Predictions Time!

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/gp_entries_ladies_2004.pdf

I'm gonna go with:
gold - Kwan
silver - Cohen
bronze - Ando

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/gp_entries_men_2004.pdf

I'm gonna go with:
gold - Jubert
silver - Weiss
bronze - Griazev

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/gp_entries_pairs_2004.pdf

I'm gonna go with:
gold - T&M
silver - Z&Z
bronze - O&S

http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2004/gp_entries_icedancing_2004.pdf

I'm gonna go with:
gold - G&G
silver - B&A
bronze - R&G

For Skate America:

LADIES
Kwan
Cohen
Ota
Liashenko
Ando

I don't think CoP will be kind to Ando. She needs to develop musicality and stamina.

MEN
Joubert
Lindemann
Jahnke
Lysacek
Weiss

PAIRS
Totmianina/Marinin
Zhang/Zhang
Petrova/Tikhonov
Obertas/Slavnov
Don/Hunt

DANCE
Belbin/Agosto
Grushina/Goncharov
Chait/Sakhonovsky
Kerr/Kerr
Romanovskaya/Grachev

Hmmm...

LADIES
1. Cohen - Based on last season, I feel she'll start out fairly solidly.
2. Kwan - Based on numerous seasons, I don't think Michelle is going to start with a bang (I could be wrong...and would love it if I am!)
3. Ando - I don't think COP will be very kind to her either, but I'll think she'll do enough for a medal.

MEN
1. Joubert - He'd have to really screw this one up to lose.
2. Lindemann - I hope the World medal wasn't one of those rare "hometown" moments
3. Weiss

PAIRS
1. T&M
2. Z&Z
3. P&T (Ugh...though it would have been an UGHHH! had they not improved somewhat in my eyes last year!)

DANCE
1. G&G
2. B&A (I hope they can win the Gold, but I just think the Ukrainians will be favored)
3. C&S

She may start out slow, but Kwan has yet to surrender SA.

Not very scientific, but I just have this hunch that Lindemann was a one hit wonder. Probably because every performance I saw of his pre Dortmund was just painfully awful.

I think that Obertas is overdue for a pull up over P&T who, although improved last season, have been kicking around too long in the also-ran category.

C&S are a safer bet, I know, but again I'm unscientific. A dance podium without Russians just doesn't exist in my world. Sorta like saying a woman or an African-American is gonna be the next president. It's not impossible, but I'm just too pessimistic to see it happening in my lifetime.

Ladies is a toss-up between Kwan and Cohen. The presence of Kwan may make Cohen a bit nervous (this is not a cheesefest competition), but Kwan is not always at her best at the start of the season. Maybe it will be different this year, now that she has a real coach who, it appears, is a taskmaster. I'm not enthused about Ando's chances. She is basically a very unfinished skater trying to make it in the Senior ranks, and CoP is looking for finish and balance. IMHO, Ota has an as good as or better than shot at the podium. I'm not expecting much from Nikodinov, but maybe she could pull off a major surprise, as Kirk did last year.

In the Men, Joubert tends to run either hot or cold at GP events. I think he'll eithe win or finish 4th. I agree about Lindemann---he was pretty bad at the GP last season. He may have had the performance of a lifetime at Dortmund, sort of like Paul Wylie at the '92 Olympics or Sarah Hughes at the '02 Olympics. I'm not convinced he has changed overnight into a phenom. Mikey is like Joubert--he's either good or awful. Lysacek and/or Jahnke DO have a chance to shine here.

The Russian Pairs will no doubt win the gold, and the Chinese should be on the podium, too. Petrova/Tikh were pretty impressive last season, for them. I'm not sure the third Russian team is in position to upset them just yet. I'm hoping that one of the US teams will at least finish 4th here--don't care which one, ANY one will do!

I think B/A have a shot at gold once again. G/G seem to get off to a slower and slower start each season, and the same is true of the Israelis.

