2016-17 State of Japanese Men's Skating

synesthesia said:

Who do you guys think has the biggest potential for a break-through in the next years? Who stands out the most?

Sota seems the most likely at the moment, but he has such rotten luck with injuries.
Koshiro? Kazuki?

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I think it will be Sota and Koshiro. But I would welcome any other skater who "surprises" me!

Just my opinion, but I personally think that the Japanese men's field has been rather lacking in strong/fun/interesting personalities, and some kind of innate charisma. Ever since Daisuke Takahashi retired, in my opinion Hanyu has been the only one left in seniors with an inexplicable "star quality" (which is not to say I don't follow and support the various other Japanese men, and admire their achievements... it's just that for me they don't have "that extra something").

But I think both Sota and Koshiro do have "that extra something" that other skaters don't

Koshiro has impressed me this last year or so with his expressive skating and artistry, and he is attempting quads and 3A. From what little I know of him (I've spoken with people who know him, and I even met him myself at this year's JGP in Tallinn)... he seems to be humorous, charming and polite... he has a cute childish face and (after astonishing growth this last year or so) he also has that Hanyu/Boyang "anime" build... but he also seems strong, very hard-working, highly motivated and ambitious. I think he's quite a fighter. I have high hopes for him, but time will tell...

I hope Sota can return to full fitness soon...

Timing never seems to be on Daisuke Murakami's side. He has had some great international competitions yet he's never had a chance at Worlds. I hope he can come back some day and get his chance.

synesthesia said:

Thx for the info.

Agree with the inevitable fluctuation, but approx. from 2006 to 2015 there had been such constant high quality, that it's a little saddening to see the recent decline. But then again some of the current juniors might be one of Japan's next top guns! Who do you guys think has the biggest potential for a break-through in the next years? Who stands out the most?

Sota seems the most likely at the moment, but he has such rotten luck with injuries.
Koshiro? Kazuki?

Ah, it's so unpredictable...

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I would say Koshiro Shimada, Yuto Kishina, Sena Miyake. But you never know. Boys change a lot in a year.

How old is little Shun Sato, I've totally lost count by now. 13?

And yes, boys do change a lot, we'll just have to wait and see how it'll shake out. I like Sena and Koshiro so simply, fingers crossed for all of them.

Shun is probably 13, he'll be in jrs next season.

For me the Japanese men's field is full of young men who are all in about the same place, they're just not quite *there* yet. To some people it might seem "pedestrian" or lacking depth but to me it's exciting because I feel like at any moment one of them could improve just a bit on their artistry/jumps/skating skills and have an awesome breakout season and place themself solidly as the 3rd man. I hope that happens for someone before the Olympics but who knows.

Yatagarasu said:

How old is little Shun Sato, I've totally lost count by now. 13?

And yes, boys do change a lot, we'll just have to wait and see how it'll shake out. I like Sena and Koshiro so simply, fingers crossed for all of them.

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Shun is still 12. His birthday is 2004.02.06. Hopefully he'll have stabilized his jumps, including 3A by next season since he'll be age eligible for JGP.

synesthesia said:

Thx for the info.

Agree with the inevitable fluctuation, but approx. from 2006 to 2015 there had been such constant high quality, that it's a little saddening to see the recent decline. But then again some of the current juniors might be one of Japan's next top guns! Who do you guys think has the biggest potential for a break-through in the next years? Who stands out the most?

Sota seems the most likely at the moment, but he has such rotten luck with injuries.
Koshiro? Kazuki?

Ah, it's so unpredictable...

Click to expand...

I adore Sota, however his 3A last season really made me nervous. He looked so fearful before jumping them and took some really nasty falls. I kept thinking if he didn't get over his 3A anxiety he would injure himself and then it happened. Also, the success of his quads (which actually looked quite stable) seemed to depend on him landing the 3A. I hope Sota can fully recover physically and overcome any PTS his injury may have caused.

