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Thread: Predictions Time!

  1. #1
    Keeper of Michelle's Nose berthes ghost's Avatar
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    Predictions Time!

    http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/g...adies_2004.pdf

    I'm gonna go with:
    gold - Kwan
    silver - Cohen
    bronze - Ando

    http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/g...s_men_2004.pdf

    I'm gonna go with:
    gold - Jubert
    silver - Weiss
    bronze - Griazev

    http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/g...pairs_2004.pdf

    I'm gonna go with:
    gold - T&M
    silver - Z&Z
    bronze - O&S

    http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/g...ncing_2004.pdf

    I'm gonna go with:
    gold - G&G
    silver - B&A
    bronze - R&G

  2. #2
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    For Skate America:

    LADIES
    Kwan
    Cohen
    Ota
    Liashenko
    Ando

    I don't think CoP will be kind to Ando. She needs to develop musicality and stamina.

    MEN
    Joubert
    Lindemann
    Jahnke
    Lysacek
    Weiss

    PAIRS
    Totmianina/Marinin
    Zhang/Zhang
    Petrova/Tikhonov
    Obertas/Slavnov
    Don/Hunt

    DANCE
    Belbin/Agosto
    Grushina/Goncharov
    Chait/Sakhonovsky
    Kerr/Kerr
    Romanovskaya/Grachev

  3. #3
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    Hmmm...

    LADIES
    1. Cohen - Based on last season, I feel she'll start out fairly solidly.
    2. Kwan - Based on numerous seasons, I don't think Michelle is going to start with a bang (I could be wrong...and would love it if I am!)
    3. Ando - I don't think COP will be very kind to her either, but I'll think she'll do enough for a medal.

    MEN
    1. Joubert - He'd have to really screw this one up to lose.
    2. Lindemann - I hope the World medal wasn't one of those rare "hometown" moments
    3. Weiss

    PAIRS
    1. T&M
    2. Z&Z
    3. P&T (Ugh...though it would have been an UGHHH! had they not improved somewhat in my eyes last year!)

    DANCE
    1. G&G
    2. B&A (I hope they can win the Gold, but I just think the Ukrainians will be favored)
    3. C&S

  4. #4
    Keeper of Michelle's Nose berthes ghost's Avatar
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    She may start out slow, but Kwan has yet to surrender SA.

    Not very scientific, but I just have this hunch that Lindemann was a one hit wonder. Probably because every performance I saw of his pre Dortmund was just painfully awful.

    I think that Obertas is overdue for a pull up over P&T who, although improved last season, have been kicking around too long in the also-ran category.

    C&S are a safer bet, I know, but again I'm unscientific. A dance podium without Russians just doesn't exist in my world. Sorta like saying a woman or an African-American is gonna be the next president. It's not impossible, but I'm just too pessimistic to see it happening in my lifetime.

  5. #5
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    Ladies is a toss-up between Kwan and Cohen. The presence of Kwan may make Cohen a bit nervous (this is not a cheesefest competition), but Kwan is not always at her best at the start of the season. Maybe it will be different this year, now that she has a real coach who, it appears, is a taskmaster. I'm not enthused about Ando's chances. She is basically a very unfinished skater trying to make it in the Senior ranks, and CoP is looking for finish and balance. IMHO, Ota has an as good as or better than shot at the podium. I'm not expecting much from Nikodinov, but maybe she could pull off a major surprise, as Kirk did last year.

    In the Men, Joubert tends to run either hot or cold at GP events. I think he'll eithe win or finish 4th. I agree about Lindemann---he was pretty bad at the GP last season. He may have had the performance of a lifetime at Dortmund, sort of like Paul Wylie at the '92 Olympics or Sarah Hughes at the '02 Olympics. I'm not convinced he has changed overnight into a phenom. Mikey is like Joubert--he's either good or awful. Lysacek and/or Jahnke DO have a chance to shine here.

    The Russian Pairs will no doubt win the gold, and the Chinese should be on the podium, too. Petrova/Tikh were pretty impressive last season, for them. I'm not sure the third Russian team is in position to upset them just yet. I'm hoping that one of the US teams will at least finish 4th here--don't care which one, ANY one will do!

