Grand Prix Analysis (Pairs), Winners/Losers

I must have tons of time on my hands, you guys (even though I don't because MIDTERMS HAHAHAHA). Anyway, as I've done for ladies and men, I'll do my GP analysis for pairs. This was by far the hardest one, you guys.

Skate America:
Favourites: Seguin/Bilodeau, Tarasova/Morozov, James/Cipres
Contenders: Marchei/Hotarek, Astakhova/Rogonov, Castelli/Tran

Skate Canada:
Favourites: Duhamel/Radford
Contenders: Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Yu/Zhang, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Dark Horses: Della Monica/Guarise, Bazarova/Deputat

Rostelecom Cup:
Favourites: Savchenko/Massot, Stolbova/Klimov
Contenders: Moore-Towers/Marinaro, Seguin/Bilodeau
Dark Horses: Marchei/Hotarek, Zabiiako/Enbert

Trophee de France:
Favourites: Savchenko/Massot
Contenders: James/Cipres, Tarasova/Morozov
Dark Horses: Zabiiako/Enbert, Castelli/Tran

Cup of China:
Favourites: ***Sui/Han***
Contenders: Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Peng/Jin, Yu/Zhang, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Dark Horses: Della Monica/Guarise
***Sui/Han's participation is unlikely due to recovery from Sui's injury.
*A replacement has not yet been named for Scimeca/Knierim.

NHK Trophy
Favourites: Duhamel/Radford, Stolbova/Klimov
Contenders: Moore-Towers/Marinaro, Peng/Jin
Dark Horses: Wang/Wang, Kayne/O'Shea


If there's a word I could use to describe the current pairs landscape, it would be TURMOIL.

After worlds last year, I would have separated the field into these tiers:
Tier 1: Duhamel/Radford, Sui/Han, Volosozhar/Trankov, Stolbova/Klimov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Savchenko/Massot
Tier 2: Seguin/Bilodeau, Tarasova/Morozov, Scimeca/Kneirim
Tier 3: Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Moore-Towers/Marinaro, James/Cipres, Peng/Zhang, Yu/Jin
Tier 4: Everyone else capable of scoring in the 170-180 range.

BUT- That list is basically garbage now for the Grand Prix, for a number of reasons:
1. Volosozhar/Trankov are gone for the year
2. Scimeca/Kneirim are gone for the GP
3. Sui/Han are likely out for the GP
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov skipped worlds and are off to a messy start at Ondrej Nepela
5. Stolbova/Klimov have not shown up anywhere yet this season
6. James/Cipres surprised with a breakthrough Autumn Classic showing
7. The Chinese teams played partner-swap and I have no idea what to expect from them now.

TL;DR: anything could happen at the GP this year. Expect lots of surprises.


Winners:
Duhamel/Radford: In an offseason filled with confusion, nothing happened to these two world champions. Skate Canada should be a walk in the park for them, especially being on home ice and taking into account Kavaguti/Smirnov's rough early form. NHK will either be a first or second place finish. Either way, the GPF is a lock.

Savchenko/Massot: The other top team who had a somewhat normal offseason. They were quite out of form at Nebelhorn but still scored over 200, and their programs this year are much improved. France should be a win, though Tarasova/Morozov can overtake them if they're perfect and Savchenko/Massot screw everything up. Rostelecom Cup is a difficult field where Savchenko/Massot should finish either first or second, though again, if they falter and Seguin/Bilodeau are perfect, they could finish third. The GPF looks good for now. They're basically winners only because almost every other top team is a question mark.

Iliushechkina/Moscovitch: Don't look now, but the GPF is actually a possibility for the Canadians. They'll be at home at Skate Canada, where a second place finish is very possible, with Yu/Zhang a new team and Kavaguti/Smirnov a question mark. They could theoretically skate for the win at a Cup of China field decimated by the loss of Sui/Han and Scimeca/Kneirim.