Kazuki's my boy! However, IMO his success depends on him getting a jump coach and keeping his ego in check (no thanks to you, Marin Honda ).
Yuto Kishina seems to have progressed the most this season. Possibly because he was always tall-er and didn't have the obvious growth spurt to deal with like Koshiro and Sena.
I'm also keeping an eye on newbie junior Tatsuya Tsuboi.

synesthesia said:

Thx for the info.

Agree with the inevitable fluctuation, but approx. from 2006 to 2015 there had been such constant high quality, that it's a little saddening to see the recent decline. But then again some of the current juniors might be one of Japan's next top guns! Who do you guys think has the biggest potential for a break-through in the next years? Who stands out the most?

Sota seems the most likely at the moment, but he has such rotten luck with injuries.
Koshiro? Kazuki?

Ah, it's so unpredictable...

Click to expand...

Actually, It took 4 years from Kozuka to Hanyu and 5 years from Hanyu to Uno. Field is deep during Takahashi, Oda and Kozuka batch but after them there has not been many. Shoma just won his junior title in 2015 so if there was a talent we probably would only see him in 2-4 years from now or else we would have already seen him by now. I agree there is a decline, but it is a normal cycle I think.

About Sota, I really have not heard of his update even until now. The last thing I know about him is Japanese skating fans seem sad (?) and freaking out (?) over him changing his twitter and instagram bio into 16 year old high school student or something (don't ask me why, I don't even know what his previous bio was or why they were sad). The current talent in junior men field (and those who just reach senior) is still so young and can already quad + 3A pretty consistently. So my guess is unless the Japanese junior men can quad and 3A consistently, I don't see them being as competitive in the top-tier level as Yuzuru and Shoma are.

mcq said:

So my guess is unless the Japanese junior men can quad and 3A consistently, I don't see them being as competitive in the top-tier level as Yuzuru and Shoma are.

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Remember how Shoma basically pulled his 3A and 4T out of a magical hat after years of people thinking he'd never be competitive because he doesn't have the big jumps? Somebody might get it all together sooner than we think. And Yuzu and Shoma are about to turn 22 and 19 respectively, if they both stay in, I'd say Japan has a lot of time for the next big thing to show up.

And while I also really miss the amazing retired Japanese men, and see that the Japanese field is not quite as deep (as in numerous) as it used to be, I can't help but giggle a bit at people calling this a 'decline'. As much as I loved Dai, Taka and Nobu, they have 1 world championship title between them. Arguably, Yuzu + Shoma might win Japan more big medals than all of the retired skaters combined. And with Taka Mura, Dice Murakami and now hopefully Keiji Tanaka, Japan has still more deserving men than they have worlds spots. Selfishly, I'm actually really happy there are not what feels like 312413742935 deserving and lovely skaters having to stay home to watch the WC on TV

Li'Kitsu said:

Remember how Shoma basically pulled his 3A and 4T out of a magical hat after years of people thinking he'd never be competitive because he doesn't have the big jumps? Somebody might get it all together sooner than we think. And Yuzu and Shoma are about to turn 22 and 19 respectively, if they both stay in, I'd say Japan has a lot of time for the next big thing to show up.:

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Exactly what I said though. Shoma managed to learn them and get it consistent. The current junior field has yet to do so and until they manage to suddenly acquire them I won't be betting my money on them being competitive. Besides, I don't think they are talking about the current senior batch, who is pretty much competitive, but the upcoming juniors. I follow JGP men and sadly I have to say, even in juniors now, you can barely survive without a 3A and a quad. It's been a while since no Japanese junior men qualify for JGPF (last time was in 2010 I think), so I understand the sentiment of a decline. Keiji and Ryuju both qualified for JGPF several time, but even their senior career has yet to flourish. This kind of cycle is normal, you get great talents and then you get a decline for a while. It happens with the Canadian, Russian and American men too, I don't think it is anything to be upset about.