    I think B/A have a shot at gold once again. G/G seem to get off to a slower and slower start each season, and the same is true of the Israelis.

  6. #6
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Ladies:
    1. Michelle (this is if Sasha and Michelle both skate clean. I think Michelle will take the win. But I think it is 100% up in the air. I also think whoever takes the win at Campbells between them will influence this.)
    2. Sasha
    3. Ando(i think COP is going to hurt her, but there arent any other skaters that I can see medaling here, but if not Ando thenYukina Ota)

    Men:
    1. Joubert
    2. Weiss
    3. Lindemann or Lysacek. If Lindemann continues to pull through then he'll take it. But if he was jsut having that hometown performance, then I think Lysacek will rise to the occassion. Actually Lysacek has a perfect opportunity to get some focus on him at SA this year.

    Pairs:
    1. TOmianina and Marinin (This should be fairly easy for them. Zhang and Zhang are the main competition they've got. But if they make a mistake I can see Z/Z taking the opportunity and the win. )
    2. Zhang and Zhang.
    3. Changing this to I don't know. Because I don't really like any of my options. I keep changing my mind>so bronze is up for grabs.
    Last edited by Chrystia Mee; 08-13-2004 at 01:52 PM.

  7. #7
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    I agree with most of these predictions. I think Ando will place higher than Ota. It will be a toss up between Michelle and Sasha.

    I am not so sure about the pairs title though. Zhang & Zhang have progressed every year and IMO they could beat T&M this year. Also O&S could move up to bronze.

    I would have to be crazy to disagree with Joubert's win in mens. However, silver could go to several of the remaining contenders- Weiss, Lysacek, Lindemann.
    Last edited by Vash01; 07-18-2004 at 12:29 PM. Reason: More specific

  8. #8
    Arm Chair Skate Fan show 42's Avatar
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    Pretty much a toss up between Michelle and Sasha, I'd bump Michael Weiss up to the top three and move Zhang and Zhang (please) up over T and M.....42

  9. #9
    Crazy Armchair Fan/Resident Nerd
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    SA guesses...

    I'm back!....did anyone miss me...anyone?....Bueller?

    Anyways, here's what I would say:

    Ladies:
    Gold: Kwan (SA always a good event for her and she's always a threat)
    Silver: Cohen (though she's good @ the start of the GP and came out swinging last year, so these two could be reversed)
    Bronze: I would say Ando b/c of technical merit, but it is her first senior season and the first under CoP. She's prolly a good shot for the podium, but I would go for the extremely-underrated Susanna Pöykiö, who always seems to come out of nowhere

    Men:
    Gold: Joubert--no question
    Silver: Weiss (though how that man keeps getting on the podium is beyond me )
    Bronze: Griazev would be nice, but he seems too erratic. I would go w/ Lysacek

    Pairs
    Gold: T/M---they're the reigning World champs, and they've gotten so solid in the past few years
    Silver: Z/Z
    Bronze: A toss-up between O/S and P/T---I'd say P/T on past performance

    Dance:
    Gold: G/G (they always win like 3 GP events and then do nothing much else impressive the rest of the year---but maybe that's just me)
    Silver: B/A (top 2 could very well be reversed---depends on what these guys do for a FD)
    Bronze: I would LOVE to see K/K up there (rule Britannia, baby! ), but it prolly won't happen. C/S are the safest choice. I don't know much about R/G, but they seemed to have been dominant as heck on the Jr circuit

  10. #10
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    You're thinking Matt. I like that for predictions - not just a list of your favorites.

    However for me it's much too early and if we get a TV version of the Cambell's it still wont be enough becaus who knows what they were doing all summer? I could be ready to predict GPF if enough of the contestants are shown in the GPs.

    It's Worlds where I make a fool of myself, although I only missed the Ladies. But then, how many really predicted Shizuka to win in 2004? I had Irina coming back to life and maybe I'll I go again with her in 2005, Moscow, you know.

    Joe

  11. #11
    Go NJ Devils
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    Ladies
    1-Kwan
    *I think Arutunian will exploit CoP better than Wagner.
    *I'm not sure Cohen can do her spirals or spins any better than she does now, and I'm not sure how she can change them to make them more complex. I think any improvements or changes that Kwan makes in these areas or in footwork will make more of an impact than Cohen's repeated excellence.
    *I expect Arutunian's training to affect Kwan's basic jumping technique, while I expect Wagner will work with Cohen to do more, not better, jumps.

