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Thread: [B]How Do You Predict the Competitions[/B]

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    [B]How Do You Predict the Competitions[/B]

    Just how do you predict the outcome of the various competitions in figure skating; cheesefest, gps, nats, worlds, olys?

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    As for me, I'm more of a fan than a prophet. I just go with my favorites to win everything!

    MM

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    preditions

    I will 2nd. that Mathman. I want my favorite to win everything.

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    Generally, I will rather base my predictions on the feeling who might win, and not on the fact whose skating appeals to me best. To me a prediction is something different than hoping a skater NN to win a competition.

    BTW, I wonder if there will be on this forum again a prediction competition to win e.g. a subscription for a skating magazine? That was great fun in past season!!!

    Marjaana

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    Last edited by Jaana; 07-17-2004 at 01:44 AM.

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    I pay close attention to the top skaters' comments before the performance (if they are available), skaters' placements going into the performance, skating order, body language & facial expressions. The attention to the comments before the event has worked well for me in other sports. In FS it is not that strong a predictor because I don't always get to see/hear what the skaters said and how. I go with my gut feeling a lot. Unfortunately it has not yielded very good results.
    Last edited by Vash01; 07-17-2004 at 05:57 PM. Reason: Clarification

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    I go by skater's comments and the way they look before skating. I knew Todd was gonna bomb in 1998 when he came out to do his LP and a heckler (it was very audible on TV) yelled " Do the quad Todd!" and Todd had this deer in the headlights reaction at that point which made me think that he heard the comment. I also knew he was gonna bomb the SP in SLC when he made the comment that he was going to see how the other guys did on their quads before deciding to put it in his program. Somehow I feel that you have to be committed to the SP you're going to do way before you watch other people skate.

    Skaters give off signals before they skate that you can tell whether they are going to do well or not. You can tell when they take their place confidently on the ice (ie Sale/Pelletier, Sarah Hughes, Tara Lipinksi).

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    I ask my Michelle Kwan hair doll who will win....and oddly enough, it is always Michelle! No, seriously, I don't like taking part in prediction threads just so I can see my favorite's name written in the number one slot. If I don't think my favorite will win, I certainly don't put them. I base my predictions on many things, but I focus mainly on how a skater performed in the 2-3 previous seasons. For example, I generally don't expect Michelle to be spectacular early on in the season. Why? She hasn't been at her strongest early on in the season (00-04) for quite some time and the trend doesn't seem to be changing much. Sasha, on the other hand, has been a bit more consistent during the opening months of the season. So, in my book, Sasha is currently the favorite to take the 2004 Skate America title. However, this method certainly isn't foolproof and doesn't apply to more eratic skaters or surprise performances, but it is better than just throwing things out randomly without thought. I also have to say that I don't have a problem with anyone predicting the outcome of a competition based solely on favorites. I don't choose to do it that way, but others might and I'm sure they have their reasons. If that is what one chooses to do, then so be it. I can read it if I want, and if I don't then I won't. At any rate, it is a far more positive thing to do and I'd rather read that than a bunch of meaningless threads talking about how fat Sarah Hughes has gotten or how Sasha is a giant b&#@h. These people are often young and excited (and sometimes new to this board and haven't yet seen just how things work). I think that a good balance is the best. I don't want to read 10 pages of over-analytical explanations just as I don't want to read 10 pages of "YAY!!!! MICHELLE WILL WIN CUZ SHE'S PURTY!". So, I think everyone should take part in what they want to take part in and do it their own way.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I liked the comments that posters said they just pick their favorites.

    I found interesting the comment that skaters may say something before the competition and the body language that ensues. it's more of an up close prediction on how the skater will perform not necessarily how they will place, and certainly not two weeks before the competition But still, very interesting. I think we can all look at skaters as they take the ice and see if there are any tell-tale signs of whether the skater will have a good or bad skate.

    The best way for me is to look at the past year's performances and compare them with the current performances leading up to the Worlds. The Worlds is the only competition I feel secure in predicting. (and I've been wrong many times. :( )

    Joe

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