- Joined
- Mar 26, 2014
No one knows the future for sure but one can still argue about cause and effect and, hence, attach some likelihood to predictions.
I watch junior grand prix for the last 3 years. And this year what started to shape in 2014 became cristal clear: it is about Russia and Japan now. Or Japan and Russia. Both countries have line-ups of contenders. I would argue that Russian field is deeper. Last year JGPF finalist Alisa Fedichkina and Sofia Samodurova who scored above 180 have not received the second assignment. Daria Panenkova who just showed locally clean 0+7 rippon only FP has not received a single assignment....
But realistically there is no USA, Canada, Korea, and China among the juniors who would get in Top-10 if there were no number limitations. So far I see the only exception: Eunsoo Lim of Korea who did not podium this time but who has the "it" factor. I was impressed actually same as I was impressed last year when saw Marin Honda for the first time.
So, how the top field is going to look like outside Russia and Japan after the Olympics?
USA: Ashley and Miraj will be likely gone. Polina? This year it will be more or less clear. If she does not break through I can hardly believe that she will become podium level skater. So, it will be just about Gracie.
Canada: the drill is known: "Canadian ladies". Of course, they are all individuals: Osmond, Chartrand, Daleman, their styles are different. But one thing is common: they are all inconsistent and all score around the same - not enough to get into top 5. And at the same time they are way above the rest in Canada with no promising juniors.
Korea: So Yun Park's moment was in Saitama. But she was not known. Since then, well, she is a lovely skater but she is not competitive with the top ladies. Between her and Eunsoo Lim there is a range of "good average skaters".
So a possible scenario after 2018 will be what we have now among the juniors: how many Japanese and Russians will get to GPF: 3+3 or 4+2 and who among them will get the podiums? Of course, as long as Gracie is around she will be a factor but how long will she be motivated?
And what will happen to the sport, to its popularity if it really becomes the standoff between Russia and Japan?
I watch junior grand prix for the last 3 years. And this year what started to shape in 2014 became cristal clear: it is about Russia and Japan now. Or Japan and Russia. Both countries have line-ups of contenders. I would argue that Russian field is deeper. Last year JGPF finalist Alisa Fedichkina and Sofia Samodurova who scored above 180 have not received the second assignment. Daria Panenkova who just showed locally clean 0+7 rippon only FP has not received a single assignment....
But realistically there is no USA, Canada, Korea, and China among the juniors who would get in Top-10 if there were no number limitations. So far I see the only exception: Eunsoo Lim of Korea who did not podium this time but who has the "it" factor. I was impressed actually same as I was impressed last year when saw Marin Honda for the first time.
So, how the top field is going to look like outside Russia and Japan after the Olympics?
USA: Ashley and Miraj will be likely gone. Polina? This year it will be more or less clear. If she does not break through I can hardly believe that she will become podium level skater. So, it will be just about Gracie.
Canada: the drill is known: "Canadian ladies". Of course, they are all individuals: Osmond, Chartrand, Daleman, their styles are different. But one thing is common: they are all inconsistent and all score around the same - not enough to get into top 5. And at the same time they are way above the rest in Canada with no promising juniors.
Korea: So Yun Park's moment was in Saitama. But she was not known. Since then, well, she is a lovely skater but she is not competitive with the top ladies. Between her and Eunsoo Lim there is a range of "good average skaters".
So a possible scenario after 2018 will be what we have now among the juniors: how many Japanese and Russians will get to GPF: 3+3 or 4+2 and who among them will get the podiums? Of course, as long as Gracie is around she will be a factor but how long will she be motivated?
And what will happen to the sport, to its popularity if it really becomes the standoff between Russia and Japan?
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