Michelle Kwan's Short Program "Time" Issue

[BigSk8Fan]

I agree---Cohen and Kwan were incredible in the SP, and Sebestyen was WAY better than Kostner and Ando in the FS, but was placed behind them. The placement of Kostner is a puzzlement. Two horrid, disruptive falls, and she got 5.8s and a 5.9 in technical. Still beats me!

A beautiful jumper, but so stiff-legged.

When I first saw her marks, I thought the same thing you did. Then I said to myself, "Her aunt, Isolde Kostner, was an Olympic speed skater. So was Cinquanta, the Il Duce of the ISU. Hmmmmm, something shifty, no doubt." Or "shady" as my 16-year old daughter says often. In addition, Kostner's boyfriend is Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland, where the ISU is located. These people, judges, skaters, coaches and the like, no doubt socialize and probably spend lots of time with each other....how hard is it to figure out? Carolina has connections and was held up as a direct result of those connections :sheesh: :sheesh:.

And all of the above is jmho. Maybe it didn't happen, but ever since Lillehamer, nothing surprises me in figure skating.

[gkelly]

When I first saw her marks, I thought the same thing you did. Then I said to myself, "Her aunt, Isolde Kostner, was an Olympic speed skater.

Isolde Kostner was a skier, not a speedskater.

....how hard is it to figure out? Carolina has connections and was held up as a direct result of those connections :sheesh: :sheesh:.

And all of the above is jmho.

Hm, you make up a conspiracy theory in your own head on the flimsiest of connections, not even all true, and then you roll your eyes at the people you're accusing without evidence? Sheesh!

Maybe it didn't happen, but ever since Lillehamer, nothing surprises me in figure skating.

Why Lillehammer?

[RIskatingfan]

I thought Kostner deserved her placement in the SP. She skated beautifully and landed three triples, but not the lutz and her solo jump was a loop. All the other top ladies in the top 4 landed a lutz and a flip, the hardest triples (not counting the axel). She would probably be placed higher if she had better presentation, but the only one ahead of her with weaker presentation is Miki Ando who skated very well too and had the more difficult jump content of the SP competition.

[R.D.]

On topic for a moment:

If I understand correctly, the length of the ladies' short program has now been extended to 2:50. I wonder how pissed Kwan must be now!

[Joesitz]

Not to be picky (sorry, can't help myself ) but as "East Germany" doesn't exist anymore, Hoffman can't be a "East German" official.

Be picky. It's ok with me. But bear in mind, I am an East Side New Yorker and there is a difference between East and West.

Joe

[Joesitz]

On topic for a moment:

If I understand correctly, the length of the ladies' short program has now been extended to 2:50. I wonder how pissed Kwan must be now!

Dog - She aint pissed. She doesn't need another medal. Those other skaters do.

Joe

[BigSk8Fan]

Isolde Kostner was a skier, not a speedskater.

Okay, I made a mistake. I thought she was a speedskater.


Hm, you make up a conspiracy theory in your own head on the flimsiest of connections, not even all true, and then you roll your eyes at the people you're accusing without evidence? Sheesh!

And I also said that it may or may NOT be true. I never said it was concrete. Hence the roll eyes. Try paying attention and stop being so condescending.

Why Lillehammer? [/QUOTE]

Because this was the first time I realized that figure skating was so political, from the Kerrigan/Baiul decision to the ice dancing. It was then I found out about national bias. I actually believed that skating was judged fairly - NOT.

[R.D.]

Dog - She aint pissed. She doesn't need another medal. Those other skaters do.

Joe

I know...I was half-kidding...I do wonder though, it has to go through her mind, since she's going to stay for next season...

P.S. She got her medal anyway, even with the time deduction, so...

[hockeyfan228]

I thought Kostner deserved her placement in the SP. She skated beautifully and landed three triples, but not the lutz and her solo jump was a loop. All the other top ladies in the top 4 landed a lutz and a flip, the hardest triples (not counting the axel). She would probably be placed higher if she had better presentation, but the only one ahead of her with weaker presentation is Miki Ando who skated very well too and had the more difficult jump content of the SP competition.