Yu/Zhang: They have the same GP assignments as I/M and thus, the same opportunities and dangers. They'll be at home in China too. Lots of question marks about how they'll fare together in the first season.

Kavaguti/Smirnov: They had a terrible start to the season, losing by 12 points to Tarasova/Morozov, but they have the same GPs as I/M and Y/Z. Second and first is not out of the question and would put them in the GPF.

Seguin/Bilodeau: The consistent Canadians are co-favourites with Tarasova/Morozov to win Skate America with the absence of a big name. Rostelecom is a more difficult field with Stolbova/Klimov and Savchenko/Massot present, but they'll finish at worst third. Stolbova/Klimov are a question mark, and Savchenko/Massot are off to a nervy start, so it could easily be a higher finish than third for Seguin/Bilodeau.

Tarasova/Morozov: They're co-favourites with Seguin/Bilodeau to win Skate America. A second place finish is likely at France, though any podium finish is plausible. They have a slightly easier second assignment than Seguin/Bilodeau.


Losers:
Moore-Towers/Marinaro: They have two really difficult assignments: Rostelecom, where they'll face Stolbova/Klimov, Seguin/Bilodeau, and Savchenko/Massot, and NHK where they'll face Stolbova/Klimov, Duhamel/Radford, and Peng/Jin. They have tougher draws then compatriots Iliushechkina/Moscovitch for sure.

Peng/Jin: Their draw isn't BAD, it's just worse than Yu/Zhang's. Cup of China is a wide open field that features both Chinese teams, but Peng/Jin's second assignment, NHK Trophy, is imo harder than Yu/Zhang's other GP assignment, Skate Canada. Peng/Jin have to face Stolbova/Klimov and Duhamel/Radford, so the best they can hope for is third, while Yu/Zhang could finish second at Skate Canada (or third, or fourth).

Stolbova/Klimov: Again, their draw isn't BAD, but it's worse than Duhamel/Radford's and Savchenko/Massot's, because Stolbova and Klimov don't really have an event that they can be pretty sure of winning. They have to face the Canadians in Japan and the Germans in Russia. I'm also worried about their lack of competition outings early on in the season and I wonder if everything is ok physically. I still expect them to make the GPF.

Every top team out with injury. For... obvious reasons.


Bottom Line: The GPF is wide open this year in pairs. Duhamel/Radford and Savchenko/Massot are locks, but everything after that is still to be decided. If I were betting, I'd fill out the other 4 spots with Stolbova/Klimov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Seguin/Bilodeau, and Tarasova/Morozov. But three other teams in consideration as well are Iliushechkina/Moscovitch and the two new Chinese teams. It should be a really fun GP series to follow, because pairs seems like the discipline where there could be the most shockers and surprise GPF entries.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed this mini-series I did. (I'm not doing dance btw) I'm excited for the GP and I hope you all are too!

Obviously, Sui/Han will not skate in Cup of China, it was said in some interview their first competition will be after New Year, no point in including them in GP predicitions/analysis. So the biggest winners are those who got assigments in Skate America and Cup of China. The biggest losers are Stolbova/Klimov having to face Savchenko/Massot in Rostelecom Cup and then Duhamel/Radford in NHK Trophy. They still have a chance to qualify to GPF though.

I think GPF will look something like that: Duhamel/Radford, Savchenko/Massot, Tarasova/Morozov, Stolbova/Klimov, Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Kavaguti/Smirnov

Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed this mini-series I did. (I'm not doing dance btw) I'm excited for the GP and I hope you all are too![/QUOTE]

What's wrong with dance?? :sarcasm:

dreamsk8 said:

Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed this mini-series I did. (I'm not doing dance btw) I'm excited for the GP and I hope you all are too!

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What's wrong with dance?? :sarcasm:[/QUOTE]

Nothing wrong with dance, I simply don't watch it enough to give a fair analysis.