    2-Cohen
    *I think she'll come out strong, but I'm not sure Wagner's choreography, at least what we've seen of hers so far, will be all that CoP friendly. However, Cohen's may get the same transitions and choreography scores as she got from Tarasova's programs, based on last year.
    *I expect harder jump content than last year. But I don't expect the flutz to be fixed.

    3-Ando
    *I expect Ando to have gained a lot of confidence from last year's Worlds.
    *She has excellent jumping technique, good edges, and mostly solid positions in her spins with good centering. Her spiral positions are generally weak, but not in the extremely hard last spiral in her SP in Dortmund, where she changed the position of her straightened leg from side to back. The question is whether the 3Z/3R will be called underrotated under CoP, which will downgrade her technical score.
    *I think her Program Elements scores will be her undoing against Kwan and Cohen.

    Without meltdows from the top Ladies, particularly in the SP, I don't see a podium finish for Liashenko, and I don't think Poykio will ever get credit for her superb presentation. Nikodinov could be a spoiler, if she stays on her feet and Ando has an attack of nerves in the LP.

    Men
    I think the seeds will take it in order:
    1-Joubert
    *With his silver in Dortmund, I think he's over the hurdle of showing promise -- GP's and Euros -- and fading at Worlds and Olympics.
    *I expect a full year with Yagudin and another summer with Tarasova will show improved presentation.
    *Although I think Time is one of the best Men's SP's, I think Joubert was hampered by using it again last year. (I didn't see a performance of it in 2004 that matched his best from the previous season.) I look forward to a new SP, and hope it shows a different style and mood than his LP.

    2-Lindemann
    *One of the biggest questions is whether Dortmund was a one-time fluke. A fluke of consistency, that is, because his talent was clear in Malmo. If he had missed the podium, I might expect him to fade, but I think he'll gain confidence from his bronze.
    *Rumor (on FSU) has it that he's keeping his SP from last year. For him I think this is a good move, because without qualis at Skate America, if he has nerves, I expect them to come out in the SP, and having it in muscle memory will be an advantage. It's a wonderful, character-filled program, and it fits him. (I thought his presentation in this program was underrated in Dortmund and that he should have been 2nd in the SP over Joubert.)
    *Under CoP, if he has a shaky short, he could make up the points in the LP.
    *His LP this year was CoP friendly.
    *He landed his first 4T/3T combination in competition weeks before Worlds '04. He'll have plenty more under his belt in practice before competing again.

    3-Weiss
    *Because he's always there, and unless Griazev gains a lot of control over the summer, or Lysacek gets better choreography and starts controlling his arms, I just don't see anyone else on the podium.

    Pairs
    1-Totmianina/Marinin
    *T/M are making strides towards more lyrical choreography that suits them. I don't know if they'll use Art on Ice again this year, but even though it's front-loaded with elements -- I don't think it would beat a clean Shen/Zhao program like Nutcracker, with the 3Tw and Th3Sal late in the program -- it shows their strengths, particularly edges and line, so much more than character programs like Cotton Club or West Side Story.
    *Although Zhang/Zhang have some elements that are better than T/M's -- particularly the twists and now even the death spirals, which Totmianina squats into -- T/M have wonderful rhythm on their jumps and very competitive throws, particularly her edges out of them.
    *Although Z/Z's lifts are more difficult generally, Totmianina has great positions in theirs -- stretch, toe point, a great back. T/M also take their time in the lifts and have the impact of positions. Z/Z go so fast and change positions so quickly, it's hard to appreciate the whole. (Compared to the gasp they get from the hang-time in their throws and twist.)
    *T/M had to be sick and weak to lose to Z/Z last year.

    2-Zhang/Zhang
    *I think there is a pecking order in China, and that no matter how much money Zhang/Zhang make, they'll remain clobbered by mediocre choreography for their LP.
    *Of all of the Chinese pairs, they have more base unison at their age than the others. They perform their jumps very close together, and they look comfortable in the transitions from fast to slow (except for the pairs spin, which needs fixing) and parallel to intertwined (except for the pairs spin, which needs fixing.)
    *They're getting there, but they still don't have an interpretive arc in their LP's. Still, I think their superb elements and speed will put them over Pet/Tik and O/S.