Ladies:
1. Michelle (this is if Sasha and Michelle both skate clean. I think Michelle will take the win. But I think it is 100% up in the air. I also think whoever takes the win at Campbells between them will influence this.)
2. Sasha
3. Ando(i think COP is going to hurt her, but there arent any other skaters that I can see medaling here, but if not Ando thenYukina Ota)

Men:
1. Joubert
2. Weiss
3. Lindemann or Lysacek. If Lindemann continues to pull through then he'll take it. But if he was jsut having that hometown performance, then I think Lysacek will rise to the occassion. Actually Lysacek has a perfect opportunity to get some focus on him at SA this year.

Pairs:
1. TOmianina and Marinin (This should be fairly easy for them. Zhang and Zhang are the main competition they've got. But if they make a mistake I can see Z/Z taking the opportunity and the win. )
2. Zhang and Zhang.
3. Changing this to I don't know. Because I don't really like any of my options. I keep changing my mind>so bronze is up for grabs.

I agree with most of these predictions. I think Ando will place higher than Ota. It will be a toss up between Michelle and Sasha.

I am not so sure about the pairs title though. Zhang & Zhang have progressed every year and IMO they could beat T&M this year. Also O&S could move up to bronze.

I would have to be crazy to disagree with Joubert's win in mens. However, silver could go to several of the remaining contenders- Weiss, Lysacek, Lindemann.

Pretty much a toss up between Michelle and Sasha, I'd bump Michael Weiss up to the top three and move Zhang and Zhang (please) up over T and M.....42

SA guesses...

I'm back!....did anyone miss me...anyone?....Bueller?

Anyways, here's what I would say:

Ladies:
Gold: Kwan (SA always a good event for her and she's always a threat)
Silver: Cohen (though she's good @ the start of the GP and came out swinging last year, so these two could be reversed)
Bronze: I would say Ando b/c of technical merit, but it is her first senior season and the first under CoP. She's prolly a good shot for the podium, but I would go for the extremely-underrated Susanna Pöykiö, who always seems to come out of nowhere

Men:
Gold: Joubert--no question
Silver: Weiss (though how that man keeps getting on the podium is beyond me )
Bronze: Griazev would be nice, but he seems too erratic. I would go w/ Lysacek

Pairs
Gold: T/M---they're the reigning World champs, and they've gotten so solid in the past few years
Silver: Z/Z
Bronze: A toss-up between O/S and P/T---I'd say P/T on past performance

Dance:
Gold: G/G (they always win like 3 GP events and then do nothing much else impressive the rest of the year---but maybe that's just me)
Silver: B/A (top 2 could very well be reversed---depends on what these guys do for a FD)
Bronze: I would LOVE to see K/K up there (rule Britannia, baby! ), but it prolly won't happen. C/S are the safest choice. I don't know much about R/G, but they seemed to have been dominant as heck on the Jr circuit

You're thinking Matt. I like that for predictions - not just a list of your favorites.

However for me it's much too early and if we get a TV version of the Cambell's it still wont be enough becaus who knows what they were doing all summer? I could be ready to predict GPF if enough of the contestants are shown in the GPs.

It's Worlds where I make a fool of myself, although I only missed the Ladies. But then, how many really predicted Shizuka to win in 2004? I had Irina coming back to life and maybe I'll I go again with her in 2005, Moscow, you know.

Joe

Ladies
1-Kwan
*I think Arutunian will exploit CoP better than Wagner.
*I'm not sure Cohen can do her spirals or spins any better than she does now, and I'm not sure how she can change them to make them more complex. I think any improvements or changes that Kwan makes in these areas or in footwork will make more of an impact than Cohen's repeated excellence.
*I expect Arutunian's training to affect Kwan's basic jumping technique, while I expect Wagner will work with Cohen to do more, not better, jumps.