I disagree with your conclusions. Under CoP, which I understand is not OBO, but is supposed to be the codification of existing relative difficulty, a base 3F/3T is worth 10.1, or 25% more than a base 3Z/2T. While 3F/3T is still ~10% less difficult than the 3Z/3R, we won't know until next year whether Ando's 1/2 turn cheat on the 3R will count as a 3R or 2R; a 3Z/2R is worth over 20% less than a fully rotated 3F/3T. Arakawa had a tilt on the 3Z and a cheat on the 3T on her 3Z/3T, as well as a cheat on her 3F. Kwan had a small flutz and Cohen had a noticeable flutz. Comparing quality -- height, run-out from both jumps, rhythm -- Kostner's 3F/3T was on par with Ando's 3Z/3R and a little better than Sebestyen's 3Z/2T, and was superior to Arakawa's 3Z/3T, Kwan's 3FZ/2T, and Cohen's 3FZ/2T; neither Kwan's nor Cohen's combination had much height or flow-out, although both of Cohen's jumps were right on the music. Factoring both difficulty and quality, the only SP jump combination that was better than Kostner's was Ando's, if it is universally agreed that a 3R at the end of the combination should always be given .5 turn cheat.

The difference in difficulty between a 3F and a 3R is quite slight slight, or a little over 5%. However, if you also include the difficult in the entrance, the backwards turning edge entrance directly into the 3R was more difficult than any of the steps into the 3F, especially when you consider that Ando was the only skater to go directly into the 3F without delay. Kostner's spins were quite good, and she has good line in her spirals; factoring those in, Ando would have had, at most, only a slight advantage in tech. However, under OBO, the judges are under no obligation to weight the elements correctly. They can be wowed by a 3Z/3R compared to a 3F/3T, when the actual comparatively difficulty is closer to 3Z/3R vs. 3F/3T.

As far as presentation, Kostner was the fastest of the skaters in the last two SP flights, with superb edges, fine posture, excellent responsiveness to her music, sureness and flow, and she was all over the ice surface. Ando was quite heavy in her movements and matched neither the flow, lightness, nor interpretive qualities. I would have put Sebestyen above Kostner in presentation, but her technical difficulty was higher, and in the SP, tech breaks the tie.

The SP format is particularly good for Kostner. Anything beyong 2.5 minutes exposes her flaws, particularly her newly acquired bad telegraph into toe jumps, which gets worse as the program goes on, the sameness of her musical selections, and her tendency to die in the last 30-45 seconds of a LP. If Kostner had landed all of her jumps, she might have deserved to be in the top 6, but when she misses them in a LP, she doesn't have the stamina or overall quality of the other top six skaters (at this competition), Poykio, Rochette, or Suguri.

[Mathman]

Whenever I read debates of this sort it brings home to me what an impossible task the judges face. They, too, know that the difference in difficulty between a 3F and a 3R is 5%, that Arakawa had a tilt on the 3Z, and all the rest of it. Yet despite their years of training, we still see subjective appraisals and placements all over the chart.

About conspiracy theories, Carolina has the home-court advantage in Torino. Will this play a role when it comes time to give out the bronze medal? I can't help but think of the two somewhat unexpected medals in men's and dance at Dortmund last year.

Mathman

[RIskatingfan]

Whenever I read debates of this sort it brings home to me what an impossible task the judges face. They, too, know that the difference in difficulty between a 3F and a 3R is 5%, that Arakawa had a tilt on the 3Z, and all the rest of it. Yet despite their years of training, we still see subjective appraisals and placements all over the chart. Mathman

Definitely, Mathman. When we have so many disagreements online, imagine how it is for the judges LOL I won't comment on politics, I prefer to talk about the skating than conspiracy theories and I would wish that more posters would be like this... It's sad to see threads about skating turning into politics and blocs discussions where in the most part there aren't substantiated evidence or proof of it. I believe politics play a factor, yes, but when people get too caught up on the politics they forget to see what is going on on the ice. And sometimes they miss something that justifies a placement, while they are busy discussing the politics. Politics are a factor - not THE factor. THE factor is the skating. Besides, like we already said, even the judges disagree themselves, why can't those disagreements be attributed to different ways of watching the skating rather than being attributed to politics and corruption all the time? Maybe it's a wrong approach, but at least when we're talking about skating we have a basis, when we talk about politics there is only endless suppositions.