    3-Petrova/Tikhonov
    *They are among the best SP skaters. I think they can take a sizable lead over O/S in the SP, which may tide them over in the LP.
    *They made great strides in speed last year, at least in the SP and for the first 3 minutes of the LP.
    *They have a real coupleness about them. Even though he tires easily, and she is much better than he is -- I think she's a gorgeous skater -- there's a rapport between them -- I think she deserves better, at least in a skating partner -- that doesn't exist (at least yet) between O/S.
    *This year will show O/S's first Moskvina LP. I think there will be kinks in it early in the season. (By Worlds, unless there's trouble between them working together, watch out.) Pet/Tik are so experienced, I think it will carry them over, especially early in the season.

    Dance
    1-Belbin/Agosto
    *Under CoP, if they get a rational FD --i.e., one without 1,000 cuts -- I think they will be able to beat G/G.

    2-Grushina/Goncharov
    *I think last year's FD choreography was generic, and I don't expect much more out of this year's FD.
    *I don't think they're evenly matched, which leads toward "highlights" FD's, when G/G's greatest strengths are her line and edges and relative fusion compared to B/A.

    3-Chait/Sakhnovski
    *There's really no other competition for bronze unless they really wipe out and Wing/Lowe add a lot of difficulty to their programs. I bet Kerr/Kerr will give quite a show, though.
    Last edited by hockeyfan228; 08-03-2004 at 07:53 PM.

  12. #12
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Just reading some very astute posts on predictions for Skate America. Soooo, iI'm going to add my 1 cents:

    Miki will land the quad and give an adequate presentation to win.
    Sasha will skate all her extensions beautifully land a 3x3 for a second place.
    sussana Poykio will edge out Michelle with a faultless rountine

    Check out Phaneuf and Ota for supsetting the podium if any of the above 3 falter..

    Joubert should win despite a dull presentation. his tricks will bring in the gold.
    Stefan Lindemann will liven up the arena if he repeats his Dortmund routine and get the silver
    Griazev, Jahnke, Lysacek all tie for 3rd place.

    Keep your eye on Gao!

    Lots of OOOs and AAAHHs for Zhang and Zhang for a sneak in win.
    T&M will do a workman like routine for the silver as will
    P & T for a bronze.

    Don't over look Orscher and Lucash for a breakout performance.

    All the seeds in the Dance for one, two, three with Tanith and Ben for gold.

    It's time for Wing and Lowe to make a move. Maybe upse the podium.

    Remember, you read it here, first!!

    Joe
    Last edited by Joesitz; 08-04-2004 at 05:30 PM.

  13. #13
    Thank God for Stephane Lambiel and Matt Savoie! shine's Avatar
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    Wow, some people talk about the ladies competition as if Ota didn't exit.
    She did underrotate many of her jumps last season, but she also fully rotates from time to time. But jumps aside, I always thought that had she competed at Worlds last year, her LP would have been the most interesting in the ladies competition, and quite CoP friendly.

  14. #14
    Go NJ Devils
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    Ota exists, but she's not a proven LP skater yet, while Ando, Cohen, and Kwan are. Her LP at Skate Canada got the 7th highest Program Elements score in the GP (including Finals), though not in the Cohen league, but only the 54th highest Technical Elements score (of 72 skates). The base difficulty of Ota's LP last year was rather low. Even if she had rotated all of her jumps, she'd still have had lower base difficulty than Cohen and Ando (using her Worlds LP as a basis for comparison), and her execution of most of her elements, except her spiral, was weaker than Ando's. (She barely got any points above base.)

    It could happen that Ota skates a clean, brilliant program with increased difficulty, but there's no history to indicate that she will.

  15. #15
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Shine - An Ota win would please me no end. She is for me the best lyrical skater in the business right now. I'd love to see her in the Worlds. She needs the practice!!!

    Hockey Fan - I respect your facts but for me, last year was last year. This is a new one and that is why I have fun with this kind of thread. We have not seen anyone skate since the Worlds and Cheesfest for the old timers; the GPs for those struggling, and the 'breakthrough skaters coming up.

    Joe

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