2-Cohen
*I think she'll come out strong, but I'm not sure Wagner's choreography, at least what we've seen of hers so far, will be all that CoP friendly. However, Cohen's may get the same transitions and choreography scores as she got from Tarasova's programs, based on last year.
*I expect harder jump content than last year. But I don't expect the flutz to be fixed.

3-Ando
*I expect Ando to have gained a lot of confidence from last year's Worlds.
*She has excellent jumping technique, good edges, and mostly solid positions in her spins with good centering. Her spiral positions are generally weak, but not in the extremely hard last spiral in her SP in Dortmund, where she changed the position of her straightened leg from side to back. The question is whether the 3Z/3R will be called underrotated under CoP, which will downgrade her technical score.
*I think her Program Elements scores will be her undoing against Kwan and Cohen.

Without meltdows from the top Ladies, particularly in the SP, I don't see a podium finish for Liashenko, and I don't think Poykio will ever get credit for her superb presentation. Nikodinov could be a spoiler, if she stays on her feet and Ando has an attack of nerves in the LP.

Men
I think the seeds will take it in order:
1-Joubert
*With his silver in Dortmund, I think he's over the hurdle of showing promise -- GP's and Euros -- and fading at Worlds and Olympics.
*I expect a full year with Yagudin and another summer with Tarasova will show improved presentation.
*Although I think Time is one of the best Men's SP's, I think Joubert was hampered by using it again last year. (I didn't see a performance of it in 2004 that matched his best from the previous season.) I look forward to a new SP, and hope it shows a different style and mood than his LP.

2-Lindemann
*One of the biggest questions is whether Dortmund was a one-time fluke. A fluke of consistency, that is, because his talent was clear in Malmo. If he had missed the podium, I might expect him to fade, but I think he'll gain confidence from his bronze.
*Rumor (on FSU) has it that he's keeping his SP from last year. For him I think this is a good move, because without qualis at Skate America, if he has nerves, I expect them to come out in the SP, and having it in muscle memory will be an advantage. It's a wonderful, character-filled program, and it fits him. (I thought his presentation in this program was underrated in Dortmund and that he should have been 2nd in the SP over Joubert.)
*Under CoP, if he has a shaky short, he could make up the points in the LP.
*His LP this year was CoP friendly.
*He landed his first 4T/3T combination in competition weeks before Worlds '04. He'll have plenty more under his belt in practice before competing again.

3-Weiss
*Because he's always there, and unless Griazev gains a lot of control over the summer, or Lysacek gets better choreography and starts controlling his arms, I just don't see anyone else on the podium.

Pairs
1-Totmianina/Marinin
*T/M are making strides towards more lyrical choreography that suits them. I don't know if they'll use Art on Ice again this year, but even though it's front-loaded with elements -- I don't think it would beat a clean Shen/Zhao program like Nutcracker, with the 3Tw and Th3Sal late in the program -- it shows their strengths, particularly edges and line, so much more than character programs like Cotton Club or West Side Story.
*Although Zhang/Zhang have some elements that are better than T/M's -- particularly the twists and now even the death spirals, which Totmianina squats into -- T/M have wonderful rhythm on their jumps and very competitive throws, particularly her edges out of them.
*Although Z/Z's lifts are more difficult generally, Totmianina has great positions in theirs -- stretch, toe point, a great back. T/M also take their time in the lifts and have the impact of positions. Z/Z go so fast and change positions so quickly, it's hard to appreciate the whole. (Compared to the gasp they get from the hang-time in their throws and twist.)
*T/M had to be sick and weak to lose to Z/Z last year.

2-Zhang/Zhang
*I think there is a pecking order in China, and that no matter how much money Zhang/Zhang make, they'll remain clobbered by mediocre choreography for their LP.
*Of all of the Chinese pairs, they have more base unison at their age than the others. They perform their jumps very close together, and they look comfortable in the transitions from fast to slow (except for the pairs spin, which needs fixing) and parallel to intertwined (except for the pairs spin, which needs fixing.)
*They're getting there, but they still don't have an interpretive arc in their LP's. Still, I think their superb elements and speed will put them over Pet/Tik and O/S.