Hockeyfan, thanks for the post, it was interesting to read it and it definitely brought some relevant points But first, COP wasn't used, which means that under OBO rules the "factoring" can change. You were dealing with percentages and all it takes is the percentage in one rule to change and your analysis would have a different result. Also, COP isn't perfect, so I always take some exception when people use it to define elements in terms of quality. Yeah, but we gotta start from somewhere, though LOL So it was interesting to read your analysis of the programs with COP. Personally, I think Ando's loop would be considered a triple, but maybe I am wrong.

What about the rest of the ladies in the SP? Where would you place them? I thought this was one of the hardest portions of an event to judge. The top 6 skated clean, all with different jump combinations and of course, then the different strengths of each skater plays a role, and then there is the time problem on Kwan's program.

[euterpe]

I have no problem with Kostner's placement in the SP. It was her placement in the FS that was outrageous. I would have ranked the FS in this order:
Arakawa
Kwan
Cohen
Suguri
Sebestyen
Ando
Rochette
Kostner

Which would have yielded these final placements:
Shizuka ARAKAWA
Sasha COHEN
Michelle KWAN
Miki ANDO
Julia SEBESTYEN
Fumie SUGURI
Carolina KOSTNER
Joannie ROCHETTE

[Kwantessence]

Arakawa had a tilt on the 3Z and a cheat on the 3T on her 3Z/3T, as well as a cheat on her 3F. Kwan had a small flutz and Cohen had a noticeable flutz....

Considering that this was the technical portion of the competition, I found it interesting that some judges CHOSE to ignore the incompletion of the technical requirements, while others did not. How else can you explain the 6 x 5.8, & 1 x 5.9 tech marks out of 14 judges? Perhaps the Tarasova mystique was a factor in those 7 tech marks. Compare this convenient "judging" of Arakawa's MANDATORY non-deductions to the convenient "judging" of Michelle's
NON-MANDATORY deductions and one is left wondering why the judges go through the pretense of placing the skaters at all. It's not like the judges have to pay attention to the completed/incompleted elements or assess the quality of these elements in order that the skater's placements is a direct result of their performance. Who knows what the outcome of the competition would have been if the mandatory deductions were taken or the non-mandatory were not taken. How would these variables affect the implementation of each skaters LP strategy?

After the timing issue, I find the ISU decision to increase the sp timing to 2:50 seconds simply amusing.

RIskatingfan Quote:

"Politics are a factor - not THE factor. THE factor is the skating."

While I agree that politics are a factor, along with stylistic preferences etc... in a subjective sport, I believe that the problems occur when it appears that politics was the deciding factor in the placement of the skaters rather that the performance of that skater. Just like posters on messageboards, judges can rationalize any decision depending on what skating elements they choose to give the most or least importance. This is where I think the ISU should be even more specific in detailing how all skating elements should be valued so that the outcome of any competition would not change because different judges are on the panel. In other words all the judges are on the same page when it comes to assessing the quality of ANY skating element. If this could be achieved then the result of any competition would not vary whether you had 14 USA judges, 14 Russian judges, 14 Japanese judges, or one ISU judge. As it stands now, there are past competitions where the outcome would have been different if the panel of judges were changed.
Subjectivity should not have such a large influence on the results of any sport.

[Mathman]

Hi, Kwantessence. What's your opinion on the CoP? Do you think that it will help the judges come to agreement about the quality of skating elements, or will subjectivity and possibly politics still rule the roost?

Mathman

[Kwantessence]

Hi, Kwantessence. What's your opinion on the CoP? Do you think that it will help the judges come to agreement about the quality of skating elements, or will subjectivity and possibly politics still rule the roost?

Mathman

I believe that Cop has some very good things to offer and some that should be modified. On the whole I like the fact that skating elements have specific values and the assessment of their quality can also be be given specific numerical values. Theoretically it means that all skaters will get credit for the elements in their programs, whether they are ranked #1, or #50 in the world. What COP still doesn't adress is the variance in defining the quality of an element or program components. Hopefully the ISU has poured over the results of last year's grand prix, to identify the muddy areas that caused spreads of
-2 to +1 on Suguri's 3lz2t at the grand prix final. I am quite skeptical of any judging system that needs the "secrecy" of anonymous judges and random selection of judges marks, in order to get the correct results. What does that say about the underlying quality of the process?

As long as the criteria for assessing the quality of any element varies from judge to judge, then subjectivity will undoubtedly have a significant influence on the outcome of any competition. If the ISU can further fine tune the areas I have mentioned, then political marks should be much more readily identified, and those judges should not be eligible to judge any ISU skating event again.