Apr 11, 2016

drivingmissdaisy said:
To put things in perspective, Mao got 4.19 points for her < 3A in the LP (which looked nice in real time). Ashley got 4.3 for her 2A to open her LP. If Mao doesn't nail the jump she is throwing points away.

ugh this is so unfair since it was beautiful even if <

mary01 · Apr 11, 2016

andyjo24 said:
Exactly. I respect Mao for going for the 3A even though it's really difficult for it to be consistent.

But is it worth doing it when others are doing the "normal" 7-triple program cleanly, while she is struggling to get it right less than half the time in competition?

Or would it be a better time investment for Mao to ditch the 3A and do the "normal" 7-triple program like others and focus on reducing UR/edge issues? (This might be a good approach because she's heads and shoulders above others in terms of PCS if she can go clean).

I think the fact that Mao has never gone through a competition without a UR has hurt her PCS although it shouldn't. When was the last time she didn't have an UR in a competition? Like never unfortunately...

Actually you don't have t look far to find it, earlier this season at Japan Open she landed all seven triples with no ur. The thing with Mao is, she has everything, every skill a figure skater could wish for, but despite that her pcs and scores in general just almost never reflect her full ability and what she is capable of, for some mysterious reason, it's soo frustrating. I have seen alot of skaters get underscored through the years but Mao tops my list of skaters i find mostly underscored, she keeps getting questionable harsh calls that often don't make sense

miki88 · Apr 11, 2016

Mao does the 3A because she loves the jump and it gets highly rewarded when she does land it well. This season wasn't great for her but it was actually not a bad one for her 3A rate. She got full credit for three 3As and two at her first competition. If anything, I would say she should forsake the 3F-3Lo, because the chance of her getting credited for that combo is really slim. I think judges don't like loop combos. I can't recall any other skater trying them anymore, at least in the senior rank. Miki stopped doing them after being called on hers. I think Adelina used to do a loop combo as a junior, but also stopped. It's not worth the time, better for her to try a different combination.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 11, 2016

miki88 said:
Mao does the 3A because she loves the jump and it gets highly rewarded when she does land it well. This season wasn't great for her but it was actually not a bad one for her 3A rate. She got full credit for three 3As and two at her first competition. If anything, I would say she should forsake the 3F-3Lo, because the chance of her getting credited for that combo is really slim. I think judges don't like loop combos. I can't recall any other skater trying them anymore, at least in the senior rank. Miki stopped doing them after being called on hers. I think Adelina used to do a loop combo as a junior, but also stopped. It's not worth the time, better for her to try a different combination.

Mao could do two 2A-3T combos and win almost every event. In the SP she'd probably need to attempt some 3-3 though.

narcissa · Apr 11, 2016

I can't for the life of me see how her 3A was under rotated in Boston. Or her 3Lo. I just don't get it. What happened to benefit of the doubt?

andromache · Apr 11, 2016

drivingmissdaisy said:
Mao could do two 2A-3T combos and win almost every event. In the SP she'd probably need to attempt some 3-3 though.

Yeah...interesting how Satoko has what at least LOOK to be less impressive jumps compared to Mao whereas Mao receives penalties...and Mao might benefit from doing a Satoko layout in the LP (in addition to a 3A, repeating the 3F with a 3F-2Lp.) But I admire her ambition to do otherwise.

This is a question from someone who only watched in Olympic years between 2007-2009 and 2011-2013 (busy with high school and college and things, and while I've watched lots of great stuff, missed some of the nitty gritty). At what point did Mao's 3-3s get so unreliable? Was it because of greater attention to URs or because she lost technique over time?

hurrah · Apr 12, 2016

narcissa said:
I can't for the life of me see how her 3A was under rotated in Boston. Or her 3Lo. I just don't get it. What happened to benefit of the doubt?

Standards of judging always make subtle changes to promote a certain skater over another, and the skating world will usually promote a new skater most likely to bring in new fans, new viewers and new money. The skating world knows that Mao doesn't need to be awarded a medal to be beloved by the public---her esteem is so beyond the level of whether she gets a medal or not---that they prefer to promote a skater who needs that medal to have a chance at being popular thus bringing in new money.

So, ironic as it is, it is Mao's utter and overwhelming popularity that impedes her from being treated fairly by the judges.

What this phenomenon creates is a league of fans of Mao, but not fans of skating as a spectator sport. In other words, they will pay money to watch Mao, but they will not pay money to watch skating as a judged sport and will leave the sport as soon as Mao leaves, because they know judging is basically bogus.

miki88 · Apr 12, 2016

andromache said:
Yeah...interesting how Satoko has what at least LOOK to be less impressive jumps compared to Mao whereas Mao receives penalties...and Mao might benefit from doing a Satoko layout in the LP (in addition to a 3A, repeating the 3F with a 3F-2Lp.) But I admire her ambition to do otherwise.

This is a question from someone who only watched in Olympic years between 2007-2009 and 2011-2013 (busy with high school and college and things, and while I've watched lots of great stuff, missed some of the nitty gritty). At what point did Mao's 3-3s get so unreliable? Was it because of greater attention to URs or because she lost technique over time?

Around 2008-2009. She started struggling with her jumps and didn't include that combination for a few years. She only brought it back in the LP in 2013.

Skater Boy · Apr 12, 2016

narcissa said:
ugh this is so unfair since it was beautiful even if <

This proves my point that Mao is still competitive with the an error on the triple axels. But the problem is her other jumps.

mary01 · Apr 12, 2016

Skater Boy said:
This proves my point that Mao is still competitive with the an error on the triple axels. But the problem is her other jumps.

Her other jumps are fine, it's just the constant nitpicking from the judges and conservative goe that's keeping her down, she is doing a layout that should keep her at the top at all times, when done relatively clean, but i get the impression that the judges just don't care if the skater is doing a 3A vs. 2A an 3f-3lo vs. 3t-3t. Thankfully Mao said she will pay more attention and work harder on her difficult combo's to avoid any doubt in the future. because it seems like if there is the slightest doubt on her difficult combos/jumps she doesn't get the benefit of the doubt :disapp:

hurrah · Apr 12, 2016

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20160412/k10010476261000.html

Mao clearly states for the first time that she is determined to go to Pyeongchang Olympics:

「強い覚悟で選手として戻ってきたので、何があっても最後までやりきろうと思っている。今シーズンいろいろなことがあったが次に向かっている」
'I came back to competition with a sense of strong resolve, so I want to see this to the end whatever happens. Alot happened this season, but I am already moving ahead.'

「選手としてオリンピックの舞台にもう一度行きたいという思いが強い。それが最終目標になると思う。それが正夢になればいい」
'I strongly wish to find myself on the Olympic stage as an athlete once again. I think that will be my final goal. I hope my dream will come true.'

「自分の目の前の目標をクリアにしていって、気付いたらオリンピックに近づいたと思っていけるようにしたい」
'I want to be able to feel myself reaching closer to the Olympics naturally through overcoming short-term goals lying in front of me.'

:luv17::luv17::luv17:

Will Mao Asada Make It to the 2018 Games?

jenaj

drivingmissdaisy

largeman

choice beef

Skater Boy

Skater Boy

gotoschool

miki88

topaz emerald

Match Penalty

drivingmissdaisy

narcissa

mary01

miki88

drivingmissdaisy

narcissa

andromache

hurrah

miki88

Skater Boy

mary01

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