3-Petrova/Tikhonov
*They are among the best SP skaters. I think they can take a sizable lead over O/S in the SP, which may tide them over in the LP.
*They made great strides in speed last year, at least in the SP and for the first 3 minutes of the LP.
*They have a real coupleness about them. Even though he tires easily, and she is much better than he is -- I think she's a gorgeous skater -- there's a rapport between them -- I think she deserves better, at least in a skating partner -- that doesn't exist (at least yet) between O/S.
*This year will show O/S's first Moskvina LP. I think there will be kinks in it early in the season. (By Worlds, unless there's trouble between them working together, watch out.) Pet/Tik are so experienced, I think it will carry them over, especially early in the season.

Dance
1-Belbin/Agosto
*Under CoP, if they get a rational FD --i.e., one without 1,000 cuts -- I think they will be able to beat G/G.

2-Grushina/Goncharov
*I think last year's FD choreography was generic, and I don't expect much more out of this year's FD.
*I don't think they're evenly matched, which leads toward "highlights" FD's, when G/G's greatest strengths are her line and edges and relative fusion compared to B/A.

3-Chait/Sakhnovski
*There's really no other competition for bronze unless they really wipe out and Wing/Lowe add a lot of difficulty to their programs. I bet Kerr/Kerr will give quite a show, though.

Just reading some very astute posts on predictions for Skate America. Soooo, iI'm going to add my 1 cents:

Miki will land the quad and give an adequate presentation to win.
Sasha will skate all her extensions beautifully land a 3x3 for a second place.
sussana Poykio will edge out Michelle with a faultless rountine

Check out Phaneuf and Ota for supsetting the podium if any of the above 3 falter..

Joubert should win despite a dull presentation. his tricks will bring in the gold.
Stefan Lindemann will liven up the arena if he repeats his Dortmund routine and get the silver
Griazev, Jahnke, Lysacek all tie for 3rd place.

Keep your eye on Gao!

Lots of OOOs and AAAHHs for Zhang and Zhang for a sneak in win.
T&M will do a workman like routine for the silver as will
P & T for a bronze.

Don't over look Orscher and Lucash for a breakout performance.

All the seeds in the Dance for one, two, three with Tanith and Ben for gold.

It's time for Wing and Lowe to make a move. Maybe upse the podium.

Remember, you read it here, first!!

Joe

Wow, some people talk about the ladies competition as if Ota didn't exit.
She did underrotate many of her jumps last season, but she also fully rotates from time to time. But jumps aside, I always thought that had she competed at Worlds last year, her LP would have been the most interesting in the ladies competition, and quite CoP friendly.

Ota exists, but she's not a proven LP skater yet, while Ando, Cohen, and Kwan are. Her LP at Skate Canada got the 7th highest Program Elements score in the GP (including Finals), though not in the Cohen league, but only the 54th highest Technical Elements score (of 72 skates). The base difficulty of Ota's LP last year was rather low. Even if she had rotated all of her jumps, she'd still have had lower base difficulty than Cohen and Ando (using her Worlds LP as a basis for comparison), and her execution of most of her elements, except her spiral, was weaker than Ando's. (She barely got any points above base.)

It could happen that Ota skates a clean, brilliant program with increased difficulty, but there's no history to indicate that she will.

Shine - An Ota win would please me no end. She is for me the best lyrical skater in the business right now. I'd love to see her in the Worlds. She needs the practice!!!

Hockey Fan - I respect your facts but for me, last year was last year. This is a new one and that is why I have fun with this kind of thread. We have not seen anyone skate since the Worlds and Cheesfest for the old timers; the GPs for those struggling, and the 'breakthrough skaters coming up.