I've been lurking as a non-user for a while now and just made an account to say thank you for all your analyses! They have been really fun to follow, and I hope you enjoy the GP season amidst your midterms haha

Sent from my HTC_PN071 using Tapatalk

klutzonice said:

I've been lurking as a non-user for a while now and just made an account to say thank you for all your analyses! They have been really fun to follow, and I hope you enjoy the GP season amidst your midterms haha

Sent from my HTC_PN071 using Tapatalk

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Aww, thanks! Welcome to GS!

Kavaguti/Smirnov usually pull it together for their individual Grand Prix events. In fact, they've never finished lower than 2nd at an individual Grand Prix since 2008. That's pretty amazing. I will predict them for 2nd at Skate Canada and 1st at Cup of China right now.

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Savchenko/Massot
3. Tarasova/Morozov
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov
5. Stolbova/Klimov
6. Seguin/Bilodeau

Nothing wrong with dance, I simply don't watch it enough to give a fair analysis.[/QUOTE]

Oh you should but your Grand Prix Analysis Pairs is really nice but no dark horses for Skate America? what about Kayne/O'Shea or Denney/Frazier?

enjoying your great GP posts !

Blades of Passion said:

Kavaguti/Smirnov usually pull it together for their individual Grand Prix events. In fact, they've never finished lower than 2nd at an individual Grand Prix since 2008. That's pretty amazing. I will predict them for 2nd at Skate Canada and 1st at Cup of China right now.

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Savchenko/Massot
3. Tarasova/Morozov
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov
5. Stolbova/Klimov
6. Seguin/Bilodeau

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from your keyboard to skating God's ears!

tho as I keep saying
the mere fact that Yuko just keeps skating after what she's been through is a miracle & the inspiration for the youth!

1 of the thing that intereast me the most is prospects of Peng/Zhang & Yu/Jin

As MT/M withdraw COR and S/K withdraw 2GPs.
It change a lot.

Skate America:
Favourites: Seguin/Bilodeau, Tarasova/Morozov, James/Cipres
Contenders: Marchei/Hotarek, Astakhova/Rogonov, Castelli/Tran

Skate Canada:
Favourites: Duhamel/Radford
Contenders: Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Yu/Zhang, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Dark Horses: Della Monica/Guarise, Bazarova/Deputat

Rostelecom Cup:
Favourites: Savchenko/Massot
Contenders: Seguin/Bilodeau
Dark Horses: Marchei/Hotarek, Zabiiako/Enbert

Trophee de France:
Favourites: Savchenko/Massot
Contenders: James/Cipres, Tarasova/Morozov
Dark Horses: Zabiiako/Enbert, Castelli/Tran

Cup of China:
Contenders: Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, Peng/Jin, Yu/Zhang, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Dark Horses: Della Monica/Guarise,Wang/Wang


NHK Trophy
Favourites: Duhamel/Radford
Contenders: Moore-Towers/Marinaro, Peng/Jin
Dark Horses: Wang/Wang, Kayne/O'Shea

D/R and S/M are locked.
S/B and T/M should no problem.
Last 2 spots are open to K/S Y/Z P/J J/C I/M

With Stolbova/Klimov out, I think the last GPF spot is a fight between Iliushechkina/Moscovitch and Yu/Zhang. They are at the same events even. Whichever of them finishes 2nd at Cup of China will make the GPF, unless there are peculiarities at other events.

Blades of Passion said:

With Stolbova/Klimov out, I think the last GPF spot is a fight between Iliushechkina/Moscovitch and Yu/Zhang. They are at the same events even. Whichever of them finishes 2nd at Cup of China will make the GPF, unless there are peculiarities at other events.

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Peng/Jin arguably have an easier draw than Yu/Zhang now, with S/K and M-T/M out of NHK. Y/Z still have to face D/R, K/S, and I/M in Canada. Should be interesting to which Chinese team can get into the GPF, if any.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Peng/Jin with the NHK assignment. I love their SP this season. I like Wang/Wang too and they have a chance now as well. Will be interesting to see which Chinese team steps up.