Joe

hockeyfan228 said:

Ota exists, but she's not a proven LP skater yet, while Ando, Cohen, and Kwan are. Her LP at Skate Canada got the 7th highest Program Elements score in the GP (including Finals), though not in the Cohen league, but only the 54th highest Technical Elements score (of 72 skates). The base difficulty of Ota's LP last year was rather low. Even if she had rotated all of her jumps, she'd still have had lower base difficulty than Cohen and Ando (using her Worlds LP as a basis for comparison), and her execution of most of her elements, except her spiral, was weaker than Ando's. (She barely got any points above base.)

It could happen that Ota skates a clean, brilliant program with increased difficulty, but there's no history to indicate that she will.

Click to expand...

1) I wouldn't predict this season's GP results based on the scoring from last year. There was a lot of controversial scoring and skaters got very inconsistent scores for the same elements from one event to another, and some were just down right unfair. One could argue that the program component scores were marked rather poorly (such as Kostner getting something as low as 6.5 in SS while Cohen receiving at least 8.25 and Onda 7.0+) and it was doubtful whether the judges were actually marking according to the CoP rulebook or just basing their scores on skaters' reputation, much like what they did with the presentation mark under the 6.0 system. I am expecting that this season this aspect of judging will greatly improve.
2) Ando didn't compete under CoP. How could you be sure that had she been marked by CoP, her program wouldn't get marked ridiculously like many skaters' had? Likewise, just because Ota didn't get any points above base, it doesn't mean they didn't deserve to.
3) I see you are mainly talking about the PE scores.

shine said:

1) I wouldn't predict this season's GP results based on the scoring from last year. There was a lot of controversial scoring and skaters got very inconsistent scores for the same elements from one event to another, and some were just down right unfair.

Click to expand...

I agree that judges did not mark down flutzes and telegraphs consistently -- Cohen's and Liashenko's scores, for example -- and that the double dip for underrotations was confusing. However, there was little or no controversy over the callers' determinations for underrotations. I don't expect Alexei Urmanov, for example, to become any less competent next year in calling whether a jump has been rotated. There were many instances where competitors changed their elements from competition to competition over the season and they performed elements differently from competition to competition, hence making the changes in marks deserved. Others marks were giant question marks, but that doesn't affect the base score.

Many of Ota's deductions were for underrotations. So unless she's changed her technique so that she can land her jumps, her base technical score will continue to be significantly lower than skaters who land their elements, and even if she lands her intended program, her attempted base difficulty is far less than Ando's, without taking performance into consideration. I don't expect Ando to become any less excellent technically, even if Ota improves.

shine said:

One could argue that the program component scores were marked rather poorly (such as Kostner getting something as low as 6.5 in SS while Cohen receiving at least 8.25 and Onda 7.0+) and it was doubtful whether the judges were actually marking according to the CoP rulebook or just basing their scores on skaters' reputation, much like what they did with the presentation mark under the 6.0 system. I am expecting that this season this aspect of judging will greatly improve.

Click to expand...

If this is the case, I don't see how this would help Ota, who got fantastic PE scores already. If anything, her competitors were undermarked. Ando's choreography by Lee Ann Miler was superb. Her interpretation of Firebird was lacking, but she had a lot more speed and freedom in her SP. Both programs were CoP friendly, with transitions and difficulty. Ota's interpretive skills are better than Ando's, but that's only one of five PE's. If PE's are judged correctly, Ando's scores will be closer to Ota's. If they are judged incorrectly, then Ando should get the same lift that Onda did, based on reputation.

shine said:

2) Ando didn't compete under CoP. How could you be sure that had she been marked by CoP, her program wouldn't get marked ridiculously like many skaters' had? Likewise, just because Ota didn't get any points above base, it doesn't mean they didn't deserve to.

Click to expand...

Impossible to tell what Ando's scores would have been last year, but this year, either a. They'll be marked correctly and the PE scores (all 5) should be close in total (choreography and transitions a wash, interpretation to Ota, skating skills to Ando based on speed and edging, performance/execution close, with Ando having superior performance, but Ota having the delicacy), b. Ando will get extra credit for having come in 4th last year, or c. The scores will have nothing to do with any reality, in which case any prediction would be best done by picking numbers out of a hat.

shine said:

3) I see you are mainly talking about the PE scores.

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??? I was mainly talking about the technical scores, because I'm not sure which way PE scores will sway this year. I have my guesses, mostly favoring Ando (to at least close the gap), but these will be a question until the season starts.

As I said in the original post, Ota could improve a lot over the last year and be a different skater this year, but there's no reason for me to think that she will, any more than a number of other skaters. Ota is lovely, but she has technical flaws. Ando has among the great technical bones in Ladies skating -- speed, edges, great jumping technique, clear positions in spins. It remains to be seen how far she can stretch her interpretive ability, but I predict that unless she struggles with injury or body changes, she'll gain a lot of confidence from 2004.

Hmm, Wagner's not doing Cohen's choreography. Zoueva and Shpilband are, and they were very effective working CoP for Belbin and Agosto last year. I think Cohen's chances might just have improved.

Ladies
1. Cohen
2. Kwan
3. Ando

Men
1. Joubert
2. Weiss
3. Lysacek

Pairs
1. Zhang & Zhang
2. Totmianina & Marinin
3. Petrova & Tikhonov

Dance
1. Belbin & Agosto
2. Grushina & Goncharov
3. Chait & Sakhnovski

Marjaana

Ilia Kulik photos & photolinks
http://koti.welho.com/mjylha2/index.html
Updated Sept. 2, 2004: http://koti.welho.com/mjylha2/index05c.html

Note: This is not really what I think will happen but rather some of the surprises, mixed in with wishful thinking, that this GP I think could bring us.
Ladies
1. Sasha - while Michelle's presence often makes her nervous, I think she feels comfortable with Grand Prix series, and she has experience with CoP.
2. Michelle I expect Michelle to deliver a good solid performance, but I think she may be rather tentative. After all, she didn't do the GP for 2 years (I'm not counting her one GP 2 years ago), this is her 1st time competing under CoP, AND this year is obviously her "I'm going to Turin" statement.
3. Ota A toss up between her and Ando, so I'll go with my favorite. I think as they are both young, it's hard to tell what improvements they've made over the summer.
Men
1. Joubert A safe bet, though a strong Weiss could bump him out.
2. Lysacek He has technique, he has style. Of course, it largely depends on the work he's been doing over the summer.
3. Griazev Comments similar to Lysacek, though Griazev is less consistent.
Dance
1. Grushina & Goncharov It could be B&A, but I think G&G have a maturity to their skating that B&A lack.
2. Belbin & Agosto They're good; at any given competition they can outskate G&G, but I think that on average they still have some way to go, especially in working on little things.
3. Kulikova & Novikov Sure, C&S would be a much safer bet. I just really want a T&T team out their. Plus, judges really haven't been kind to C&S since 2002 Worlds.
Pair
1. Totmianina & Marinin Safe bet.
2. Obertas & Slavnov OK, so most likely they won't even medal. I just so want a strong Moskvina team to balance out Bin Yao's Chinese pairs!
3. Don & Hunt Total wishful thinking, not even really a prediction. Of course, Z&Z and/or P&T will medal. I just want an American team up there, and I've been rather disappointed with I&B the last season.

hockeyfan228 said:

Hmm, Wagner's not doing Cohen's choreography. Zoueva and Shpilband are, and they were very effective working CoP for Belbin and Agosto last year. I think Cohen's chances might just have improved.

Click to expand...

This actually makes me feel much better. While I am not a big fan of Zueva choreography, she is certainly a much better fit for Sasha than Robin is. Let Robin concentrate on what she is supposedly good at -- consistency.